Rutgers is at home and has a functional offense & Iowa has Mark Gronowski, who looks like he's trying to throw with hooves. The Scarlet Knights defensive achilles heel appears to be pass defense and I don't anticipate the Hawkeyes to be able to take advantage. Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis has played incredible so far this year, but don't be mistaken I fully expect him to throw to the wrong team in this game. I just see this as a nice showcase game for Greg Schiano on a Friday night in Piscataway, and I don't fear anything Iowa has on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the home Knights money line.

I love TCU in this spot, at home against an SMU team making their second straight road trip, even if it's only a 35 mile drive. SMU went to Missouri State last week and looked sluggish, committing two turnovers, 12 penalties for 130 yards and won a 28-10 snoozer. The Mustangs pass defense is 127th in CFB in success rate, and Frogs QB Josh Hoover is a favorite of mine who's balled out early this season. I make TCU a 9.5 point favorite, so at a TD or less I'm all over the Horned Frogs at home.

My top two power rated Big 12 teams playing a showcase game on Big Noon Kickoff, I'm excited to watch this one. I'm high on both teams, but Texas Tech needs to prove they can go into Salt Lake City and beat a good looking Kyle Whittingham team. If you haven't watched the Utes yet, get ready to learn some QB Devon Dampier who's putting up some big numbers in familiar OC Jason Beck's offense (both came from New Mexico last year). The Red Raiders are putting up video game numbers against Bob & Joe's Haircut College, so the Utes defense should provide a much tougher challenge. Hard to gauge numbers at this point as both have feasted on bad teams, but I'll take what I believe to be the better QB and better coach at home.

It's getting late early in Gainesville, and Miami looks like a top team in college football. Gator QB DJ Lagway looks lost and this Hurricane defensive line is the last thing I'd want to see if I were struggling. Florida is coming off a pretty devastating loss at LSU, and a 2nd straight road trip looks like it could be the breaking point. I'm so high on this Miami roster than I'm willing to lay more than a TD with Mario Cristobal in a big game. I also make the number Miami -10, so that gives me confidence in that dreaded hook. The Hurricanes just have too much up front on both lines.

Western Kentucky is coming off a bye after a drubbing at the hands of Toledo. Nevada is my #128th power rated team, and have a QB I like fading in Chubba Prurdy (1 TD, 4 INT). The Hilltoppers have one of my favorite QB's in Maverick McIvor playing at home. The Hilltoppers have not been able to run the ball, which is a concern, but still average 39 points per game to Nevada's 14.7. I make this WKU -15.5, so I'll lay the 10.5 and take my shot.

Teams traveling out the west coast have had a rough time (see BC vs Stanford), and this game looks even worse kicking off at 11:00PM EST or 2:00AM East Lansing time. I took USC -14 at open and don't love giving more than 17 points, so no best bet. But am interested to see because the USC offense has looked unstoppable at home. Now, on the road, Purdue was only down 13 to this SC team in the 2nd half before throwing a pick six to open the flood gates. But I keep coming back to the fact that USC has been a completely different team at home, and the travel/time for Sparty looks like a brutal spot.

I got in early on the Hoosiers at -3, so can't call this a best bet now at 4.5, especially now with the news IU RB Lee Beebe is out for the season. This is a prove it game for me for both teams, and Indiana has feasted on cupcakes while Illinois did go on the road and beat Duke, although I'm still trying to determine what that really means. Still, I think IU has too many weapons and a QB that is running the operation perfectly so far. I do fear the fact that the Hoosiers have yet to be punched in the mouth, and Illini QB Luke Altmyer is also one of my favorites. But I'm betting the home team giving 3 with the more options on offense.

Here we go again with road favorites. But Tennessee has to prove this to me, Georgia has owned them winning 6 straight and none of the games were within one score. The Vols will still be without their top two CBs, and the win over Syracuse would have been viewed differently had the Orange needed a comeback to beat UConn the week before. The Dawgs have not looked impressive, yet, and I do question the QB play. However, through two games the Voles are 110th in Run Def Success, so I'm betting the Kirby death march starts in Knoxville this weekend. Once the number got down to UGA -3.5, I pulled the trigger.

I want to be wrong about this one, badly. But Texas A&M has the bodies and the weapons to beat Notre Dame. QB Marcel Reed has looked like a new passer this year, to go along with his dynamic running ability. Notre Dame looked timid in its opening loss at Miami, and the OL that's supposed to be tops in the nation could not spring Love & Price all night. The DL allowed Miami to run enough and the Def Success numbers were just poor. Irish QB CJ Carr looks like a hit, but he's making his second ever start and first at home. I'll take the Aggies and the points, and I will lose happily should I be wrong.

This is a buy low spot on the Gators for me. If you read my weekly review, the loss to South Florida doesn't change my opinion of Florida, I still think they have a very good defense and a dynamic QB. With Napier and staff now back on the ole hot seat and the schedule looking like a walk to the execution chamber, I'm looking for the Gators to play their best game vs LSU. For as much as I think the Tigers offense has, they haven't shown much in the first two games, and they have injury & depth concerns on their OL right now. Tigers Run Off #'s are ugly, 124th in rush success, 121st in OL yards (Gators are 33rd in both). I think this is a low scoring slugfest (and under bet as well) that comes down to the finish, and I'll take +9.5 points in that scenario.

This is another buy low spot for a desperate team. The Hokies have lost two straight, but against SEC competition. They have blown out the Monarchs two straight years, and through two games ODU is 128th in defensive run success, allowing 52%. The Hokies will get right by running the ball and limiting Kyron Drones mistakes, and getting after ODU QB Colten Joseph, who has skills but seems to lack much help this year.

My old man had a betting strategy called the BAT theory, Bet Against Trash. I'm so low on Akron that I'll lay over a TD with this UAB team, even if Trent Dilfer is still their head coach. Akron is simply not an FBS football team. Their offense is the worse in CFB as they've yet to score a point through 2 games, and the defense isn't much better. Poor Zip QB Ben Finley is trying, but he has absolutely nothing around him. UAB has shown a competent offense with UTEP transfer Jevon Jackson at RB and QB Kitna having a few options to throw to. The Blazers defense is horrid, but Akron is the one team that has shown no ability to take advantage of it. Lay the points.

Wake Forest is a bad football team, bottom 5 in the P4 for me. The Jake Dickert hire is a good one, but he doesn't have the horses to run this race. QB Robby Ashford is a go against, and Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey is must see TV. NC State has their flaws and UVA gashed them on the ground at times, but the Deacons don't have the same type of weapons. The Wake defense has played well so far, but this is a step up in opposition. I bet this as NC St -6.5 at open, so I can't call it a best bet now that it's over 7.

Another game I bet at open with GT +7.5, so I can't call it best bet material at this price. But I've seen enough of Clemson to know they can't run the ball, and that's all Brent Key and QB Haynes King/RB Jamal Haynes want to do. The Tigers offensive numbers are bad across the board, and the Def Success numbers show they aren't getting off the field enough. The under is also worth a look, but my numbers don't quite make enough value to pull that trigger.

I make Ole Miss a 14.5 favorite, and Kiffin is one of my favorite coaches to bet on with his reputation of covering numbers in games he has a decided advantage. Ole Miss should be fired up to avenge last year's awful loss to the Wildcats, and I have zero faith that Zach Calzada can keep Kentucky in this. The Cats defense is nasty, but the Rebs pull away in the 2nd half. Grab the Rebs under 10 if/when you can.

The Cy-Hawk rivarly has scored 40+ points one time since 2017, but I'm thinking this one goes over. I'm a big fan of Rocco Becht, and was high on Mark Gronowski until I saw the tape vs Albany. The Iowa run game looks decent though, and Iowa State's own run game looks improved this year. Maybe throw in a D/ST TD for good measure, but I'm going over on this total under the key number of 42. Projecting totals early is more art than science, but I make this one 47 for nearly a TD of value.

This may be the last shot against Virginia Tech for a while, but this is simply a principle play for me. Kyron Drones was worse than even I expected last week, the run game does not scare me. Vandy's Cro-Magnon offense is not fun to defend, and I think the Hokie defense will eventually wear down playing their 2nd SEC team in six days. Brent Pry has a historically awful record in one score games, and I make the Dores a 3.5 point favorite by my numbers.

I am very low on Jacksonville State under new HC Charles Kelly, replacing nearly everyone on the roster this year. Liberty lost to the Gamecocks last year, so Jamey Chadwell's bunch should be fired up to play spoiler in their home opener. I like QB Ethan Vasko, and I think the Flames have the best defense in Conference USA. I'll admit that Jax St's performance vs UCF last week has given me pause, especially finding running room with Cam Cook and QB Gavin Wimsatt. But I'm sticking to my guns and trusting the more talented and experienced team will get this done. NOTE: I took Liberty -6, I would not take them if this gets over 7.

Betting Tulsa as a road favorite is gross. But I'm so low on New Mexico State and I think the books catch up on that after this week. Tulsa QB Kirk Francis looks adequate, and RB Dominic Richardson and the run game was decent in the Golden Hurricane's opener (vs Abilene Christian). But this is more about the Aggies, who's own QB Logan Fife has been a go against for me for a while now and doesn't appear to have any run support. I'll lay under a TD and see if one of my lowest rated coaches in Tony Sanchez can prove me wrong.

I make this total 56, and I like what I see out of both offenses so far. Healthy Jalon Daniels is fun to watch, and Beau Pribula looked good in his opener as well. Both run games have looked decent so far, and while I like the Tigers defense, the Jayhawks will have to prove it to me vs a real offense. This is a large step up in competition for both, so I don't expect anything near the numbers these two have thrown up so far, but I see a back and forth affair that should take it over this number.

I took Oklahoma -2.5 early, so it's not fair to call this a best bet now that its up over the -4 range. This is a feel bet, true freshman on the road vs a Brent Venables defense doesn't sound like fun. OU either tried to showcase Mateer in week one, or their run game is really that bad and this bet is dead. I'm thinking the playbook looks very different vs Michigan than it did vs Illinois State, and I'll pay to see differently.

I'm high on South Florida this year, and think they could rise up and beat Boise if they aren't on their game in the opener. HC Alex Golesh's go-go offense can get humming in a hurry with a healthy QB Byrum Brown. I'm opening this dynamic slate with a 1/2 unit ML play.

I love this 2025 Georgia Tech team and think they take care of a rebuilding Colorado team even on the road. The Haynes duo (QB King, RB Jamal) will ground down the Buffalo defense, and a veteran Bees defense get the better of Kaidon Salter enough to leave Boulder with a W.

I love Utah in this matchup, but I bet this in April at -1.5. I think Utah's OL will own UCLA and the world will get to know QB Devon Dampier. Even on the road I make this line Utah -5, so as long as it doesn't touch 7 I think it's a bet.

This is more a fade Cal bet than anything, but I think the Beavers are a bowl team and Cal has leaders talking about dropping the football program. OSU QB Maalik Murphy isn't going to wow anyone, but he's steady and has a 1K back in Anthony Hankerson to hand off and carve up a bad Bear defense. I don't use the term locks with 18-22 year old kids, but man this one feels easy.

While the number is spot on with my projections, I like this matchup for Clemson. Their DL should be able to attack LSU's new OTs & Klubnik to Williams, Wesco and Moore should have fun vs this LSU secondary. I'm long on LSU this year, but Brian Kelly is 0-3 in openers at LSU, make it 0-4.

I think ND wins this game, but the unit I trust the most is this Irish defense. With CJ Carr making his debut in what is sure to be a hornets nest, I think the under is the best play. I think Miami's defense will be much improved and both teams will look to the ground game in what looks like a rainy forecast.

I've been pretty open about my thoughts on the 33rd NFL team experiment in Chapel Hill. I also love TCU QB Josh Hoover in his 3rd year under OC Kendall Briles with a great WR duo in Eric McAlister & Jordan Dwyer to throw to. I make TCU a 7 point road favorite.

I'm gonna eat these words, but I'm a believer in Auburn in 2025. Road favorites are bad bets, so I'm trying to pick my spots and just watch on this one. Baylor has started slow under Aranda, losing their last 3 FBS openers. I make this game Auburn -5.5.

Once again I like the road team here. I'm not sold on Ohio State's DC Matt Patricia against Sark in game one, and the while I believe Buckeyes are going to be a dominant team by November, I think the Horns get them early while they sort out all the replacements from last year.

I mistakenly did not bet Bama early when it was near a TD spread. Bama should roll here, especially with FSU QB Castellanos running his mouth over the summer. But I have a lot of road bets already, and this is another with a brand new starting QB. I don't think it matters, but missing the best line, inexperienced QB on to road with what was an inconsistent Bama team last year, I'm laying back and watching and likely regretting my miss.