Indiana football is an unstoppable machine... a line that would have come with medication just two years ago. But in this new CFB world we live in, the Hoosiers are a dominant football team. Miami has had a great run to the title game and is indeed a great team themselves, this just looks like they're running into a buzz saw they cannot stop. If there's a defense that could give Indiana issues, the Hurricanes surely have it. But I don't trust Miami's offense to be able to score enough to keep up in this game. Indiana is playing as close to perfect football as I've seen. They don't commit penalties, they don't turn the ball over, they're mauling everyone on both lines of scrimmage and QB Mendoza has played brilliantly. My numbers make this line Indiana -9.5, and I'll be looking at alt lines for the Hoosiers in this game as well. No knock on Miami, Indiana is just too good and I might as well profit off of it. Laying the 8, and likely more.

A rematch of week 7 in which Indiana beat Oregon 30-20. It was a close game in which the Hoosiers outplayed the Ducks in nearly all phases of the game, although by tight margins. Neither team ran the ball very effectively, but Oregon had a much rougher go of it. Dante Moore threw two picks in the game, but Fernando Mendoza also threw a costly pick six that tied the game in the 4th quarter. I just see the way these two teams are playing right now, and I have to take Indiana. They're playing near flawless ball on both sides, while Oregon's offense looked stuck in mud, admittedly against what I think is a great Texas Tech defense. Oregon's defense played fantastic as well, and they certainly wouldn't shock me if they won this game. Indiana is still incredibly healthy for a team just playing it's 15th game, and they are simply playing efficient murder ball. They are incredibly physical and don't give an opponent any breaks via turnovers, penalties, missed assignments. To beat IU, you have to be patient & efficient, while also able to make the big plays when you get opportunities, which won't be very often. I'll lay the 3.5 points.

You could honestly convince me of any outcome in this game, so take that under consideration. This is a surprising matchup for a CFP semifinal, but Miami is playing great defense, and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has been the MVP of the postseason so far. I do have a lot of questions, can Miami's offense keep up if Ole Miss finds answers to the Hurricane defense? Can Kewan Lacy find running room against this Miami D, and keep DE's Bain and Mesidor off of Chambliss? Is Carson Beck able to play keep up if necessary? Can Christobal continue to rewrite his 'in game' coaching reputation? Can Pete Golding really win three straight CFP games to start his head coaching career? The answers to all of this and more will determine who wins the game. As for me, I always lean toward the team that can play great defense, so I'm taking Miami in the game, and I'll lay the 3.5 points. History says take the over in the Fiesta Bowl, FWIW, and I lean that way even with the way Miami's defense is playing. I just think Ole Miss will score enough to force Miami into responses.

I make this line Ohio St -6, so my numbers do see a bit of value in this play. Miami's defense is legit, and are playing at a very high level especially along the DL with DE's Bain and Mesidor. Ohio State's running game has improved, but isn't going to strike fear in the Hurricanes DC Corey Hetherman. Their passing game is a whole other animal, with Smith, Tate, Inniss and TE Max Klare. So the name of the game for Miami has to be pressure, hit Julian Sayin early, often and violently. The reason I can't call this a great bet is Miami's offense just isn't all that good, as displayed in the game vs A&M. However, their OL still has greatness in them, and if they can pave the way for Fletcher & company enough to let Miami take some shots to Malachi Toney, they can score enough to keep this close if their defense has a day. Take the points and pray Miami can find and cover #4.

I'm going slightly against numbers, which say this game is a pick 'em. I just believe Oregon is the better team with the better head coach and the better QB, and that makes the difference to me in these games. Dante Moore has been playing well, and should get some real weapons back to go along with freaky TE Kenyon Sadiq. The Ducks offense starts with a powerful running game lead by a really good OL and three RBs that can all make a defense pay. The Texas Tech defense has been dominant, but we've only seen them play vs the Big 12, and this feels like another class in Oregon. The Red Raiders DL is extremely good, don't get me wrong. But Texas Tech's offense has been suspect in scoring opportunities, and I just don't trust QB Behren Morton in this spot. Gimme the Ducks as long as it's under a FG.

Alabama is only hear because they got matched up vs Oklahoma in the first round. The Tide can prove me wrong by winning this game, but I don't see it and will pay to find out. Bama's run game has been awful all year, and it should have cost them before we got to this. Now Indiana has a chance to do what would've been unthinkable just two years ago, dominate the Tide in the Rose Bowl. And I expect the Hoosiers and coach Cig to do just that, as this is another program defining moment for IU and a legacy moment for their HC. IU's Heisman winning QB Fernando Mendoza has an OL that's playing well, and weapons at RB and WR to move the ball consistenly on this Tide defense. Alabama is going to have to get extremely creative to keep out of obvious passing downs, which is where I see their eventual undoing. One thing I am keeping a keen eye on, Indiana has been extremely fortunate with injury luck, as they have stayed relatively healthy which means more to them than anyone else left in the CFP, because the drop off in some areas is steep with their depth. If they start losing bodies in a physical game, that could make a huge difference. Without that, gimme the Indiana Hoosiers to win and cover the Rose Bowl... still doesn't feel real.

I'm going against my numbers that say UGA should be a one point fav here, I'm going square here and taking Georgia. I think the Dawgs defense has been playing lights out football, and I expect them to be the difference early and often in this game. I like the idea of betting on Kirby Smart vs Pete Golding coaching in the second game of his career on this huge stage. Remember, Georgia playing in New Orleans last year in this round and got bodied by Notre Dame, the Dawgs will be breathing fire to atone for that performance. Rebs QB Trinidad Chambliss is really good, and will make some plays along with RB Kewan Lacy and a gaggle of WR's. But Georgia will look to pound on that Rebs soft Run Defense (#82 in CFB) and grind out methodical drives, leaving Ole Miss scrambling to keep up. Eventually the Rebels will turn it over and lose pace. Really like the under 56.5 in this game, truly love the 1st half under 28 that you can find at certain shops.