Alabama at Missouri - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -3.5 (50.5) (-165) Open: -5.5
Alabama 27 - Missouri: 24 (SEC)

Crimson Tide (11 - 4) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 3.7 (#11)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

MIZ coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -3.5 (SP+ ALA -0.5)
Projected Score: ALA: 27 - MIZ: 24 (51)
ALA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ALA Travel: 477 miles

Tigers (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (37 - 24)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALA Players
MIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alabama's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Alabama at Florida State	-13.5	50.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/6	Alabama vs UL Monroe	-34.0	50.0	W 73 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Alabama vs Wisconsin	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Alabama at Georgia	+2.5	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Alabama vs Vanderbilt	-13.5	58.5	W 30 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Alabama at Missouri	-3.5	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/18	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	60.5	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Alabama at South Carolina	-11.5	47.5	W 29 - 22	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Alabama vs LSU	-10.5	49.5	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Alabama vs Oklahoma	-6.5	45.5	L 21 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/22	Alabama vs Eastern Illinois	-50.5	57.5	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Alabama at Auburn	-6.5	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 12/6	Alabama vs Georgia	+2.5	47.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/19	Alabama at Oklahoma	+1.5	42.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Thu 1/1	Alabama vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 3 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Missouri's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Missouri vs Central Arkansas	-38.5	52.5	W 61 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Missouri vs Kansas	-5.5	51.0	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri vs Louisiana	-27.5	47.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri vs South Carolina	-10.0	48.5	W 29 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/27	Missouri vs Massachusetts	-44.5	57.5	W 42 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Missouri vs Alabama	+3.5	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Missouri at Auburn	-1.5	43.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Missouri at Vanderbilt	+3.0	52.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Missouri vs Texas A&M	+7.0	48.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Missouri vs Mississippi State	-7.5	50.5	W 49 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri at Oklahoma	+4.5	42.5	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri at Arkansas	-4.5	54.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/27	Missouri vs Virginia	-4.0	43.5	L 7 - 13	U	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)	29.5	45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)	19.2	38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)	30.2	47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)	18.9	42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Offense	13	29.5	26.3	45.2%	4.71	1.4	20	390	169	222	4.8	53%	47%	45%	45%	16%	.23
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	20.6	40.6%	3.38	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	39%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Defense	13	19.2	23.7	37.2%	2.85	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	38%	37%	18%	.05
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	39.5	44%	3.91	0.7	19	361	159	202	4.3	53%	47%	47%	41%	11%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alabama	13	27:39	19.7	49%	62%	7.1	66.3	1.4	2.1	4.8	1.8	0	29.8
Missouri	13	30:28	19.5	47%	53%	5.2	46	0.7	1.2	5	1.9	2	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Offense	13	53% (49)	45% (52)	35.2	168.8	4.8	41 (5)	.21 (28)	2.75 (112)	76% (44)	11% (102)	1.12 (12)
MIZ Defense	13	53% (91)	42% (57)	-	-	-	-	.01 (18)	2.75 (29)	73% (64)	12% (22)	0.92 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Defense	13	52% (87)	38% (15)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (8)	2.81 (38)	76% (86)	10% (61)	0.87 (19)
MIZ Offense	13	53% (48)	47% (28)	37.1	158.7	4.3	25 (41)	.12 (73)	3.04 (67)	79% (26)	8% (31)	0.9 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Offense	13	47% (84)	45% (31)	16.2	24.7	221.6	9	13.7	16 (87)	10 (63)	.27 (59)	1.5 (78)	28% (21)	31% (77)	.3 (83)	4% (20)	2.3 (4)
MIZ Defense	13	47% (47)	39% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.23 (65)	1.6 (70)	32% (61)	27% (20)	.2 (27)	6% (54)	2 (65)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Defense	13	48% (49)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.12 (22)	1.6 (86)	35% (21)	29% (38)	.25 (44)	8% (15)	2 (56)
MIZ Offense	13	47% (85)	41% (80)	17.8	28.5	202.2	7.1	11.4	12 (118)	5 (6)	.26 (66)	1.6 (69)	30% (49)	33% (52)	.39 (44)	4% (10)	2.1 (49)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 23.11 #8
Alabama's Offense Rating: 21.71 #21
Alabama's Defense Rating: -1.40 #5
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 73% #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 3.7
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #20
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.11 Missouri: 15.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 14.8 Missouri: 14.4

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 15.335 #39
Missouri's Offense Rating: 12.08 #73
Missouri's Defense Rating: 0.81 #12
2025 Talent Rating: 856.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 32 #21
Missouri's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Missouri's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #21
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #47
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 27
Missouri 24

Projected Total Points: 51

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Missouri	24	Alabama	27	Alabama -3.5	Missouri	50.5	Over
2024	10/26	Alabama	34	Missouri	0	Alabama -16	Alabama	51.5	Under
2020	09/26	Missouri	19	Alabama	38	Alabama -29.0	Missouri	56.0	Over
2018	10/13	Alabama	39	Missouri	10	Alabama -28	Alabama	72.5	Under
2014	12/06	Missouri	13	Alabama	42	Alabama -3	Alabama	0
2012	10/13	Missouri	10	Alabama	42

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri	0	2	2 Overs
Alabama	6	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 2	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2

(#8) ALA at (#39) MIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALA	MIZ
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#39
SP+SP+	#20	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#17	#7
OffenseOff	#36	#13
DefenseDef	#17	#7
Spec TeamsST	#27	#9
TalentTal	#6	#38
Blue ChipsBC%	#2	#21

Alabama Notes(11/16) Run Off exposed vs OU. OG'd OU but TO's costly
(10/15) RB1 Jam Miller ? for Tenn game
(10/11) Avg 140 yds rush pg with Jam Miller, 80 yds without
(10/6) Leads CFB in TO margin +9, Simpson a Heisman fav
(10/3) Have scored on 1st drive in 3 of 4 games (Scripted)
(10/1) DE/LB Qua Russaw out weeks (foot), big depth hit
(9/14) QB Simpson looks good, Run Off just bad?
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
Alabama Injury Report

Missouri Notes(12/28) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (30-67)
(12/21) Hired Chip Lindsey at OC (Mich). Awful hire
(11/27) HC Drinkwitz extended, makes almost 11 mil per
(11/21) QB Pribula will start vs OU
(11/16) Killed MSU, but QB3 Zollers ain't ready. Run Off++
(10/22) Starting Kicker inj, Fr R Meyer replacement
(10/10) OT Cayden Green returns for Bama game, big add
(9/21) Big W over SCar, Run Off good, Run Def great
(9/8) QB Pribula a good passer, a dynamic weapon
(9/8) RBs Hardy & Roberts are a great duo
(8/28) QB Horn looks done for the year (leg)
(7/20) DBs really good w/ Catalon + Hall portal adds
Missouri Injury Report

Alabama on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	MIZ Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#36	#7
SuccessSuc	#34	#54
ExplosiveExp	#34	#51
PPAPPA	#44	#32
PowerPwr	#21	#12
SP+SP+	#36	#10
Pts POPPO	#8	#28
HavocHav	#63	#32

Alabama Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#93	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#57
Run ExplRExp	#12	#43
PPAExp	#28	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#44	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#46
TackleTak	-	#17

Alabama Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#78	#70
PPAExp	#59	#65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#9	#6
F7 HavocF7	#102	#22
DB HavocDB	#20	#54

Missouri on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	ALA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#13	#17
SuccessSuc	#54	#12
ExplosiveExp	#114	#47
PPAPPA	#70	#8
PowerPwr	#73	#5
SP+SP+	#47	#11
Pts POPPO	#68	#5
HavocHav	#9	#41

Missouri Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#11	#17
Run SuccessRSuc	#28	#15
Run ExplRExp	#100	#19
PPAExp	#73	#8
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	#67	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#25	#53
TackleTak	-	#24

Missouri Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#86
PPAExp	#66	#22
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#127
F7 HavocF7	#31	#61
DB HavocDB	#10	#15

Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Alabama 3.5 (50.5)
Alabama won at Missouri this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Missouri last year (27-24)
Alabama beat Missouri in 2024 (34-0)

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ty Simpson	305	473	65%	3567	28	5	7.5
Austin Mack	24	32	75%	228	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Miller	130	504	3	3.9	24
Daniel Hill	75	284	6	3.8	30
Kevin Riley	59	224	2	3.8	22
AK Dear	19	140	3	7.4	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Germie Bernard	64	862	7	13.5	43
Ryan Williams	49	689	4	14.1	75
Isaiah Horton (Tr)	42	511	8	12.2	37
Lotzeir Brooks	32	441	2	13.8	53

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deontae Lawson	80	5	2	1	4
Justin Jefferson	79	7	3	2	5
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	54	5	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Yhonzae Pierre	52	15	8	8	1
Lebbeus Overton	40	6	4	4	1
Justin Jefferson	79	7	3	2	5
Keon Keeley	13	3	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Zabien Brown	39	3	0	0	6
Justin Jefferson	79	7	3	2	5

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)	182	270	67%	1946	11	9	7.2
Matt Zollers	47	88	53%	503	4	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmad Hardy (Tr)	256	1649	16	6.4	72
Jamal Roberts	124	753	6	6.1	63
Beau Pribula (Tr)	95	297	6	3.1	49
Marquise Davis	34	200	2	5.9	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr. (Tr)	66	732	1	11.1	50
Donovan Olugbode	30	401	2	13.4	34
Marquis Johnson	28	345	2	12.3	49
Joshua Manning	29	318	2	11.0	34

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Trotter (Tr)	84	13	2	7	1
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	0	7
Santana Banner (Tr)	59	1	0	0	3
Marvin Burks Jr.	49	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damon Wilson Jr.	22	9	9	13	2
Zion Young	42	16	7	14	2
Chris McClellan	48	8	6	6	2
Darris Smith	15	6	5	11	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	0	7
Dreyden Norwood	24	2	0	0	5
Daylan Carnell	41	7	0	1	4