Michigan at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo   Michigan Wolverines at USC Trojans  USC logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
USC -3 (58.5) (-166)  Open: -1.5
USC 31 - Michigan: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
USC coming off BYE
Our Line: USC -4  (SP+ USC -5)
Projected Score: MICH: 26 - USC: 30 (57)
USC Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MICH Travel: 1947 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)27.541% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)20.438% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)35.852% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)2344% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense1327.526.440.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1
USC Defense132317.943.8%3.641.2 - - - - - 46%53%44%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1320.424.438.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
USC Offense1335.84348.4%3.761.4214081382695.540%60%52%46%18%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
USC1328:1221.345%47%5.3461.41.23.91.5133.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)
USC Defense1346% (22)44% (78) - - - - .18 (96)3.17 (92)76% (81)7% (127)1 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
USC Offense1340% (126)52% (10)25.2138.45.519 (73).23 (21)3.49 (9)85% (6)8% (24)0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)
USC Defense1353% (113)44% (103) - - - - - - 10 (66).2 (49)1.3 (4)28% (122)27% (27).14 (6)7% (42)1.8 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
USC Offense1360% (9)46% (26)24.138269.27.111.225 (31)12 (85).25 (74)1.5 (108)29% (24)36% (18).4 (36)10% (134)2 (74)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 15.18  #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26  #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50%  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 15.18   USC: 17.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 12.4   USC: 16.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 17.925  #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87  #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9  #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9  #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
USC 30
Michigan 26

Projected Total Points: 57
USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11USC31Michigan13USC -3USC58.5Under
202409/21Michigan27USC24USC -4Michigan44.0Over
200601/01Michigan18USC32
200301/01USC28Michigan14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC311 Overs
Michigan111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#21) MICH at (#26) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHUSC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #21 #26
SP+SP+ #25 #16
Perf GradeGrade #32 #30
OffenseOff #47 #17
DefenseDef #31 #73
Spec TeamsST #3 #124
TalentTal #8 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #18
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffUSC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #47 #73
SuccessSuc #102 #94
ExplosiveExp #133 #24
PPAPPA #113 #78
PowerPwr #52 #45
SP+SP+ #48 #36
Pts POPPO #45 #49
HavocHav #58 #105
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #16 #127
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #78
Run ExplRExp #91 #77
PPAExp #86 #96
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #80 #92
Stuff RateStuff #27 #120
TackleTak -  #30
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #92 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #103
Pass ExplPExl #131 #4
PPAExp #119 #49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #74 #64
F7 HavocF7 #73 #127
DB HavocDB #51 #42
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffMICH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #17 #31
SuccessSuc #11 #28
ExplosiveExp #91 #73
PPAPPA #41 #40
PowerPwr #16 #13
SP+SP+ #9 #15
Pts POPPO #85 #36
HavocHav #101 #23
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #15 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #18
Run ExplRExp #106 #11
PPAExp #21 #24
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #24
Stuff RateStuff #22 #61
TackleTak -  #32
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #21 #66
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #42
Pass ExplPExl #108 #71
PPAExp #74 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #99 #30
F7 HavocF7 #24 #50
DB HavocDB #134 #10
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
USC -3.0 (58.5)
USC won vs Michigan this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Michigan last year (31-13)
Michigan beat USC in 2024 (27-24)

  
MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood20233560%24281197.2
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood8839264.537
Bryson Kuzdzal7632644.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh45651414.569
Donaven McCulley (Tr)39588315.144
Marlin Klein24248110.327
Semaj Morgan20223111.232

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder737221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004
Brandyn Hillman493003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder737221
Cole Sullivan445201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry3300010
Jyaire Hill363105
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava26540366%371124109.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller15697286.275
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5415762.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Tanook Hines34561216.551
Lake McRee30450415.064

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II863010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce643103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameryn Fountain3711610
Braylan Shelby276540
Jide Abasiri264420
Eric Gentry717312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
DeCarlos Nicholson421104
Marcelles Williams370004