Vanderbilt at Alabama - 2025 Matchup Preview
Vanderbilt logo (#16)Vanderbilt Commodores at Alabama Crimson Tide(#10)Alabama logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -13.5 (58.5) (-550)  Open: -22.5 | 51.5
Alabama 30 - Vanderbilt: 14  (SEC)

 
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
VAN is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -4.5  (SP+ VAN -0.5)

Projected Score: VAN: 27 - ALA: 31 (58)
ALA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
VAN Travel: 207 miles
Crimson Tide (11 - 4) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 3.7 (#11)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Alabama at Florida State-13.550.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Alabama vs UL Monroe-34.050.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Alabama vs Wisconsin-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Alabama at Georgia+2.553.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Alabama vs Vanderbilt-13.558.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Alabama at Missouri-3.550.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/18 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.560.5W 37 - 20UY
Sat 10/25 Alabama at South Carolina-11.547.5W 29 - 22ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Alabama vs LSU-10.549.5W 20 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Alabama vs Oklahoma-6.545.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 11/22 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois-50.557.5W 56 - 0UY
Sat 11/29 Alabama at Auburn-6.548.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 12/6 Alabama vs Georgia+2.547.5L 7 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Alabama at Oklahoma+1.542.0W 34 - 24OY
Thu 1/1 Alabama vs Indiana+7.546.5L 3 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN#1 (.44)52% (2)38.550% (8)3.37 (9)17654% (3)2875 (3)#99 (.2)42% (68)22.840% (46)43% (91)3.9 (90)59.70.91.2
ALA#48 (.2)43% (62)29.540% (103)2.73 (109)10445% (33)2644.04 (38)#27 (.08)38% (23)19.239% (31)38% (33)3.65 (66)39.40.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)42% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)46% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Offense1338.53351.9%50.9244631762875.747%52%50%54%13%.44
ALA Defense1519.211.437.9%3.651.3 - - - - - 50%48%39%38%18%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Defense1322.82341.7%3.91.2 - - - - - 44%54%40%43%17%.2
ALA Offense1529.539.342.7%4.040.9203681042643.443%56%40%45%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Vanderbilt1331:1824.151%56%6.859.70.91.26.22.4129.5
Alabama1531:3420.342%61%4.539.40.91.35.72.2330.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Offense1347% (92)50% (8)30.9175.95.735 (4).35 (1)3.37 (9)76% (38)8% (30)1.21 (2)
ALA Defense1550% (74)39% (31) - - - - .1 (66)2.81 (53)75% (101)11% (19)1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Defense1344% (11)40% (46) - - - - .04 (31)2.66 (24)72% (76)11% (20)0.93 (54)
ALA Offense1543% (118)40% (103)31104.23.421 (99).02 (115)2.73 (109)67% (100)8% (33)0.83 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Offense1352% (44)54% (3)21.530.8287.39.313.430 (22)8 (34).55 (1)1.5 (74)26% (13)49% (1).78 (1)5% (28)2 (78)
ALA Defense1548% (60)38% (33) - - - - - - 11 (31).11 (17)1.5 (50)35% (19)28% (46).25 (53)6% (47)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Defense1354% (124)43% (91) - - - - - - 8 (75).35 (115)1.6 (75)34% (25)30% (78).38 (109)6% (69)2 (78)
ALA Offense1556% (15)45% (33)22.934.9263.57.611.532 (2)5 (3).35 (37)1.6 (54)30% (49)33% (30).4 (29)5% (42)2 (72)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 18.41  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 27.73  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 9.32  #40
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.9  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #4
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #32

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 18.41   Alabama: 24.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 20.9   Alabama: 20.6




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 24.355  #8
Alabama's Offense Rating: 21.71  #21
Alabama's Defense Rating: -1.40  #5
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 3.7
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.6  #12
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3  #22
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 31
Vanderbilt 27


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 31
Vanderbilt 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 29
Vanderbilt 26

Total Points: 55
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Alabama30Vanderbilt14Alabama -13.5Alabama58.5Under
202410/05Vanderbilt40Alabama35Alabama -23.5Vanderbilt53.5Over
202209/24Alabama55Vanderbilt3Alabama -40.5Alabama61.0Under
201709/23Vanderbilt0Alabama59Alabama -20Alabama42.5Over
201110/08Alabama34Vanderbilt0
200709/08Vanderbilt10Alabama24
200609/09Alabama13Vanderbilt10
200211/02Vanderbilt8Alabama30
200109/08Vanderbilt9Alabama12
200009/08Alabama28Vanderbilt10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama932 Overs
Vanderbilt112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 43 - 12 - 01 - 1
Road Teams4 - 61 - 31 - 10 - 2

(#12) VAN at (#8) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatVANALA
Net PPPPPP #12 #30
Power RatePwr #12 #8
SP+SP+ #11 #12
Perf GradeGrade #27 #17
OffenseOff #24 #36
DefenseDef #59 #17
Spec TeamsST #16 #27
TalentTal #47 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #2
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Alabama Notes
(11/16) Run Off exposed vs OU. OG'd OU but TO's costly
(10/15) RB1 Jam Miller ? for Tenn game
(10/11) Avg 140 yds rush pg with Jam Miller, 80 yds without
(10/6) Leads CFB in TO margin +9, Simpson a Heisman fav
(10/3) Have scored on 1st drive in 3 of 4 games (Scripted)
(10/1) DE/LB Qua Russaw out weeks (foot), big depth hit
(9/14) QB Simpson looks good, Run Off just bad?
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
Alabama Injury Report
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffALA Def
PPPOffPPP #5 #44
Perf GradePerf #24 #17
SuccessSuc #2 #23
ExplosiveExp #9 #61
PPAPPA #1 #27
PowerPwr #2 #5
SP+SP+ #4 #6
Pts POPPO #3 #66
HavocHav #25 #26
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffALA Def
Run GameRun #17 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #31
Run ExplRExp #2 #91
PPAExp #1 #66
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #53
Stuff RateStuff #25 #66
TackleTak -  #24
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #5 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #33
Pass ExplPExl #74 #50
PPAExp #1 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #129 #127
F7 HavocF7 #30 #19
DB HavocDB #28 #47
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffVAN Def
PPPDefPPP #73 #28
Perf GradePerf #36 #59
SuccessSuc #62 #68
ExplosiveExp #50 #103
PPAPPA #48 #99
PowerPwr #21 #40
SP+SP+ #22 #32
Pts POPPO #38 #90
HavocHav #39 #39
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #93 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #46
Run ExplRExp #122 #54
PPAExp #115 #31
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #24
Stuff RateStuff #109 #31
TackleTak -  #106
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #20 #58
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #91
Pass ExplPExl #54 #75
PPAExp #37 #115
Pass Block/RushP Blk #9 #63
F7 HavocF7 #33 #20
DB HavocDB #42 #69
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Alabama -13.5 (58.5)
Alabama won vs Vanderbilt this year (30-14)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Alabama last year (40-35)
Alabama beat Vanderbilt in 2022 (55-3)

  
VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia26737871%35392989.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia167862105.241
Sedrick Alexander106570115.465
Makhilyn Young4541169.180
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Junior Sherrill54784714.546
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Richie Hoskins28321311.553

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253
Bryan Longwell709142
Langston Patterson692030
Marlen Sewell522112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers379531
Zaylin Wood285471
Khordae Sydnor309493
Nicholas Rinaldi477491
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette517056
Mark Davis233004
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Simpson30547365%35672857.5
Austin Mack243275%228207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Miller13050433.924
Daniel Hill7528463.830
Kevin Riley5922423.822
AK Dear1914037.456
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Germie Bernard64862713.543
Ryan Williams49689414.175
Isaiah Horton (Tr)42511812.237
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deontae Lawson805214
Justin Jefferson797325
Brayson Hubbard745218
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)545023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Lebbeus Overton406441
Justin Jefferson797325
Keon Keeley133311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Zabien Brown393006
Justin Jefferson797325