Ole Miss at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Rebels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
UK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ole Miss -10.5   (SP+ MISS -15)
Projected Score: MISS: 29 - UK: 18 (48)
MISS Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
MISS Travel: 378 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#108)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-37.062.5
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-10.5
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-11
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU+5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-30.5
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+12
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+3.5
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-4.5
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-41.5
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-14

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.548.5
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+10.5
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+13.5
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+25
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+21
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+10
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+14.5
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+12
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-28.5
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+3
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+9.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)38.644% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)14.435% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1338.634.647.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1314.418.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 16.17 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.57 #18
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 6.40 #23
2025 Talent Rating: 878.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 35% #19
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.8 #11
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.8 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 16.17   Kentucky: 7.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 19.8   Kentucky: 4.7




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.49 #51
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 15.78 #55
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.50 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 29
Kentucky 18

Projected Total Points: 48
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Ole Miss17Kentucky20KentuckyOle Miss -15Kentucky51.5Under
202210/01Ole Miss22Kentucky19Ole MissOle Miss -6.5Kentucky55.0Under
202010/03Kentucky41Ole Miss42Ole MissKentucky -7.0Ole Miss63.0Over
201711/04Kentucky34Ole Miss37Ole MissKentucky -3.5Ole Miss63.5Over
201111/05Kentucky30Ole Miss13Kentucky
201010/02Ole Miss42Kentucky35Ole Miss
200609/16Kentucky31Ole Miss14Kentucky
200510/22Ole Miss13Kentucky7Ole Miss
200109/29Kentucky31Ole Miss42Ole Miss
200009/29Ole Miss35Kentucky17Ole Miss
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky322 Overs
Ole Miss722 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 40 - 40 - 40 - 0
Road Teams4 - 64 - 00 - 04 - 0

(#18) Ole Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 16.17 #18
Offense Rating: 22.57 #18
Defense Rating: 6.40 #23
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.8 #11
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.8 #9
Talent Rating: 878.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 35% #19
Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 51%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 35%
Great in Scoring Position 2.98 PPO
Great Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Ole Miss Notes
(6/2) WR has 5 players with 400+ yds, 4 are portals
(5/19) Kiffin & OC Weis Jr want to push tempo TY
(5/19) RB D Taylor (1k LY, Troy) added post spring
(5/19) OL rebuild 1/5. 5 portal adds (3 P5/2 G5).
(5/19) Def rebuild. DL talent is good, 8 DB portals!?
(5/11) OL bottom 1/3 in exp & 62% comes from portals
(4/4) Portal TE Hasz (Ark) top 10 via PFF, athletic
(3/19) QB Simmons new but exciting. High hopes
(3/19) RB rebuild, 2 portal adds. Who breaks out?
(3/19) Talented, but won 10 w/ loads more LY
Ole Miss     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #18
#51
Off #18
#55
Def #23
#40
Talent #22
#23
SP+ #11
#43
SP+ Off #20
#79
SP+ Def #9
#31

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Ole Miss last year (20-17)
Ole Miss beat Kentucky in 2022 (22-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MISS | UK
Depth Chart: MISS | UK
Rosters: MISS | UK
(#51) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.49 #51
Offense Rating: 15.78 #55
Defense Rating: 10.50 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 876.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(6/9) Stoops had a great run, but this looks over
(6/8) 6 Def starters from 9 portals, all DL starters
(6/8) 14 proj starters from portal, 8 Off & 6 Def
(6/8) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell(Neb) + McGowen(NMSU)
(6/8) OL 1/5 back, 7 portal adds. 5 clear starters
(5/11) OL has a lot of exp but 66% comes from portals
(5/5) UK 2-10 run in SEC home games & 0-7 streak
(4/4) OG Joshua Braun a top G via PFF
(3/24) Portal DL Gusta (WSU)/Grace (S Dak) big
(3/22) Added 13 players that started LY via portal


  
Ole Miss's OC Charlie Weis Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maealiuaki Smith (Tr)447559%499246.7
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Taylor (Tr)173101075.856
Domonique Thomas4219714.722
Kewan Lacy (Tr)2310404.513
Cayden Lee21809.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)52892617.277
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)47732415.650
Traylon Ray (Tr)28426415.254

View Ole Miss's Full Roster
Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Yates (Tr)1147162
Wydett Williams (Tr)904114
TJ Dottery776341
Suntarine Perkins60141180
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
TJ Dottery776341
Kamarion Franklin115330
Zxavian Harris315220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)483006
Da'Shawn Womack (Tr)81124
Sage Ryan (Tr)422104

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zach Calzada (Tr)31247166%34323297.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)15381335.338
Dante Dowdell (Tr)143614124.338
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Zach Calzada (Tr)8323052.833
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javian Hester14315122.590
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Seth McGowan (Tr)23277312.043
Troy Stellato (Tr)26266110.234

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landyn Watson (Tr)664030
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)5810970
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)5810970
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
David Gusta (Tr)203163
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
J.Q. Hardaway470003
David Gusta (Tr)203163