Ole Miss at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo (#20)Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -8.0 (51.5) (-330)  Open: -8.5 | 51.5
Ole Miss 30 - Kentucky: 23  (SEC)

 
Rebels (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Golding (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 20 (34 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
UK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ole Miss -19  (SP+ MISS -21)

Projected Score: MISS: 34 - UK: 15 (50)
MISS Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
MISS Travel: 378 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 8) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami-2.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#12 (.32)48% (17)37.645% (58)2.77 (104)17251% (5)2904.71 (9)#51 (.12)40% (49)20.444% (82)37% (24)2.94 (16)50.30.90.9
UK#116 (.08)42% (79)2345% (53)3.05 (50)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#84 (.18)44% (96)26.444% (83)45% (110)3.98 (99)411.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1437.634.347.9%4.710.9244621722904.652%47%45%51%13%.32
UK Defense1226.422.643.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1420.427.839.8%2.940.9 - - - - - 50%49%44%37%17%.12
UK Offense122331.741.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1427:2123.945%69%5.450.30.90.94.91.9028.5
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1452% (46)45% (58)37.2171.84.636 (11).15 (48)2.77 (104)80% (21)8% (29)0.98 (61)
UK Defense1252% (97)44% (83) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (45)10% (57)0.9 (41)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1450% (67)44% (82) - - - - .2 (120)3.12 (105)67% (42)10% (61)1.1 (125)
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (50)70% (85)11% (112)0.82 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1447% (84)51% (5)20.531.3290.19.314.223 (50)8 (60).49 (6)1.6 (50)28% (22)39% (6).6 (4)6% (50)2.2 (14)
UK Defense1246% (36)45% (110) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (65)30% (91)31% (83).31 (76)5% (110)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1449% (76)37% (24) - - - - - - 8 (100).1 (14)1.5 (49)33% (47)28% (56).23 (46)7% (41)2.1 (90)
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (63)26% (111).02 (134)7% (94)1.7 (131)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 26.52  #8
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 21.98  #16
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -5.48  #12
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.8  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #8
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 26.52   Kentucky: 5.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 22.8   Kentucky: 1.8




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 5.42  #56
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.52  #65
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.48  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 34
Kentucky 15


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 22
Kentucky 18

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 30
Kentucky 26

Total Points: 56
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Kentucky23Ole Miss30Ole Miss -8.0Kentucky51.5Over
202409/28Ole Miss17Kentucky20Ole Miss -15Kentucky51.5Under
202210/01Ole Miss22Kentucky19Ole Miss -6.5Kentucky55.0Under
202010/03Kentucky41Ole Miss42Kentucky -7.0Ole Miss63.0Over
201711/04Kentucky34Ole Miss37Kentucky -3.5Ole Miss63.5Over
201111/05Kentucky30Ole Miss13
201010/02Ole Miss42Kentucky35
200609/16Kentucky31Ole Miss14
200510/22Ole Miss13Kentucky7
200109/29Kentucky31Ole Miss42
200009/29Ole Miss35Kentucky17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky333 Overs
Ole Miss822 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 51 - 40 - 41 - 0
Road Teams5 - 64 - 10 - 14 - 0

(#8) MISS at (#56) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMISSUK
Power RatePwr #8 #56
SP+SP+ #7 #63
Perf GradeGrade #17 #70
OffenseOff #22 #91
DefenseDef #37 #38
Spec TeamsST #24 #87
TalentTal #33 #26
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #23
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #22 #38
SuccessSuc #17 #96
ExplosiveExp #38 #57
PPAPPA #12 #84
PowerPwr #16 #49
SP+SP+ #8 #48
Pts POPPO #9 #99
HavocHav #36 #91
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUK Def
Run GameRun #15 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #83
Run ExplRExp #61 #41
PPAExp #48 #63
Run BlockR Blk #101 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #71
Stuff RateStuff #109 #53
TackleTak -  #38
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #32 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #5 #110
Pass ExplPExl #50 #65
PPAExp #6 #99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #26 #10
F7 HavocF7 #29 #57
DB HavocDB #50 #110
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #91 #37
SuccessSuc #79 #49
ExplosiveExp #126 #85
PPAPPA #116 #51
PowerPwr #65 #12
SP+SP+ #78 #17
Pts POPPO #57 #16
HavocHav #110 #53
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #88 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #82
Run ExplRExp #123 #125
PPAExp #98 #120
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #105
Stuff RateStuff #52 #86
TackleTak -  #31
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #120 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #24
Pass ExplPExl #59 #49
PPAExp #101 #14
Pass Block/RushP Blk #48 #89
F7 HavocF7 #112 #61
DB HavocDB #94 #41
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Ole Miss 8.0 (51.5)
Ole Miss won at Kentucky this year (30-23)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Ole Miss last year (20-17)
Ole Miss beat Kentucky in 2022 (22-19)

  
MISS's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)24136267%32981939.1
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)2731366215.059
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)12450684.141
Logan Diggs2917946.251
Deuce Alexander (Tr)1812306.831
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)48738315.455
Deuce Alexander (Tr)41664216.288
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)43612614.275
Dae'Quan Wright34553416.364

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery835112
Suntarine Perkins6892114
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kamarion Franklin5774142
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)34128131
William Echoles579563
Kamarion Franklin5774142
Zxavian Harris468362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)501015
Suntarine Perkins6892114

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024