Last updated: Jan 19, 2026 7:30pm
This page is home/away neutral. For each stat, we identify which team “won the battle” (home or away),
then show how often that team won and covered.
Totals note: In the Totals section, “above/below average” refers to the game environment metric (pace, combined PPA, etc.) — not whether the betting total itself was high or low.
Totals note: In the Totals section, “above/below average” refers to the game environment metric (pace, combined PPA, etc.) — not whether the betting total itself was high or low.
🏈 What Wins Games
When a team won this “battle,” how often did that team win the game?
| Factor | Battle Winner Win % | Games |
|---|---|---|
|
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Who created more value per play overall
|
80.2% | 2,264 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Who created more value per pass
|
77.4% | 2,260 |
|
Defensive Disruption
Who created more chaos on defense
|
76.3% | 2,248 |
|
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Who stayed “on schedule” more often
|
73.7% | 2,251 |
|
Finishing Drives
Who turned trips past the 40 into points
|
70.7% | 2,215 |
|
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Who stayed on schedule before passing downs
|
67.6% | 2,255 |
|
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Who executed better in obvious passing situations
|
67.0% | 2,227 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Who created more value per run
|
62.5% | 2,261 |
|
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Who got more push up front
|
58.3% | 2,152 |
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Overall PPA differential (similar to EPA). Adjusted for situation and field position.
80.2%
Battle winner win rate
2,264
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
65.9%
Battle winner cover rate
2,211
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Passing PPA differential. Explosive passing creates fast scoring swings.
77.4%
Battle winner win rate
2,260
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
67.0%
Battle winner cover rate
2,207
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Defensive Disruption
Havoc differential (TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, PBUs).
76.3%
Battle winner win rate
2,248
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
64.2%
Battle winner cover rate
2,195
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Success Rate differential. Sustained efficiency is strongly tied to winning.
73.7%
Battle winner win rate
2,251
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
58.8%
Battle winner cover rate
2,198
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Finishing Drives
Points per scoring opportunity (drives crossing opponent’s 40). Captures high-leverage execution.
70.7%
Battle winner win rate
2,215
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
64.7%
Battle winner cover rate
2,164
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Success Rate differential on standard downs.
67.6%
Battle winner win rate
2,255
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
55.7%
Battle winner cover rate
2,202
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Success Rate differential on passing downs (2nd & 7+ / 3rd-4th & 5+).
67.0%
Battle winner win rate
2,227
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
59.3%
Battle winner cover rate
2,175
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Rushing PPA differential.
62.5%
Battle winner win rate
2,261
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
54.9%
Battle winner cover rate
2,209
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Line yards estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage.
58.3%
Battle winner win rate
2,152
Games used
Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40
50.3%
Battle winner cover rate
2,104
ATS games used
Requires spread line
💰 What Beats the Spread
When a team won this “battle,” how often did that team cover?
Splits shown by the home line (favorites vs underdogs) for context.
| Factor | Battle Winner Cover % | Home Fav | Home Dog | Home Dog 7+ | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Who created more value per pass
|
67.0% | 66.2% | 68.5% | 66.0% | 2,207 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Who created more value per play overall
|
65.9% | 63.4% | 70.5% | 64.4% | 2,211 |
|
Finishing Drives
Who turned trips past the 40 into points
|
64.7% | 63.2% | 67.6% | 67.1% | 2,164 |
|
Defensive Disruption
Who created more chaos on defense
|
64.2% | 61.4% | 69.2% | 65.5% | 2,195 |
|
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Who executed better in obvious passing situations
|
59.3% | 59.2% | 59.6% | 59.5% | 2,175 |
|
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Who stayed “on schedule” more often
|
58.8% | 56.6% | 62.8% | 58.3% | 2,198 |
|
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Who stayed on schedule before passing downs
|
55.7% | 53.1% | 60.4% | 57.0% | 2,202 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Who created more value per run
|
54.9% | 53.1% | 58.1% | 57.7% | 2,209 |
|
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Who got more push up front
|
50.3% | 49.1% | 52.4% | 51.7% | 2,104 |
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Passing PPA differential. Explosive passing creates fast scoring swings.
67.0%
Cover rate (all)
66.2%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
68.5%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
66.0%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,207 (all) /
1,421 (home fav) /
786 (home dog) /
376 (home dog 7+)
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Overall PPA differential (similar to EPA). Adjusted for situation and field position.
65.9%
Cover rate (all)
63.4%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
70.5%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
64.4%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,211 (all) /
1,424 (home fav) /
787 (home dog) /
376 (home dog 7+)
Finishing Drives
Points per scoring opportunity (drives crossing opponent’s 40). Captures high-leverage execution.
64.7%
Cover rate (all)
63.2%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
67.6%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
67.1%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,164 (all) /
1,393 (home fav) /
771 (home dog) /
371 (home dog 7+)
Defensive Disruption
Havoc differential (TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, PBUs).
64.2%
Cover rate (all)
61.4%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
69.2%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
65.5%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,195 (all) /
1,415 (home fav) /
780 (home dog) /
371 (home dog 7+)
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Success Rate differential on passing downs (2nd & 7+ / 3rd-4th & 5+).
59.3%
Cover rate (all)
59.2%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
59.6%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
59.5%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,175 (all) /
1,393 (home fav) /
782 (home dog) /
375 (home dog 7+)
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Success Rate differential. Sustained efficiency is strongly tied to winning.
58.8%
Cover rate (all)
56.6%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
62.8%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
58.3%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,198 (all) /
1,415 (home fav) /
783 (home dog) /
374 (home dog 7+)
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Success Rate differential on standard downs.
55.7%
Cover rate (all)
53.1%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
60.4%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
57.0%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,202 (all) /
1,417 (home fav) /
785 (home dog) /
374 (home dog 7+)
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Rushing PPA differential.
54.9%
Cover rate (all)
53.1%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
58.1%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
57.7%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,209 (all) /
1,422 (home fav) /
787 (home dog) /
376 (home dog 7+)
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Line yards estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage.
50.3%
Cover rate (all)
49.1%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
52.4%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
51.7%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,104 (all) /
1,358 (home fav) /
746 (home dog) /
354 (home dog 7+)
🎯 What Hits the Total
Totals are a game-level outcome. For each metric below, we split games into two groups:
Above-average metric vs Below-average metric, then show how often those games went Over.
| Game Environment Metric | Over% (Metric > Avg) | Games | Over% (Metric < Avg) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Pace (Total Plays)
More plays = more chances to score (home plays + away plays).
Metric average (cutoff): 127
|
50.1% | 1,195 | 44.7% | 1,038 |
|
Combined Big-Play Impact (PPA rate)
Adds both teams’ overall PPA (rate). Higher combined play value tends to correlate with Overs.
Metric average (cutoff): 0.341
|
68.3% | 1,084 | 28.1% | 1,149 |
|
Combined Big-Play Impact (PPA total impact)
Approximates total game impact: (home PPA × home plays) + (away PPA × away plays).
Metric average (cutoff): 21.7
|
68.6% | 1,099 | 27.3% | 1,134 |
|
Combined Scoring Opportunities
Total number of drives crossing the opponent 40 (both teams). More chances = more points.
Metric average (cutoff): 11.54
|
63.3% | 1,093 | 32.5% | 1,140 |
|
Combined Explosiveness
Adds both teams’ explosiveness. Explosive games are more likely to spike totals.
Metric average (cutoff): 2.567
|
60.7% | 1,070 | 35.6% | 1,163 |
|
Combined Efficiency (Success Rate)
Adds both teams’ success rate. Efficient offenses sustain drives and scoring chances.
Metric average (cutoff): 0.835
|
62.0% | 1,093 | 33.8% | 1,140 |
“Above/Below Average” refers to the metric (pace, combined PPA, etc.), not the betting total number itself.
If you want, we can add a separate “High Total vs Low Total” split later (e.g., totals ≥ 55 vs < 55).
📘 Definitions (Plain English)
Quick glossary for the terms used on this page.
- PPA (Predicted Points Added): Similar to EPA. Measures play value using down, distance, and field position.
- Success Rate: % of plays that stay “on schedule” (50% yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th, or a TD).
- Passing Downs: 2nd & 7+ to go, or 3rd/4th & 5+ to go.
- Standard Downs: All downs that are not passing downs.
- Scoring Opportunities: Drives that cross the opponent’s 40-yard line.
- Points per Opportunity: Points scored per scoring opportunity (drive past the 40).
- Havoc: % of plays with a TFL, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
- Line Yards: Rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage (losses count extra, big runs count less).
- “Won the battle”: The team that had the better value in that stat (home minus away > 0 means home; < 0 means away).
These are descriptive validations (what tended to happen when one team outperformed the other). Turning this into a pregame predictor
requires season-to-date team ratings and opponent adjustment.
Last updated: Jan 19, 2026 7:30pm