USC at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview

(#20)USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#13)

Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -10.5 (60.5) (-395) Open: -10.5
Notre Dame 34 - USC: 24

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Heavy Rain Predicted
ND 3rd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -13.5 (SP+ ND -7)
Projected Score: USC: 23 - ND: 37 (60)
ND Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
USC Travel: 1816 miles, 3 hrs behind

Fighting Irish (10 - 2) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Notre Dame at Miami	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Notre Dame vs Texas A&M	-7.5	48.5	L 40 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-24.5	51.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Notre Dame at Arkansas	-5.5	64.5	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Notre Dame vs Boise State	-21.5	63.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/11	Notre Dame vs NC State	-23.5	59.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Notre Dame vs USC	-10.5	60.5	W 34 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Notre Dame at Boston College	-31.5	55.5	W 25 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/8	Notre Dame vs Navy	-30.5	54.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Notre Dame at Pittsburgh	-12.5	55.5	W 37 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Notre Dame vs Syracuse	-36.5	51.5	W 70 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Notre Dame at Stanford	-32.5	50.5	W 49 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#8 (.33)	49% (11)	35.8	46% (41)	3.16 (28)	169	52% (4)	296	4.66 (10)	#64 (.16)	45% (119)	23	47% (122)	43% (81)	3.53 (56)	54.2	1.2	1.4
ND	#4 (.36)	49% (10)	42	47% (25)	3.05 (50)	204	51% (6)	255	4.79 (6)	#12 (.04)	36% (13)	17.6	38% (20)	36% (16)	2.58 (6)	53.1	0.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	35.8	27.4	48.9%	4.66	1.2	24	465	169	296	5.2	48%	50%	46%	52%	13%	.33
ND Defense	12	17.6	18	36.4%	2.58	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	38%	36%	18%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	23	28.8	45.4%	3.53	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	47%	43%	16%	.16
ND Offense	12	42	44.7	49%	4.79	0.8	23	460	204	255	5.9	53%	45%	47%	51%	13%	.36

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	29:50	23.7	51%	64%	5.8	54.2	1.2	1.4	5.5	2.4	2	27.2
Notre Dame	12	29:17	22.5	48%	55%	5.5	53.1	0.8	1.9	5.8	2.8	7	32.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	48% (81)	46% (41)	32.5	169.2	5.2	29 (16)	.18 (36)	3.16 (28)	75% (47)	7% (17)	0.95 (74)
ND Defense	12	43% (6)	38% (20)	-	-	-	-	.04 (37)	2.74 (39)	71% (66)	9% (77)	0.89 (32)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	47% (37)	47% (122)	-	-	-	-	.13 (88)	3.29 (125)	67% (32)	11% (34)	0.81 (6)
ND Offense	12	53% (38)	47% (25)	34.8	204.4	5.9	38 (11)	.25 (11)	3.05 (50)	62% (122)	8% (36)	1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	50% (61)	52% (4)	21.5	32.3	296	9.2	13.7	26 (22)	10 (34)	.52 (5)	1.6 (36)	27% (14)	37% (11)	.5 (10)	6% (66)	2.2 (14)
ND Defense	12	56% (132)	36% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.09 (8)	1.6 (93)	36% (9)	26% (24)	.17 (17)	9% (3)	2.1 (84)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	51% (95)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.18 (41)	1.6 (76)	29% (110)	33% (116)	.34 (93)	5% (102)	2.1 (112)
ND Offense	12	45% (95)	51% (6)	18.1	26.8	255.1	9.5	14.1	25 (33)	6 (34)	.45 (10)	1.7 (25)	29% (37)	44% (2)	.65 (3)	5% (35)	2 (65)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 13.95 #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87 #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 13.95 Notre Dame: 29.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 17.3 Notre Dame: 24.3

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 29.015 #3
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 26.69 #6
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.21 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1060.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3 #5
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #7
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 37
USC 23

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 33
USC 24

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 35
USC 25

Total Points: 60

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Notre Dame	34	USC	24	Notre Dame -10.5	USC	60.5	Under
2024	11/30	USC	35	Notre Dame	49	Notre Dame -6.5	Notre Dame	52.5	Over
2023	10/14	Notre Dame	48	USC	20	Notre Dame -3	Notre Dame	61.0	Over
2022	11/26	USC	38	Notre Dame	27	USC -4	USC	63.5	Over
2021	10/23	Notre Dame	31	USC	16	Notre Dame -8	Notre Dame	59.5	Under
2019	10/12	Notre Dame	30	USC	27	Notre Dame -10.5	USC	60.0	Under
2018	11/24	USC	17	Notre Dame	24	Notre Dame -12.5	USC	54.0	Under
2017	10/21	Notre Dame	49	USC	14	Notre Dame -4	Notre Dame	61.5	Over
2016	11/26	USC	45	Notre Dame	27	USC -17	USC	59.5	Over
2015	10/17	Notre Dame	41	USC	31	Notre Dame -3	Notre Dame	62.0	Over
2014	11/29	USC	49	Notre Dame	14	USC -7	USC	0
2013	10/19	Notre Dame	14	USC	10	Notre Dame -1.5	Notre Dame	0
2012	11/24	USC	13	Notre Dame	22
2011	10/22	Notre Dame	17	USC	31
2010	11/27	USC	16	Notre Dame	20
2009	10/17	Notre Dame	27	USC	34
2008	11/29	USC	38	Notre Dame	3
2007	10/20	Notre Dame	0	USC	38
2006	11/25	USC	44	Notre Dame	24
2005	10/15	Notre Dame	31	USC	34
2004	11/27	USC	41	Notre Dame	10
2003	10/18	Notre Dame	14	USC	45
2001	10/20	Notre Dame	27	USC	16
2000	11/24	USC	21	Notre Dame	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	13	6	6 Overs
USC	11	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	9 - 3	8 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 14	3 - 9	1 - 1	2 - 8

(#26) USC at (#3) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	ND
Net PPPPPP	#19	#2
Power RatePwr	#26	#3
SP+SP+	#17	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#30	#5
OffenseOff	#17	#5
DefenseDef	#73	#5
Spec TeamsST	#124	#23
TalentTal	#21	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#8

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Notre Dame Notes(11/16) Killed Pitt, 10-2 finish likely. Get healthy for CFP?
(11/4) Huge issues at K, missed 2 XP, short FG vs BC
(10/20) OG Billy Schrauth out until at least Pitt/Cuse (3 OL)
(10/18) 300 yds rush vs USC, Pass Def torched, huge Win
(10/16) DL G Rubio out vs SC (best DT) & L Thomas (depth)
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
Notre Dame Injury Report

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	#15	#1
Perf GradePerf	#17	#5
SuccessSuc	#11	#13
ExplosiveExp	#33	#85
PPAPPA	#8	#12
PowerPwr	#16	#2
SP+SP+	#11	#11
Pts POPPO	#10	#6
HavocHav	#32	#19

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#15	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#20
Run ExplRExp	#74	#32
PPAExp	#36	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#28	#39
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#74
TackleTak	-	#9

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#93
PPAExp	#5	#8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#25
F7 HavocF7	#17	#77
DB HavocDB	#66	#3

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	USC Def
PPPDefPPP	#62	#24
Perf GradePerf	#5	#73
SuccessSuc	#10	#119
ExplosiveExp	#3	#16
PPAPPA	#4	#64
PowerPwr	#6	#44
SP+SP+	#7	#35
Pts POPPO	#6	#56
HavocHav	#36	#63

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#5	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#122
Run ExplRExp	#8	#6
PPAExp	#11	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#86
TackleTak	-	#30

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#76
PPAExp	#10	#41
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#64
F7 HavocF7	#36	#34
DB HavocDB	#35	#102

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 65° - Wind: 11 mph
Rain: 0.083

Rematch from Week 8
Notre Dame -10.5 (60.5)
Notre Dame won vs USC this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat USC last year (49-35)
Notre Dame beat USC in 2023 (48-20)
USC beat Notre Dame in 2022 (38-27)

USC's OC Josh Henson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	265	403	66%	3711	24	10	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	156	972	8	6.2	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	54	157	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Tanook Hines	34	561	2	16.5	51
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	86	3	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	64	3	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Fountain	37	11	6	1	0
Braylan Shelby	27	6	5	4	0
Jide Abasiri	26	4	4	2	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
DeCarlos Nicholson	42	1	1	4
Marcelles Williams	37	0	0	4

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
C.J. Carr	195	293	67%	2741	24	6	9.4
Kenny Minchey	20	26	77%	196	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	199	1372	18	6.9	94
Jadarian Price	113	674	11	6.0	58
Aneyas Williams	24	224	5	9.3	54
Kenny Minchey	7	84	1	12.0	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Faison	49	640	4	13.1	54
Malachi Fields (Tr)	36	630	5	17.5	66
Eli Raridon	32	482	0	15.1	65
Will Pauling (Tr)	26	381	6	14.7	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5
Jaiden Ausberry	51	4	2	5	0
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boubacar Traore	37	10	7	8	0
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2
Jaylen Sneed	35	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Gray	18	1	0	0	10
Leonard Moore	31	0	0	0	7
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5