USC at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview
USC logo (#20)USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#13)Notre Dame logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -8.5 (61.5) (-325)  Open: -10.5
Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, IN

 
Trojans (5 - 1) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 46 - 21 (33 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ND 3rd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -4  (SP+ ND -1)
Projected Score: USC: 28 - ND: 32 (61)
ND Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
USC Travel: 1816 miles, 3 hrs behind
Fighting Irish (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 21 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+8.561.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-23
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-10
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+7
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-27.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Notre Dame at Miami-2.553.5L 24 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Notre Dame vs Texas A&M-7.548.5L 40 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Notre Dame vs Purdue-24.551.5W 56 - 30OY
Sat 9/27 Notre Dame at Arkansas-5.564.5W 56 - 13OY
Sat 10/4 Notre Dame vs Boise State-21.563.5W 28 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 Notre Dame vs NC State-23.559.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Notre Dame vs USC-8.561.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Notre Dame at Boston College-26.5
Sat 11/8 Notre Dame vs Navy-24.5
Sat 11/15 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh-9.5
Sat 11/22 Notre Dame vs Syracuse-30.5
Sat 11/29 Notre Dame at Stanford-30.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#2 (.5)60% (2)45.560% (1)3.7 (3)22661% (3)3265.35 (6)#29 (.07)42% (74)21.345% (104)40% (56)2.67 (12)681.21.8
ND#13 (.35)50% (18)4049% (27)3.06 (56)17551% (16)2935.05 (14)#64 (.16)41% (69)20.843% (82)40% (62)3.36 (37)5012
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense645.532.560.1%5.351.2265522263266.552%48%60%61%11%.5
ND Defense620.821.341.3%3.362 - - - - - 44%56%43%40%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense621.325.541.9%2.671.8 - - - - - 44%56%45%40%18%.07
ND Offense6404049.9%5.05124468175293553%47%49%51%14%.35

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC631:0426.256%83%7681.21.87.53.3227.1
Notre Dame629:5423.749%36%5.850123.52.3231.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense652% (61)60% (1)34.7225.86.519 (7).34 (6)3.7 (3)83% (15)7% (16)0.87 (109)
ND Defense644% (16)43% (82) - - - - .14 (93)3.16 (117)68% (52)6% (134)0.9 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense644% (12)45% (104) - - - - - (24)3.18 (119)64% (32)14% (15)0.69 (3)
ND Offense653% (42)49% (27)34.8174.7517 (16).23 (31)3.06 (56)54% (134)9% (71)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense648% (78)61% (3)22.731325.810.514.414 (22)2 (11).7 (1)1.6 (50)21% (2)40% (9).58 (13)4% (19)2.2 (21)
ND Defense656% (121)40% (62) - - - - - - 11 (2).19 (52)1.5 (69)34% (38)26% (31).23 (51)8% (10)2 (82)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense656% (123)40% (56) - - - - - - 8 (12).13 (33)1.8 (130)33% (48)30% (76).26 (62)5% (112)2.4 (132)
ND Offense647% (90)51% (16)1928292.810.515.413 (27)3 (26).5 (14)1.7 (18)29% (36)45% (3).62 (9)5% (52)1.8 (109)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 28.29  #13
USC's Offense Rating: 32.14  #4
USC's Defense Rating: 3.85  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #14
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.3  #1
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7  #45

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 28.29   Notre Dame: 28.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 20.7   Notre Dame: 21.3




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 28.64  #10
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 29.14  #8
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.15  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 1072.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 58  #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.3  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7  #23

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 833
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


USC Scoring
Offense: 45.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.5
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 32
USC 28

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 33
USC 24

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 32
USC 30

Total Points: 62
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense at Home: 40
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30USC35Notre Dame49Notre Dame -6.5Notre Dame52.5Over
202310/14Notre Dame48USC20Notre Dame -3Notre Dame61.0Over
202211/26USC38Notre Dame27USC -4USC63.5Over
202110/23Notre Dame31USC16Notre Dame -8Notre Dame59.5Under
201910/12Notre Dame30USC27Notre Dame -10.5USC60.0Under
201811/24USC17Notre Dame24Notre Dame -12.5USC54.0Under
201710/21Notre Dame49USC14Notre Dame -4Notre Dame61.5Over
201611/26USC45Notre Dame27USC -17USC59.5Over
201510/17Notre Dame41USC31Notre Dame -3Notre Dame62.0Over
201411/29USC49Notre Dame14USC -7USC0
201310/19Notre Dame14USC10Notre Dame -1.5Notre Dame0
201211/24USC13Notre Dame22
201110/22Notre Dame17USC31
201011/27USC16Notre Dame20
200910/17Notre Dame27USC34
200811/29USC38Notre Dame3
200710/20Notre Dame0USC38
200611/25USC44Notre Dame24
200510/15Notre Dame31USC34
200411/27USC41Notre Dame10
200310/18Notre Dame14USC45
200110/20Notre Dame27USC16
200011/24USC21Notre Dame38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame1266 Overs
USC1153 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 109 - 28 - 11 - 1
Road Teams10 - 132 - 91 - 11 - 8

(#13) USC at (#10) ND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCND
Power RatePwr #13 #10
SP+SP+ #14 #9
Perf GradeGrade #8 #18
OffenseOff #6 #10
DefenseDef #50 #45
Spec TeamsST #102 #44
TalentTal #21 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #8

USC Notes
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
(9/21) RB Jordan has risen his game, good reliable RB
(8/26) OL 2/5 back. 0 portal starters, walk on won C
(8/22) QB Maiava good at times, but is he a baller?
(8/21) OG DJ Winfield ruled ineligible, blow to OL
(6/5) WR Lemon/Lane a top duo in CFB, 2 portal adds

Notre Dame Notes
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
(9/15) Pass Def is awful. DB depth is huge issue
(9/15) DL a big issue, no pass rush w/ all these DEs?
(8/31) Carr is a baller, but OL is not good. Def leaked
(8/19) QB1 will be CJ Carr, beat Kenny Minchey
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #6 #45
SuccessSuc #2 #69
ExplosiveExp #78 #60
PPAPPA #2 #64
PowerPwr #4 #27
SP+SP+ #1 #23
Pts POPPO #6 #37
HavocHav #12 #103
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Run GameRun #17 #32
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #82
Run ExplRExp #109 #43
PPAExp #6 #93
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #3 #117
Stuff RateStuff #5 #123
TackleTak -  #28
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Pass GamePass #7 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #62
Pass ExplPExl #50 #69
PPAExp #1 #52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #73
F7 HavocF7 #16 #134
DB HavocDB #19 #10
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatND OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #50
SuccessSuc #18 #74
ExplosiveExp #16 #88
PPAPPA #13 #29
PowerPwr #8 #42
SP+SP+ #4 #45
Pts POPPO #14 #12
HavocHav #58 #30
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #14 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #27 #104
Run ExplRExp #34 #3
PPAExp #31 #24
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #119
Stuff RateStuff #100 #49
TackleTak -  #4
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatND OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #12 #23
Pass SuccessPSuc #16 #56
Pass ExplPExl #18 #130
PPAExp #14 #33
Pass Block/RushP Blk #72 #55
F7 HavocF7 #71 #15
DB HavocDB #52 #112
Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat USC last year (49-35)
Notre Dame beat USC in 2023 (48-20)
USC beat Notre Dame in 2022 (38-27)

  
USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava12317172%185213210.8
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
King Miller29310310.775
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Husan Longstreet107627.617
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon44682615.574
Ja'Kobi Lane18313217.459
Lake McRee14289120.664
Walker Lyons12149212.426

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eric Gentry417301
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)302101
Desman Stephens II300010
Christian Pierce232101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby145420
Eric Gentry417301
Devan Thompkins194311
Kameryn Fountain156300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
Eric Gentry417301
DeCarlos Nicholson121101

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
C.J. Carr10515867%162213310.3
Kenny Minchey8989%950010.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love10053085.346
Jadarian Price6342276.749
Nolan James Jr.83304.115
Aneyas Williams63015.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Faison29376213.048
Eli Raridon20342017.165
Malachi Fields (Tr)18339218.866
Will Pauling (Tr)13243318.742

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen311120
Adon Shuler290002
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa282111
Jaiden Ausberry261100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boubacar Traore246530
Jaylen Sneed143200
Drayk Bowen311120
Jordan Botelho111110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Gray110006
Mark Zackery IV71002
Adon Shuler290002