SMU at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
TCU -6.5 (63.5) (-238)  Open: -4.0
TCU 35 - SMU: 24

 
Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
SMU 2nd straight Road Game
TCU 2nd straight Home Game
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -1.5  (SP+ TCU -3)

Projected Score: SMU: 29 - TCU: 31 (60)
TCU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 35 miles
Horned Frogs (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 25 (37 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 8) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+5.550.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-5.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville+0.5
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.065.5
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-15
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-6
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+4
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-7.5
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-2.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 8, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 8, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#36 (.27)44% (58)3441% (94)3.03 (61)12747% (30)2784.32 (49)#18 (.04)41% (59)22.338% (32)43% (83)2.38 (3)67.81.52.3
TCU#28 (.3)46% (47)35.344% (67)2.53 (122)11847% (38)3224.51 (35)#93 (.2)40% (51)24.735% (18)45% (102)3.61 (58)64.21.51.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense6342644.1%4.321.522405127278446%53%41%47%17%.27
TCU Defense624.72239.9%3.611.7 - - - - - 52%48%35%45%18%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense622.322.540.6%2.382.3 - - - - - 41%58%38%43%21%.04
TCU Offense635.337.345.5%4.511.5224401183223.941%59%44%47%17%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU626:1921.538%75%767.81.52.36.73.2328.2
TCU627:0922.354%62%6.864.21.51.76.32.7129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense646% (101)41% (94)31.5127.249 (77).12 (72)3.03 (61)84% (13)10% (98)1.04 (43)
TCU Defense652% (86)35% (18) - - - - .1 (71)3.05 (100)79% (107)12% (32)0.92 (56)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense641% (7)38% (32) - - - - -.06 (12)2.58 (29)59% (15)11% (51)0.86 (28)
TCU Offense641% (122)44% (67)29.8117.53.99 (77).08 (91)2.53 (122)75% (53)10% (84)0.84 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense653% (41)47% (30)2332277.88.712.115 (13)6 (102).46 (23)1.6 (49)31% (72)28% (96).35 (59)6% (93)2.2 (23)
TCU Defense648% (53)45% (102) - - - - - - 6 (29).31 (95)1.7 (118)34% (45)35% (120).54 (132)6% (69)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense658% (130)43% (83) - - - - - - 10 (5).11 (30)1.5 (52)35% (28)32% (98).23 (48)11% (2)2 (64)
TCU Offense659% (15)47% (38)2437322.38.713.418 (4)7 (119).45 (27)1.8 (11)35% (124)33% (47).53 (24)7% (97)2.5 (5)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 23.81  #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49  #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 23.81   TCU: 17.745

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.8   TCU: 11.3




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 17.745  #30
TCU's Offense Rating: 22.64  #25
TCU's Defense Rating: 3.45  #40
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3  #33
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #25
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #52

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.5

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 31
SMU 29


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 30
SMU 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
TCU 29
SMU 27

Total Points: 56
TCU Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 24.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20TCU35SMU24TCU -6.5TCU63.5Under
202409/21SMU66TCU42TCU -1SMU58.5Over
202309/23TCU34SMU17TCU -7TCU63.5Under
202209/24SMU34TCU42TCU -2.5TCU72.0Over
202109/25TCU34SMU42TCU -8SMU66.0Over
201909/21TCU38SMU41TCU -7.5SMU54.5Over
201809/07SMU12TCU42TCU -23.5TCU59.5Under
201709/16TCU56SMU36TCU -22SMU64.5Over
201609/23SMU3TCU33TCU -24TCU68.0Under
201509/19TCU56SMU37TCU -38SMU68.5Over
201409/27SMU0TCU56TCU -31TCU0
201309/28TCU48SMU17TCU -19.5TCU0
201209/29SMU16TCU24
201110/01TCU33SMU40
201009/24SMU24TCU41
200910/03TCU39SMU14
200809/20SMU7TCU48
200709/22TCU21SMU7
200509/10SMU21TCU10
200409/11TCU44SMU0
200311/29SMU13TCU20
200209/14TCU17SMU6
200109/08SMU10TCU38
200011/23SMU7TCU62
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU1976 Overs
SMU554 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams13 - 118 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#22) SMU at (#30) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUTCU
Power RatePwr #22 #30
SP+SP+ #44 #33
Perf GradeGrade #35 #45
OffenseOff #35 #46
DefenseDef #21 #35
Spec TeamsST #78 #51
TalentTal #64 #29
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #31

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential

TCU Notes
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
(5/19) LB core could be best in B12 led by Obiazor
(5/19) OC Briles has QB Hoover for a 3rd year
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #35
SuccessSuc #58 #51
ExplosiveExp #15 #115
PPAPPA #36 #93
PowerPwr #30 #40
SP+SP+ #29 #52
Pts POPPO #49 #58
HavocHav #99 #47
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #124 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #18
Run ExplRExp #43 #56
PPAExp #72 #71
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #100
Stuff RateStuff #71 #120
TackleTak -  #13
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #35 #54
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #102
Pass ExplPExl #49 #118
PPAExp #23 #95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #129
F7 HavocF7 #98 #32
DB HavocDB #93 #69
TCU on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatTCU OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #46 #21
SuccessSuc #47 #59
ExplosiveExp #9 #58
PPAPPA #28 #18
PowerPwr #25 #20
SP+SP+ #25 #59
Pts POPPO #35 #3
HavocHav #92 #11
TCU Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
TCU OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #66 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #32
Run ExplRExp #113 #28
PPAExp #91 #12
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #122 #29
Stuff RateStuff #132 #8
TackleTak -  #23
TCU Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatTCU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #51 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #83
Pass ExplPExl #11 #52
PPAExp #27 #30
Pass Block/RushP Blk #64 #60
F7 HavocF7 #84 #51
DB HavocDB #97 #2
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 88° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 4
TCU -6.5 (63.5)
TCU won vs SMU this year (35-24)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat TCU last year (66-42)
TCU beat SMU in 2023 (34-17)
TCU beat SMU in 2022 (42-34)

  
SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings13719172%16581568.7
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)8541554.940
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)2822628.187
Dramekco Green185513.113
Derrick McFall123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Romello Brinson32484315.175
Jalen Cooper15271218.175
Jordan Hudson15203213.537
Yamir Knight (Tr)2119029.034

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Ahmaad Moses444100
Brandon Booker331130
Cam Robertson318532
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Robertson318532
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)225400
Terry Webb (Tr)203301
Isaiah Smith227321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Brandon Miyazono212105
Deuce Harmon190004

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover13921565%18931868.8
Ken Seals4667%24014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)4928515.875
Trent Battle2915935.528
Jeremy Payne3113224.329
Nate Palmer189305.226
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister21541725.885
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)25357214.333
Joseph Manjack21309214.751
D'Andre Rogers19196110.339

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson482001
Kaleb Elarms-Orr485331
Namdi Obiazor452211
Bud Clark290015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr485331
Namdi Obiazor452211
Devean Deal233221
Kylin Jackson (Tr)154210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark290015
Vernon Glover131002
Jevon McIver Jr.121002