SMU at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
SMU 2nd straight Road Game
TCU 2nd straight Home Game
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -0.5   (SP+ SMU -2)
Projected Score: SMU: 29 - TCU: 29 (59)
TCU Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
SMU Travel: 35 miles
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#37)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-37
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-6.5
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-10.5
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-21.5
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+14.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-17.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+4
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-2.559.0
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-35
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-0.5
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+6
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-9.5
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State+6
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-4.5
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-10
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-3
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU-2.5
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-8
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)36.544% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)22.139% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)33.545% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)24.646% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52944.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24
TCU Defense1324.623.341.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
TCU Offense1333.536.747.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.52 #23
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.38 #38
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.86 #20
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.1 #20
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #11
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #42

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.18
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.52   TCU: 13.94

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.1   TCU: 11.1




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 13.94 #30
TCU's Offense Rating: 22.33 #21
TCU's Defense Rating: 10.55 #42
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #29
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 29
SMU 29

Projected Total Points: 59
TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21SMU66TCU42SMUTCU -1SMU58.5Over
202309/23TCU34SMU17TCUTCU -7TCU63.5Under
202209/24SMU34TCU42TCUTCU -2.5TCU72.0Over
202109/25TCU34SMU42SMUTCU -8SMU66.0Over
201909/21TCU38SMU41SMUTCU -7.5SMU54.5Over
201809/07SMU12TCU42TCUTCU -23.5TCU59.5Under
201709/16TCU56SMU36TCUTCU -22SMU64.5Over
201609/23SMU3TCU33TCUTCU -24TCU68.0Under
201509/19TCU56SMU37TCUTCU -38SMU68.5Over
201409/27SMU0TCU56TCUTCU -31TCU0
201309/28TCU48SMU17TCUTCU -19.5TCU0
201209/29SMU16TCU24TCU
201110/01TCU33SMU40SMU
201009/24SMU24TCU41TCU
200910/03TCU39SMU14TCU
200809/20SMU7TCU48TCU
200709/22TCU21SMU7TCU
200509/10SMU21TCU10SMU
200409/11TCU44SMU0TCU
200311/29SMU13TCU20TCU
200209/14TCU17SMU6TCU
200109/08SMU10TCU38TCU
200011/23SMU7TCU62TCU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU1866 Overs
SMU553 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 133 - 82 - 41 - 4
Road Teams13 - 108 - 34 - 14 - 2

(#23) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.52 #23
Offense Rating: 19.38 #38
Defense Rating: 5.86 #20
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.1 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #42
Talent Rating: 776.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


SMU Notes
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
(5/3) WRs Hudson/Brinson top 2, Knight (JMU) slot
(5/2) S Isaiah Nwokobia rated top 10 S via PFF
(4/4) TE Maryland great weapon, top 10 PFF, hurt LY.
SMU     Ratings Matchup     TCU
Power #23
#30
Off #38
#21
Def #20
#42
Talent #51
#30
SP+ #20
#29
SP+ Off #11
#19
SP+ Def #42
#37

Previous Matchups
SMU beat TCU last year (66-42)
TCU beat SMU in 2023 (34-17)
TCU beat SMU in 2022 (42-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | TCU
Depth Chart: SMU | TCU
Rosters: SMU | TCU
(#30) TCU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.94 #30
Offense Rating: 22.33 #21
Defense Rating: 10.55 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #37
Talent Rating: 854.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


TCU Notes
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
(5/19) LB core could be best in B12 led by Obiazor
(5/19) OC Briles has QB Hoover for a 3rd year
(5/2) S Bud Clark led all CFB S in coverage, big talent
(3/24) WR Dwyer (Idaho) a great find/weapon
(3/19) QB Hoover a top in CFB, can depth play?
(3/19) RB rebuild, added Barnes (UTSA), we'll see
(3/19) WR McAlister good, talent/#'s should find 2/3
(3/19) Def OK LY, lacked playmakers. Some exp.
(3/19) Dykes quietly got to 9 W's LY.


  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)12450524.140
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)63105.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight (Tr)52605411.668
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
TJ Harden (Tr)4036819.253
Matthew Hibner24368415.380

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Zakye Barker (Tr)8112211
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith319761
Cam Robertson296330
Jahkai Lang (Tr)122200
Zakye Barker (Tr)8112211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon282006
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Isaiah Nwokobia953123

TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover31347167%394927118.4
Ken Seals101377%97107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne5423934.432
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)7822122.817
Trent Battle4418624.224
Jordyn Bailey374124.759
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)7110261014.555
Eric McAlister39762519.584
Joseph Manjack22351316.057
D'Andre Rogers12142211.840

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Andy Avalos
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Namdi Obiazor817321
Jamel Johnson722003
Bud Clark680003
Kaleb Elarms-Orr545220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ansel Din-Mbuh (Tr)247620
Devean Deal4610631
Zachary Chapman243310
Namdi Obiazor817321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson473009
Jevon McIver Jr.120004
Bud Clark680003