South Florida at Navy Game Matchup
South Florida logo South Florida Bulls at Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#46)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -3   (SP+ NAVY -3)
Projected Score: USF: 33 - NAVY: 30 (58)
USF Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
USF Travel: 835 miles
Midshipmen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (39 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 South Florida vs Boise State+9.50.0
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+21.5
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+22
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-24
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-23.5
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas-6
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-17
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis+4
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-2.5
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-3
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-12.5
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-19.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Navy vs VMI-19
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-12.5
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.5
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-9.5
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-11
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-11.5
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas-0.5
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+33
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+3
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-1

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)32.239% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)29.838% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.346% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)22.246% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1332.234.338.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17
NAVY Defense1322.225.641.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1329.831.839.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
NAVY Offense1331.338.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 4.64 #53
South Florida's Offense Rating: 16.82 #49
South Florida's Defense Rating: 12.18 #55
2025 Talent Rating: 850.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #77
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #44
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 4.64   Navy: -2.19

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -3.5   Navy: -1.0




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -2.19 #89
Navy's Offense Rating: 12.66 #78
Navy's Defense Rating: 21.04 #104
2025 Talent Rating: 108.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #68
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #71

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 33
Navy 30

Projected Total Points: 58
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09South Florida7Navy28NavyNavy -4.5Navy59.5Under
202309/30Navy30South Florida44South FloridaNavy -4South Florida54.0Over
201910/19Navy35South Florida3NavyNavy -15.5Navy52.0Under
201610/28South Florida52Navy45South FloridaSouth Florida -9Navy66.0Over
201510/31Navy29South Florida17NavyNavy -11Navy51.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy342 Overs
South Florida213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 32 - 20 - 1
Road Teams2 - 33 - 21 - 02 - 2

(#53) South Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.64 #53
Offense Rating: 16.82 #49
Defense Rating: 12.18 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 850.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 38%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


South Florida Notes
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) RB rebuild. Norton (Char) added, some depth
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff
South Florida     Ratings Matchup     Navy
Power #53
#89
Off #49
#78
Def #55
#104
Talent #32
#136
SP+ #77
#68
SP+ Off #44
#58
SP+ Def #107
#71

Previous Matchups
Navy beat South Florida last year (28-7)
South Florida beat Navy in 2023 (44-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USF | NAVY
Depth Chart: USF | NAVY
Rosters: USF | NAVY
(#89) Navy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.19 #89
Offense Rating: 12.66 #78
Defense Rating: 21.04 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #68
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #71
Talent Rating: 108.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Navy Notes
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
(5/25) ND game cost them Rice game, check USF TY
(3/24) Def some exp, always play tough, but size/speed


  
South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Archie17229059%19149106.6
Byrum Brown7813259%836206.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cartevious Norton (Tr)12952574.162
Byrum Brown6826934.042
Bryce Archie6813722.035
Sam Franklin (Tr)1813207.334
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton27428315.967
Joshua Porter2421008.832
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)13155211.938
Chas Nimrod (Tr)10121012.127

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris8212462
Tavin Ward612003
Rocco Nicholl (Tr)611032
Jhalyn Shuler607441
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris8212462
Chavez Brown (Tr)498410
Jhalyn Shuler607441
Ira Singleton123310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Shawn Rucker412007
Ben Knox221106
Izaiah Guy (Tr)300005

Navy's OC Drew Cronic
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8013958%13531349.7
Braxton Woodson183650%243226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath1761254177.195
Alex Tecza12355684.565
Eli Heidenreich6544436.860
Brandon Chatman4825035.220
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich39671617.274
Brandon Chatman18257414.346
Alex Tecza12229219.146
Nathan Kent10222222.277

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Pirris686351
Landon Robinson616570
Jaxson Campbell585324
Kenneth McShan341030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson616570
Luke Pirris686351
Jaxson Campbell585324
MarcAnthony Parker82200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxson Campbell585324
Andrew Duhart292004
Ira Oniha121003