South Florida at Navy - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo   South Florida Bulls at Navy Midshipmen  Navy logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
South Florida -8.5 (62.5) (-340)  Open: -10.5 | 63.5
Navy 41 - South Florida: 38  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -9.5  (SP+ USF -5.5)

Projected Score: USF: 36 - NAVY: 27 (63)
USF Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
USF Travel: 835 miles
Midshipmen (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 2.8 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Navy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Navy vs VMI-42.554.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Navy vs UAB-20.559.0W 38 - 24ON
Sat 9/13 Navy at Tulsa-14.052.5W 42 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Navy vs Rice-14.045.5W 21 - 13UN
Sat 10/4 Navy vs Air Force-13.550.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 10/11 Navy at Temple-10.052.5W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Navy vs Florida Atlantic-14.563.5W 42 - 32ON
Sat 11/1 Navy at North Texas+6.568.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 Navy at Notre Dame+30.554.5L 10 - 49ON
Sat 11/15 Navy vs South Florida+8.562.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27 Navy at Memphis+3.557.5W 28 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Navy vs Army-6.038.0W 17 - 16UN
Fri 1/2 Navy vs Cincinnati-7.557.5W 35 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)40.539% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)23.438% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.546% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)2546% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1340.53538.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17
NAVY Defense132524.241.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1323.432.339.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
NAVY Offense1331.53844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 11.22  #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51  #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29  #54
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.22   Navy: 2.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6   Navy: 6.2




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.125  #86
Navy's Offense Rating: 13.60  #64
Navy's Defense Rating: 20.55  #113
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 2.8
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #46
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #26
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 36
Navy 27


Projected Total Points: 63
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Navy41South Florida38South Florida -8.5Navy62.5Over
202411/09South Florida7Navy28Navy -4.5Navy59.5Under
202309/30Navy30South Florida44Navy -4South Florida54.0Over
201910/19Navy35South Florida3Navy -15.5Navy52.0Under
201610/28South Florida52Navy45South Florida -9Navy66.0Over
201510/31Navy29South Florida17Navy -11Navy51.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy453 Overs
South Florida213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 23 - 32 - 21 - 1
Road Teams2 - 43 - 31 - 12 - 2

(#40) USF at (#86) NAVY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFNAVY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #40 #86
SP+SP+ #29 #46
Perf GradeGrade #38 #62
OffenseOff #27 #29
DefenseDef #61 #111
Spec TeamsST #85 #82
TalentTal #30 #136
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #101
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
Navy Notes
(11/28) A gauntlet November ends w/ 2-2 record. Impressive
(11/28) 2 straight wins w/ impressive Def improvement.
(11/16) Run over by ND, Horvath didn't play. Def ugly
(11/16) Come back and kill USF? Mids are wild, AAC threat
(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
Navy Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffNAVY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #111
SuccessSuc #118 #61
ExplosiveExp #10 #28
PPAPPA #83 #28
PowerPwr #18 #113
SP+SP+ #12 #72
Pts POPPO #74 #35
HavocHav #57 #104
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #19 #107
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #95
Run ExplRExp #3 #39
PPAExp #32 #89
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #107
Stuff RateStuff #45 #122
TackleTak -  #133
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #8 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #24
Pass ExplPExl #109 #51
PPAExp #113 #8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #18 #55
F7 HavocF7 #62 #101
DB HavocDB #68 #89
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCatNAVY OffUSF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #29 #61
SuccessSuc #51 #36
ExplosiveExp #11 #115
PPAPPA #12 #66
PowerPwr #64 #54
SP+SP+ #26 #62
Pts POPPO #26 #88
HavocHav #6 #15
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #25 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #17
Run ExplRExp #7 #121
PPAExp #10 #26
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #18
Stuff RateStuff #14 #10
TackleTak -  #132
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 76%, Pass: 23%
CategoryCatNAVY OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #34 #71
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #69
Pass ExplPExl #3 #78
PPAExp #15 #89
Pass Block/RushP Blk #115 #8
F7 HavocF7 #28 #11
DB HavocDB #4 #46
Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
South Florida 8.5 (62.5)
Navy won vs South Florida this year (41-38)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat South Florida last year (41-38)
Navy beat South Florida in 2024 (28-7)
South Florida beat Navy in 2023 (44-30)

  
USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath9715961%15801269.9
Braxton Woodson91947%110005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath2241200165.459
Alex Tecza158902105.776
Eli Heidenreich7749936.525
Brandon Chatman5743137.636
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich51941618.582
Brandon Chatman1715909.427
Luke Hutchison5134326.863
Cody Howard4128132.065

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MarcAnthony Parker977240
Giuseppe Sessi811000
Luke Pirris787443
Coleman Cauley783030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson648670
Julian Moutome428423
Adam Klenk335451
Luke Pirris787443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ira Oniha241007
Justin Ross322134
Luke Pirris787443