South Florida at Navy - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD (American Athletic)

Bulls (7 - 2) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 42 - 24 (31 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 2.3 (#18)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -9 (SP+ USF -3.5)
Projected Score: USF: 39 - NAVY: 30 (68)
USF Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USF Travel: 835 miles

Midshipmen (7 - 1) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach Brian Newberry (14 - 10)
Avg Score : 35 - 24 (37 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	South Florida vs Boise State	+8.5	63.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+18.5	58.0	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+17.5	56.5	L 12 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-36.0	56.5	W 63 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-28.5	54.5	W 54 - 26	O	N
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	+2.5	68.5	W 63 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-20.5	72.5	W 48 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-14.0	66.5	W 55 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-9
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-25.5
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-26.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Navy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Navy vs VMI	-42.5	54.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Navy vs UAB	-20.5	59.0	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/13	Navy at Tulsa	-14.0	52.5	W 42 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Navy vs Rice	-14.0	45.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/4	Navy vs Air Force	-13.5	50.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/11	Navy at Temple	-10.0	52.5	W 32 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Navy vs Florida Atlantic	-14.5	63.5	W 42 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/1	Navy at North Texas	+6.5	68.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/8	Navy at Notre Dame	+30.5	54.5
Sat 11/15	Navy vs South Florida	+9
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/27	Navy at Memphis	+12
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13	Navy vs Army	-8

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#24 (.28)	45% (36)	42	46% (43)	3.35 (14)	201	44% (54)	232	4.42 (32)	#19 (.04)	39% (33)	24.2	39% (32)	39% (47)	3.65 (65)	56.3	1.2	1.9
NAVY	#6 (.36)	52% (5)	34.8	55% (3)	3.78 (1)	318	45% (41)	149	4.38 (34)	#108 (.21)	43% (93)	24	43% (77)	44% (101)	3.95 (94)	53.1	1.1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)		46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)		46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	9	42	31	45.2%	4.42	1.2	21	433	201	232	5.7	51%	48%	46%	44%	14%	.28
NAVY Defense	8	24	21.4	43.3%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	43%	44%	14%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	9	24.2	33.8	38.8%	3.65	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	39%	39%	17%	.04
NAVY Offense	8	34.8	37.4	52.4%	4.38	1.1	21	467	318	149	6.7	75%	24%	55%	45%	9%	.36

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	9	22:52	21.4	48%	60%	5.9	56.3	1.2	1.9	6	2.1	2	30.5
Navy	8	31:57	21.4	54%	67%	6.3	53.1	1.1	1.3	5.3	2.4	0	31.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	9	51% (58)	46% (43)	35.3	200.7	5.7	19 (30)	.2 (28)	3.35 (14)	80% (16)	7% (16)	1.05 (32)
NAVY Defense	8	51% (80)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.13 (98)	2.77 (72)	76% (102)	9% (85)	1 (87)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	9	41% (3)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	-.11 (4)	2.55 (47)	75% (93)	11% (32)	0.81 (10)
NAVY Offense	8	75% (2)	55% (3)	47.6	318	6.7	30 (4)	.36 (2)	3.78 (1)	77% (35)	7% (10)	1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	9	48% (77)	44% (54)	18.4	29	232.4	8	12.6	19 (8)	6 (60)	.36 (33)	1.6 (52)	30% (44)	28% (87)	.4 (40)	6% (89)	2.3 (9)
NAVY Defense	8	48% (53)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (100)	.34 (109)	1.5 (62)	31% (84)	33% (110)	.25 (58)	5% (106)	1.7 (15)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	9	58% (134)	39% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (6)	.2 (55)	1.5 (64)	36% (13)	27% (41)	.19 (31)	6% (73)	1.7 (12)
NAVY Offense	8	24% (135)	45% (41)	9	14.4	149	10.4	16.6	7 (106)	5 (20)	.47 (11)	1.9 (4)	21% (2)	35% (36)	.61 (5)	2% (2)	2.3 (13)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 17.65 #27
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.13 #24
South Florida's Defense Rating: 1.48 #34
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9 #37
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #22
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #63

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 17.65 Navy: 5.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 9.9 Navy: 6.2

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 5.025 #76
Navy's Offense Rating: 14.95 #41
Navy's Defense Rating: 16.10 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 116.00 #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Navy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Navy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2 #50
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #22
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #84

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 24.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.8

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 39
Navy 30

Total Points: 68

Based on Last 4 Games
South Florida 40
Navy 33

Total Points: 73

Based on Entire Season
Navy 33
South Florida 30

Total Points: 63

Navy Scoring
Offense: 34.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.4
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Navy's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	South Florida	7	Navy	28	Navy -4.5	Navy	59.5	Under
2023	09/30	Navy	30	South Florida	44	Navy -4	South Florida	54.0	Over
2019	10/19	Navy	35	South Florida	3	Navy -15.5	Navy	52.0	Under
2016	10/28	South Florida	52	Navy	45	South Florida -9	Navy	66.0	Over
2015	10/31	Navy	29	South Florida	17	Navy -11	Navy	51.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	3	4	2 Overs
South Florida	2	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 3	2 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	3 - 2	1 - 0	2 - 2

(#27) USF at (#76) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	NAVY
Power RatePwr	#27	#76
SP+SP+	#37	#50
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#29
OffenseOff	#40	#8
DefenseDef	#92	#94
Spec TeamsST	#71	#35
TalentTal	#30	#136
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#101

South Florida Notes(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
South Florida Injury Report

Navy Notes(10/30) CB J Ross missed FAU game, very imp vs N Tex
(10/12) Keep eaking out close wins vs meh. But 6-0 w/ bad D
(9/24) Run Off good as ever, Horvath & Tecza good duo
(9/24) Def has been OK, good Success #'s but Expl issues
(7/28) Fav'd in 1st 8 games, but final four are rough
(5/25) QB Horvath back, 30 TDs LY, Woodson #2 some exp
(5/25) FB Tecza back, WB Heidenreich/Chatman back
(5/25) IOL back, need new OT's. Check fall roster
(5/25) DL very light, overall D very light (usual for Navy)
(5/25) DBs return 1 CB, rest have <150 snaps. Unclear
(5/25) OC Cronic was a revelation LY, has Horvath back
(5/25) Newberry incredible job, near top AAC LY
Navy Injury Report

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	NAVY Def
Perf GradePerf	#40	#94
SuccessSuc	#36	#93
ExplosiveExp	#38	#68
PPAPPA	#24	#108
PowerPwr	#24	#115
SP+SP+	#22	#84
Pts POPPO	#32	#94
HavocHav	#43	#107

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#35	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#77
Run ExplRExp	#32	#87
PPAExp	#28	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#5	#56
TackleTak	-	#125

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	USF Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#52	#62
PPAExp	#33	#109
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#35
F7 HavocF7	#16	#85
DB HavocDB	#89	#106

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	USF Def
Perf GradePerf	#8	#92
SuccessSuc	#5	#33
ExplosiveExp	#60	#57
PPAPPA	#6	#19
PowerPwr	#41	#34
SP+SP+	#22	#63
Pts POPPO	#34	#65
HavocHav	#1	#41

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#2	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#32
Run ExplRExp	#26	#10
PPAExp	#2	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#8
TackleTak	-	#134

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 75%, Pass: 24%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#4	#64
PPAExp	#11	#55
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#85	#48
F7 HavocF7	#10	#32
DB HavocDB	#2	#73

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Navy beat South Florida last year (28-7)
South Florida beat Navy in 2023 (44-30)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	168	260	65%	2203	19	6	8.5
Gaston Moore (Tr)	12	16	75%	48	0	0	3.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	129	705	9	5.5	44
Nykahi Davenport	56	397	5	7.1	60
Sam Franklin (Tr)	55	374	4	6.8	73
Alvon Isaac	51	250	0	4.9	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	33	573	5	17.4	66
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	23	466	3	20.3	55
Jeremiah Koger	19	355	5	18.7	63
Christian Neptune	28	228	1	8.1	32

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	75	8	6	6	0
Jhalyn Shuler	69	7	2	3	7
Tavin Ward	52	1	0	0	2
De'Shawn Rucker	41	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	75	8	6	6	0
Jarvis Lee Jr.	41	11	3	4	1
Jacob Merrifield (Tr)	16	3	2	0	1
Ricardo Watson	31	5	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	69	7	2	3	7
James Chenault	32	1	0	0	4
Jonas Duclona (Tr)	21	2	1	0	3

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	68	106	64%	1143	7	5	10.8
Braxton Woodson	4	8	50%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	138	926	13	6.7	59
Alex Tecza	90	523	6	5.8	65
Brandon Chatman	41	360	2	8.8	36
Eli Heidenreich	49	342	3	7.0	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	31	575	4	18.5	80
Cody Howard	4	128	1	32.0	65
Brandon Chatman	13	124	0	9.5	26
Luke Hutchison	4	104	2	26.0	63

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MarcAnthony Parker	68	6	2	2	0
Luke Pirris	59	4	2	3	2
Giuseppe Sessi	50	1	0	0	0
Landon Robinson	42	7	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Robinson	42	7	5	5	0
Adam Klenk	20	4	3	5	1
Griffen Willis	35	5	3	2	1
Julian Moutome	23	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	PD
Ira Oniha	22	7
Phillip Hamilton	33	2
Bryce Allen	12	2