Vanderbilt at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Vanderbilt logo (#9)Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns(#20)Texas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas -3.5 (48.5) (-175)  Open: -3.5
Texas 34 - Vanderbilt: 31  (SEC)

 
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
TEX is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -2.5  (SP+ VAN -6)

Projected Score: VAN: 25 - TEX: 23 (48)
TEX Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
VAN Travel: 749 miles
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN#1 (.46)53% (1)38.551% (9)3.35 (11)17257% (2)2615.06 (1)#95 (.2)41% (63)22.840% (47)43% (77)3.8 (80)55.60.91.1
TEX#77 (.16)40% (102)30.542% (90)2.83 (87)12039% (102)2343.4 (97)#44 (.11)40% (47)20.338% (25)41% (63)3.82 (85)61.80.61.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)42% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)46% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Offense1338.53353.5%5.060.9224331722615.948%50%51%57%13%.46
TEX Defense1320.31739.8%3.821.5 - - - - - 44%55%38%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Defense1322.82341.3%3.81.1 - - - - - 43%55%40%43%17%.2
TEX Offense1330.538.839.9%3.40.617354120234447%51%42%39%16%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Vanderbilt1329:1022.553%59%6.155.60.91.15.82.2130.2
Texas1326:2517.240%47%7.461.80.61.55.72.8231.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Offense1348% (77)51% (9)29.21725.934 (4).36 (1)3.35 (11)76% (38)8% (29)1.21 (2)
TEX Defense1344% (11)38% (25) - - - - -.02 (11)2.59 (15)50% (2)11% (20)0.82 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Defense1343% (6)40% (47) - - - - .04 (29)2.74 (40)73% (80)11% (20)0.89 (33)
TEX Offense1347% (92)42% (90)30119.9414 (88).06 (97)2.83 (87)67% (102)10% (94)0.88 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Offense1350% (58)57% (2)19.527.8260.69.413.328 (22)8 (34).58 (2)1.5 (83)26% (9)51% (1).8 (1)5% (25)2 (78)
TEX Defense1355% (127)41% (63) - - - - - - 13 (12).24 (66)1.5 (37)32% (57)29% (70).27 (64)7% (41)1.8 (21)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Defense1355% (131)43% (77) - - - - - - 7 (75).33 (104)1.5 (60)34% (26)30% (72).34 (96)6% (68)2 (63)
TEX Offense1351% (45)39% (102)18.229.7233.77.912.826 (50)7 (60).28 (56)1.8 (10)33% (93)32% (53).4 (32)6% (59)2.2 (19)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 23.46  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 30.58  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 7.12  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.9  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #4
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #32

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 23.46   Texas: 19.445

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 20.9   Texas: 14.8




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 19.445  #19
Texas's Offense Rating: 16.15  #33
Texas's Defense Rating: -2.94  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8  #22
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #38
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 25
Texas 23


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas 20
Vanderbilt 16

Total Points: 36

Based on Entire Season
Texas 29
Vanderbilt 27

Total Points: 56
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Texas34Vanderbilt31Texas -3.5Vanderbilt48.5Over
202410/26Vanderbilt24Texas27Texas -17.0Vanderbilt50.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas202 Overs
Vanderbilt020 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#12) VAN at (#19) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatVANTEX
Power RatePwr #12 #19
SP+SP+ #11 #22
Perf GradeGrade #27 #14
OffenseOff #25 #30
DefenseDef #56 #22
Spec TeamsST #19 #42
TalentTal #47 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #6
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTEX Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #22
SuccessSuc #1 #47
ExplosiveExp #14 #27
PPAPPA #1 #44
PowerPwr #2 #22
SP+SP+ #4 #17
Pts POPPO #1 #85
HavocHav #22 #25
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #15 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #25
Run ExplRExp #2 #9
PPAExp #1 #11
Run BlockR Blk #90 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #15
Stuff RateStuff #29 #30
TackleTak -  #18
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #4 #50
Pass SuccessPSuc #2 #63
Pass ExplPExl #83 #37
PPAExp #2 #66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #129 #8
F7 HavocF7 #29 #20
DB HavocDB #25 #41
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffVAN Def
Perf GradePerf #30 #56
SuccessSuc #102 #63
ExplosiveExp #16 #90
PPAPPA #77 #95
PowerPwr #33 #62
SP+SP+ #38 #32
Pts POPPO #97 #80
HavocHav #73 #35
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #78 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #90 #47
Run ExplRExp #106 #33
PPAExp #97 #29
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #40
Stuff RateStuff #119 #40
TackleTak -  #104
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #20 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #77
Pass ExplPExl #10 #60
PPAExp #56 #104
Pass Block/RushP Blk #70 #62
F7 HavocF7 #94 #20
DB HavocDB #59 #68
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 65°
Rematch from Week 10
Texas -3.5 (48.5)
Texas won vs Vanderbilt this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Vanderbilt last year (27-24)

  
VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia24234071%31922789.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia15282695.441
Sedrick Alexander103563115.565
Makhilyn Young4440769.380
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Tre Richardson (Tr)41683616.771
Junior Sherrill46661714.440
Richie Hoskins26305311.753

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Longwell679142
C.J. Heard (Tr)644253
Langston Patterson611030
Randon Fontenette487056
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers359531
Zaylin Wood265461
Nicholas Rinaldi427491
Khordae Sydnor299483
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette487056
Khordae Sydnor299483
C.J. Heard (Tr)644253

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning22737061%29422478.0
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning8324482.936
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Jerrick Gibson3715214.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo50770715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone26491618.983
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)23357315.540

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald734013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons411411152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)185320
Trey Moore345363
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips140005
Graceson Littleton403005
Malik Muhammad303114