Vanderbilt at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Vanderbilt logo   Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns  Texas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas -3.5 (48.5) (-175)  Open: -3.5
Texas 34 - Vanderbilt: 31  (SEC)

 
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
TEX is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas -0  (SP+ VAN -4)

Projected Score: VAN: 26 - TEX: 26 (52)
TEX Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
VAN Travel: 749 miles
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)38.542% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)22.846% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)30.549% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)20.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Offense1338.53342.2%4.250.5172951291663.958%42%42%43%15%.17
TEX Defense1620.31738%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Defense1322.82346.9%4.221.1 - - - - - 49%51%46%48%16%.25
TEX Offense1630.538.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Vanderbilt1328:3916.644%54%548.30.51.14.81.7431.3
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Offense1358% (18)42% (93)33.1129.23.916 (90).06 (104)2.8 (105)83% (10)8% (41)0.87 (116)
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Defense1349% (47)46% (96) - - - - .12 (70)2.98 (62)77% (88)10% (76)0.89 (30)
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Offense1342% (115)43% (53)12.821.8166.37.61318 (68)4 (1).33 (33)1.7 (37)33% (108)31% (74).32 (75)7% (96)2.1 (64)
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Defense1351% (90)48% (125) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (120)1.5 (33)29% (111)36% (122).45 (117)7% (48)2.1 (72)
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 18.41  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 27.73  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 9.32  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.3  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #5
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 18.41   Texas: 19.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 20.3   Texas: 16.2




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 19.545  #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 26
Texas 26


Projected Total Points: 52
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Texas34Vanderbilt31Texas -3.5Vanderbilt48.5Over
202410/26Vanderbilt24Texas27Texas -17.0Vanderbilt50.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas202 Overs
Vanderbilt020 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#12) VAN at (#14) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatVANTEX
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #12 #14
SP+SP+ #11 #17
Perf GradeGrade #27 #13
OffenseOff #24 #25
DefenseDef #59 #25
Spec TeamsST #16 #41
TalentTal #47 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #6
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTEX Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #24 #25
SuccessSuc #75 #22
ExplosiveExp #108 #1
PPAPPA #76 #3
PowerPwr #2 #14
SP+SP+ #5 #18
Pts POPPO #34 #3
HavocHav #52 #4
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #17 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #61
Run ExplRExp #116 #3
PPAExp #104 #3
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #33
Stuff RateStuff #117 #31
TackleTak -  #16
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #5 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #7
Pass ExplPExl #37 #14
PPAExp #33 #3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #129 #18
F7 HavocF7 #41 #8
DB HavocDB #96 #17
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffVAN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #59
SuccessSuc #27 #121
ExplosiveExp #47 #38
PPAPPA #39 #111
PowerPwr #31 #41
SP+SP+ #30 #39
Pts POPPO #54 #109
HavocHav #77 #65
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #55 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #96
Run ExplRExp #96 #30
PPAExp #69 #70
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #62
Stuff RateStuff #101 #39
TackleTak -  #106
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #15 #58
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #125
Pass ExplPExl #28 #33
PPAExp #34 #120
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #63
F7 HavocF7 #97 #76
DB HavocDB #41 #48
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Texas -3.5 (48.5)
Texas won vs Vanderbilt this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Vanderbilt last year (34-31)
Texas beat Vanderbilt in 2024 (27-24)

  
VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia26737871%35392989.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia167862105.241
Sedrick Alexander106570115.465
Makhilyn Young4541169.180
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Junior Sherrill54784714.546
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Richie Hoskins28321311.553

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253
Bryan Longwell709142
Langston Patterson692030
Marlen Sewell522112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers379531
Zaylin Wood285471
Khordae Sydnor309493
Nicholas Rinaldi477491
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette517056
Mark Davis233004
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning92399104.360
Christian Clark5523624.322
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone29516617.883
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald804013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)216320
Ethan Burke407321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips222006
Graceson Littleton463006
Malik Muhammad303114