Minnesota at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State Buckeyes(#1)Ohio State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Ohio State -23.5 (42.5) (-2800)  Open: -21.0
Ohio State 42 - Minnesota: 3  (Big Ten)

 
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (8 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Ohio State -34  (SP+ OSU -32)
Projected Score: MINN: 6 - OSU: 40 (45)
OSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
MINN Travel: 623 miles, 1 hrs behind
Buckeyes (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.545.5W 23 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.050.5W 66 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-3.041.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+23.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-7.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 10/17 Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.047.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+7.539.5L 3 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.544.5W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14 Minnesota at Oregon+26.545.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.041.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.538.5W 17 - 7UY
Fri 12/26 Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-9.552.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-23.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15.551.5W 34 - 16UY
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-24.541.5W 34 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-29.549.5W 34 - 10UN
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-33.546.5W 48 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-29.054.0W 42 - 9UY
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-9.543.5W 27 - 9UY
Sat 12/6 Ohio State vs Indiana-5.548.5L 10 - 13UN
Wed 12/31 Ohio State vs Miami-7.539.5L 14 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#95 (.13)40% (100)2339% (111)2.62 (124)9541% (77)1793.79 (60)#96 (.2)45% (115)22.943% (79)47% (124)3.84 (87)24.30.61.2
OSU#9 (.33)52% (3)33.446% (44)2.97 (64)15259% (1)2484.99 (2)#3 (-.03)34% (5)9.330% (2)37% (28)2.55 (6)37.40.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense13238.339.9%3.790.616274951793.641%57%39%41%16%.13
OSU Defense149.37.433.6%2.550.9 - - - - - 47%51%30%37%17%-.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1322.93845.2%3.841.2 - - - - - 46%53%43%47%18%.2
OSU Offense1433.441.652.4%4.990.6213991522484.849%50%46%59%11%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1327:0715.839%42%3.124.30.61.26.52.7230.7
Ohio State1431:0621.454%65%3.937.40.60.95.32.4129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1341% (126)39% (111)26.495.43.614 (88).02 (115)2.62 (124)73% (63)9% (46)0.89 (102)
OSU Defense1447% (42)30% (2) - - - - -.1 (5)2.37 (7)60% (9)12% (18)0.83 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1346% (19)43% (79) - - - - .14 (91)2.86 (63)73% (80)13% (6)0.98 (84)
OSU Offense1449% (67)46% (44)31.9151.64.824 (60).07 (88)2.97 (64)72% (69)7% (10)0.77 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1357% (11)41% (77)17.928.5178.66.31017 (61)7 (34).22 (83)1.4 (120)33% (96)28% (92).2 (108)7% (114)1.8 (125)
OSU Defense1451% (99)37% (28) - - - - - - 8 (100).03 (5)1.2 (1)38% (5)23% (4).08 (5)5% (101)1.7 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1353% (118)47% (124) - - - - - - 8 (38).25 (74)1.5 (35)30% (100)36% (129).42 (123)5% (122)2 (56)
OSU Offense1450% (65)59% (1)20.826.6247.79.311.932 (22)6 (20).6 (1)1.4 (111)24% (3)40% (5).57 (6)4% (12)1.9 (92)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -2.21  #77
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 8.86  #68
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 11.07  #83
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8%  #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -2.21   Ohio State: 32.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 0.4   Ohio State: 32.4




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.925  #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 32.33  #1
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -17.85  #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.4  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #5
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.0  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.3
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 40
Minnesota 6


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 34
Minnesota 15

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 34
Minnesota 12

Total Points: 46
Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Ohio State42Minnesota3Ohio State -23.5Ohio State42.5Over
202311/18Ohio State37Minnesota3Ohio State -27.5Ohio State51.5Under
202109/02Minnesota31Ohio State45Ohio State -14NA62.0Over
201810/13Ohio State30Minnesota14Ohio State -29.5Minnesota60.5Under
201511/07Ohio State28Minnesota14Ohio State -23Minnesota53.0Under
201411/15Minnesota24Ohio State31Ohio State -14.5Minnesota0
201010/30Minnesota10Ohio State52
200910/24Ohio State38Minnesota7
200809/27Ohio State34Minnesota21
200709/29Minnesota7Ohio State30
200610/28Ohio State44Minnesota0
200510/29Minnesota31Ohio State45
200211/02Ohio State34Minnesota3
200111/03Minnesota28Ohio State31
200010/13Ohio State17Minnesota29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State1422 Overs
Minnesota133 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 73 - 22 - 21 - 0
Road Teams7 - 82 - 30 - 12 - 2

(#77) MINN at (#1) OSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMINNOSU
Power RatePwr #77 #1
SP+SP+ #70 #1
Perf GradeGrade #60 #2
OffenseOff #48 #2
DefenseDef #110 #3
Spec TeamsST #1 #22
TalentTal #19 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #44 #2
Minnesota Notes
(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report
Ohio State Notes
(11/15) WR2 Carnell Tate out for season (calf injury)
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Ohio State Injury Report
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #3
SuccessSuc #100 #5
ExplosiveExp #99 #2
PPAPPA #95 #3
PowerPwr #68 #1
SP+SP+ #92 #1
Pts POPPO #60 #6
HavocHav #73 #53
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #53 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #2
Run ExplRExp #102 #12
PPAExp #115 #5
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #7
Stuff RateStuff #95 #9
TackleTak -  #5
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #44 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #28
Pass ExplPExl #120 #1
PPAExp #83 #5
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #50 #42
F7 HavocF7 #46 #18
DB HavocDB #114 #101
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatOSU OffMINN Def
Perf GradePerf #2 #110
SuccessSuc #3 #115
ExplosiveExp #125 #74
PPAPPA #9 #96
PowerPwr #1 #83
SP+SP+ #5 #44
Pts POPPO #2 #87
HavocHav #5 #31
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #25 #104
Run SuccessRSuc #44 #79
Run ExplRExp #132 #84
PPAExp #88 #91
Run BlockR Blk #8 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #63
Stuff RateStuff #89 #54
TackleTak -  #86
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatOSU OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #1 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #124
Pass ExplPExl #111 #35
PPAExp #1 #74
Pass Block/RushP Blk #31 #98
F7 HavocF7 #10 #6
DB HavocDB #12 #122
Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Ohio State -23.5 (42.5)
Ohio State won vs Minnesota this year (42-3)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Minnesota in 2023 (37-3)

  
MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey22836163%22351666.2
Max Shikenjanski4580%801016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor11955434.771
Fame Ijeboi9744124.549
Grant Washington2113206.316
Cameron Davis (Tr)3410923.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lemeke Brockington46484410.524
Javon Tracy (Tr)35439612.545
Jalen Smith22355216.178
Darius Taylor3022207.440

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski858231
Devon Williams828311
Koi Perich773102
Kerry Brown554003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith32141171
Karter Menz278640
Jaxon Howard266410
Devon Williams828311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Nestor (Tr)476006
Kerry Brown554003
Za'Quan Bryan371013

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin27935678%33233169.3
Lincoln Kienholz111479%139109.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson168103556.264
James Peoples6134435.649
CJ Donaldson (Tr)89330103.727
Isaiah West5931025.338
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith8010861113.687
Carnell Tate48838917.557
Max Klare (Tr)43448210.439
Brandon Inniss3223737.429

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sonny Styles815143
Arvell Reese6210742
Caleb Downs605111
Caden Curry60171162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Curry60171162
Arvell Reese6210742
Kenyatta Jackson2711722
Kayden McDonald578320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun421006
Sonny Styles815143
Jaylen McClain500003