Minnesota at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State BuckeyesOhio State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Ohio Stadium - Columbus, OH  (Big Ten)

 
Golden Gophers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (23 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
Our Line: Ohio State -24   (SP+ OSU -24)
Projected Score: MINN: 11 - OSU: 35 (46)
OSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
MINN Travel: 623 miles, 1 hrs behind
Buckeyes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 13 (39 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 1.4 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
 
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-18.00.0
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-33
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-5.5
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+24
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-24.5
Sat 10/18 Minnesota vs Nebraska-1
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+4.5
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Minnesota at Oregon+19.5
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern-9
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin-4.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-3.050.5
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-38
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-20.5
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-24
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-5
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-41
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-34
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-27
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-7.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)26.244% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)16.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)35.748% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)12.939% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense1326.222.644.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2
OSU Defense1612.99.936.3%2.051.1 - - - - - 53%46%39%34%19%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1316.918.838.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
OSU Offense1635.738.751.8%4.60.817347137211549%50%48%56%12%.43

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Ohio State1624:2716.942%70%3.431.60.81.15.12.4228.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)
OSU Defense1653% (90)39% (26) - - - - .01 (15)2.9 (48)67% (33)13% (16)0.87 (20)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
OSU Offense1649% (77)48% (19)27.3136.8528 (25).31 (8)3.37 (15)76% (48)7% (7)1.11 (16)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)
OSU Defense1646% (35)34% (8) - - - - - - 9 (76).02 (2)1.5 (28)32% (74)30% (66).16 (13)6% (61)1.7 (6)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
OSU Offense1650% (60)56% (1)16.723.4210.6912.631 (6)9 (48).58 (1)1.6 (70)27% (7)37% (12).55 (6)5% (42)2.1 (41)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 13.26 #25
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 19.01 #40
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 5.75 #20
2025 Talent Rating: 894.00 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #43
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #40
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #100
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 887.89
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 13.26   Ohio State: 33.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 6.0   Ohio State: 29.5




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 33.77 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.79 #4
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.25 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1106.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 29.5 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.6 #7
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 887.89
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.6
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.8

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 35
Minnesota 11

Projected Total Points: 46
Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 12.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.9

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/18Ohio State37Minnesota3Ohio StateOhio State -27.5Ohio State51.5Under
202109/02Minnesota31Ohio State45Ohio StateOhio State -14NA62.0Over
201810/13Ohio State30Minnesota14Ohio StateOhio State -29.5Minnesota60.5Under
201511/07Ohio State28Minnesota14Ohio StateOhio State -23Minnesota53.0Under
201411/15Minnesota24Ohio State31Ohio StateOhio State -14.5Minnesota0
201010/30Minnesota10Ohio State52Ohio State
200910/24Ohio State38Minnesota7Ohio State
200809/27Ohio State34Minnesota21Ohio State
200709/29Minnesota7Ohio State30Ohio State
200610/28Ohio State44Minnesota0Ohio State
200510/29Minnesota31Ohio State45Ohio State
200211/02Ohio State34Minnesota3Ohio State
200111/03Minnesota28Ohio State31Ohio State
200010/13Ohio State17Minnesota29Minnesota
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State1311 Overs
Minnesota133 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 72 - 21 - 21 - 0
Road Teams7 - 72 - 20 - 12 - 1

(#25) Minnesota Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.26 #25
Offense Rating: 19.01 #40
Defense Rating: 5.75 #20
Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #40
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #14
Talent Rating: 894.00 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #43
Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.32 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Minnesota Notes
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
(5/2) S Koi Perch #2 via PFF, only a Soph, 5 Ints
(4/17) QB RFr Drake Lindsey starter? Pryon in portal
(4/7) OL 2/5 back, bad LY. 3 exp'd P4 portals added
(3/31) RB Taylor back, add Turner (Marsh). Looks great
(3/19) WR rebuild. 3 portal adds. Improved, how much?
(3/19) Def v good and return a lot. New DE/CB needs
(3/19) Promoted DC Collins after Hetherman (Mia)
(3/19) Fleck is a good HC. Off could jump in '25
Minnesota     Ratings Matchup     Ohio State
Power #25
#1
Off #40
#4
Def #20
#2
Talent #19
#4
SP+ #40
#1
SP+ Off #100
#7
SP+ Def #14
#2

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Minnesota in 2023 (37-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MINN | OSU
Depth Chart: MINN | OSU
Rosters: MINN | OSU
(#1) Ohio State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 33.77 #1
Offense Rating: 29.79 #4
Defense Rating: -3.25 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 29.5 #1
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.6 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.1 #2
Talent Rating: 1106.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #2
Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.6 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.05 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Ohio State Notes
(6/6) DL issue in spring, esp DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(5/24) Fr WR Quincy Porter looks like next great one
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(4/4) Portal TE Klare (Pur) top 5 TE via PFF, huge add
(4/4) LB Sonny Styles a top 10 LB via PFF
(3/21) QB1? J. Sayin likely, Fr St. Clair?
(3/20) WR Smith/Tate best 1/2 in CFB? Many options
(3/20) OL 3/5 back, both T's new. 2 portal adds
(3/20) Def great, DL rebuild. Best D talent in CFB
(3/20) New OC Hartline promotion - great recruiter


  
Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Darius Taylor11100%101010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
A.J. Turner (Tr)10486468.388
Cameron Davis (Tr)4419004.320
Fame Ijeboi21306.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Tracy (Tr)57818714.472
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Logan Loya (Tr)29348412.029
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Danny Collins
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Jeff Roberson (Tr)589370
Koi Perich463012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jeff Roberson (Tr)589370
Deven Eastern275222
Maverick Baranowski655112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Za'Quan Bryan191005
Jalen Logan-Redding272054
Kerry Brown633004

Ohio State's OC Brian Hartline
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin51242%84107.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Donaldson (Tr)163734114.548
James Peoples4919724.018
Sam Williams-Dixon75307.631
Jeremiah Smith64717.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith7613151517.370
Carnell Tate52733414.140
Max Klare (Tr)51685413.462
Brandon Inniss14176112.627

View Ohio State's Full Roster
Ohio State's DC Matt Patricia
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sonny Styles10011605
Caleb Downs818116
Davison Igbinosun452009
Arvell Reese434120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Atkinson (Tr)3512840
Sonny Styles10011605
Caden Curry224310
C.J. Hicks222211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun452009
Caleb Downs818116
Sonny Styles10011605