California at Oregon State - 2025 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -3 (51.5) (-148) Open: -3.0 | 51.5
California 34 - Oregon State: 15

Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: California -5.5 (SP+ CAL -12.5)
Projected Score: CAL: 28 - ORST: 23 (51)
ORST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
CAL Travel: 465 miles

Beavers (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	California at Oregon State	+3.0	51.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/6	California vs Texas Southern	-44.5	54.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/13	California vs Minnesota	+3.0	41.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/20	California at San Diego State	-14.0	47.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/27	California at Boston College	+6.0	54.5	W 28 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/4	California vs Duke	+3.5	54.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	California vs North Carolina	-7.5	45.5	W 21 - 18	U	N
Fri 10/24	California at Virginia Tech	+6.5	50.5	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/1	California vs Virginia	+6.5	52.5	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/8	California at Louisville	+18.5	48.5	W 29 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	California at Stanford	-4.5	47.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	California vs SMU	+13.5	53.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Wed 12/24	California at Hawai'i	+1.5	50.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon State vs California	-3.0	51.5	L 15 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Oregon State vs Fresno State	-1.0	45.5	L 27 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/13	Oregon State at Texas Tech	+24.5	61.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/20	Oregon State at Oregon	+33.5	58.5	L 7 - 41	U	N
Fri 9/26	Oregon State vs Houston	+11.5	48.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Oregon State at App State	+1.5	53.5	L 23 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	Oregon State vs Wake Forest	+1.5	47.5	L 14 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/18	Oregon State vs Lafayette	-21.0	56.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Oregon State vs Washington State	+3.5	47.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Oregon State vs Sam Houston	-21.0	52.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/15	Oregon State at Tulsa	+1.5	50.5	L 14 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Oregon State at Washington State	+14.0	42.5	L 8 - 32	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.3	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	27.2	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	17.6	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.4	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	25.3	23.7	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17
ORST Defense	12	29.4	25.3	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	27.2	29.6	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14
ORST Offense	12	17.6	21.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.00 #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12 #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00 #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #80
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #72

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 1.00 Oregon State: -6.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.2 Oregon State: -15.9

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -6.48 #73
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 8.61 #96
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 10.67 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 772.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #126
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #125
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
California 28
Oregon State 23

Projected Total Points: 51

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Oregon State	15	California	34	Oregon State -3	California	51.5	Under
2024	10/26	California	44	Oregon State	7	California -13.0	California	51.0	Push
2023	10/07	California	40	Oregon State	52	Oregon State -7.5	Oregon State	51.0	Over
2022	11/12	Oregon State	38	California	10	Oregon State -11.5	Oregon State	47.0	Over
2021	10/30	California	39	Oregon State	25	Oregon State -2.5	California	56.5	Over
2020	11/21	Oregon State	31	California	27	California -1.0	Oregon State	46.5	Over
2019	10/19	California	17	Oregon State	21	California -10	Oregon State	51.0	Under
2018	10/20	Oregon State	7	California	49	California -8.5	California	58.0	Under
2017	11/04	California	37	Oregon State	23	California -7	California	54.0	Over
2016	10/08	Oregon State	47	California	44	California -10	Oregon State	70.0	Over
2015	11/14	California	54	Oregon State	24	California -17.5	California	64.0	Over
2014	11/01	Oregon State	31	California	45	Oregon State -4.5	California	0
2013	10/19	California	17	Oregon State	49	Oregon State -7.5	Oregon State	0
2012	11/17	Oregon State	62	California	14
2011	11/12	California	23	Oregon State	6
2010	10/30	Oregon State	35	California	7
2009	11/07	California	14	Oregon State	31
2008	11/15	Oregon State	34	California	21
2007	10/13	California	28	Oregon State	31
2006	09/30	Oregon State	13	California	41
2005	10/15	California	20	Oregon State	23
2004	10/02	Oregon State	7	California	49
2003	10/04	California	21	Oregon State	35
2002	10/26	Oregon State	24	California	13
2001	10/27	Oregon State	19	California	10
2000	11/03	California	32	Oregon State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	16	6	7 Overs
California	10	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4

(#63) CAL at (#73) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#63	#73
SP+SP+	#80	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#87	#124
OffenseOff	#84	#118
DefenseDef	#62	#106
Spec TeamsST	#122	#136
TalentTal	#55	#61
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#65

California Notes(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(11/28) Hired Bama Co-OC JaMarcus Shepard as HC
(11/10) Interim HC Robb Akey fired? That's new
(11/10) OC Ryan Gunderson now interim HC
(10/19) QB Murphy benched vs FCS Laf. Were losing at half
(10/12) HC Bray fired after 0-7 start
(10/7) 2 heart breaking L's, Off is improving, WR Walker great
(8/31) Murphy meh, Run Off awful, Pass Def torched
(7/31) RB Hankerson a great back, have depth
(7/31) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Will DC this year
(7/31) Schedule front loaded but lots of rebuild opps
(7/31) OC Gunderson great QB coach, 1st time OC
(7/31) DL lacks exp, will struggle up front both lines
Oregon State Injury Report

California on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#106
SuccessSuc	#88	#125
ExplosiveExp	#52	#31
PPAPPA	#79	#117
PowerPwr	#61	#49
SP+SP+	#77	#96
Pts POPPO	#125	#117
HavocHav	#102	#115

California Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#124	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#126
Run ExplRExp	#22	#55
PPAExp	#99	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#108
TackleTak	-	#128

California Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#41
PPAExp	#72	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#82	#84
F7 HavocF7	#126	#122
DB HavocDB	#23	#75

Oregon State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	CAL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#118	#62
SuccessSuc	#59	#52
ExplosiveExp	#124	#88
PPAPPA	#87	#48
PowerPwr	#96	#64
SP+SP+	#125	#72
Pts POPPO	#75	#20
HavocHav	#56	#42

Oregon State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#121	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#53
Run ExplRExp	#65	#37
PPAExp	#25	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#71
TackleTak	-	#109

Oregon State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#9
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#92
PPAExp	#125	#52
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#77
F7 HavocF7	#50	#72
DB HavocDB	#84	#12

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Oregon State -3.0 (51.5)
California won at Oregon State this year (34-15)

Previous Matchups
California beat Oregon State last year (34-15)
California beat Oregon State in 2024 (44-7)
Oregon State beat California in 2023 (52-40)

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)	315	491	64%	3446	18	9	7.0
Devin Brown (Tr)	4	7	57%	48	1	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	233	952	13	4.1	33
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)	33	108	2	3.3	12
Brandon High	23	98	1	4.3	22
Anthony League	11	38	1	3.5	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)	107	1022	6	9.6	41
Trond Grizzell	55	788	1	14.3	35
Mason Mini (Tr)	35	387	4	11.1	51
Quaron Adams (Tr)	20	273	1	13.7	39

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cade Uluave	97	12	3	4	4
Luke Ferrelli	91	5	1	1	1
Dru Polidore	62	3	0	0	3
Aidan Keanaaina	56	3	2	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush (Tr)	39	11	5	4	1
Cade Uluave	97	12	3	4	4
Chris Victor (Tr)	24	5	3	4	0
Jayden Wayne (Tr)	26	5	3	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	42	1	0	13
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)	47	1	0	12
Derek Wilkins	12	0	1	8

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	160	276	58%	1802	9	8	6.5
Gabarri Johnson	62	100	62%	501	2	3	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson	247	1088	9	4.4	65
Cornell Hatcher Jr.	52	292	2	5.6	42
Gabarri Johnson	34	119	1	3.5	52
Salahadin Allah	19	71	0	3.7	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	68	823	2	12.1	43
David Wells Jr.	44	466	4	10.6	56
Tastean Reddicks	30	391	0	13.0	37
Bryce Caufield	29	219	1	7.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	78	0	0	2	4
Aiden Sullivan	72	7	1	5	1
Jaheim Patterson	67	1	0	1	4
Dexter Foster	52	3	0	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jojo Johnson	18	7	3	8	0
Jacob Schuster	14	2	2	0	2
Takari Hickle	38	5	2	5	0
Shamar Meikle	28	6	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalil Tucker	25	1	1	5
Sailasa Vadrawale	31	1	1	5
Trey Glasper	23	2	0	5