Miami at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, December 31st 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Ohio State -7.5 (39.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Miami 24 - Ohio State: 14 (CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)

Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ohio State -6.5 (SP+ OSU -9)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 18 - OSU: 24 (42)
OSU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 1116 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Buckeyes (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MIAMI Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Miami vs Notre Dame	+2.5	53.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Miami vs Bethune-Cookman	-54.5	0.0	W 45 - 3	O	N
Sat 9/13	Miami vs South Florida	-17.5	56.5	W 49 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Miami vs Florida	-8.5	51.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Miami at Florida State	-3.5	54.5	W 28 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	Miami vs Louisville	-10.5	49.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/25	Miami vs Stanford	-28.5	45.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Miami at SMU	-8.5	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/8	Miami vs Syracuse	-28.5	47.5	W 38 - 10	O	N
Sat 11/15	Miami vs NC State	-16.5	54.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Miami at Virginia Tech	-18.5	49.0	W 34 - 17	O	N
Sat 11/29	Miami at Pittsburgh	-6.5	49.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Miami at Texas A&M	+3.0	48.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Miami vs Ohio State	+7.5	39.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/8	Miami vs Ole Miss	-3.0	52.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Mon 1/19	Miami vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 21 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ohio State vs Texas	-1.5	46.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio State vs Grambling	-55.5	62.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio State vs Ohio	-28.0	49.0	W 37 - 9	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Ohio State at Washington	-9.5	52.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-23.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Ohio State at Illinois	-15.5	51.5	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-24.5	41.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Ohio State vs Penn State	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Ohio State at Purdue	-29.5	49.5	W 34 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/15	Ohio State vs UCLA	-33.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Ohio State vs Rutgers	-29.0	54.0	W 42 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Ohio State at Michigan	-9.5	43.5	W 27 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/6	Ohio State vs Indiana	-5.5	48.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Wed 12/31	Ohio State vs Miami	-7.5	39.5	L 14 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	30.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	14.8	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)	33.4	48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)	9.3	39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	30.9	26	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4
OSU Defense	16	9.3	7.4	36.3%	2.05	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	34%	19%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	14.8	15	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16
OSU Offense	16	33.4	41.6	51.8%	4.6	0.8	17	347	137	211	5	49%	50%	48%	56%	12%	.43

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7
Ohio State	16	24:27	16.9	42%	70%	3.4	31.6	0.8	1.1	5.1	2.4	2	28.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)
OSU Defense	16	53% (90)	39% (26)	-	-	-	-	.01 (15)	2.9 (48)	67% (33)	13% (16)	0.87 (20)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)
OSU Offense	16	49% (77)	48% (19)	27.3	136.8	5	28 (25)	.31 (8)	3.37 (15)	76% (48)	7% (7)	1.11 (16)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)
OSU Defense	16	46% (35)	34% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.02 (2)	1.5 (28)	32% (74)	30% (66)	.16 (13)	6% (61)	1.7 (6)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)
OSU Offense	16	50% (60)	56% (1)	16.7	23.4	210.6	9	12.6	31 (6)	9 (48)	.58 (1)	1.6 (70)	27% (7)	37% (12)	.55 (6)	5% (42)	2.1 (41)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.83 #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47 #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36 #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55% #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7 #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 25.83 Ohio State: 29.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.7 Ohio State: 30.1

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 29.83 #2
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.53 #10
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -5.04 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 30.1 #2
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #13
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.7 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 24
Miami 18

Projected Total Points: 42

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/31	Ohio State	14	Miami	24	Ohio State -7.5	Miami	39.5	Under
2011	09/17	Miami	24	Ohio State	6
2010	09/11	Ohio State	36	Miami	24
2002	01/03	Miami	24	Ohio State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	2	0	0 Overs
Miami	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Miami Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	CFP Nat'l Title	Miami vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 21 - 27
2025	CFP Semifinal	Miami vs Ole Miss	-3.0	52.5	W 31 - 27
2025	CFP Quarterfinal	Miami vs Ohio State	+7.5	39.5	W 24 - 14
2025	CFP 1st Round	Miami vs Texas A&M	+3.0	48.5	W 10 - 3
2024	Tarts Bowl	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42
2023	Pinstripe Bowl	Miami vs Rutgers	+3.0	41.0	L 24 - 31
2020	It Bowl	Miami vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	58.5	L 34 - 37
2019	Independence Bowl	Miami vs Louisiana Tech	-7.0	49.5	L 0 - 14

Ohio State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	CFP Quarterfinal	Ohio State vs Miami	-7.5	39.5	L 14 - 24
2024	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-8.5	45.5	W 34 - 23
2024	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Texas	-6.5	51.5	W 28 - 14
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Ohio State vs Oregon	-2.5	55.5	W 41 - 21
2024	CFP 1st Round	Ohio State vs Tennessee	-7.5	47.0	W 42 - 17
2023	Cotton Bowl	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14
2022	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Georgia	+5.5	62.0	L 41 - 42
2021	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Utah	-4.5	64.5	W 48 - 45
2020	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Alabama	+9.5	75.0	L 24 - 52
2020	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+7.5	66.5	W 49 - 28
2019	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+3.0	63.5	L 23 - 29

(#6) MIAMI at (#2) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	OSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#6	#2
SP+SP+	#9	#2
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#2
OffenseOff	#7	#2
DefenseDef	#4	#3
Spec TeamsST	#49	#21
TalentTal	#16	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#9	#2

Miami Notes(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report

Ohio State Notes(11/15) WR2 Carnell Tate out for season (calf injury)
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Ohio State Injury Report

Miami on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	OSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#3
SuccessSuc	#1	#7
ExplosiveExp	#22	#15
PPAPPA	#2	#2
PowerPwr	#13	#1
SP+SP+	#22	#1
Pts POPPO	#2	#1
HavocHav	#4	#22

Miami Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#21	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#26
Run ExplRExp	#73	#20
PPAExp	#5	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#97
TackleTak	-	#3

Miami Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#11
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#8
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#28
PPAExp	#6	#2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#44
F7 HavocF7	#3	#16
DB HavocDB	#15	#61

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	MIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#4
SuccessSuc	#3	#26
ExplosiveExp	#17	#130
PPAPPA	#1	#69
PowerPwr	#10	#6
SP+SP+	#13	#7
Pts POPPO	#15	#91
HavocHav	#14	#39

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#24	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#19	#16
Run ExplRExp	#16	#125
PPAExp	#8	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#8	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#7
TackleTak	-	#120

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#70	#113
PPAExp	#1	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#1
F7 HavocF7	#7	#43
DB HavocDB	#42	#34

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in AT&T Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State -7.5 (39.5)
Miami won at Ohio State this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Ohio State last year (24-14)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Beck (Tr)	338	468	72%	3813	30	12	8.1
Emory Williams	13	19	68%	156	0	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.	216	1192	12	5.5	57
CharMar Brown (Tr)	122	460	7	3.8	13
Girard Pringle Jr.	62	375	4	6.0	38
Malachi Toney	23	113	1	4.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Toney	109	1211	10	11.1	61
Keelan Marion (Tr)	57	746	2	13.1	61
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	50	557	7	11.1	47
Elija Lofton	23	218	3	9.5	29

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)	84	3	2	1	6
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)	75	4	4	0	6
Wesley Bissainthe	71	3	1	1	0
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)	68	3	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	63	18	13	6	0
Rueben Bain Jr.	54	16	10	5	1
Keionte Scott (Tr)	64	13	5	8	5
Ahmad Moten	31	9	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)	45	2	1	1	8
OJ Frederique Jr.	19	0	0	0	7
Mohamed Toure (Tr)	84	3	2	1	6

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Sayin	301	391	77%	3610	32	8	9.2
Lincoln Kienholz	11	14	79%	139	1	0	9.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bo Jackson	179	1090	6	6.1	64
CJ Donaldson (Tr)	96	361	10	3.8	27
James Peoples	61	344	3	5.6	49
Isaiah West	59	310	2	5.3	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	87	1243	12	14.3	87
Carnell Tate	51	875	9	17.2	57
Max Klare (Tr)	43	448	2	10.4	39
Brandon Inniss	36	271	3	7.5	29

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sonny Styles	83	7	1	4	3
Arvell Reese	69	10	7	5	2
Caleb Downs	68	5	1	1	1
Caden Curry	66	17	11	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Curry	66	17	11	8	2
Kenyatta Jackson	28	11	7	2	2
Arvell Reese	69	10	7	5	2
Eddrick Houston	21	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	52	1	0	0	6
Sonny Styles	83	7	1	4	3
Jaylen McClain	53	0	0	0	3