Miami at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo (#12)Miami Hurricanes vs Ohio State Buckeyes(#1)Ohio State logo
Wednesday, December 31st 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Ohio State -7.5 (39.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Miami 24 - Ohio State: 14  (CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)

 
Hurricanes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 13 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ohio State -5.5  (SP+ OSU -11)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 19 - OSU: 24 (43)
OSU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 984 miles
Buckeyes (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss+2.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-9.552.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-23.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15.551.5W 34 - 16UY
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-24.541.5W 34 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-29.549.5W 34 - 10UN
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-33.546.5W 48 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-29.054.0W 42 - 9UY
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-9.543.5W 27 - 9UY
Sat 12/6 Ohio State vs Indiana-5.548.5L 10 - 13UN
Wed 12/31 Ohio State vs Miami-7.539.5L 14 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 5, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#30 (.24)47% (18)31.646% (45)3.09 (41)14150% (10)2444.47 (20)#9 (.04)36% (12)13.137% (16)35% (15)2.42 (3)55.90.91.6
OSU#9 (.33)52% (3)33.446% (44)2.97 (64)15259% (1)2484.99 (2)#3 (-.03)34% (5)9.330% (2)37% (28)2.55 (6)37.40.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1431.62647.5%4.470.9213851412444.350%48%46%50%12%.24
OSU Defense149.37.433.6%2.550.9 - - - - - 47%51%30%37%17%-.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1413.11535.8%2.421.6 - - - - - 43%55%37%35%20%.04
OSU Offense1433.441.652.4%4.990.6213991522484.849%50%46%59%11%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1430:4620.646%61%6.855.90.91.66.32.9231.1
Ohio State1431:0621.454%65%3.937.40.60.95.32.4129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1450% (63)46% (45)32.51414.323 (40).07 (86)3.09 (41)86% (2)6% (3)0.75 (134)
OSU Defense1447% (42)30% (2) - - - - -.1 (5)2.37 (7)60% (9)12% (18)0.83 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1443% (8)37% (16) - - - - -.01 (14)2.53 (13)72% (74)13% (8)0.98 (81)
OSU Offense1449% (67)46% (44)31.9151.64.824 (60).07 (88)2.97 (64)72% (69)7% (10)0.77 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1448% (76)50% (10)2128.6243.88.511.628 (61)10 (108).47 (9)1.5 (77)25% (6)32% (52).37 (44)5% (44)2.1 (37)
OSU Defense1451% (99)37% (28) - - - - - - 8 (100).03 (5)1.2 (1)38% (5)23% (4).08 (5)5% (101)1.7 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1455% (128)35% (15) - - - - - - 14 (55).12 (20)1.5 (43)38% (4)28% (51).23 (50)7% (14)1.9 (26)
OSU Offense1450% (65)59% (1)20.826.6247.79.311.932 (22)6 (20).6 (1)1.4 (111)24% (3)40% (5).57 (6)4% (12)1.9 (92)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 27.78  #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.69  #10
Miami's Defense Rating: -9.44  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55%  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8  #8
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #10

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 27.78   Ohio State: 30.425

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.8   Ohio State: 32.4




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 30.425  #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 32.33  #1
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -17.85  #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.4  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #5
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.0  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 13.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 24
Miami 19


Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 25
Miami 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 26
Miami 19

Total Points: 45
Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/31Ohio State14Miami24Ohio State -7.5Miami39.5Under
201109/17Miami24Ohio State6
201009/11Ohio State36Miami24
200201/03Miami24Ohio State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State200 Overs
Miami211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 20 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams2 - 21 - 00 - 01 - 0

Miami Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14
2025CFP 1st Round Miami vs Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3
2024Tarts Bowl Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42
2023Pinstripe Bowl Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31
2020It Bowl Miami vs Oklahoma State+2.558.5L 34 - 37
2019Independence Bowl Miami vs Louisiana Tech-7.049.5L 0 - 14
Ohio State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Ohio State vs Miami-7.539.5L 14 - 24
2024CFP Nat'l Title Ohio State vs Notre Dame-8.545.5W 34 - 23
2024CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Texas-6.551.5W 28 - 14
2024CFP Quarterfinal Ohio State vs Oregon-2.555.5W 41 - 21
2024CFP 1st Round Ohio State vs Tennessee-7.547.0W 42 - 17
2023Cotton Bowl Ohio State vs Missouri-4.051.0L 3 - 14
2022CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Georgia+5.562.0L 41 - 42
2021Rose Bowl Ohio State vs Utah-4.564.5W 48 - 45
2020CFP Nat'l Title Ohio State vs Alabama+9.575.0L 24 - 52
2020CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Clemson+7.566.5W 49 - 28
2019CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Clemson+3.063.5L 23 - 29
  
(#5) MIAMI at (#1) OSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMIOSU
Power RatePwr #5 #1
SP+SP+ #8 #1
Perf GradeGrade #4 #2
OffenseOff #6 #2
DefenseDef #3 #3
Spec TeamsST #89 #22
TalentTal #16 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #2
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
Ohio State Notes
(11/15) WR2 Carnell Tate out for season (calf injury)
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Ohio State Injury Report
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #6 #3
SuccessSuc #18 #5
ExplosiveExp #128 #2
PPAPPA #30 #3
PowerPwr #10 #1
SP+SP+ #18 #1
Pts POPPO #20 #6
HavocHav #9 #53
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #30 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #45 #2
Run ExplRExp #134 #12
PPAExp #86 #5
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #41 #7
Stuff RateStuff #18 #9
TackleTak -  #5
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #21 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #28
Pass ExplPExl #77 #1
PPAExp #9 #5
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #2 #42
F7 HavocF7 #3 #18
DB HavocDB #44 #101
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatOSU OffMIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf #2 #3
SuccessSuc #3 #12
ExplosiveExp #125 #70
PPAPPA #9 #9
PowerPwr #1 #6
SP+SP+ #5 #10
Pts POPPO #2 #3
HavocHav #5 #7
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #25 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #44 #16
Run ExplRExp #132 #81
PPAExp #88 #14
Run BlockR Blk #8 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #13
Stuff RateStuff #89 #27
TackleTak -  #115
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatOSU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #1 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #15
Pass ExplPExl #111 #43
PPAExp #1 #20
Pass Block/RushP Blk #31 #1
F7 HavocF7 #10 #8
DB HavocDB #12 #14
Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 59°
Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State -7.5 (39.5)
Miami won at Ohio State this year (24-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)27737374%317526108.5
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.158857105.456
CharMar Brown (Tr)10037553.813
Girard Pringle Jr.5936346.238
Jordan Lyle3510813.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney89992811.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)44590113.461
C.J. Daniels (Tr)37420711.447
Elija Lofton2220339.229

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)622104
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)574404
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Wesley Bissainthe532010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor5114950
Rueben Bain Jr.4212841
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Ahmad Moten248530
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)392117
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)533115

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin27935678%33233169.3
Lincoln Kienholz111479%139109.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson168103556.264
James Peoples6134435.649
CJ Donaldson (Tr)89330103.727
Isaiah West5931025.338
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith8010861113.687
Carnell Tate48838917.557
Max Klare (Tr)43448210.439
Brandon Inniss3223737.429

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sonny Styles815143
Arvell Reese6210742
Caleb Downs605111
Caden Curry60171162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Curry60171162
Arvell Reese6210742
Kenyatta Jackson2711722
Kayden McDonald578320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun421006
Sonny Styles815143
Jaylen McClain500003