Clemson at North Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Clemson logo   Clemson Tigers at North Carolina Tar Heels  North Carolina logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Clemson -15.5 (47.5) (-650)  Open: -13.5
Clemson 38 - North Carolina: 10  (ACC)

 
Tigers (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dabo Swinney (180 - 46)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (30 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
CLEM coming off BYE
UNC coming off BYE
Our Line: Clemson -13.5  (SP+ CLEM -16)
Projected Score: CLEM: 30 - UNC: 17 (47)
CLEM Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
CLEM Travel: 230 miles
Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 3)
 
Clemson's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Clemson vs LSU-3.557.5L 10 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Clemson vs Troy-31.051.5W 27 - 16UN
Sat 9/13 Clemson at Georgia Tech-2.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 9/20 Clemson vs Syracuse-17.553.5L 21 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Clemson at North Carolina-15.547.5W 38 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 Clemson at Boston College-14.054.5W 41 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 Clemson vs SMU-3.549.5L 24 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Clemson vs Duke-4.555.5L 45 - 46ON
Sat 11/8 Clemson vs Florida State-1.556.5W 24 - 10UY
Fri 11/14 Clemson at Louisville+1.550.5W 20 - 19UY
Sat 11/22 Clemson vs Furman-41.555.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 Clemson at South Carolina+2.545.5W 28 - 14UY
Sat 12/27 Clemson vs Penn State-2.547.5L 10 - 22UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Clemson's Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5W 20 - 15UN
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.537.5L 12 - 28ON
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+6.550.5L 25 - 32ON
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+7.048.5L 19 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CLEM#21 (.27)47% (24)27.250% (12)3.28 (29)17445% (36)2794.33 (29)#52 (.14)40% (48)20.543% (68)38% (36)3.64 (48)47.60.71.9
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)19.347% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)24.544% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CLEM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CLEM Offense1427.229.646.7%4.330.7244521742795.243%56%50%45%13%.27
UNC Defense1324.52640.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CLEM Defense1420.515.440.1%3.641.9 - - - - - 46%53%43%38%19%.14
UNC Offense1319.32142%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Clemson1430:2923.944%59%4.947.60.71.96.12.5230.1
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CLEM Offense1443% (113)50% (12)33.6173.85.223 (52).24 (19)3.28 (29)72% (78)8% (40)0.96 (69)
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CLEM Defense1446% (20)43% (68) - - - - .15 (84)2.93 (54)59% (8)11% (38)1.12 (119)
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CLEM Offense1456% (23)45% (36)23.637.8278.57.411.837 (2)7 (26).33 (38)1.5 (79)30% (39)38% (6).58 (4)5% (21)2.1 (39)
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CLEM Defense1453% (114)38% (36) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (28)1.6 (60)35% (26)32% (90).3 (66)8% (20)2 (64)
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)

Clemson's Power Ratings
Clemson's Power Rating: 14.58  #24
Clemson's Offense Rating: 17.99  #38
Clemson's Defense Rating: 3.41  #16
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Clemson's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
Clemson's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #34
Clemson's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #65
Clemson's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9  #24

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Clemson: 14.58   North Carolina: -1.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Clemson: 9.5   North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.6  #72
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.32  #78
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.92  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Clemson Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.4

Clemson's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Clemson 30
North Carolina 17

Projected Total Points: 47
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04North Carolina10Clemson38Clemson -15.5Clemson47.5Over
202311/18Clemson31North Carolina20Clemson -7.5Clemson58.0Under
202212/03North Carolina10Clemson39Clemson -7.5Clemson64.0Under
201909/28North Carolina20Clemson21Clemson -27.5North Carolina61.0Under
201512/05Clemson45North Carolina37Clemson -6.5Clemson67.5Over
201409/27Clemson50North Carolina35Clemson -10Clemson0
201110/22Clemson59North Carolina38
201010/09North Carolina21Clemson16
200609/23Clemson52North Carolina7
200310/25Clemson36North Carolina28
200211/09North Carolina12Clemson42
200110/20Clemson3North Carolina38
200010/20North Carolina24Clemson38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina212 Overs
Clemson1153 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 64 - 23 - 01 - 2
Road Teams6 - 72 - 42 - 10 - 3

(#24) CLEM at (#72) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCLEMUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #24 #72
SP+SP+ #34 #91
Perf GradeGrade #50 #83
OffenseOff #65 #99
DefenseDef #33 #52
Spec TeamsST #30 #70
TalentTal #12 #17
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #29
Clemson Notes
(11/2) Things are getting toxic with HC Swinney
(11/2) 1-4 at home going into FSU game. Beat Troy
(11/2) Off great, Def torched, ST's cost bad in Duke L
(10/21) Top WR Bryant Wesco out for season (back inj)
(10/19) 5 straight losses at home vs FBS after SMU loss
(10/19) QB Vizzina was good, but Run Off putrid in SMU L
(10/16) QB Klubnik apparently injured, may miss SMU
(9/20) Def torched by Cuse. Klubnik can't carry this Off
(9/18) Get LT Leigh, WR Williams, S Barnes back (Cuse)
(9/15) Off just bad, Klubnick asked to carry too much
(8/30) Run game awful, OL awful. Not an elite team
(6/6) OL returns 5/5, a top 10 unit in all CFB
Clemson Injury Report
North Carolina Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report
Clemson on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
CLEM OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #65 #52
SuccessSuc #24 #53
ExplosiveExp #70 #66
PPAPPA #21 #70
PowerPwr #38 #62
SP+SP+ #65 #58
Pts POPPO #29 #90
HavocHav #25 #90
Clemson Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
CLEM OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #105 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #12 #82
Run ExplRExp #69 #29
PPAExp #19 #88
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #29 #121
Stuff RateStuff #53 #126
TackleTak -  #71
Clemson Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
CLEM OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #29 #75
Pass SuccessPSuc #36 #26
Pass ExplPExl #79 #125
PPAExp #38 #64
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #73 #39
F7 HavocF7 #40 #83
DB HavocDB #21 #103
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffCLEM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #99 #33
SuccessSuc #80 #48
ExplosiveExp #39 #106
PPAPPA #65 #52
PowerPwr #78 #16
SP+SP+ #123 #24
Pts POPPO #52 #48
HavocHav #49 #20
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCLEM Def
Run GameRun #108 #35
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #68
Run ExplRExp #36 #119
PPAExp #14 #84
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #54
Stuff RateStuff #19 #44
TackleTak -  #11
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffCLEM Def
Pass GamePass #91 #62
Pass SuccessPSuc #114 #36
Pass ExplPExl #29 #60
PPAExp #101 #28
Pass Block/RushP Blk #49 #39
F7 HavocF7 #54 #38
DB HavocDB #60 #20
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

CLEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Clemson 15.5 (47.5)
Clemson won at North Carolina this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
Clemson beat North Carolina last year (38-10)
Clemson beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-20)

  
CLEM's OC Garrett Riley (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cade Klubnik25739266%29431667.5
Christopher Vizzina457163%406415.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Adam Randall168814104.846
Gideon Davidson6026004.328
Chris Denson7108115.450
Cade Klubnik839441.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
T.J. Moore52837416.175
Antonio Williams55604411.064
Bryant Wesco Jr.31537617.373
Adam Randall3625437.135

View Clemson's Full Roster

CLEM's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sammy Brown10714665
Wade Woodaz707123
Ronan Hanafin642004
Avieon Terrell485308
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Heldt (Tr)46156102
Sammy Brown10714665
T.J. Parker379571
Jaheim Lawson197443
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avieon Terrell485308
Ashton Hampton453108
Sammy Brown10714665

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez17026165%17471056.7
Max Johnson548762%437205.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)7127423.918
Davion Gause6125834.225
Giovanni Lopez8613331.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Kobe Paysour35438112.544
Demon June1715919.472
Javarius Green13150011.539

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)733161
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
Will Hardy512000
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
Tyler Thompson268711
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
C.J. Mims (Tr)413200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen352108
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)202006
Jaiden Patterson332005