Ole Miss at Georgia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo (#6)Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs(#3)Georgia logo
Thursday, January 1st 2026 (8:00 PM EST)
Georgia -6 (53.5) (-218)  Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 39 - Georgia: 34  (CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl)

 
Rebels (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Golding (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 20 (34 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Georgia -1  (SP+ UGA -1)

Projected Score: MISS: 26 - UGA: 27 (52)
UGA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MISS Travel: 353 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (12 - 2) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (105 - 18)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (35 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami-2.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 4, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Georgia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia vs Marshall-39.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Georgia vs Austin Peay-47.055.5W 28 - 6UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia at Tennessee-3.550.5W 44 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Georgia vs Alabama-2.553.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/4 Georgia vs Kentucky-19.548.5W 35 - 14OY
Sat 10/11 Georgia at Auburn-4.545.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 Georgia vs Ole Miss-7.556.5W 43 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Georgia vs Florida-7.050.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Georgia at Mississippi State-9.556.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 11/15 Georgia vs Texas-3.550.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Georgia vs Charlotte-42.553.5W 35 - 3UN
Fri 11/28 Georgia vs Georgia Tech-15.559.5W 16 - 9UN
Sat 12/6 Georgia vs Alabama-2.547.5W 28 - 7UY
Thu 1/1 Georgia vs Ole Miss-6.053.5L 34 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#12 (.32)48% (17)37.645% (58)2.77 (104)17251% (5)2904.71 (9)#51 (.12)40% (49)20.444% (82)37% (24)2.94 (16)50.30.90.9
UGA#24 (.27)49% (13)32.148% (21)3.11 (38)17449% (15)2054.81 (6)#28 (.08)37% (22)17.635% (9)40% (52)3.66 (68)40.80.90.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
UGA#37 (.24)47% (25)46% (46)2.91 (91)12147% (16)2644.68 (12)#49 (.14)39% (32)39% (34)38% (37)3.22 (19)51.11.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1437.634.347.9%4.710.9244621722904.652%47%45%51%13%.32
UGA Defense1417.614.137.4%3.660.9 - - - - - 45%54%35%40%15%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1420.427.839.8%2.940.9 - - - - - 50%49%44%37%17%.12
UGA Offense1432.134.648.6%4.810.9233781742054.556%43%48%49%13%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1427:2123.945%69%5.450.30.90.94.91.9028.5
Georgia1431:2122.645%76%4.340.80.90.93.91.4029.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1452% (46)45% (58)37.2171.84.636 (11).15 (48)2.77 (104)80% (21)8% (29)0.98 (61)
UGA Defense1445% (14)35% (9) - - - - -.02 (10)2.47 (10)71% (66)8% (108)0.77 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1450% (67)44% (82) - - - - .2 (120)3.12 (105)67% (42)10% (61)1.1 (125)
UGA Offense1456% (27)48% (21)38.5173.54.529 (16).18 (40)3.11 (38)74% (56)8% (34)0.93 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1447% (84)51% (5)20.531.3290.19.314.223 (50)8 (60).49 (6)1.6 (50)28% (22)39% (6).6 (4)6% (50)2.2 (14)
UGA Defense1454% (123)40% (52) - - - - - - 9 (75).21 (55)1.4 (10)31% (78)24% (11).18 (27)7% (34)2 (65)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1449% (76)37% (24) - - - - - - 8 (100).1 (14)1.5 (49)33% (47)28% (56).23 (46)7% (41)2.1 (90)
UGA Offense1443% (108)49% (15)19.127.4204.67.510.724 (61)7 (20).36 (35)1.3 (132)28% (20)32% (45).34 (56)5% (22)1.8 (122)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 26.52  #8
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 21.98  #16
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -5.48  #12
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.8  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #8
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 26.52   Georgia: 25.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 22.8   Georgia: 23.4




Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 25.575  #6
Georgia's Offense Rating: 28.47  #4
Georgia's Defense Rating: -5.30  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1140.00  #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 74  #1
Georgia's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Georgia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.4  #6
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2  #15
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6  #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia 27
Ole Miss 26


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia 24
Ole Miss 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Georgia 29
Ole Miss 26

Total Points: 55
Georgia Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.6
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.1

Georgia's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202501/01Georgia34Ole Miss39Georgia -6Ole Miss53.5Over
202510/18Georgia43Ole Miss35Georgia -7.5Georgia56.5Over
202411/09Ole Miss28Georgia10Georgia -1.5Ole Miss54.5Under
202311/11Georgia52Ole Miss17Georgia -11.0Georgia59.0Over
201609/24Ole Miss45Georgia14Ole Miss -6Ole Miss61.0Under
201211/03Georgia37Ole Miss10
201109/24Ole Miss13Georgia27
200709/29Georgia45Ole Miss17
200609/30Ole Miss9Georgia14
200211/09Georgia31Ole Miss17
200111/17Ole Miss15Georgia35
200011/17Georgia32Ole Miss14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia923 Overs
Ole Miss332 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 44 - 13 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 81 - 40 - 11 - 3

Ole Miss Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34
2025CFP 1st Round Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10
2024Gator Bowl Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20
2023Peach Bowl Ole Miss vs Penn State+5.553.0W 38 - 25
2022Texas Bowl Ole Miss vs Texas Tech-4.573.0L 25 - 42
2021Sugar Bowl Ole Miss vs Baylor-1.060.5L 7 - 21
2020Outback Bowl Ole Miss vs Indiana+6.566.5W 26 - 20
Georgia Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Georgia vs Ole Miss-6.053.5L 34 - 39
2024CFP Quarterfinal Georgia vs Notre Dame+1.546.5L 10 - 23
2023Orange Bowl Georgia vs Florida State-23.547.0W 63 - 3
2022CFP Nat'l Title Georgia vs TCU-13.562.0W 65 - 7
2022CFP Semifinal Georgia vs Ohio State-5.562.0W 42 - 41
2021CFP Nat'l Title Georgia vs Alabama-3.053.5W 33 - 18
2021CFP Semifinal Georgia vs Michigan-7.547.0W 34 - 11
2020Peach Bowl Georgia vs Cincinnati-7.050.0W 24 - 21
2019Sugar Bowl Georgia vs Baylor-4.044.0W 26 - 14
  
(#8) MISS at (#6) UGA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMISSUGA
Power RatePwr #8 #6
SP+SP+ #7 #6
Perf GradeGrade #17 #12
OffenseOff #22 #21
DefenseDef #37 #30
Spec TeamsST #24 #38
TalentTal #33 #2
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #1
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Georgia Notes
(11/16) Killed Texas, Dawgs peaking. Def inj a concern
(10/20) Top WR Colbie Young out for season (fractured leg)
(10/19) Off torched Ole Miss, 500 yds, Rush Off improved
(10/18) At times playing 2 true Fr at OG vs Ole Miss
(9/30) DL cannot get pressure w/o LBs, have zero sacks
(9/15) Stockton, Off took huge leap in Tenn W.
(9/13) Pass Def torched by Tennessee, DB's beat 1-1
(9/8) Young talent on Def loaded w/ future NFL'ers
(8/16) CAMP: Skill players are massive upgrade TY
(8/13) 7 home games, only 3 on road (2 neutral)
(8/12) WR - upgrade w/ Branch/Thomas, top 10 PFF
(7/19) QB Stockton CFP starter, but watch So. Puglisi
Georgia Injury Report
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUGA Def
Perf GradePerf #22 #30
SuccessSuc #17 #22
ExplosiveExp #38 #10
PPAPPA #12 #28
PowerPwr #16 #13
SP+SP+ #8 #8
Pts POPPO #9 #68
HavocHav #36 #77
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUGA Def
Run GameRun #15 #6
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #9
Run ExplRExp #61 #4
PPAExp #48 #10
Run BlockR Blk #101 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #10
Stuff RateStuff #109 #45
TackleTak -  #1
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffUGA Def
Pass GamePass #32 #53
Pass SuccessPSuc #5 #52
Pass ExplPExl #50 #10
PPAExp #6 #55
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #26 #123
F7 HavocF7 #29 #108
DB HavocDB #50 #34
Georgia on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatUGA OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #21 #37
SuccessSuc #13 #49
ExplosiveExp #131 #85
PPAPPA #24 #51
PowerPwr #4 #12
SP+SP+ #15 #17
Pts POPPO #6 #16
HavocHav #23 #53
Georgia Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
UGA OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #26 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #21 #82
Run ExplRExp #81 #125
PPAExp #40 #120
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #38 #105
Stuff RateStuff #86 #86
TackleTak -  #31
Georgia Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatUGA OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #22 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #24
Pass ExplPExl #132 #49
PPAExp #35 #14
Pass Block/RushP Blk #8 #89
F7 HavocF7 #34 #61
DB HavocDB #22 #41
Program Comparison
UGA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Caesers Superdome
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 60° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Georgia -7.5 (56.5)
Georgia won vs Ole Miss this year (43-35)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Georgia last year (28-10)
Georgia beat Ole Miss in 2023 (52-17)

  
MISS's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)24136267%32981939.1
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)2731366215.059
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)12450684.141
Logan Diggs2917946.251
Deuce Alexander (Tr)1812306.831
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)48738315.455
Deuce Alexander (Tr)41664216.288
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)43612614.275
Dae'Quan Wright34553416.364

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery835112
Suntarine Perkins6892114
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kamarion Franklin5774142
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)34128131
William Echoles579563
Kamarion Franklin5774142
Zxavian Harris468362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)501015
Suntarine Perkins6892114

UGA's OC Mike Bobo (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunner Stockton25135571%26912357.6
Ryan Puglisi162759%161126.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Frazier15886165.459
Chauncey Bowens9851665.343
Gunner Stockton11644283.822
Dwight Phillips Jr.3521016.023
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachariah Branch (Tr)73744510.247
Colbie Young23336114.645
Dillon Bell27279210.336
London Humphreys18276315.336

View Georgia's Full Roster

UGA's DC Glenn Schumann (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Allen858424
Raylen Wilson706231
KJ Bolden673004
Chris Cole547502
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Cole547502
C.J. Allen858424
Quintavius Johnson336233
Zayden Walker62200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ellis Robinson IV171007
Daylen Everette390016
Demello Jones231005