Troy at James Madison - 2025 Matchup Preview
Troy logo   Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes  James Madison logo
Friday, December 5th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
James Madison -24.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
James Madison 31 - Troy: 14  (Sun Belt Championship)

 
Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
TROY 2nd straight Road Game
JMU is playing their 6th straight game
TROY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: James Madison -15  (SP+ JMU -17)

Projected Score: TROY: 17 - JMU: 32 (50)
JMU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
TROY Travel: 608 miles, 1 hrs behind
Dukes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (40 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.1 - 1.9 (#2)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-16.546.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+31.051.5L 16 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4.551.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo+5.543.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama+2.546.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+7.553.5W 48 - 41OY
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-4.545.5W 37 - 14OY
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-7.047.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-7.552.5L 10 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion+9.553.5L 0 - 33UN
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-9.551.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss+6.550.5W 28 - 18UY
Fri 12/5 Troy at James Madison+24.547.5L 14 - 31UY
Tue 12/16 Troy vs Jacksonville State+3.047.5L 13 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 James Madison vs Weber State-26.554.5W 45 - 10OY
Fri 9/5 James Madison at Louisville+15.057.0L 14 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 James Madison at Liberty-7.546.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.554.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 10/4 James Madison at Georgia State-19.552.5W 14 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 James Madison vs Louisiana-18.544.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/18 James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.047.5W 63 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 James Madison at Texas State-7.555.5W 52 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 James Madison at Marshall-13.553.5W 35 - 23ON
Sat 11/15 James Madison vs App State-21.053.5W 58 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 James Madison vs Washington State-15.044.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/29 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.054.5W 59 - 10OY
Fri 12/5 James Madison vs Troy-24.547.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 12/20 James Madison at Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 7
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)23.542% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)23.945% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)37.147% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)18.434% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
JMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1223.523.444.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22
JMU Defense1318.41533.9%3.642.5 - - - - - 46%54%34%34%20%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1223.925.943.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
JMU Offense1337.14043.6%3.930.7214101942164.952%48%47%40%14%.16

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
James Madison1331:4520.841%40%754.80.72.57.13.2632.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)
JMU Defense1346% (19)34% (5) - - - - (14)2.46 (5)65% (26)13% (15)1.07 (106)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
JMU Offense1352% (54)47% (29)39.8193.74.920 (67).17 (45)3.28 (30)72% (82)10% (61)0.98 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)
JMU Defense1354% (116)34% (3) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (10)1.8 (118)40% (1)26% (18).16 (11)7% (24)2.3 (125)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
JMU Offense1348% (79)40% (87)17.829.3215.97.412.228 (15)4 (1).18 (99)1.5 (103)31% (61)29% (95).26 (95)4% (18)2.1 (38)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.41  #85
Troy's Offense Rating: 7.69  #103
Troy's Defense Rating: 14.10  #72
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8  #87
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6  #95
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.41   James Madison: 9.515

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -4.8   James Madison: 12.3




James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 9.515  #59
James Madison's Offense Rating: 13.81  #63
James Madison's Defense Rating: 12.08  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 482.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
James Madison's 2025 Expected Record: 12.1 - 1.9
James Madison's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.3  #27
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #18
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
James Madison 32
Troy 17


Projected Total Points: 50
James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 40
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

James Madison's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/05James Madison31Troy14James Madison -24.5Troy47.5Under
202309/16Troy14James Madison16Troy -2.5James Madison46.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
James Madison210 Overs
Troy012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 12 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#85) TROY at (#59) JMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYJMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #85 #59
SP+SP+ #87 #27
Perf GradeGrade #107 #10
OffenseOff #105 #32
DefenseDef #96 #9
Spec TeamsST #63 #50
TalentTal #100 #120
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #79
Troy Notes
(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report
James Madison Notes
(12/6) Sun Belt champs, beat Troy. Could be CFP bound?
(12/5) Hiring Billy Napier (UF) after Chesney took UCLA job
(12/4) Only its 4th FBS season & could make CFP. Incredible
(12/3) HC Bob Chesney has taken UCLA job, will coach '25
(10/29) Just murdering SBC, very much a G5 CFP threat
(10/22) Leads CFB in Defensive Success Rate, Off Good
(10/21) Off shredded ODU for 624, 311 rushing, 12-16 on 3rd
(9/20) Good W @ Liberty, Def incredible. Run Off good
(9/5) QB Barnett holds too long, not pocket aware
(9/5) Def front 7 dominant. Shut down Louisville
(9/2) QB Barnett started opener, Run Off mauled FCS
(8/25) QB Barnett cleared to play, is a top SBC QB
James Madison Injury Report
Troy on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffJMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #105 #9
SuccessSuc #49 #1
ExplosiveExp #87 #125
PPAPPA #50 #4
PowerPwr #103 #56
SP+SP+ #95 #39
Pts POPPO #22 #53
HavocHav #75 #8
Troy Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffJMU Def
Run GameRun #131 #9
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #5
Run ExplRExp #77 #106
PPAExp #82 #14
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #95 #5
Stuff RateStuff #93 #9
TackleTak -  #20
Troy Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffJMU Def
Pass GamePass #88 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #3
Pass ExplPExl #81 #118
PPAExp #25 #10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #122 #19
F7 HavocF7 #89 #15
DB HavocDB #50 #24
James Madison on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatJMU OffTROY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #32 #96
SuccessSuc #61 #87
ExplosiveExp #104 #50
PPAPPA #88 #77
PowerPwr #63 #72
SP+SP+ #18 #84
Pts POPPO #66 #65
HavocHav #35 #60
James Madison Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffTROY Def
Run GameRun #8 #83
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #87
Run ExplRExp #58 #36
PPAExp #45 #68
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #30 #64
Stuff RateStuff #33 #80
TackleTak -  #101
James Madison Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatJMU OffTROY Def
Pass GamePass #96 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #87 #76
Pass ExplPExl #103 #76
PPAExp #99 #79
Pass Block/RushP Blk #43 #90
F7 HavocF7 #61 #40
DB HavocDB #18 #91
Program Comparison
JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bridgeforth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 15
James Madison -24.5 (47.5)
James Madison won vs Troy this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
James Madison beat Troy last year (31-14)
James Madison beat Troy in 2023 (16-14)

  
TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Kilcrease13022259%1537966.9
Will Crowder11519659%13271156.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows15969564.447
Jordan Lovett8933923.822
Tucker Kilcrease11612651.134
Jarris Williams195713.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)39629516.175
Tray Taylor (Tr)31513316.560
DJ Epps46498510.848
Ethan Conner31397312.839

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer12312314
Devin Lafayette1133105
Justin Powe751001
Jaquez White6741111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith44141172
Jah-Mal Williams466543
Jamel Fils-Aime244310
Elijah Davis (Tr)446320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaquez White6741111
Kaleno Levine (Tr)454005
Devin Lafayette1133105

JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Matthew Sluka (Tr)81173%100329.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight207137396.673
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Jordan Fuller (Tr)8241555.126
Jobi Malary4334948.173
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Nick DeGennaro (Tr)28500517.976
Wayne Knight4039719.957
Jaylan Sanchez (Tr)30396113.280

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Lyle Hemphill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trent Hendrick967323
Tyler Brown715105
Jacob Thomas653237
Drew Spinogatti517163
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West4614774
Xavier Holmes (Tr)317664
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Trent Hendrick967323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale3630112
Justin Eaglin350008
Elijah Culp (Tr)444017