TCU at Kansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
TCU -3 (54.5) (-148)  Open: -2.5
Kansas State 41 - TCU: 28  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 25 (33 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
TCU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: TCU -6.5  (SP+ TCU -4.5)

Projected Score: TCU: 31 - KSU: 25 (56)
TCU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TCU Travel: 451 miles
Wildcats (3 - 4) (3 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#97)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.066.5
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-15
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-6
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+4
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-7.5
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-2.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-5.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+4.559.5L 34 - 35OY
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+3.054.5W 41 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+7.5
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+19.5
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-4

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#28 (.3)46% (47)35.344% (67)2.53 (122)11847% (38)3224.51 (35)#93 (.2)40% (51)24.735% (18)45% (102)3.61 (58)64.21.51.7
KSU#79 (.17)41% (97)29.439% (109)2.75 (93)14542% (70)2224 (69)#62 (.15)39% (39)2740% (48)38% (42)3.48 (48)33.411.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)46% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)34% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense635.333.345.5%4.511.5224401183223.941%59%44%47%17%.3
KSU Defense72726.839%3.481.9 - - - - - 52%48%40%38%17%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense624.727.339.9%3.611.7 - - - - - 52%48%35%45%18%.2
KSU Offense729.433.540.9%41183671452224.749%51%39%42%17%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU627:0922.354%62%6.864.21.51.76.32.7129.7
Kansas State729:0618.138%50%3.333.411.95.62230.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense641% (122)44% (67)29.8117.53.99 (77).08 (91)2.53 (122)75% (53)10% (84)0.84 (113)
KSU Defense752% (90)40% (48) - - - - .09 (65)2.49 (23)68% (49)10% (69)1.06 (102)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense652% (86)35% (18) - - - - .1 (71)3.05 (100)79% (107)12% (32)0.92 (56)
KSU Offense749% (81)39% (109)31145.14.79 (77).08 (93)2.75 (93)67% (97)10% (87)1.04 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense659% (15)47% (38)2437322.38.713.418 (4)7 (119).45 (27)1.8 (11)35% (124)33% (47).53 (24)7% (97)2.5 (5)
KSU Defense748% (49)38% (42) - - - - - - 6 (29).21 (60)1.7 (114)34% (30)28% (63).28 (68)7% (45)2.2 (122)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense648% (53)45% (102) - - - - - - 6 (29).31 (95)1.7 (118)34% (45)35% (120).54 (132)6% (69)2.2 (105)
KSU Offense751% (54)42% (70)2032222.3711.113 (27)3 (26).26 (74)1.6 (43)34% (117)31% (73).23 (98)7% (97)1.8 (118)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 19.19  #30
TCU's Offense Rating: 22.64  #25
TCU's Defense Rating: 3.45  #40
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3  #33
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #25
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #52

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 19.19   Kansas State: 8.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 11.3   Kansas State: 6.6




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 8.965  #57
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 10.68  #72
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.35  #46
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6  #47
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5  #51
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


TCU Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.3
Defense: 24.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.3

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 31
Kansas State 25


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 26
Kansas State 26

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
TCU 31
Kansas State 29

Total Points: 60
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Kansas State41TCU28TCU -3Kansas State54.5Over
202310/21Kansas State41TCU3Kansas State -5.5Kansas State60.0Under
202212/03TCU28Kansas State31TCU -1Kansas State60.5Under
202210/22TCU38Kansas State28TCU -3.5TCU54.5Over
202110/30Kansas State31TCU12Kansas State -3.5Kansas State58.5Under
202010/10TCU14Kansas State21TCU -10.5Kansas State49.5Under
201910/19Kansas State24TCU17TCU -4.5Kansas State43.5Under
201811/03TCU14Kansas State13TCU -10Kansas State44.5Under
201710/14Kansas State6TCU26TCU -7.5TCU49.5Under
201612/03TCU6Kansas State30TCU -4.5Kansas State50.0Under
201510/10Kansas State45TCU52TCU -7NA61.5Over
201411/08TCU41Kansas State20TCU -6TCU0
201311/16Kansas State33TCU31Kansas State -10.5TCU0
201211/10TCU10Kansas State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State983 Overs
TCU548 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 66 - 64 - 52 - 1
Road Teams6 - 86 - 61 - 25 - 4

(#30) TCU at (#57) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUKSU
Power RatePwr #30 #57
SP+SP+ #33 #47
Perf GradeGrade #45 #68
OffenseOff #46 #83
DefenseDef #35 #54
Spec TeamsST #51 #12
TalentTal #29 #46
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #56

TCU Notes
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
(5/19) LB core could be best in B12 led by Obiazor
(5/19) OC Briles has QB Hoover for a 3rd year

Kansas State Notes
(10/12) Off mat W over TCU, forced 3 TOs. Still not good
(10/10) RB D Edwards out again vs TCU (3rd missed game)
(10/5) Blew 14 pt 4Q lead @ Baylor. Season turner/ender?
(10/4) QB2 Blake Barnett is clearly not ready
(9/13) Broken team, QB Johnson unplayable, Off awful
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
(5/9) RB Martin Jr 230/1,228/11 TD, 5.3 ypc SE La LY
(4/7) QB Johnson exciting, but Opps don't respect arm
TCU on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Perf GradePerf #46 #54
SuccessSuc #47 #39
ExplosiveExp #9 #117
PPAPPA #28 #62
PowerPwr #25 #46
SP+SP+ #25 #54
Pts POPPO #35 #48
HavocHav #92 #56
TCU Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #66 #69
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #48
Run ExplRExp #113 #102
PPAExp #91 #65
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #122 #23
Stuff RateStuff #132 #31
TackleTak -  #56
TCU Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #51 #49
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #42
Pass ExplPExl #11 #114
PPAExp #27 #60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #64 #112
F7 HavocF7 #84 #69
DB HavocDB #97 #45
Kansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatKSU OffTCU Def
Perf GradePerf #83 #35
SuccessSuc #97 #51
ExplosiveExp #28 #115
PPAPPA #79 #93
PowerPwr #72 #40
SP+SP+ #51 #52
Pts POPPO #69 #58
HavocHav #94 #47
Kansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
KSU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #131 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #18
Run ExplRExp #45 #56
PPAExp #93 #71
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #100
Stuff RateStuff #121 #120
TackleTak -  #13
Kansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatKSU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #47 #54
Pass SuccessPSuc #70 #102
Pass ExplPExl #43 #118
PPAExp #74 #95
Pass Block/RushP Blk #33 #129
F7 HavocF7 #87 #32
DB HavocDB #97 #69
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 77° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 7
TCU 3.0 (54.5)
Kansas State won vs TCU this year (41-28)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat TCU in 2023 (41-3)
TCU beat Kansas State in 2022 (38-28)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover13921565%18931868.8
Ken Seals4667%24014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)4928515.875
Trent Battle2915935.528
Jeremy Payne3113224.329
Nate Palmer189305.226
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister21541725.885
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)25357214.333
Joseph Manjack21309214.751
D'Andre Rogers19196110.339

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson482001
Kaleb Elarms-Orr485331
Namdi Obiazor452211
Bud Clark290015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr485331
Namdi Obiazor452211
Devean Deal233221
Kylin Jackson (Tr)154210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark290015
Vernon Glover131002
Jevon McIver Jr.121002

KSU's OC Matt Wells (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson14022363%15561327.0
Linkon Cure010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson7531314.221
Avery Johnson6023834.031
Dylan Edwards3420526.075
Jayce Brown3104134.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown32417313.048
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)30360212.032
Garrett Oakley25271410.835
Jerand Bradley (Tr)12178214.865

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Austin Romaine495042
Desmond Purnell374133
VJ Payne373001
Zashon Rich293107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tobi Osunsanmi206420
Cody Stufflebean143340
Travis Bates92251
Jordan Allen51101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich293107
Donovan McIntosh220003
Desmond Purnell374133