TCU at Kansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State WildcatsKansas State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
TCU -3 (54.5) (-148)  Open: -2.5
Kansas State 41 - TCU: 28  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
TCU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: TCU -1.5  (SP+ TCU -1.5)

Projected Score: TCU: 28 - KSU: 27 (55)
TCU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TCU Travel: 451 miles
Wildcats (6 - 6) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (30 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#82)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-5.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+4.559.5L 34 - 35OY
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+3.054.5W 41 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+3.555.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.551.5L 20 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.550.5W 14 - 6UN
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+18.552.5L 47 - 51OY
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-16.550.5W 24 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)30.745% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)25.346% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)29.446% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)26.734% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1330.725.547.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3
KSU Defense1326.727.335.9%3.541.1 - - - - - 47%53%34%38%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1325.326.241.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
KSU Offense1329.429.744%4.081.2183871901966.152%48%46%42%12%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Kansas State1326:4518.540%56%541.31.21.15.92.4327.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)
KSU Defense1347% (31)34% (4) - - - - -.01 (10)2.6 (15)77% (97)11% (39)1.01 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
KSU Offense1352% (57)46% (42)31.5190.36.118 (78).27 (11)3.37 (14)68% (102)8% (29)1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)
KSU Defense1353% (104)38% (32) - - - - - - 9 (76).24 (72)1.8 (130)39% (2)30% (52).35 (88)6% (68)2.2 (119)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
KSU Offense1348% (76)42% (68)15.927196.47.312.322 (46)9 (48).33 (36)1.7 (31)31% (56)31% (76).36 (57)5% (27)2 (79)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.15  #25
TCU's Offense Rating: 21.60  #22
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.45  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 14.15   Kansas State: 9.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.3   Kansas State: 7.0




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 9.89  #47
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 16.92  #47
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 9.14  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.0  #42
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3  #46
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 28
Kansas State 27


Projected Total Points: 55
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Kansas State41TCU28TCU -3Kansas State54.5Over
202310/21Kansas State41TCU3Kansas State -5.5Kansas State60.0Under
202212/03TCU28Kansas State31TCU -1Kansas State60.5Under
202210/22TCU38Kansas State28TCU -3.5TCU54.5Over
202110/30Kansas State31TCU12Kansas State -3.5Kansas State58.5Under
202010/10TCU14Kansas State21TCU -10.5Kansas State49.5Under
201910/19Kansas State24TCU17TCU -4.5Kansas State43.5Under
201811/03TCU14Kansas State13TCU -10Kansas State44.5Under
201710/14Kansas State6TCU26TCU -7.5TCU49.5Under
201612/03TCU6Kansas State30TCU -4.5Kansas State50.0Under
201510/10Kansas State45TCU52TCU -7NA61.5Over
201411/08TCU41Kansas State20TCU -6TCU0
201311/16Kansas State33TCU31Kansas State -10.5TCU0
201211/10TCU10Kansas State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State983 Overs
TCU548 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 66 - 64 - 52 - 1
Road Teams6 - 86 - 61 - 25 - 4

(#25) TCU at (#47) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUKSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #25 #47
SP+SP+ #37 #42
Perf GradeGrade #26 #65
OffenseOff #34 #57
DefenseDef #27 #87
Spec TeamsST #73 #12
TalentTal #29 #46
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #56
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
Kansas State Notes
(12/11) OC Matt Wells was a disaster hire for K St
(12/3) HC Klieman retiring. A&M OC Colin Klen new HC
(11/24) RB Joe Jackson torched Utah for 293 yds, still lost
(10/22) RB Dylan Edwards out again vs Kansas, shocker...
(10/12) Off mat W over TCU, forced 3 TOs. Still not good
(10/5) Blew 14 pt 4Q lead @ Baylor. Season turner/ender?
(10/4) QB2 Blake Barnett is clearly not ready
(9/13) Broken team, QB Johnson unplayable, Off awful
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
Kansas State Injury Report
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #87
SuccessSuc #20 #6
ExplosiveExp #45 #129
PPAPPA #18 #29
PowerPwr #22 #39
SP+SP+ #30 #58
Pts POPPO #20 #43
HavocHav #28 #50
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #60 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #4
Run ExplRExp #85 #83
PPAExp #95 #10
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #15
Stuff RateStuff #82 #12
TackleTak -  #102
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #76
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #32
Pass ExplPExl #75 #130
PPAExp #5 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #93
F7 HavocF7 #36 #39
DB HavocDB #38 #68
Kansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKSU OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #57 #27
SuccessSuc #55 #67
ExplosiveExp #9 #52
PPAPPA #17 #82
PowerPwr #47 #33
SP+SP+ #46 #50
Pts POPPO #53 #72
HavocHav #21 #102
Kansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #103 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #102
Run ExplRExp #10 #87
PPAExp #11 #118
Run BlockR Blk #25 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #104
Stuff RateStuff #79 #87
TackleTak -  #8
Kansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKSU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #68 #18
Pass ExplPExl #31 #57
PPAExp #36 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #61 #103
F7 HavocF7 #29 #105
DB HavocDB #27 #81
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 7
TCU 3.0 (54.5)
Kansas State won vs TCU this year (41-28)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat TCU last year (41-28)
Kansas State beat TCU in 2023 (41-3)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals334672%282126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6434965.565
Jon Denman5017833.616
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister7211901016.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack44579313.251
D'Andre Rogers3431929.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Jamel Johnson963003
Namdi Obiazor884211
Bud Clark562117
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Devean Deal539494
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale318220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark562117
Vernon Glover411006
Devean Deal539494

KSU's OC Matt Wells (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson20434160%23801867.0
Linkon Cure010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson16991185.480
Avery Johnson10947784.458
Dylan Edwards3420526.075
Antonio Martin1912916.837
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown41712517.478
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)47595312.738
Garrett Oakley38389610.235
Jerand Bradley (Tr)13184214.265

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desmond Purnell729464
Austin Romaine667172
VJ Payne593003
Zashon Rich5731010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Stufflebean225550
Ryan Davis146414
Tobi Osunsanmi206420
Desmond Purnell729464
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich5731010
Desmond Purnell729464
Donovan McIntosh330004