Michigan at Oklahoma - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo (#15)Michigan Wolverines at Oklahoma Sooners(#18)Oklahoma logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Oklahoma -3 (47.5) (-148)  Open: -3.0 | 47.5
Oklahoma 24 - Michigan: 13

 
Wolverines (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 15 (13 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
OKLA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oklahoma -7   (SP+ OKLA -4)

Projected Score: MICH: 19 - OKLA: 26 (44)
OKLA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MICH Travel: 883 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Sooners (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Brent Venables (22 - 16)
Avg Score : 34 - 6 (30 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 9) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-2.546.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-16
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+5.5
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-8.5
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-11.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-29.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-20.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-9.5
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+4.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Oklahoma's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oklahoma vs Illinois State-39.561.0W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma vs Michigan-3.047.5W 24 - 13UY
Sat 9/13 Oklahoma at Temple-23.550.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/20 Oklahoma vs Auburn-6.548.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma vs Kent State-49
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma vs Texas-0
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma at South Carolina-11.5
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma vs Ole Miss-6.5
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma at Tennessee-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma at Alabama+5
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma vs Missouri-5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma vs LSU-6

Total: Elite: 9, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 9, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#41 (.3)40% (99)36.739% (103)3.02 (66)24341% (90)2094.8 (37)#42 (.05)39% (65)14.738% (59)41% (70)4 (89)47.30.72
OKLA#29 (.34)49% (36)33.751% (37)3.17 (47)15648% (41)3165.36 (19)#15 (-.05)25% (4)6.333% (25)16% (1)1.5 (7)361.70
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
OKLA#123 (.06)39% (113)43% (85)2.99 (81)14435% (122)1553.39 (112)#12 (.07)36% (5)33% (2)39% (55)3.47 (34)421.51.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense336.71339.9%4.80.7224522432096.150%50%39%41%10%.3
OKLA Defense36.3825.3%1.50 - - - - - 53%47%33%16%19%-.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense314.72438.8%42 - - - - - 44%55%38%41%20%.05
OKLA Offense333.729.548.8%5.361.7254731563164.151%48%51%48%14%.34

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan329:1722.345%25%547.30.727.72.7031.8
Oklahoma332:282548%75%4.7361.7082.3021.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense350% (71)39% (103)39.7242.76.112 (3).27 (35)3.02 (66)75% (52)7% (40)1.3 (18)
OKLA Defense353% (95)33% (25) - - - - .09 (80)2.67 (55)60% (34)13% (36)1.22 (116)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense344% (27)38% (59) - - - - .01 (52)2.78 (68)57% (28)12% (38)0.76 (26)
OKLA Offense351% (65)51% (37)38156.34.18 (26).23 (42)3.17 (47)67% (86)10% (88)0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense350% (62)41% (90)15.326.7209.37.913.72 (102)1 (23).34 (61)1.8 (18)32% (89)33% (54).54 (33)3% (26)2.1 (50)
OKLA Defense347% (45)16% (1) - - - - - - 0-.21 (6)1.8 (119)38% (16)11% (5)-.09 (11)6% (66)2.1 (90)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense355% (107)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (6).12 (43)1.3 (25)29% (109)32% (88).37 (94)7% (34)1.9 (58)
OKLA Offense348% (72)48% (41)2436316.38.813.25 (54)3 (92).47 (32)1.7 (37)26% (29)48% (6).88 (4)4% (45)2.2 (32)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 27.89 #16
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.00 #22
Michigan's Defense Rating: -3.90 #12
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50% #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #46
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 27.89   Oklahoma: 29.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 17.4   Oklahoma: 21.8




Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 29.405 #7
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 26.06 #16
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: -8.00 #6
2025 Talent Rating: 1034.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #15
Oklahoma's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
Oklahoma's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #21
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.6 #5

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 14.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Oklahoma 26
Michigan 19


Total Points: 44

Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 6.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 8

Oklahoma's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Oklahoma24Michigan13OklahomaOklahoma -3Oklahoma47.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma110 Overs
Michigan001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#16) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 27.89 #16
Offense Rating: 24.00 #22
Defense Rating: -3.90 #12
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #46
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #4
Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50% #16
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Poor Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 39%
Poor in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Michigan has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Michigan Notes
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
(7/28) Schedule is easy, miss most outside OSU
(7/12) OL 3/5 back. Has talent but depth a concern TY
(7/12) Signed J Garcia (ECU) late, Keene health?
(5/5) Def F7 still great, but lost top 5 tacklers, leaders
(5/5) HC Moore suspended for CMU/Neb games
(5/2) S Rod Moore a top 10 DB via PFF

Michigan Highlights
Michigan has Really Good Running Game (#10)
Michigan offense is explosive (#10)
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan defense does not give up big plays (#20)
Michigan has a great TO Margin (#28)
Michigan defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatOKLAMICH
OverallOver#25#19
OffenseOff#26#36
DefenseDef#21#18
Special TeamsST#50#10
PassingPass#27#75
RushingRush#25#18
Run BlockRBLK#80#32
Pass BlockPBLK#15#35
Route RunningWR Rt#19#60
TacklingTkl#52#7
Run DefenseR Def#49#18
Pass Rush DefPRush#32#49
Coverage DefCov#13#11

Rematch from Week 2
Oklahoma -3.0 (47.5)
Oklahoma won vs Michigan this year (24-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MICH | OKLA
Depth Chart: MICH | OKLA
Rosters: MICH | OKLA
(#7) Oklahoma Info
Power Rating: 29.405 #7
Offense Rating: 26.06 #16
Defense Rating: -8.00 #6
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #21
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.6 #5
Talent Rating: 1034.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #15
Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
Good Offense Success Rate of 49%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.36 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Good Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 25%
Great in Scoring Position 1.5 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Great Pass Def Success 16%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oklahoma has won 1 straight
Oklahoma has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Oklahoma Notes
(7/21) DL is loaded at DT & DE, tops in SEC
(5/11) OL has top 10 exp, 70% returning, 30% via portal
(4/30) RBs bad LY. Have talent, Ott (Cal) huge add
(4/14) WR rebuild. Burks + 2 portals. Much improved
(4/4) CB Eli Bowen just outside top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DT Gracen Halton a top 10 DT via PFF
(3/24) Portal WR Gibson(Ak PB)/Lewis(S Ill) exciting
(3/20) Word is Mateer a great fit, and a real leader.
(3/18) QB1 Mateer w/ new OC Arbuckle (WSU)
(3/18) OL returns 4/5 but awful LY. Must improve

Oklahoma Highlights
Oklahoma in Undefeated
Oklahoma is Undefeated at Home

Oklahoma offense is good in red zone (#19)
Oklahoma offense is good on 3rd downs
Oklahoma has a really good defense (#4)
Oklahoma defense is really good in red zone (#7)
Oklahoma has a good run defense (#25)
Oklahoma has a good pass defense (#1)
Oklahoma defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Oklahoma Deficiencies
Oklahoma has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Oklahoma gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#111)


  
Michigan's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood468058%628217.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Justice Haynes (Tr)4938857.975
Jordan Marshall3010923.615
Bryce Underwood1410827.728
Jasper Parker94515.011
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donaven McCulley (Tr)10158015.844
Semaj Morgan9121113.432
Channing Goodwin6107017.839
Marlin Klein7101114.427

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann201020
Jimmy Rolder161001
Brandyn Hillman131001
Cole Sullivan132200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cole Sullivan132200
Jaishawn Barham123210
Dominic Nichols62210
Troy Bowles (Tr)42110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jyaire Hill112102
Zeke Berry20002
Jaden Mangham71102

Oklahoma's OC Ben Arbuckle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Mateer (Tr)7110568%944539.0
Michael Hawkins Jr.1333%5001.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tory Blaylock3116835.425
John Mateer (Tr)3316144.951
Jovantae Barnes184512.510
Xavier Robinson134303.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaren Kanak14245017.548
Deion Burks17225213.234
Keontez Lewis (Tr)15181212.128
Isaiah Sategna (Tr)11141012.836

View Oklahoma's Full Roster
Oklahoma's DC Brent Venables
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samuel Omosigho143203
Kip Lewis131001
Kobie McKinzie121020
Owen Heinecke112002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samuel Omosigho143203
Taylor Wein83210
Wyatt Gilmore11100
Michael Boganowski41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samuel Omosigho143203
Owen Heinecke112002
Kendal Daniels (Tr)83001