Louisville at Pittsburgh - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -3 (53.5) (-155)  Open: -5.5
Louisville 34 - Pittsburgh: 27  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
PITT coming off BYE
Our Line: Louisville -0.5  (SP+ LOU -2.5)

Projected Score: LOU: 26 - PITT: 26 (52)
LOU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LOU Travel: 344 miles
Panthers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.053.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.554.5W 48 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.556.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.554.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.552.5W 53 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.551.5W 35 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.555.5L 15 - 37UN
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.561.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.549.5L 7 - 38UN
Sat 12/27 Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#82 (.16)45% (45)29.950% (13)2.84 (85)15041% (75)2093.54 (84)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (18)37% (20)3.38 (45)59.51.21.5
PITT#59 (.19)41% (95)33.741% (96)2.62 (123)10841% (76)2543.65 (76)#33 (.09)35% (11)24.834% (7)37% (27)3.81 (83)64.71.41.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1329.92344.6%3.541.2183591502095.144%53%50%41%17%.16
PITT Defense1324.825.135.2%3.811.5 - - - - - 46%52%34%37%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1321.225.536.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
PITT Offense1333.736.640.6%3.651.4193621082543.643%55%41%41%18%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1328:0117.837%55%6.559.51.21.55.22.1232.4
Pittsburgh1326:2318.933%61%7.164.71.41.56.82.2633.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1344% (112)50% (13)29.5150.25.123 (70).23 (17)2.84 (85)65% (111)10% (98)1.08 (27)
PITT Defense1346% (27)34% (7) - - - - -.03 (9)2.34 (5)69% (53)13% (9)0.98 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (18) - - - - .07 (52)2.74 (42)75% (99)11% (39)0.95 (66)
PITT Offense1343% (115)41% (96)30108.53.618 (70).06 (96)2.62 (123)67% (96)11% (106)1.01 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1353% (34)41% (75)19.430.3208.86.910.816 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (130)28% (21)27% (104).14 (123)6% (89)1.9 (106)
PITT Defense1352% (107)37% (27) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (53)1.6 (110)37% (11)26% (18).17 (20)6% (49)2.1 (95)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (20) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (8)34% (25)24% (10).11 (9)7% (37)1.9 (23)
PITT Offense1355% (22)41% (76)20.332.6253.87.812.528 (8)14 (127).34 (39)1.7 (28)33% (104)31% (63).35 (53)8% (123)2 (69)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.45  #35
Louisville's Offense Rating: 11.32  #57
Louisville's Defense Rating: -2.13  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #30
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #43
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.45   Pittsburgh: 11.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 11.7   Pittsburgh: 9.0




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 11.98  #42
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 13.68  #47
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.72  #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 26
Pittsburgh 26


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Pittsburgh 27
Louisville 17

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Pittsburgh 30
Louisville 26

Total Points: 56
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Pittsburgh27Louisville34Louisville -3Louisville53.5Over
202411/23Louisville37Pittsburgh9Louisville -7Louisville57.0Under
202310/14Pittsburgh38Louisville21Louisville -7.5Pittsburgh44.5Over
202210/22Louisville24Pittsburgh10Louisville -1.5Louisville55.0Under
202009/26Pittsburgh23Louisville20Pittsburgh -3Push53.0Under
201511/21Pittsburgh45Louisville34Pittsburgh -1.5Pittsburgh48.5Over
201210/13Pittsburgh35Louisville45
201111/12Louisville14Pittsburgh21
201010/30Pittsburgh20Louisville3
200910/02Louisville10Pittsburgh35
200811/08Pittsburgh41Louisville7
200710/27Louisville24Pittsburgh17
200611/25Pittsburgh24Louisville48
200511/03Louisville42Pittsburgh20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh723 Overs
Louisville733 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 54 - 13 - 01 - 1
Road Teams5 - 91 - 41 - 10 - 3

(#35) LOU at (#42) PITT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUPITT
Power RatePwr #35 #42
SP+SP+ #30 #36
Perf GradeGrade #26 #59
OffenseOff #55 #100
DefenseDef #12 #24
Spec TeamsST #102 #69
TalentTal #57 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #56
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
Pittsburgh Notes
(11/16) No show vs ND, non competitive. Pitt isn't good
(10/25) Four W's in a row, killed NC St, Heintschel 400+
(10/12) QB Heintschel saved season. Chance 7-2 hosting ND
(10/9) Ton of injuries, and a lot of DL. See injury report
(10/4) QB Holstein benched, Fr Mason Heintschel starting
(10/4) RB D Reid missed L'ville, out for BC game
(10/4) QB Heintschel much better, raises Offense, new #1
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
Pittsburgh Injury Report
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffPITT Def
Perf GradePerf #55 #24
SuccessSuc #45 #11
ExplosiveExp #87 #120
PPAPPA #82 #33
PowerPwr #57 #38
SP+SP+ #43 #50
Pts POPPO #84 #83
HavocHav #94 #16
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #8 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #13 #7
Run ExplRExp #27 #80
PPAExp #17 #9
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #5
Stuff RateStuff #123 #6
TackleTak -  #11
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #98 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #27
Pass ExplPExl #130 #110
PPAExp #119 #53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #99 #54
F7 HavocF7 #98 #9
DB HavocDB #89 #49
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffLOU Def
Perf GradePerf #100 #12
SuccessSuc #95 #16
ExplosiveExp #9 #24
PPAPPA #59 #15
PowerPwr #47 #25
SP+SP+ #33 #28
Pts POPPO #76 #45
HavocHav #120 #35
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #85 #59
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #18
Run ExplRExp #54 #66
PPAExp #96 #52
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #42
Stuff RateStuff #129 #52
TackleTak -  #60
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #119 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #20
Pass ExplPExl #28 #8
PPAExp #39 #6
Pass Block/RushP Blk #85 #3
F7 HavocF7 #106 #39
DB HavocDB #123 #37
Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75°
Rematch from Week 5
Louisville 3.0 (53.5)
Louisville won at Pittsburgh this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Pittsburgh last year (37-9)
Pittsburgh beat Louisville in 2023 (38-21)
Louisville beat Pittsburgh in 2022 (24-10)

  
LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga295225
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
TJ Quinn958314

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Eli Holstein7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
Desmond Reid6027824.653
Juelz Goff6927053.917
Eli Holstein368812.431
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams52741714.367
Kenny Johnson47658514.042
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)24422417.684
Desmond Reid23317213.850

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kyle Louis798333
Braylan Lovelace796162
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Kyle Louis798333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rashad Battle422105
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004