Miami at Indiana - 2025 Matchup Preview

Monday, January 19th 2026 (7:30 PM EST)
Indiana -7.5 (46.5) (-305) Open: 0.0
Indiana 27 - Miami: 21 (CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T)

Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Indiana -8 (SP+ IND -12)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 20 - IND: 28 (48)
IND Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 0 miles

Hoosiers (16 - 0) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (11 - 1)
Avg Score : 42 - 12 (49 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13.7 - 0.3 (#1)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MIAMI Players
IND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Miami vs Notre Dame	+2.5	53.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Miami vs Bethune-Cookman	-54.5	0.0	W 45 - 3	O	N
Sat 9/13	Miami vs South Florida	-17.5	56.5	W 49 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Miami vs Florida	-8.5	51.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Miami at Florida State	-3.5	54.5	W 28 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	Miami vs Louisville	-10.5	49.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/25	Miami vs Stanford	-28.5	45.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Miami at SMU	-8.5	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/8	Miami vs Syracuse	-28.5	47.5	W 38 - 10	O	N
Sat 11/15	Miami vs NC State	-16.5	54.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Miami at Virginia Tech	-18.5	49.0	W 34 - 17	O	N
Sat 11/29	Miami at Pittsburgh	-6.5	49.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Miami at Texas A&M	+3.0	48.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Miami vs Ohio State	+7.5	39.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/8	Miami vs Ole Miss	-3.0	52.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Mon 1/19	Miami vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 21 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Indiana's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Indiana vs Old Dominion	-23.5	54.5	W 27 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/6	Indiana vs Kennesaw State	-35.5	51.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Indiana vs Indiana State	-47.5	60.0	W 73 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Indiana vs Illinois	-7.0	51.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Indiana at Iowa	-9.5	47.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Indiana at Oregon	+7.0	51.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Indiana vs Michigan State	-26.5	49.5	W 38 - 13	O	N
Sat 10/25	Indiana vs UCLA	-26.5	53.5	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Indiana at Maryland	-21.0	50.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Indiana at Penn State	-13.5	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/15	Indiana vs Wisconsin	-28.5	43.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Indiana at Purdue	-28.5	53.5	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 12/6	Indiana vs Ohio State	+5.5	48.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Thu 1/1	Indiana vs Alabama	-7.5	46.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Fri 1/9	Indiana vs Oregon	-3.0	50.5	W 56 - 22	O	Y
Mon 1/19	Indiana vs Miami	-7.5	46.5	W 27 - 21	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	30.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	14.8	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
IND	#6 (.33)	52% (2)	41.6	50% (13)	3.09 (55)	166	56% (2)	261	5.03 (1)	#19 (.09)	38% (24)	11.7	35% (7)	40% (70)	3.66 (55)	43.9	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
IND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	30.9	26	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4
IND Defense	13	11.7	8.4	38.1%	3.66	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	35%	40%	21%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	14.8	15	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16
IND Offense	13	41.6	49.1	52.4%	5.03	0.7	23	428	166	261	4.5	52%	48%	50%	56%	13%	.33

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7
Indiana	13	30:42	23.5	48%	59%	4.8	43.9	0.7	1.8	6.7	2.7	2	34.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)
IND Defense	13	45% (10)	35% (7)	-	-	-	-	.01 (16)	2.4 (4)	66% (27)	13% (9)	1.05 (96)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)
IND Offense	13	52% (60)	50% (13)	37.2	166.2	4.5	37 (6)	.17 (48)	3.09 (55)	75% (53)	7% (16)	0.89 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)
IND Defense	13	55% (127)	40% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.15 (29)	1.3 (3)	32% (59)	28% (30)	.19 (21)	7% (26)	1.6 (1)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)
IND Offense	13	48% (73)	56% (2)	18.9	27.8	261.3	9.4	13.8	33 (5)	6 (10)	.53 (2)	1.6 (64)	27% (12)	39% (3)	.5 (11)	6% (73)	2.1 (52)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.83 #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47 #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36 #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55% #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7 #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 25.83 Indiana: 31.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.7 Indiana: 32.4

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: 31.02 #1
Indiana's Offense Rating: 30.19 #1
Indiana's Defense Rating: -0.59 #9
2025 Talent Rating: 726.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #44
Indiana's 2025 Expected Record: 13.7 - 0.3
Indiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.4 #1
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.9 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Indiana 28
Miami 20

Projected Total Points: 48

Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 49.1
Defense: 11.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.4

Indiana's 2025 Record
Record: 16 - 0
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	01/19	Indiana	27	Miami	21	Indiana -7.5	Miami	46.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Indiana	1	0	1 Overs
Miami	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Miami Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	CFP Nat'l Title	Miami vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 21 - 27
2025	CFP Semifinal	Miami vs Ole Miss	-3.0	52.5	W 31 - 27
2025	CFP Quarterfinal	Miami vs Ohio State	+7.5	39.5	W 24 - 14
2025	CFP 1st Round	Miami vs Texas A&M	+3.0	48.5	W 10 - 3
2024	Tarts Bowl	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42
2023	Pinstripe Bowl	Miami vs Rutgers	+3.0	41.0	L 24 - 31
2020	It Bowl	Miami vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	58.5	L 34 - 37
2019	Independence Bowl	Miami vs Louisiana Tech	-7.0	49.5	L 0 - 14

Indiana Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	CFP Nat'l Title	Indiana vs Miami	-7.5	46.5	W 27 - 21
2025	CFP Semifinal	Indiana vs Oregon	-3.0	50.5	W 56 - 22
2025	CFP Quarterfinal	Indiana vs Alabama	-7.5	46.5	W 38 - 3
2024	CFP 1st Round	Indiana vs Notre Dame	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 27
2020	Outback Bowl	Indiana vs Ole Miss	-6.5	66.5	L 20 - 26
2019	Gator Bowl	Indiana vs Tennessee	+4.0	56.0	L 22 - 23

(#6) MIAMI at (#1) IND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	IND
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#6	#1
SP+SP+	#9	#1
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#1
OffenseOff	#7	#1
DefenseDef	#4	#2
Spec TeamsST	#49	#10
TalentTal	#16	#69
Blue ChipsBC%	#9	#44

Miami Notes(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report

Indiana Notes(12/6) WR1 Omar Cooper went out of B1G title game w/ inj.
(11/28) Run game mauled Purdue, 330+yds over 10 ypc
(11/9) Mortal vs PSU, even game. Pass Def leaky?
(10/16) Cig now top 5 paid coach in CFB after PSU threat
(10/12) Staff hit #'s on portals is incredible. Scouting +
(10/11) Dominated OU, Def held to 276, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/22) DL is a terror, constant pressure with 4 rushing
(9/20) Beat Ill 63-10, 500+ yds even split. Def great
(9/20) Hoosiers real deal, B1G & CFP contenders
(9/15) RB1 Leo Beebe Jr out for season (knee)
(9/12) The cupcake murder tour is finally over.
(8/30) 500 yds but 27 pts vs ODU? Run Def issues
Indiana Injury Report

Miami on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	IND Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#2
SuccessSuc	#1	#24
ExplosiveExp	#22	#25
PPAPPA	#2	#19
PowerPwr	#13	#9
SP+SP+	#22	#2
Pts POPPO	#2	#55
HavocHav	#4	#6

Miami Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	IND Def
Run GameRun	#21	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#7
Run ExplRExp	#73	#96
PPAExp	#5	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#6
TackleTak	-	#2

Miami Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	IND Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#3
PPAExp	#6	#29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#29
F7 HavocF7	#3	#9
DB HavocDB	#15	#26

Indiana on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	IND Off	MIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#1	#4
SuccessSuc	#2	#26
ExplosiveExp	#90	#130
PPAPPA	#6	#69
PowerPwr	#1	#6
SP+SP+	#2	#7
Pts POPPO	#1	#91
HavocHav	#27	#39

Indiana Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	IND Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#9	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#16
Run ExplRExp	#107	#125
PPAExp	#48	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#62	#7
TackleTak	-	#120

Indiana Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	IND Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	#2	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#113
PPAExp	#2	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#1
F7 HavocF7	#16	#43
DB HavocDB	#73	#34

Program Comparison
IND 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Indiana -7.5 (46.5)
Indiana won vs Miami this year (27-21)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Miami last year (27-21)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Beck (Tr)	338	468	72%	3813	30	12	8.1
Emory Williams	13	19	68%	156	0	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.	216	1192	12	5.5	57
CharMar Brown (Tr)	122	460	7	3.8	13
Girard Pringle Jr.	62	375	4	6.0	38
Malachi Toney	23	113	1	4.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Toney	109	1211	10	11.1	61
Keelan Marion (Tr)	57	746	2	13.1	61
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	50	557	7	11.1	47
Elija Lofton	23	218	3	9.5	29

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)	84	3	2	1	6
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)	75	4	4	0	6
Wesley Bissainthe	71	3	1	1	0
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)	68	3	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	63	18	13	6	0
Rueben Bain Jr.	54	16	10	5	1
Keionte Scott (Tr)	64	13	5	8	5
Ahmad Moten	31	9	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)	45	2	1	1	8
OJ Frederique Jr.	19	0	0	0	7
Mohamed Toure (Tr)	84	3	2	1	6

IND's OC Mike Shanahan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)	273	379	72%	3535	41	6	9.3
Alberto Mendoza	18	24	75%	286	5	1	11.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby (Tr)	230	1120	7	4.9	82
Kaelon Black	187	1039	10	5.6	40
Khobie Martin	77	506	6	6.6	36
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)	90	276	7	3.1	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omar Cooper Jr.	70	961	13	13.7	58
Elijah Sarratt	64	806	15	12.6	49
Charlie Becker	34	679	4	20.0	53
E.J. Williams	36	438	6	12.2	62

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Bryant Haines (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rolijah Hardy	103	15	8	4	5
Aiden Fisher	95	11	5	5	1
Louis Moore (Tr)	90	3	0	0	3
Isaiah Jones	78	15	7	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rolijah Hardy	103	15	8	4	5
Isaiah Jones	78	15	7	3	2
Tyrique Tucker	38	12	6	3	2
Stephen Daley (Tr)	35	19	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Ponds	60	4	0	0	10
Amare Ferrell	48	2	0	0	6
Rolijah Hardy	103	15	8	4	5