Tennessee at Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview

Tennessee Volunteers vs Illinois Fighting Illini

Tuesday, December 30th 2025 (5:30 PM EST)
Tennessee -3 (62.5) (-142) Open: -5.5 | 61.5
Illinois 30 - Tennessee: 28 (Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl)

Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Illinois -1 (SP+ TENN -2)
Projected Score: TENN: 30 - ILL: 31 (61)
TENN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TENN Travel: 160 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (27 - 22)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
TENN Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Tennessee vs Syracuse	-13.5	53.5	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Tennessee vs East Tennessee State	-39.5	58.5	W 72 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Tennessee vs Georgia	+3.5	50.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Tennessee vs UAB	-39.5	69.5	W 56 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/27	Tennessee at Mississippi State	-7.5	63.5	W 41 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Tennessee vs Arkansas	-10.0	68.5	W 34 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/18	Tennessee at Alabama	+8.5	60.5	L 20 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/25	Tennessee at Kentucky	-7.5	55.5	W 56 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Tennessee vs Oklahoma	-3.0	55.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-41.5	59.5	W 42 - 9	U	N
Sat 11/22	Tennessee at Florida	-3.5	57.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Tennessee vs Vanderbilt	-2.0	66.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Tue 12/30	Tennessee vs Illinois	-3.0	62.5	L 28 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Illinois's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Illinois vs Western Illinois	-48.5	62.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Illinois at Duke	-2.5	49.0	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Illinois vs Western Michigan	-27.5	50.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Illinois at Indiana	+7.0	51.5	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/27	Illinois vs USC	+6.5	62.5	W 34 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Illinois at Purdue	-7.5	55.5	W 43 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Illinois vs Ohio State	+15.5	51.5	L 16 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Illinois at Washington	+3.5	54.5	L 25 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/1	Illinois vs Rutgers	-13.5	63.5	W 35 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Illinois vs Maryland	-15.5	51.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Illinois at Wisconsin	-8.5	42.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/29	Illinois vs Northwestern	-7.0	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Tue 12/30	Illinois vs Tennessee	+3.0	62.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN	#46 (.23)	47% (18)	39.8	48% (23)	3.4 (13)	227	47% (19)	221	4.02 (55)	#13 (.07)	38% (17)	28.8	36% (9)	39% (48)	3.03 (10)	66.8	1.2	1.6
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)	29.4	45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)	23.6	50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Offense	13	39.8	37	47.4%	4.02	1.2	23	448	227	221	5.1	57%	43%	48%	47%	12%	.23
ILL Defense	13	23.6	14.4	46.3%	3.48	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	50%	43%	13%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Defense	13	28.8	29	37.6%	3.03	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	36%	39%	21%	.07
ILL Offense	13	29.4	31.3	44.6%	4.23	0.9	19	338	140	198	4.4	53%	47%	45%	44%	18%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tennessee	13	29:35	23.3	47%	61%	8.1	66.8	1.2	1.6	7.2	2.2	2	31.6
Illinois	13	26:52	18.7	44%	50%	5.1	39	0.9	1.5	3.8	2.2	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Offense	13	57% (23)	48% (23)	44.7	226.8	5.1	34 (10)	.18 (39)	3.4 (13)	86% (2)	8% (33)	0.87 (115)
ILL Defense	13	48% (37)	50% (127)	-	-	-	-	.19 (108)	3.57 (132)	75% (75)	8% (120)	0.8 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Defense	13	48% (42)	36% (9)	-	-	-	-	.01 (17)	2.61 (17)	62% (15)	14% (5)	0.98 (65)
ILL Offense	13	53% (50)	45% (51)	31.8	140	4.4	20 (67)	.13 (67)	3.14 (49)	81% (17)	11% (107)	0.91 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Offense	13	43% (111)	47% (19)	18.2	28.7	221.2	7.7	12.2	21 (51)	7 (26)	.29 (51)	1.5 (113)	29% (25)	34% (41)	.38 (50)	4% (13)	1.9 (114)
ILL Defense	13	52% (95)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.19 (44)	1.4 (17)	28% (117)	34% (111)	.37 (97)	6% (84)	1.9 (40)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Defense	13	51% (87)	39% (48)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.16 (32)	1.5 (38)	33% (46)	31% (74)	.33 (80)	7% (39)	2 (44)
ILL Offense	13	47% (83)	44% (44)	15.4	25.5	197.8	7.8	12.9	21 (51)	5 (6)	.38 (16)	1.8 (15)	31% (62)	31% (81)	.42 (31)	6% (82)	2.3 (5)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 13.66 #27
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 24.25 #15
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 10.59 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53% #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0 #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #7
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #63

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.66 Illinois: 15.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 15.0 Illinois: 12.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 15.26 #15
Illinois's Offense Rating: 26.51 #8
Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.89 #37
2025 Talent Rating: 864.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.9 #24
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #41

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 31
Tennessee 30

Projected Total Points: 61

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/30	Illinois	30	Tennessee	28	Tennessee -3	Illinois	62.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	1	1	0 Overs
Tennessee	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Tennessee Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	City Bowl	Tennessee vs Illinois	-3.0	62.5	L 28 - 30
2024	CFP 1st Round	Tennessee vs Ohio State	+7.5	47.0	L 17 - 42
2023	Citrus Bowl	Tennessee vs Iowa	-4.5	37.0	W 35 - 0
2022	Orange Bowl	Tennessee vs Clemson	+4.0	62.0	W 31 - 14
2021	City Bowl	Tennessee vs Purdue	-8.0	67.0	L 45 - 48
2019	Gator Bowl	Tennessee vs Indiana	-4.0	56.0	W 23 - 22

Illinois Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	City Bowl	Illinois vs Tennessee	+3.0	62.5	W 30 - 28
2024	Citrus Bowl	Illinois vs South Carolina	+9.5	50.0	W 21 - 17
2022	Reliaquest Bowl	Illinois vs Mississippi State	+3.5	46.5	L 10 - 19
2019	Redbox Bowl	Illinois vs California	+6.0	47.5	L 20 - 35

(#27) TENN at (#15) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TENN	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#27	#15
SP+SP+	#19	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#19	#24
OffenseOff	#15	#12
DefenseDef	#55	#69
Spec TeamsST	#32	#91
TalentTal	#20	#37
Blue ChipsBC%	#10	#39

Tennessee Notes(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report

Illinois Notes(11/22) Finishes 2-3 on road after awful L @ Wisconsin
(10/10) 1st in P4 at +42 Pts off TOs w/ a TO margin +7
(9/20) Destroyed by IU, outrushed 267 to 2! Off awful
(8/15) OL banged up in fall camp, not major
(6/6) QB Altmyer 3rd yr w/ OC Lunney. Big goals TY
(6/6) RBs Laughery good, Feegan back from inj (hip)
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, Clement (WVU) + Bowick (BSU)
(6/6) OL has 4/5 back, 3 portals, should improve TY
(6/6) Def looks really deep, could be better unit
(6/6) Secondary one of best in B1G, Pass rush ?
(6/6) Def good LY, returns a lot. 7 portal DL added
(5/23) Illini were 5-1 in 1 score games LY
Illinois Injury Report

Tennessee on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#69
SuccessSuc	#18	#115
ExplosiveExp	#128	#8
PPAPPA	#46	#76
PowerPwr	#15	#37
SP+SP+	#7	#41
Pts POPPO	#55	#37
HavocHav	#15	#117

Tennessee Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#7	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	#23	#127
Run ExplRExp	#115	#5
PPAExp	#39	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#132
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#134
TackleTak	-	#33

Tennessee Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TENN Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#3	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	#19	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#113	#17
PPAExp	#51	#44
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#59	#47
F7 HavocF7	#33	#120
DB HavocDB	#13	#84

Illinois on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	TENN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#55
SuccessSuc	#45	#17
ExplosiveExp	#44	#58
PPAPPA	#31	#13
PowerPwr	#8	#48
SP+SP+	#27	#63
Pts POPPO	#39	#10
HavocHav	#103	#5

Illinois Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	TENN Def
Run GameRun	#54	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#9
Run ExplRExp	#95	#65
PPAExp	#67	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	#49	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#20	#15
TackleTak	-	#58

Illinois Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	TENN Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#41
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#48
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#38
PPAExp	#16	#32
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#74	#23
F7 HavocF7	#107	#5
DB HavocDB	#82	#39

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nissan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Tennessee 3.0 (62.5)
Illinois won vs Tennessee this year (30-28)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Tennessee last year (30-28)

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)	272	404	67%	3565	24	10	8.8
Jake Merklinger	13	24	54%	173	2	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeSean Bishop	182	1076	16	5.9	50
Star Thomas (Tr)	104	596	7	5.7	52
Peyton Lewis	70	290	7	4.1	32
Daune Morris	35	133	1	3.8	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Brazzell II	62	1017	9	16.4	72
Braylon Staley	68	837	6	12.3	73
Mike Matthews	53	813	4	15.3	62
Ethan Davis	21	257	2	12.2	40

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Edwin Spillman	81	4	3	3	2
Jeremiah Telander	80	6	1	2	0
Edrees Farooq	76	0	0	0	3
Arion Carter	75	6	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominic Bailey	27	7	5	4	0
Caleb Herring	15	6	4	6	2
Tyre West	23	8	4	1	1
Daevin Hobbs	30	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Redmond	43	1	0	0	11
Colton Hood (Tr)	50	5	0	0	8
Jalen Mcmurray	56	6	2	2	5

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer	246	365	67%	3007	22	5	8.2
Ethan Hampton (Tr)	3	4	75%	27	0	1	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ca'Lil Valentine	131	614	4	4.7	25
Kaden Feagin	122	507	7	4.2	26
Aidan Laughery	75	382	3	5.1	57
Luke Altmyer	100	242	5	2.4	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hank Beatty	70	864	3	12.3	62
Collin Dixon	35	548	5	15.7	61
Hudson Clement (Tr)	36	454	3	12.6	27
Justin Bowick (Tr)	22	265	5	12.0	25

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Bailey	76	4	0	1	2
Miles Scott	64	4	1	0	4
Dylan Rosiek	53	4	0	1	3
Torrie Cox Jr.	50	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Jacas	44	14	11	6	1
Leon Lowery	20	3	2	4	0
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)	16	5	2	3	1
Joe Barna	20	2	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaheim Clarke	30	1	0	7
Miles Scott	64	4	1	4
James Kreutz	30	4	0	3