Tennessee at Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo Tennessee Volunteers vs Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois logo
Tuesday, December 30th 2025 (5:30 PM EST)
Tennessee -3 (62.5) (-142)  Open: -5.5 | 61.5
Illinois 30 - Tennessee: 28  (Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl)

 
Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Tennessee -6  (SP+ TENN -4.5)

Projected Score: TENN: 31 - ILL: 25 (57)
TENN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TENN Travel: 370 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (27 - 22)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.559.5W 42 - 9UN
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-3.557.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.066.5L 24 - 45ON
Tue 12/30 Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Illinois vs Western Illinois-48.562.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Illinois at Duke-2.549.0W 45 - 19OY
Sat 9/13 Illinois vs Western Michigan-27.550.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 Illinois at Indiana+7.051.5L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/27 Illinois vs USC+6.562.5W 34 - 32OY
Sat 10/4 Illinois at Purdue-7.555.5W 43 - 27OY
Sat 10/11 Illinois vs Ohio State+15.551.5L 16 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Illinois at Washington+3.554.5L 25 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Illinois vs Rutgers-13.563.5W 35 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Illinois vs Maryland-15.551.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 11/22 Illinois at Wisconsin-8.542.5L 10 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Illinois vs Northwestern-7.044.5W 20 - 13UN
Tue 12/30 Illinois vs Tennessee+3.062.5W 30 - 28UY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#7 (.34)51% (6)39.852% (4)3.04 (52)16450% (9)2844.66 (11)#68 (.16)44% (97)28.846% (111)41% (67)4.16 (115)51.31.11.5
ILL#41 (.21)47% (19)29.447% (35)2.97 (66)12149% (13)2214.3 (27)#97 (.2)45% (114)23.639% (39)50% (134)4.27 (122)37.90.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1339.83751%4.661.1244481642844.749%49%52%50%12%.34
ILL Defense1323.614.445.1%4.271.2 - - - - - 43%55%39%50%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1328.82943.7%4.161.5 - - - - - 50%49%46%41%19%.16
ILL Offense1329.431.347.4%4.30.8193421212213.850%48%47%49%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1325:3023.850%73%5.851.31.11.56.22.6328.4
Illinois1328:0919.242%60%4.337.90.81.24.41.8130.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1349% (71)52% (4)34.9164.14.732 (16).26 (10)3.04 (52)84% (3)7% (18)0.95 (74)
ILL Defense1343% (7)39% (39) - - - - .05 (40)2.78 (50)73% (87)9% (89)0.91 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1350% (71)46% (111) - - - - .09 (65)2.81 (56)81% (123)12% (12)0.85 (16)
ILL Offense1350% (61)47% (35)32.2121.23.820 (40).05 (101)2.97 (66)71% (75)10% (94)0.8 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1349% (67)50% (9)21.432.2283.58.813.326 (14)10 (88).43 (18)1.6 (57)26% (15)35% (22).48 (15)5% (33)2.2 (11)
ILL Defense1355% (129)50% (134) - - - - - - 6 (123).33 (103)1.3 (5)28% (120)37% (132).39 (114)6% (49)2 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1349% (80)41% (67) - - - - - - 10 (75).23 (59)1.6 (67)31% (70)27% (29).26 (58)7% (46)2.2 (124)
ILL Offense1348% (75)49% (13)17.826220.78.512.422 (33)6 (7).44 (15)1.6 (44)29% (35)37% (15).38 (40)5% (33)1.9 (102)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.08  #15
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 27.97  #5
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 6.89  #59
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.2  #21
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #5
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #61

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 21.08   Illinois: 12.365

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 15.2   Illinois: 10.9




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 12.365  #34
Illinois's Offense Rating: 21.04  #17
Illinois's Defense Rating: 7.21  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 864.00  #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.9  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #35
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 31
Illinois 25


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Tennessee 22
Illinois 21

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 30
Tennessee 29

Total Points: 59
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/30Illinois30Tennessee28Tennessee -3Illinois62.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois110 Overs
Tennessee001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

Tennessee Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025City Bowl Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30
2024CFP 1st Round Tennessee vs Ohio State+7.547.0L 17 - 42
2023Citrus Bowl Tennessee vs Iowa-4.537.0W 35 - 0
2022Orange Bowl Tennessee vs Clemson+4.062.0W 31 - 14
2021City Bowl Tennessee vs Purdue-8.067.0L 45 - 48
2019Gator Bowl Tennessee vs Indiana-4.056.0W 23 - 22
Illinois Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025City Bowl Illinois vs Tennessee+3.062.5W 30 - 28
2024Citrus Bowl Illinois vs South Carolina+9.550.0W 21 - 17
2022Reliaquest Bowl Illinois vs Mississippi State+3.546.5L 10 - 19
2019Redbox Bowl Illinois vs California+6.047.5L 20 - 35
  
(#15) TENN at (#34) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTENNILL
Power RatePwr #15 #34
SP+SP+ #21 #31
Perf GradeGrade #17 #27
OffenseOff #17 #18
DefenseDef #35 #63
Spec TeamsST #53 #69
TalentTal #20 #37
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #39
Tennessee Notes
(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report
Illinois Notes
(11/22) Finishes 2-3 on road after awful L @ Wisconsin
(10/10) 1st in P4 at +42 Pts off TOs w/ a TO margin +7
(9/20) Destroyed by IU, outrushed 267 to 2! Off awful
(8/15) OL banged up in fall camp, not major
(6/6) QB Altmyer 3rd yr w/ OC Lunney. Big goals TY
(6/6) RBs Laughery good, Feegan back from inj (hip)
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, Clement (WVU) + Bowick (BSU)
(6/6) OL has 4/5 back, 3 portals, should improve TY
(6/6) Def looks really deep, could be better unit
(6/6) Secondary one of best in B1G, Pass rush ?
(6/6) Def good LY, returns a lot. 7 portal DL added
(5/23) Illini were 5-1 in 1 score games LY
Illinois Injury Report
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffILL Def
Perf GradePerf #17 #63
SuccessSuc #6 #114
ExplosiveExp #52 #34
PPAPPA #7 #97
PowerPwr #5 #64
SP+SP+ #5 #41
Pts POPPO #11 #122
HavocHav #17 #73
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffILL Def
Run GameRun #12 #45
Run SuccessRSuc #4 #39
Run ExplRExp #74 #43
PPAExp #10 #40
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLY #52 #50
Stuff RateStuff #15 #54
TackleTak -  #33
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #3 #99
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #134
Pass ExplPExl #57 #5
PPAExp #18 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #34 #42
F7 HavocF7 #18 #89
DB HavocDB #33 #49
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatILL OffTENN Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #35
SuccessSuc #19 #97
ExplosiveExp #106 #25
PPAPPA #41 #68
PowerPwr #17 #59
SP+SP+ #35 #61
Pts POPPO #27 #115
HavocHav #65 #18
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ILL OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #69 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #35 #111
Run ExplRExp #129 #16
PPAExp #101 #65
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #56
Stuff RateStuff #87 #39
TackleTak -  #63
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatILL OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #37 #46
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #67
Pass ExplPExl #44 #67
PPAExp #15 #59
Pass Block/RushP Blk #79 #24
F7 HavocF7 #94 #12
DB HavocDB #33 #46
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nissan Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 32° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Tennessee 3.0 (62.5)
Illinois won vs Tennessee this year (30-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)25838667%344424108.9
Jake Merklinger132454%173207.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop163983146.050
Star Thomas (Tr)9552975.652
Peyton Lewis7029074.132
Daune Morris3513313.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II621017916.472
Braylon Staley64806612.673
Mike Matthews50770415.462
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter756221
Edwin Spillman744332
Jeremiah Telander716120
Edrees Farooq710002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey257530
Tyre West227411
Caleb Herring156452
Daevin Hobbs283322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond391009
Colton Hood (Tr)505008
Jalen Mcmurray546223

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer22633268%28112158.5
Ethan Hampton (Tr)3475%27016.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ca'Lil Valentine12354944.525
Kaden Feagin11949974.226
Aidan Laughery6230534.957
Luke Altmyer9018842.136
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Hank Beatty64826312.962
Collin Dixon33538516.361
Hudson Clement (Tr)33406312.327
Justin Bowick (Tr)19234412.325

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey764012
Miles Scott594104
Dylan Rosiek494013
Torrie Cox Jr.461003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas44141161
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)165231
Leon Lowery183230
James Thompson Jr. (Tr)333221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaheim Clarke291007
Miles Scott594104
James Kreutz273003