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Duke Blue Devils (@DukeFootball)
Manny Diaz (2nd year) (13-5)
Record: 4 - 2 (3 - 0)  |  Proj: 7 - 5 (#61)  |  SOS: (#60)
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Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-2.061.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+11.5
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-3.5
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia+0.5
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-11.5
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-3

Record Prediction: 7.0 - 5.0  #61
Schedule Rating:  #60
Record: 4 - 2( ACC: 3 - 0)
Spread Record 3 - 3 - 0 | O/U 5 - 1
Future 2026 Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

2024 Schedule Rating:  #62
2024 Record: 9 - 4 (ACC: 5 - 3)
Spread Record 8 - 4 - 1 | O/U 7 - 6


Opponents: 0 Elite, 4 Good, 3 Avg, 4 Bad, 0 Poor
Played: 0 Elite, 1 Good, 1 Avg, 3 Bad, 0 Poor
Future: 0 Elite, 3 Good, 2 Avg, 1 Bad, 0Poor
Reg Season Opponents: 2 Elite, 2 Good, 2 Avg, 4 Bad, 2 Poor

Show Past Schedules
2025 class: 221 points   #31
2024 class: 184 points   #62
2023 class: 192 points   #55
2022 class: 187 points   #52
2021 class: 176 points   #58

Average Class Ranking:   #52
Average Recruiting Points: 192

Four Year Crootin Profile
Improving Average P4
4 Year Class:  #48 - Best:  #31 Worst:  #62



CFB Crootin Averages
ACC Class: 211  #42
Power 4 Class: 225  #42
FBS Class: 179  #69


2020 class: 172 points   #61
2019 class: 191 points   #49
2018 class: 177 points   #63
2017 class: 184 points   #47
2016 class: 205 points   #33

Average Class Ranking:   #51
Average Recruiting Points: 186
 

2025 Portal Class  #91 - 8 players, 86 Avg
2024 Portal Class  #41 - 11 players, 87 Avg
2023 Portal Class  #58 - 9 players, 86 Avg
2022 Portal Class  #87 - 8 players, 85 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes
Portal Data only 2022 forward

Offensive Coordinator Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)14320570%18381529.0
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard5644748.049
Anderson Castle (Tr)4226366.366
Jaquez Moore3417015.032
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)26475418.346
Que'Sean Brown27400114.844
Sahmir Hagans20248412.433
Andrel Anthony Jr.15156310.435
(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DaShawn Stone411000
Caleb Weaver (Tr)392101
Jaiden Francois (Tr)342101
Tre Freeman274110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony2010611
Wesley Williams226260
Elliott Schaper152200
Aaron Hall206220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers222014
Josiah Green (Tr)143202
Luke Mergott213042
Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 58%  #55
Offense Returning Production: 60%  #57
Defense Returning Production: 56%  #59

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class  #91
8 Commits, 86 Avg Rating
11% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 9% TY
Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Offense Talent  #63 | Defense Talent  #32
2024  #56 | 2023  #1 | 2022  #62 | 2021  #60


2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 4 - 2
2025 Conf Record: 3 - 0
Spread: 3 - 3 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 1

2024 Record: 9 - 4
2024 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 8 - 4 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

2023 Record: 8 - 5
2023 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

2022 Record: 9 - 4
2022 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 9 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 8

Four Year Record: 30 - 15
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 27 - 17 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 17 - 10
2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 3 - 9
2021 Conf Record: 0 - 8
Spread: 4 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2020 Record: 2 - 9
2020 Conf Record: 1 - 9
Spread: 4 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 5

2019 Record: 5 - 7
2019 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 5 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 4

2018 Record: 8 - 5
2018 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

Eight Year Record: 48 - 45
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 47 - 45 - 1
Eight Year Conference Record: 29 - 37

Duke Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Gator Bowl Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52
2023Birmingham Bowl Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10
2022Military Bowl Duke vs UCF-3.563.0W 30 - 13
2018Independence Bowl Duke vs Temple+3.556.5W 56 - 27
2017Lane Bowl Duke vs Northern Illinois-4.548.0W 36 - 14
2015Pinstripe Bowl Duke vs Indiana+2.0W 44 - 41
Power Ranking Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2025.34 (19)1.36 (19)48% (28)4.2 (57)32.2 (21)45%70%.22 (103)1.47 (130)40% (53)4.55 (122)27.1 (47)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2024.12 (109)1.26 (84)39% (116)3.7 (90)31.2 (24)29%38%.06 (10)1.17 (22)38% (16)3.19 (17)28.6 (58)



More Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
2025627:5723.345%70%773.31.228.72.81
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20241325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.21



Overall Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2025 Offense636.536.336.748.2% (28)4.2 (57)1.2234671573105.242% (119)58% (18)45% (57)50% (18)13% (28).34 (19)
2025 Defense625.531.719.340.1% (53)4.55 (122)2 - - - - - 50% (76)50% (61)37% (27)43% (86)21% (12).22 (103)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2024 Offense1326.325.728.438.6% (116)3.7 (90)1.416315892263.344% (110)56% (24)35% (129)42% (69)19% (115).12 (109)
2024 Defense1324.519.32637.6% (16)3.19 (17)2 - - - - - 52% (81)48% (53)41% (51)34% (5)23% (2).06 (10)



Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2025 Offense642% (119)45% (57)30.2157.25.212 (48).15 (57)3.06 (57)90% (5)10% (76)1.03 (49)
2025 Defense650% (76)37% (27) - - - - .09 (68)2.29 (9)69% (59)15% (3)1.21 (129)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2024 Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)
2024 Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)



Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2025 Offense658% (18)50% (18)24.2353108.912.815 (13)2 (11).48 (17)1.6 (55)30% (51)34% (42).36 (55)3% (7)1.9 (89)
2025 Defense650% (61)43% (86) - - - - - - 8 (12).35 (114)1.7 (117)35% (23)33% (105).46 (124)6% (80)2.1 (98)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2024 Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)
2024 Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)




Overall
Power Rating  #54 | SP+ Rating  #42
Performance Grade  #25
Special Teams Grade  #24
Record Prediction 7.0 - 5.0  #61
5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Offense
Power  #39 | SP+  #28 | Grade  #9
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Off Success  #28 | Explosivness  #19
Rush Grade  #35 | Pass Grade  #2
Rush Success  #57 | Explosiveness  #49
Pass Success  #18 | Explosiveness  #55
Run Block  #7 | Pass Block  #35
OL YDS  #57 | Stuff Rate  #70
Scoring Zone Off:  #57

Defense
Power  #85 | SP+  #57 | Grade  #84
Def Success  #53 | Explosivness  #130
Rush Success  #27 | Explosiveness  #129
Tackling  #101 | Run Def  #49
Pass Success  #86 | Explosiveness  #117
Pass Rush  #64 | Coverage  #103
F7 Havoc  #3 | DB Havoc  #80
Scoring Zone Def  #122


Roster
Team Talent  #48 Blue Chips: 5%  #54
Offense Talent  #63 Defense Talent  #32
Crootin: '25 Class  #31 - 4 YR Class:  #48
Profile: Improving Average P4
Portal Class  #91 - 8 players, 86 Avg
11% of Roster from Portal, 9% TY
50 New Players, 52% of '25 Roster  #23

Scoring & Records
Scoring: 36.5 - 25.5 (26 - 25) in '24
Scoring at Home: 36 - 32 | Road: 37 - 19
OC: Jonathan Brewer - in his second season
DC: Jonathan Patke - in his second season

2025 Record: 4 - 2 (3 - 3 - 0) (ACC: 3 - 0)
2024 Record: 9 - 4 (8 - 4 - 1) (ACC: 5 - 3)
2023 Record: 8 - 5 (7 - 6 - 0) (ACC: 4 - 4)
4 Yr Record: (30 - 15) | 8 Yr Record: (48 - 45)


Notes
Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
WR rebuild, #3/4 back were productive
 
'25 Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Good Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.2 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg Offensive Turnovers
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg 1st/2nd Down Success 70%
Good when off Schedule 34%

'25 Defense
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.55 PPO
Good Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Great at Forcing Turnovers
Poor Penalty Team, Avg Field Position
Good 1st/2nd Down Success 65%
Poor when Opp is off Schedule 33%

Returning Prod
DUKE lost their '24 starting QB (61%)  #68
Returning Production: 58%  #55
Offense: 60%  #57 | Defense: 56%  #59
OL Prod: 82%  #13, 4 clear starters
OL Snaps: 3513  #39 | From Portal: 0  #100
Rush Prod: 54%  #65 | Rec Prod: 36%  #97
Def Front Seven: 54% - Secondary: 74%
Vegas Preseason Win Total: 6.5 - 5.5

 
4 Year Overall
2025 SP+ Overall:  #42 - Power Rating:  #54
2024 SP+ Overall:  #44 - Power Rating:  #50
2023 SP+ Overall:  #29 - Power Rating:  #40
2022 SP+ Overall:  #55

#55 #35 #47 #48

4 Year Offense
2025 SP+ Offense:  #28 - Power Rating:  #39
2024 SP+ Offense:  #71 - Power Rating:  #113
2023 SP+ Offense:  #53 - Power Rating:  #48
2022 SP+ Offense:  #61

#61 #51 #92 #34

4 Year Defense
2025 SP+ Defense:  #57 - Power Rating:  #85
2024 SP+ Defense:  #31 - Power Rating:  #17
2023 SP+ Defense:  #25 - Power Rating:  #59
2022 SP+ Defense:  #50

#50 #42 #24 #71