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Baylor Bears (@BUFootball)
Dave Aranda (6th year) (35-31)
Record: 4 - 2 (2 - 1)  |  Proj: 7 - 5 (#69)  |  SOS: (#36)
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Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+2.565.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+7.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+10
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+0
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-7.5

Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3  #69
Schedule Rating:  #36
Record: 4 - 2( B12: 2 - 1)
Spread Record 1 - 5 - 0 | O/U 4 - 2
Future 2026 Schedule

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23UY
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35OY
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17UY
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44ON

2024 Schedule Rating:  #51
2024 Record: 8 - 5 (B12: 6 - 3)
Spread Record 9 - 4 - 0 | O/U 8 - 5


Opponents: 2 Elite, 3 Good, 5 Avg, 0 Bad, 1 Poor
Played: 1 Elite, 1 Good, 2 Avg, 0 Bad, 1 Poor
Future: 1 Elite, 2 Good, 3 Avg, 0 Bad, 0Poor
Reg Season Opponents: 2 Elite, 3 Good, 4 Avg, 1 Bad, 2 Poor

Show Past Schedules
2025 class: 210 points   #36
2024 class: 179 points   #67
2023 class: 211 points   #34
2022 class: 208 points   #37
2021 class: 190 points   #44

Average Class Ranking:   #44
Average Recruiting Points: 200

Four Year Crootin Profile
Improving Average P4
4 Year Class:  #45 - Best:  #34 Worst:  #67



CFB Crootin Averages
Big 12 Class: 201  #49
Power 4 Class: 225  #49
FBS Class: 179  #69


2020 class: 181 points   #54
2019 class: 203 points   #35
2018 class: 215 points   #29
2017 class: 193 points   #40
2016 class: 192 points   #40

Average Class Ranking:   #40
Average Recruiting Points: 197
 

2025 Portal Class  #47 - 14 players, 87 Avg
2024 Portal Class  #39 - 9 players, 88 Avg
2023 Portal Class  #23 - 13 players, 87 Avg
2022 Portal Class  #79 - 3 players, 90 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes
Portal Data only 2022 forward

Offensive Coordinator Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson15824864%20581948.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington10255755.541
Caden Knighten3716914.649
Michael Turner2612114.717
Joseph Dodds71902.75
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron32456314.348
Michael Trigg29439415.142
Kole Wilson (Tr)24324213.557
Ashtyn Hawkins24304012.736
(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas513002
Devyn Bobby331001
Kyland Reed241010
Jacob Redding230002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)113200
Jackie Marshall115200
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Micah Gifford71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Jenkins81003
Keaton Thomas513002
Caldra Williford (Tr)91002
Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 68%  #11
Offense Returning Production: 72%  #14
Defense Returning Production: 65%  #25

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class  #47
14 Commits, 86.5 Avg Rating
30% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 23% TY
Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Offense Talent  #44 | Defense Talent  #20
2024  #39 | 2023  #1 | 2022  #41 | 2021  #41


2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 4 - 2
2025 Conf Record: 2 - 1
Spread: 1 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 2

2024 Record: 8 - 5
2024 Conf Record: 6 - 3
Spread: 9 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 5

2023 Record: 3 - 9
2023 Conf Record: 2 - 7
Spread: 3 - 8 - 1 | Totals: 6 - 6

2022 Record: 6 - 7
2022 Conf Record: 4 - 5
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 9 - 4

Four Year Record: 21 - 23
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 20 - 23 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 14 - 16
2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 12 - 2
2021 Conf Record: 8 - 2
Spread: 10 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 8

2020 Record: 2 - 7
2020 Conf Record: 2 - 7
Spread: 3 - 4 - 2 | Totals: 2 - 7

2019 Record: 11 - 3
2019 Conf Record: 8 - 2
Spread: 9 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 8

2018 Record: 7 - 6
2018 Conf Record: 4 - 5
Spread: 6 - 6 - 1 | Totals: 6 - 7

Eight Year Record: 53 - 41
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 48 - 42 - 4
Eight Year Conference Record: 40 - 32

Baylor Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Texas Bowl Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44
2022Forces Bowl Baylor vs Air Force-3.542.0L 15 - 30
2021Sugar Bowl Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7
2019Sugar Bowl Baylor vs Georgia+4.044.0L 14 - 26
2018Texas Bowl Baylor vs Vanderbilt+4.056.5W 45 - 38
2016Cactus Bowl Baylor vs Boise State+10.071.0W 31 - 12
2015Athletic Bowl Baylor vs North Carolina-3.5W 49 - 38
Power Ranking Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2025.3 (30)1.35 (27)47% (37)4.19 (59)28.7 (79)40%52%.16 (66)1.14 (27)43% (91)4.34 (110)26.6 (34)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2024.25 (29)1.3 (49)47% (23)4.28 (30)31.5 (17)44%61%.18 (74)1.34 (102)39% (38)3.85 (77)25.9 (7)



More Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
2025628:302640%52%6.3641.714.51.21
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20241325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.82



Overall Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2025 Offense636.331.346.546.5% (37)4.19 (59)1.7264941463494.439% (129)60% (10)44% (65)49% (25)13% (36).3 (30)
2025 Defense629.726.53643.2% (91)4.34 (110)1 - - - - - 55% (112)44% (24)45% (101)41% (70)15% (101).16 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2024 Offense1334.437.33246.8% (23)4.28 (30)121401174227552% (61)48% (75)46% (37)48% (14)12% (17).25 (29)
2024 Defense1326.719.830.739.4% (38)3.85 (77)1.6 - - - - - 54% (107)46% (29)38% (13)42% (78)15% (83).18 (74)



Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2025 Offense639% (129)44% (65)32.8145.54.48 (87).17 (49)3.12 (49)72% (74)8% (26)1.02 (52)
2025 Defense655% (112)45% (101) - - - - .11 (82)3.15 (113)90% (132)8% (109)0.87 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2024 Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)
2024 Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)



Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2025 Offense660% (10)49% (25)27.242.5348.78.212.819 (3)4 (50).38 (34)1.5 (72)30% (50)39% (13).56 (17)5% (55)2 (72)
2025 Defense644% (24)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (46).25 (72)1.5 (46)30% (104)27% (39).25 (57)7% (47)1.8 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2024 Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)
2024 Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)




Overall
Power Rating  #41 | SP+ Rating  #51
Performance Grade  #53
Special Teams Grade  #75
Record Prediction 6.7 - 5.3  #69
5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Offense
Power  #27 | SP+  #22 | Grade  #48
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
Off Success  #37 | Explosivness  #27
Rush Grade  #108 | Pass Grade  #67
Rush Success  #65 | Explosiveness  #52
Pass Success  #25 | Explosiveness  #72
Run Block  #26 | Pass Block  #84
OL YDS  #49 | Stuff Rate  #46
Scoring Zone Off:  #59

Defense
Power  #64 | SP+  #90 | Grade  #52
Def Success  #91 | Explosivness  #27
Rush Success  #101 | Explosiveness  #36
Tackling  #30 | Run Def  #84
Pass Success  #70 | Explosiveness  #46
Pass Rush  #109 | Coverage  #20
F7 Havoc  #109 | DB Havoc  #47
Scoring Zone Def  #110


Roster
Team Talent  #24 Blue Chips: 6%  #49
Offense Talent  #44 Defense Talent  #20
Crootin: '25 Class  #36 - 4 YR Class:  #45
Profile: Improving Average P4
Portal Class  #47 - 14 players, 87 Avg
30% of Roster from Portal, 23% TY
62 New Players, 59% of '25 Roster  #68

Scoring & Records
Scoring: 36.3 - 29.7 (34 - 27) in '24
Scoring at Home: 31 - 27 | Road: 47 - 36
OC: Jake Spavital - in his second season
DC: Matt Powledge - been DC for 3 years

2025 Record: 4 - 2 (1 - 5 - 0) (B12: 2 - 1)
2024 Record: 8 - 5 (9 - 4 - 0) (B12: 6 - 3)
2023 Record: 3 - 9 (3 - 8 - 1) (B12: 2 - 7)
4 Yr Record: (21 - 23) | 8 Yr Record: (53 - 41)


Notes
TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
#2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
 
'25 Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.19 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 49%
Poor Offensive Turnovers
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg 1st/2nd Down Success 70%
Great when off Schedule 39%

'25 Defense
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.34 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad at Forcing Turnovers
Bad Penalty Team, Bad Field Position
Poor 1st/2nd Down Success 70%
Good when Opp is off Schedule 27%

Returning Prod
HC Aranda, OC Spavital & QB all back
'24 QB Sawyer Robertson returns
Returning Production: 68%  #11
Offense: 72%  #14 | Defense: 65%  #25
OL Prod: 81%  #15, 4 clear starters
OL Snaps: 3652  #35 | From Portal: 16  #93
Rush Prod: 84%  #23 | Rec Prod: 87%  #10
Def Front Seven: 53% - Secondary: 77%
Vegas Preseason Win Total: 7.5 - 4.5

 
4 Year Overall
2025 SP+ Overall:  #51 - Power Rating:  #41
2024 SP+ Overall:  #38 - Power Rating:  #22
2023 SP+ Overall:  #98 - Power Rating:  #108
2022 SP+ Overall:  #30

#30 #103 #30 #46

4 Year Offense
2025 SP+ Offense:  #22 - Power Rating:  #27
2024 SP+ Offense:  #25 - Power Rating:  #20
2023 SP+ Offense:  #78 - Power Rating:  #99
2022 SP+ Offense:  #22

#22 #89 #23 #25

4 Year Defense
2025 SP+ Defense:  #90 - Power Rating:  #64
2024 SP+ Defense:  #63 - Power Rating:  #30
2023 SP+ Defense:  #105 - Power Rating:  #127
2022 SP+ Defense:  #62

#62 #116 #47 #77