New Mexico State at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo   New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos  New Mexico logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -16.5 (53.5) (-750)  Open: -10.0
New Mexico 38 - New Mexico State: 20

 
Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
NMSU coming off BYE
UNM coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico -12.5  (SP+ UNM -16)

Projected Score: NMSU: 20 - UNM: 32 (52)
UNM Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
NMSU Travel: 193 miles
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.559.5L 9 - 42UY
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+4.044.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.552.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)27.643% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)27.153% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)22.350% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.62039.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
UNM Defense1222.318.750.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1227.637.541.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
UNM Offense1227.128.348.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -18.16  #128
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #127
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 20.76  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.16   New Mexico: -4.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5   New Mexico: 0.9




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -4.28  #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15  #118
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61  #106
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 32
New Mexico State 20


Projected Total Points: 52
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27New Mexico38New Mexico State20New Mexico -16.5New Mexico53.5Over
202409/28New Mexico State40New Mexico50New Mexico -9.5New Mexico54.0Over
202309/16New Mexico17New Mexico State27New Mexico -2.5New Mexico State52.0Under
202210/15New Mexico State21New Mexico9New Mexico -7New Mexico State38.5Under
202109/11New Mexico34New Mexico State25New Mexico -19.5New Mexico State55.5Over
201909/21New Mexico55New Mexico State52New Mexico -4New Mexico State69.0Over
201809/15New Mexico State25New Mexico42New Mexico -3New Mexico60.5Over
201709/09New Mexico28New Mexico State30New Mexico -7New Mexico State69.5Under
201609/10New Mexico State32New Mexico31New Mexico -11.5New Mexico State62.0Over
201510/03New Mexico38New Mexico State29New Mexico -14New Mexico State65.5Over
201409/20New Mexico State35New Mexico38New Mexico -3NA0
201310/05New Mexico66New Mexico State17New Mexico -7New Mexico0
201209/22New Mexico State14New Mexico27
201110/01New Mexico28New Mexico State42
201010/09New Mexico State16New Mexico14
200909/26New Mexico17New Mexico State20
200809/27New Mexico State24New Mexico35
200709/08New Mexico44New Mexico State34
200609/09New Mexico State28New Mexico34
200509/17New Mexico38New Mexico State21
200409/25New Mexico State3New Mexico38
200309/27New Mexico24New Mexico State17
200209/21New Mexico State24New Mexico13
200111/24New Mexico53New Mexico State0
200009/15New Mexico State13New Mexico16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico1747 Overs
New Mexico State873 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 124 - 72 - 52 - 2
Road Teams12 - 137 - 42 - 25 - 2

(#128) NMSU at (#118) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUUNM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #128 #118
SP+SP+ #123 #73
Perf GradeGrade #112 #54
OffenseOff #127 #90
DefenseDef #76 #24
Spec TeamsST #23 #61
TalentTal #132 #127
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffUNM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #24
SuccessSuc #106 #132
ExplosiveExp #95 #68
PPAPPA #119 #132
PowerPwr #127 #106
SP+SP+ #112 #66
Pts POPPO #82 #128
HavocHav #112 #114
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #135 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #125
Run ExplRExp #61 #64
PPAExp #81 #110
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #103
Stuff RateStuff #28 #94
TackleTak -  #51
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #99 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #131
Pass ExplPExl #17 #81
PPAExp #128 #132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #123 #7
F7 HavocF7 #103 #118
DB HavocDB #104 #79
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #90 #76
SuccessSuc #10 #64
ExplosiveExp #86 #127
PPAPPA #14 #115
PowerPwr #118 #115
SP+SP+ #82 #120
Pts POPPO #79 #60
HavocHav #12 #128
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #91 #98
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #69
Run ExplRExp #21 #95
PPAExp #1 #98
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #93
Stuff RateStuff #3 #66
TackleTak -  #42
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #40 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #68
Pass ExplPExl #125 #132
PPAExp #77 #118
Pass Block/RushP Blk #107 #57
F7 HavocF7 #1 #134
DB HavocDB #85 #78
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
New Mexico -16.5 (53.5)
New Mexico won vs New Mexico State this year (38-20)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat New Mexico State last year (38-20)
New Mexico beat New Mexico State in 2024 (50-40)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2023 (27-17)

  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)20336156%223211126.2
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)11745033.829
Dijon Stanley (Tr)7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Tyler King (Tr)81802.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel61661710.855
Tyler King (Tr)41588314.364
Gavin Harris (Tr)36514114.334
Glynn Johnson Jr27335312.440

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Jamall Thompson618440
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)41115102
Jamall Thompson618440
Tory Gethers875312
Ta'Avili Tuitama194230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown173006
Stilton McKelvey182005

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)21332765%248613107.6
James Laubstein111765%96205.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)11463555.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)11146474.254
James Laubstein5936316.258
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)59754312.880
Dorian Thomas (Tr)56560410.034
Damon Bankston (Tr)31397312.884
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1287232
Tavian Combs721103
Jon Johnson540006
Mercury Swaim527212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955
Brett Karhu2911852
Gabriel Lopez146211
Mercury Swaim527212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech100008
Jon Johnson540006
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955