North Carolina at California - 2025 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at California Golden Bears

Friday, October 17th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
California -7.5 (45.5) (-340) Open: -12.5
California 21 - North Carolina: 18 (ACC)

Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)

UNC coming off BYE
CAL coming off BYE
Our Line: California -5.5 (SP+ CAL -3)
Projected Score: UNC: 20 - CAL: 26 (46)
CAL Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 2370 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
CAL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU	+3.0	59.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte	-16.5	49.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond	-24.5	47.5	W 41 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF	+7.0	46.5	L 9 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson	+15.5	47.5	L 10 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	North Carolina at California	+7.5	45.5	L 18 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia	+12.5	51.5	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford	-8.5	41.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+3.5	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke	+6.5	50.5	L 25 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State	+7.0	48.5	L 19 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

California's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	California at Oregon State	+3.0	51.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/6	California vs Texas Southern	-44.5	54.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/13	California vs Minnesota	+3.0	41.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/20	California at San Diego State	-14.0	47.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/27	California at Boston College	+6.0	54.5	W 28 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/4	California vs Duke	+3.5	54.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	California vs North Carolina	-7.5	45.5	W 21 - 18	U	N
Fri 10/24	California at Virginia Tech	+6.5	50.5	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/1	California vs Virginia	+6.5	52.5	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/8	California at Louisville	+18.5	48.5	W 29 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	California at Stanford	-4.5	47.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	California vs SMU	+13.5	53.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Wed 12/24	California at Hawai'i	+1.5	50.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)	19.3	47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)	24.5	44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.3	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	27.2	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	19.3	17.5	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2
CAL Defense	13	27.2	24.3	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.5	23	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17
CAL Offense	13	25.3	27.2	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.60 #72
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.32 #78
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.92 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.60 California: 1.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6 California: -3.2

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.4 #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12 #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00 #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #80
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #72

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
California 26
North Carolina 20

Projected Total Points: 46

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/17	California	21	North Carolina	18	California -7.5	North Carolina	45.5	Under
2018	09/01	California	24	North Carolina	17	California -7	Push	57.5	Under
2017	09/02	North Carolina	30	California	35	North Carolina -12.5	California	57.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
California	3	1	1 Overs
North Carolina	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#72) UNC at (#63) CAL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	CAL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#72	#63
SP+SP+	#91	#80
Perf GradeGrade	#83	#87
OffenseOff	#99	#84
DefenseDef	#52	#62
Spec TeamsST	#70	#122
TalentTal	#17	#55
Blue ChipsBC%	#29	#88

North Carolina Notes(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report

California Notes(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CAL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#62
SuccessSuc	#80	#52
ExplosiveExp	#39	#88
PPAPPA	#65	#48
PowerPwr	#78	#64
SP+SP+	#123	#72
Pts POPPO	#52	#20
HavocHav	#49	#42

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#108	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#53
Run ExplRExp	#36	#37
PPAExp	#14	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#71
TackleTak	-	#109

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#9
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#92
PPAExp	#101	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#49	#77
F7 HavocF7	#54	#72
DB HavocDB	#60	#12

California on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#52
SuccessSuc	#88	#53
ExplosiveExp	#52	#66
PPAPPA	#79	#70
PowerPwr	#61	#62
SP+SP+	#77	#58
Pts POPPO	#125	#90
HavocHav	#102	#90

California Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#124	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#82
Run ExplRExp	#22	#29
PPAExp	#99	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#121
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#126
TackleTak	-	#71

California Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#125
PPAExp	#72	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#82	#39
F7 HavocF7	#126	#83
DB HavocDB	#23	#103

Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
California -7.5 (45.5)
California won vs North Carolina this year (21-18)

Previous Matchups
California beat North Carolina last year (21-18)

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	170	261	65%	1747	10	5	6.7
Max Johnson	54	87	62%	437	2	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demon June	84	464	2	5.5	50
Benjamin Hall (Tr)	71	274	2	3.9	18
Davion Gause	61	258	3	4.2	25
Giovanni Lopez	86	133	3	1.5	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Shipp	60	671	6	11.2	55
Kobe Paysour	35	438	1	12.5	44
Demon June	17	159	1	9.4	72
Javarius Green	13	150	0	11.5	39

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khmori House (Tr)	73	3	1	6	1
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	59	9	5	6	1
Will Hardy	51	2	0	0	0
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)	47	12	11	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)	47	12	11	5	0
Tyler Thompson	26	8	7	1	1
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	59	9	5	6	1
C.J. Mims (Tr)	41	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Marcus Allen	35	2	1	8
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)	20	2	0	6
Jaiden Patterson	33	2	0	5

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)	315	491	64%	3446	18	9	7.0
Devin Brown (Tr)	4	7	57%	48	1	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	233	952	13	4.1	33
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)	33	108	2	3.3	12
Brandon High	23	98	1	4.3	22
Anthony League	11	38	1	3.5	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)	107	1022	6	9.6	41
Trond Grizzell	55	788	1	14.3	35
Mason Mini (Tr)	35	387	4	11.1	51
Quaron Adams (Tr)	20	273	1	13.7	39

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cade Uluave	97	12	3	4	4
Luke Ferrelli	91	5	1	1	1
Dru Polidore	62	3	0	0	3
Aidan Keanaaina	56	3	2	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush (Tr)	39	11	5	4	1
Cade Uluave	97	12	3	4	4
Chris Victor (Tr)	24	5	3	4	0
Jayden Wayne (Tr)	26	5	3	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	42	1	0	13
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)	47	1	0	12
Derek Wilkins	12	0	1	8