North Carolina at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Friday, October 17th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
California -7.5 (45.5) (-340)  Open: -12.5
California 21 - North Carolina: 18  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
UNC coming off BYE
CAL coming off BYE
Our Line: California -6  (SP+ CAL -5)

Projected Score: UNC: 20 - CAL: 26 (46)
CAL Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 2370 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5W 20 - 15UN
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.537.5L 12 - 28ON
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+6.550.5L 25 - 32ON
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+7.048.5L 19 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
CAL#98 (.12)41% (95)25.338% (119)2.64 (120)8343% (57)2753.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (118)38% (34)3.69 (71)64.61.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
CAL Defense1327.224.342.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
CAL Offense1325.327.240.6%3.71.220358832752.839%60%38%43%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
California1330:1419.940%52%7.864.61.21.14.61.5027.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
CAL Defense1346% (27)47% (118) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (116)0.98 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (89)
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)29.682.52.821 (78)-.04 (133)2.64 (120)70% (81)10% (74)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (56)1.8 (130)
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (23)1.4 (10)32% (64)26% (23).16 (15)7% (21)1.7 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (57)24.838.8275.37.111.120 (61)10 (119).23 (78)1.5 (108)32% (77)33% (32).36 (49)7% (105)1.9 (113)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.60  #71
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.32  #78
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.92  #61
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1  #97
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.3  #125
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9  #62

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.60   California: 1.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -8.1   California: -3.4




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.3  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
California 26
North Carolina 20


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 23
California 20

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
California 25
North Carolina 22

Total Points: 47
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/17California21North Carolina18California -7.5North Carolina45.5Under
201809/01California24North Carolina17California -7Push57.5Under
201709/02North Carolina30California35North Carolina -12.5California57.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California311 Overs
North Carolina012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#71) UNC at (#63) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCCAL
Net PPPPPP #89 #93
Power RatePwr #71 #63
SP+SP+ #97 #85
Perf GradeGrade #83 #87
OffenseOff #99 #84
DefenseDef #52 #62
Spec TeamsST #70 #122
TalentTal #17 #55
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #88
North Carolina Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCAL Def
PPPOffPPP #107 #101
Perf GradePerf #99 #62
SuccessSuc #115 #79
ExplosiveExp #121 #31
PPAPPA #119 #71
PowerPwr #78 #63
SP+SP+ #125 #75
Pts POPPO #108 #71
HavocHav #94 #80
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #108 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #118
Run ExplRExp #127 #83
PPAExp #130 #122
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #110 #129
Stuff RateStuff #67 #134
TackleTak -  #109
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #91 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #34
Pass ExplPExl #103 #10
PPAExp #92 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #49 #77
F7 HavocF7 #111 #116
DB HavocDB #56 #21
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPP #65 #81
Perf GradePerf #84 #52
SuccessSuc #95 #60
ExplosiveExp #65 #62
PPAPPA #98 #78
PowerPwr #61 #61
SP+SP+ #87 #62
Pts POPPO #66 #61
HavocHav #91 #91
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #124 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #64
Run ExplRExp #102 #89
PPAExp #133 #91
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #37
Stuff RateStuff #58 #99
TackleTak -  #71
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #26 #75
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #50
Pass ExplPExl #108 #17
PPAExp #78 #51
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #39
F7 HavocF7 #74 #70
DB HavocDB #105 #90
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 59° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 8
California -7.5 (45.5)
California won vs North Carolina this year (21-18)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez17026165%17471056.7
Max Johnson548762%437205.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)7127423.918
Davion Gause6125834.225
Giovanni Lopez8613331.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Kobe Paysour35438112.544
Demon June1715919.472
Javarius Green13150011.539

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)733161
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
Will Hardy512000
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
Tyler Thompson268711
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
C.J. Mims (Tr)413200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen352108
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)202006
Jaiden Patterson332005

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018