North Carolina at California Game Matchup
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Friday, October 17th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
California Memorial Stadium - Berkeley, CA  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#67)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
UNC coming off BYE
CAL coming off BYE
Our Line: North Carolina -1.5   (SP+ UNC -2.5)
Projected Score: UNC: 27 - CAL: 25 (54)
UNC Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UNC Travel: 2370 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU-1.557.5
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-19.5
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-25.5
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+21
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California-1.5
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia-4.5
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+6
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-10
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest-6.5
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+1.5
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 California at Oregon State+1.50.0
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-21.5
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+9.5
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+7
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+5.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina+1.5
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+10.5
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia-0.5
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+17
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-1
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)30.947% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)28.144% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.140% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)22.341% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1330.927.242%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
CAL Defense1322.32140.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1328.120.840.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
CAL Offense1325.130.941.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.77 #62
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 1.77   California: 0.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 2.0   California: -0.3




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 0.28 #79
California's Offense Rating: 9.97 #93
California's Defense Rating: 14.11 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
California's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 27
California 25

Projected Total Points: 54
California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201809/01California24North Carolina17CaliforniaCalifornia -7Push57.5Under
201709/02North Carolina30California35CaliforniaNorth Carolina -12.5California57.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California211 Overs
North Carolina001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#62) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.77 #62
Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74
Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


North Carolina Notes
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
(3/21) Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no
(3/21) Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9
North Carolina     Ratings Matchup     California
Power #62
#79
Off #61
#93
Def #62
#64
Talent #35
#57
SP+ #54
#65
SP+ Off #39
#79
SP+ Def #74
#51

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | CAL
Depth Chart: UNC | CAL
Rosters: UNC | CAL
(#79) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.28 #79
Offense Rating: 9.97 #93
Defense Rating: 14.11 #64
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51
Talent Rating: 754.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


California Notes
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
(4/17) RB room decimated. 5 entered portal post spring
(4/17) TE Endries gone via portal post spring, big loss
(4/17) New OC Harsin a bad start, lead to portal mess
(4/4) Donors want Wilcox reporting to new GM Rivera
(3/21) QB Brown (OSU), Fr Sagapolutele huge add
(3/21) WR has pieces, talent. 5 portals past 2 yrs
(3/21) OL a huge issue LY. 2/5 back, 5 portal adds
(3/21) Def bad LY, replacing a lot. 6 portal adds
(3/21) DC Sirmon left for NFL.


  
North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez20531166%25571858.2
Max Johnson121963%71013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Giovanni Lopez8246575.750
Davion Gause6732644.921
Charleston French108418.445
Caleb Hood188104.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Paysour21365017.436
Aziah Johnson (Tr)16276217.352
Chris Culliver6135122.550
Jordan Shipp9114112.722

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost613104
Gavin Gibson (Tr)527013
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)496133
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pryce Yates (Tr)217451
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)83210
C.J. Mims (Tr)214100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)4320010
Kaleb Cost613104
Khmori House (Tr)331014

California's OC Bryan Harsin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Harris193161%184015.9
Devin Brown (Tr)112055%114105.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brandon High9349585.366
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)7842535.440
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)7430354.135
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)1810105.643
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)36512314.243
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Landon Morris (Tr)16251115.758
Dazmin James (Tr)3137145.794

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Vacant
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buom Jock (Tr)973023
Harrison Taggart (Tr)693143
Cade Uluave683152
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
Ryan McCulloch185381
Nathan Burrell295311
Serigne Tounkara52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4800010
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)381004