Oregon at Penn State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oregon logo (#6)Oregon Ducks at Penn State Nittany Lions(#3)Penn State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -4.5 (52.5) (-190)  Open: -6.5 | 52.5
Oregon 30 - Penn State: 24  (Big Ten)

 
Ducks (11 - 1) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 38 - 15 (33 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 1 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
PSU coming off BYE
ORE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -7.5  (SP+ ORE -11.5)

Projected Score: ORE: 30 - PSU: 23 (53)
PSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
ORE Travel: 2288 miles, 3 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#74)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-33.558.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+4.552.5W 30 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-7.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.562.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.544.5W 21 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-4.541.5W 18 - 16UN
Fri 11/14 Oregon vs Minnesota-26.545.5W 42 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-10.559.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-6.551.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 12/20 Oregon vs James Madison-21.050.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+3.048.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE#3 (.38)51% (6)38.253% (3)3.3 (16)21849% (12)2474.41 (25)#7 (.02)37% (16)14.840% (41)35% (13)3.77 (76)50.60.81.4
PSU#30 (.25)48% (20)31.848% (24)3.14 (33)17847% (29)1824.46 (24)#55 (.13)42% (69)21.444% (93)40% (51)3.44 (48)37.50.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Offense1238.232.850.7%4.410.8234652182475.852%46%53%49%9%.38
PSU Defense1221.415.141.8%3.441.1 - - - - - 53%46%44%40%15%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Defense1214.815.636.7%3.771.4 - - - - - 50%48%40%35%18%.02
PSU Offense1231.83447.6%4.460.8203591781824.956%42%48%47%13%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon1230:5622.749%64%5.350.60.81.44.81.9430.5
Penn State1229:1219.642%63%4.237.50.81.16.22.3232.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Offense1252% (46)53% (3)37.6218.45.830 (16).32 (3)3.3 (16)80% (15)6% (5)1.04 (39)
PSU Defense1253% (109)44% (93) - - - - .12 (76)2.95 (82)68% (44)11% (33)0.95 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Defense1250% (65)40% (41) - - - - .04 (35)2.74 (40)72% (79)9% (78)0.9 (39)
PSU Offense1256% (24)48% (24)36.2177.54.930 (26).23 (20)3.14 (33)75% (54)9% (53)1.02 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Offense1246% (92)49% (12)20.328246.88.812.225 (6)6 (34).46 (12)1.6 (60)26% (12)31% (61).42 (28)3% (4)2.1 (46)
PSU Defense1246% (33)40% (51) - - - - - - 6 (55).22 (58)1.4 (22)29% (105)28% (42).26 (57)5% (120)1.9 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Defense1248% (66)35% (13) - - - - - - 13 (22).1 (16)1.6 (82)36% (17)27% (38).17 (19)9% (7)1.9 (25)
PSU Offense1242% (115)47% (29)16.925.3181.67.210.714 (86)7 (60).29 (54)1.4 (125)25% (9)32% (45).34 (54)5% (22)1.9 (100)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.05  #3
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.91  #8
Oregon's Defense Rating: -10.88  #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67%  #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.1  #13
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.4  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 28.05   Penn State: 20.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 27.1   Penn State: 15.8




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.21  #18
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.85  #19
Penn State's Defense Rating: 0.23  #30
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #20
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.9  #21
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #31

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oregon Scoring
Offense: 38.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.6

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 30
Penn State 23


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 27
Oregon 27

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 27
Penn State 24

Total Points: 51
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 21.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Penn State24Oregon30Penn State -4.5Oregon52.5Over
202412/07Oregon45Penn State37Oregon -3.5Oregon51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State002 Overs
Oregon220 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#3) ORE at (#18) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOREPSU
Power RatePwr #3 #18
SP+SP+ #4 #20
Perf GradeGrade #6 #23
OffenseOff #4 #35
DefenseDef #11 #32
Spec TeamsST #17 #5
TalentTal #3 #4
Blue ChipsBC% #5 #10
Oregon Notes
(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #4 #32
SuccessSuc #6 #69
ExplosiveExp #45 #17
PPAPPA #3 #55
PowerPwr #8 #30
SP+SP+ #13 #31
Pts POPPO #25 #48
HavocHav #3 #72
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #1 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #93
Run ExplRExp #39 #67
PPAExp #3 #76
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #16 #82
Stuff RateStuff #16 #70
TackleTak -  #53
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #5 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #51
Pass ExplPExl #60 #22
PPAExp #12 #58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #17
F7 HavocF7 #5 #33
DB HavocDB #4 #120
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffORE Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #11
SuccessSuc #20 #16
ExplosiveExp #108 #47
PPAPPA #30 #7
PowerPwr #19 #4
SP+SP+ #21 #5
Pts POPPO #24 #76
HavocHav #39 #24
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffORE Def
Run GameRun #23 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #41
Run ExplRExp #52 #39
PPAExp #20 #35
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #40
Stuff RateStuff #25 #109
TackleTak -  #7
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #89 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #29 #13
Pass ExplPExl #125 #82
PPAExp #54 #16
Pass Block/RushP Blk #11 #46
F7 HavocF7 #53 #78
DB HavocDB #22 #7
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Penn State -4.5 (52.5)
Oregon won at Penn State this year (30-24)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Penn State last year (45-37)

  
ORE's OC Will Stein (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore22731373%27332468.7
Brock Thomas121675%130108.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11277466.968
Jordon Davison87535136.167
Dierre Hill Jr.5948148.266
Jayden Limar4224935.953
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)31526417.064
Kenyon Sadiq40490812.330
Dakorien Moore28443315.865
Jeremiah McClellan25397215.951

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher1004123
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)642114
Teitum Tuioti5714743
Aaron Flowers531002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti5714743
Matayo Uiagalelei289563
Nasir Wyatt82210
A'Mauri Washington294255
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Finney Jr.293107
Jadon Canady (Tr)320005
A'Mauri Washington294255

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer10014469%1079647.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)116906.316
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)44452110.343
Devonte Ross (Tr)28417514.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds2422909.522

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)9610330
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca636233
King Mack (Tr)561113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton3810683
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)9610330
Tony Rojas255221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II180003
Daryus Dixson222103
Dominic DeLuca636233