NC State at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#16)

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -23.5 (59.5) (-2800) Open: -21.5
Notre Dame 36 - NC State: 7

Wolfpack (4 - 3) (3 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (25 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

ND 2nd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 5th straight game
NCST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -21 (SP+ ND -19)
Projected Score: NCST: 20 - ND: 41 (61)
ND Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
NCST Travel: 574 miles

Fighting Irish (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 21 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-12.5	58.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/6	NC State vs Virginia	-3.0	53.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Thu 9/11	NC State at Wake Forest	-7.5	52.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/20	NC State at Duke	+3.0	57.5	L 33 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/27	NC State vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	57.5	L 21 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/4	NC State vs Campbell	-42.5	61.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/11	NC State at Notre Dame	+23.5	59.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	NC State at Pittsburgh	+9
Sat 11/1	NC State vs Georgia Tech	+6.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	NC State at Miami	+21.5
Fri 11/21	NC State vs Florida State	+5.5
Sat 11/29	NC State vs North Carolina	-15.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Notre Dame at Miami	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Notre Dame vs Texas A&M	-7.5	48.5	L 40 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-24.5	51.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Notre Dame at Arkansas	-5.5	64.5	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Notre Dame vs Boise State	-21.5	63.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/11	Notre Dame vs NC State	-23.5	59.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Notre Dame vs USC	-9.5	61.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Notre Dame at Boston College	-26.5
Sat 11/8	Notre Dame vs Navy	-24.5
Sat 11/15	Notre Dame at Pittsburgh	-9.5
Sat 11/22	Notre Dame vs Syracuse	-30.5
Sat 11/29	Notre Dame at Stanford	-30.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#33 (.29)	45% (54)	30	42% (86)	2.75 (94)	150	47% (29)	268	4.47 (39)	#88 (.2)	37% (23)	26.6	35% (17)	38% (41)	3.8 (69)	51.7	1.4	0.7
ND	#13 (.35)	50% (18)	40	49% (27)	3.06 (56)	175	51% (16)	293	5.05 (14)	#64 (.16)	41% (69)	20.8	43% (82)	40% (62)	3.36 (37)	50	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	7	30	24.7	44.7%	4.47	1.4	22	418	150	268	4.5	48%	52%	42%	47%	18%	.29
ND Defense	6	20.8	21.3	41.3%	3.36	2	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	43%	40%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	7	26.6	35	36.7%	3.8	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	35%	38%	15%	.2
ND Offense	6	40	40	49.9%	5.05	1	24	468	175	293	5	53%	47%	49%	51%	14%	.35

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	7	30:53	21.6	40%	47%	5.4	51.7	1.4	0.7	5.7	1.6	1	26.7
Notre Dame	6	29:54	23.7	49%	36%	5.8	50	1	2	3.5	2.3	2	31.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	7	48% (89)	42% (86)	33.3	150	4.5	14 (28)	.14 (63)	2.75 (94)	71% (82)	12% (119)	1.09 (25)
ND Defense	6	44% (16)	43% (82)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.16 (117)	68% (52)	6% (134)	0.9 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	7	44% (15)	35% (17)	-	-	-	-	.14 (94)	2.64 (36)	68% (50)	9% (91)	1.31 (135)
ND Offense	6	53% (42)	49% (27)	34.8	174.7	5	17 (16)	.23 (31)	3.06 (56)	54% (134)	9% (71)	1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	7	52% (46)	47% (29)	23	32.4	268	8.3	11.7	14 (22)	8 (125)	.44 (28)	1.6 (38)	32% (88)	34% (45)	.44 (37)	6% (74)	2.1 (51)
ND Defense	6	56% (121)	40% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (2)	.19 (52)	1.5 (69)	34% (38)	26% (31)	.23 (51)	8% (10)	2 (82)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	7	56% (122)	38% (41)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (62)	.26 (82)	1.7 (115)	37% (14)	30% (83)	.41 (112)	6% (80)	2.1 (102)
ND Offense	6	47% (90)	51% (16)	19	28	292.8	10.5	15.4	13 (27)	3 (26)	.5 (14)	1.7 (18)	29% (36)	45% (3)	.62 (9)	5% (52)	1.8 (109)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 12.45 #49
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.74 #40
NC State's Defense Rating: 6.29 #61
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.6 #66
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #58
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #70

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 12.45 Notre Dame: 28.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 2.6 Notre Dame: 21.3

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 28.64 #10
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 29.14 #8
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.15 #27
2025 Talent Rating: 1072.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 58 #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.3 #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #23

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 833
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.7
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 41
NC State 20

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 37
NC State 30

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 35
NC State 24

Total Points: 59

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense at Home: 40
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Notre Dame	36	NC State	7	Notre Dame -23.5	Notre Dame	59.5	Under
2023	09/09	NC State	24	Notre Dame	45	Notre Dame -7	Notre Dame	49.5	Over
2017	10/28	Notre Dame	35	NC State	14	Notre Dame -7	Notre Dame	61.0	Under
2016	10/08	NC State	10	Notre Dame	3	Notre Dame -2.5	NC State	56.5	Under
2002	01/01	Notre Dame	6	NC State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	3	3	1 Overs
NC State	2	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2

(#49) NCST at (#10) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	ND
Power RatePwr	#49	#10
SP+SP+	#66	#9
Perf GradeGrade	#49	#18
OffenseOff	#39	#10
DefenseDef	#31	#45
Spec TeamsST	#94	#44
TalentTal	#43	#6
Blue ChipsBC%	#39	#8

NC State Notes
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush

Notre Dame Notes
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
(9/15) Pass Def is awful. DB depth is huge issue
(9/15) DL a big issue, no pass rush w/ all these DEs?
(8/31) Carr is a baller, but OL is not good. Def leaked
(8/19) QB1 will be CJ Carr, beat Kenny Minchey

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Perf GradePerf	#39	#45
SuccessSuc	#54	#69
ExplosiveExp	#14	#60
PPAPPA	#33	#64
PowerPwr	#40	#27
SP+SP+	#58	#23
Pts POPPO	#39	#37
HavocHav	#110	#103

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#62	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#82
Run ExplRExp	#25	#43
PPAExp	#63	#93
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	#94	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#123
TackleTak	-	#28

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#38	#69
PPAExp	#28	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#23	#73
F7 HavocF7	#119	#134
DB HavocDB	#74	#10

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#31
SuccessSuc	#18	#23
ExplosiveExp	#16	#132
PPAPPA	#13	#88
PowerPwr	#8	#61
SP+SP+	#4	#70
Pts POPPO	#14	#69
HavocHav	#58	#103

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#14	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#17
Run ExplRExp	#34	#135
PPAExp	#31	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#44
TackleTak	-	#57

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#12	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#41
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#115
PPAExp	#14	#82
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#38
F7 HavocF7	#71	#91
DB HavocDB	#52	#80

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 64° - Wind: 5 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Notre Dame -23.5 (59.5)
Notre Dame won vs NC State this year (36-7)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat NC State in 2023 (45-24)

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	155	215	72%	1846	14	7	8.6
Lex Thomas	2	6	33%	18	0	0	3.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	112	739	5	6.6	59
Jayden Scott	44	211	3	4.8	35
CJ Bailey	49	64	3	1.3	30
Will Wilson	13	29	3	2.2	5

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terrell Anderson	24	445	4	18.5	75
Justin Joly	30	264	3	8.8	22
Wesley Grimes	14	243	1	17.4	48
Noah Rogers	15	235	1	15.7	48

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Fordham	69	6	2	2	1
Sean Brown	44	4	0	4	1
Ronnie Royal III	34	1	0	0	1
Cian Slone (Tr)	33	4	1	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)	23	6	3	5	2
Travali Price	14	4	3	3	1
Caden Fordham	69	6	2	2	1
Tra Thomas (Tr)	18	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamel Johnson (Tr)	16	1	0	4
Devon Marshall	23	0	1	4
Brian Nelson II (Tr)	14	0	0	3

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
C.J. Carr	105	158	67%	1622	13	3	10.3
Kenny Minchey	8	9	89%	95	0	0	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	100	530	8	5.3	46
Jadarian Price	63	422	7	6.7	49
Nolan James Jr.	8	33	0	4.1	15
Aneyas Williams	6	30	1	5.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Faison	29	376	2	13.0	48
Eli Raridon	20	342	0	17.1	65
Malachi Fields (Tr)	18	339	2	18.8	66
Will Pauling (Tr)	13	243	3	18.7	42

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drayk Bowen	31	1	1	2	0
Adon Shuler	29	0	0	0	2
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	28	2	1	1	1
Jaiden Ausberry	26	1	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Boubacar Traore	24	6	5	3
Jaylen Sneed	14	3	2	0
Drayk Bowen	31	1	1	2
Jordan Botelho	11	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Christian Gray	11	0	6
Mark Zackery IV	7	1	2
Adon Shuler	29	0	2