NC State at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#16)Notre Dame logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -23.5 (59.5) (-2800)  Open: -21.5
Notre Dame 36 - NC State: 7

 
Wolfpack (5 - 4) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 32 - 31 (27 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 5.7 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
ND 2nd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 5th straight game
NCST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -20  (SP+ ND -18)

Projected Score: NCST: 21 - ND: 41 (62)
ND Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
NCST Travel: 574 miles
Fighting Irish (6 - 2) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 20 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 2.2 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+18.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+4.5
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-11

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Notre Dame at Miami-2.553.5L 24 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Notre Dame vs Texas A&M-7.548.5L 40 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Notre Dame vs Purdue-24.551.5W 56 - 30OY
Sat 9/27 Notre Dame at Arkansas-5.564.5W 56 - 13OY
Sat 10/4 Notre Dame vs Boise State-21.563.5W 28 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 Notre Dame vs NC State-23.559.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Notre Dame vs USC-10.560.5W 34 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Notre Dame at Boston College-31.555.5W 25 - 10UN
Sat 11/8 Notre Dame vs Navy-30.554.5
Sat 11/15 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh-8.5
Sat 11/22 Notre Dame vs Syracuse-35.5
Sat 11/29 Notre Dame at Stanford-30.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#21 (.29)44% (50)32.443% (78)2.89 (60)16246% (34)2784.64 (18)#98 (.19)38% (27)30.635% (10)41% (66)3.93 (92)58.11.20.8
ND#11 (.32)49% (15)37.448% (27)2.94 (51)18950% (11)2744.51 (27)#54 (.12)39% (46)19.940% (43)40% (55)3.04 (18)57.912.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense932.42744.2%4.641.2214391622785.147%53%43%46%16%.29
ND Defense819.921.839.5%3.042.3 - - - - - 42%57%40%40%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense930.639.538.3%3.930.8 - - - - - 43%56%35%41%14%.19
ND Offense837.438.848.9%4.511234631892745.454%45%48%50%14%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State930:1821.342%39%658.11.20.85.31.4127
Notre Dame829:3623.444%40%6.357.912.34.92.6331.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense947% (96)43% (78)31.8161.65.119 (40).15 (53)2.89 (60)71% (74)11% (104)1.07 (28)
ND Defense842% (5)40% (43) - - - - .06 (58)2.82 (80)69% (49)8% (110)0.9 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense943% (9)35% (10) - - - - .05 (46)1.53 (1)58% (13)8% (107)1.2 (131)
ND Offense854% (42)48% (27)35.3189.15.422 (11).19 (29)2.94 (51)57% (131)9% (62)1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense953% (37)46% (34)23.333.4277.88.311.920 (33)8 (119).43 (19)1.7 (27)32% (77)33% (52).44 (31)6% (66)2.2 (25)
ND Defense857% (132)40% (55) - - - - - - 16 (1).18 (48)1.5 (79)34% (28)30% (76).32 (88)9% (5)2 (62)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense956% (129)41% (66) - - - - - - 6 (75).32 (106)1.7 (113)35% (20)30% (80).39 (112)6% (78)2.1 (110)
ND Offense845% (95)50% (11)18.527.52741014.816 (33)4 (34).44 (16)1.7 (20)29% (39)44% (2).58 (9)5% (30)1.9 (96)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.00  #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 16.93  #32
NC State's Defense Rating: 6.93  #72
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 5.7
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.6  #58
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #38
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 10.00   Notre Dame: 26.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 3.6   Notre Dame: 21.4




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 26.805  #8
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.55  #13
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -4.39  #15
2025 Talent Rating: 1060.00  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 57  #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 9.8 - 2.2
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.4  #6
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4  #7
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #18

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


NC State Scoring
Offense: 32.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.5

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 41
NC State 21


Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 37
NC State 30

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 37
NC State 25

Total Points: 62
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 37.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.8

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Notre Dame36NC State7Notre Dame -23.5Notre Dame59.5Under
202309/09NC State24Notre Dame45Notre Dame -7Notre Dame49.5Over
201710/28Notre Dame35NC State14Notre Dame -7Notre Dame61.0Under
201610/08NC State10Notre Dame3Notre Dame -2.5NC State56.5Under
200201/01Notre Dame6NC State28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame331 Overs
NC State213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 23 - 12 - 01 - 1
Road Teams2 - 31 - 31 - 10 - 2

(#46) NCST at (#8) ND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTND
Power RatePwr #46 #8
SP+SP+ #58 #6
Perf GradeGrade #56 #9
OffenseOff #37 #4
DefenseDef #69 #18
Spec TeamsST #80 #25
TalentTal #43 #7
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #8
NC State Notes
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
NC State Injury Report
Notre Dame Notes
(11/4) Huge issues at K, missed 2 XP, short FG vs BC
(10/20) OG Billy Schrauth out until at least Pitt/Cuse (3 OL)
(10/18) 300 yds rush vs USC, Pass Def torched, huge Win
(10/16) DL G Rubio out vs SC (best DT) & L Thomas (depth)
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
(9/15) Pass Def is awful. DB depth is huge issue
Notre Dame Injury Report
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #37 #18
SuccessSuc #50 #46
ExplosiveExp #10 #90
PPAPPA #21 #54
PowerPwr #32 #15
SP+SP+ #38 #18
Pts POPPO #18 #18
HavocHav #85 #44
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffND Def
Run GameRun #76 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #78 #43
Run ExplRExp #28 #46
PPAExp #53 #58
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #80
Stuff RateStuff #127 #74
TackleTak -  #25
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffND Def
Pass GamePass #47 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #34 #55
Pass ExplPExl #27 #79
PPAExp #19 #48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #28 #18
F7 HavocF7 #104 #110
DB HavocDB #66 #5
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatND OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #4 #69
SuccessSuc #15 #27
ExplosiveExp #9 #131
PPAPPA #11 #98
PowerPwr #13 #72
SP+SP+ #7 #81
Pts POPPO #27 #92
HavocHav #44 #103
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ND OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #11 #39
Run SuccessRSuc #27 #10
Run ExplRExp #17 #131
PPAExp #29 #46
Run BlockR Blk #40 -
OL YdsOLY #51 #1
Stuff RateStuff #108 #24
TackleTak -  #56
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatND OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #13 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #11 #66
Pass ExplPExl #20 #113
PPAExp #16 #106
Pass Block/RushP Blk #53 #63
F7 HavocF7 #62 #107
DB HavocDB #30 #78
Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Notre Dame -23.5 (59.5)
Notre Dame won vs NC State this year (36-7)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat NC State in 2023 (45-24)

  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey20328771%24111978.4
Lex Thomas2633%18003.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers12082566.965
Jayden Scott7143146.169
CJ Bailey6013742.330
Will Wilson185843.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson28527418.875
Justin Joly36365510.159
Wesley Grimes22337115.348
Noah Rogers25333213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham927341
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)563151
Cian Slone (Tr)4562101
Sean Brown444041
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham927341
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)287373
Travali Price174341
Tra Thomas (Tr)194240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall280016
Jamel Johnson (Tr)241005
Jackson Vick281004

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
C.J. Carr13920967%20571649.8
Kenny Minchey8989%950010.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love141894116.394
Jadarian Price8552186.149
Nolan James Jr.83304.115
Aneyas Williams63015.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Faison39518213.348
Eli Raridon24406016.965
Malachi Fields (Tr)21400319.066
Will Pauling (Tr)19332517.544

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen503222
Adon Shuler431004
Tae Johnson390003
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa396311
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boubacar Traore307640
Jaylen Sneed235330
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa396311
Drayk Bowen503222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Gray171007
Adon Shuler431004
Tae Johnson390003