NC State at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#16)

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -23.5 (59.5) (-2800) Open: -21.5
Notre Dame 36 - NC State: 7

Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

ND 2nd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 5th straight game
NCST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -25 (SP+ ND -21)
Projected Score: NCST: 18 - ND: 43 (62)
ND Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
NCST Travel: 574 miles

Fighting Irish (10 - 2) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-12.5	58.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/6	NC State vs Virginia	-3.0	53.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Thu 9/11	NC State at Wake Forest	-7.5	52.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/20	NC State at Duke	+3.0	57.5	L 33 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/27	NC State vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	57.5	L 21 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/4	NC State vs Campbell	-42.5	61.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/11	NC State at Notre Dame	+23.5	59.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	NC State at Pittsburgh	+5.5	52.5	L 34 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/1	NC State vs Georgia Tech	+4.5	58.5	W 48 - 36	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	NC State at Miami	+16.5	54.5	L 7 - 41	U	N
Fri 11/21	NC State vs Florida State	+7.0	58.5	W 21 - 11	U	Y
Sat 11/29	NC State vs North Carolina	-7.0	48.5	W 42 - 19	O	Y
Fri 12/19	NC State vs Memphis	-6.0	56.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Notre Dame at Miami	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Notre Dame vs Texas A&M	-7.5	48.5	L 40 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-24.5	51.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Notre Dame at Arkansas	-5.5	64.5	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Notre Dame vs Boise State	-21.5	63.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/11	Notre Dame vs NC State	-23.5	59.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Notre Dame vs USC	-10.5	60.5	W 34 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Notre Dame at Boston College	-31.5	55.5	W 25 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/8	Notre Dame vs Navy	-30.5	54.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Notre Dame at Pittsburgh	-12.5	55.5	W 37 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Notre Dame vs Syracuse	-36.5	51.5	W 70 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Notre Dame at Stanford	-32.5	50.5	W 49 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#20 (.28)	44% (50)	30.2	44% (64)	2.94 (68)	147	44% (44)	246	4.69 (8)	#102 (.21)	39% (39)	27.2	38% (19)	40% (55)	3.7 (72)	53.8	1	1.2
ND	#4 (.36)	49% (10)	42	47% (25)	3.05 (50)	204	51% (6)	255	4.79 (6)	#12 (.04)	36% (13)	17.6	38% (20)	36% (16)	2.58 (6)	53.1	0.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	30.2	23	43.8%	4.69	1	20	393	147	246	4.5	47%	51%	44%	44%	16%	.28
ND Defense	12	17.6	18	36.4%	2.58	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	38%	36%	18%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	27.2	39.8	39.2%	3.7	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	38%	40%	15%	.21
ND Offense	12	42	44.7	49%	4.79	0.8	23	460	204	255	5.9	53%	45%	47%	51%	13%	.36

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	29:56	20.4	41%	50%	5.5	53.8	1	1.2	5.1	1.5	1	27.9
Notre Dame	12	29:17	22.5	48%	55%	5.5	53.1	0.8	1.9	5.8	2.8	7	32.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	47% (86)	44% (64)	32.5	147.1	4.5	27 (40)	.19 (33)	2.94 (68)	73% (61)	10% (98)	1.1 (19)
ND Defense	12	43% (6)	38% (20)	-	-	-	-	.04 (37)	2.74 (39)	71% (66)	9% (77)	0.89 (32)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	43% (5)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	.12 (80)	2.87 (64)	65% (25)	8% (109)	1.09 (124)
ND Offense	12	53% (38)	47% (25)	34.8	204.4	5.9	38 (11)	.25 (11)	3.05 (50)	62% (122)	8% (36)	1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	51% (49)	44% (44)	21.5	31.8	245.7	7.7	11.4	26 (33)	10 (119)	.39 (25)	1.6 (33)	31% (65)	32% (49)	.4 (32)	6% (52)	2.1 (53)
ND Defense	12	56% (132)	36% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.09 (8)	1.6 (93)	36% (9)	26% (24)	.17 (17)	9% (3)	2.1 (84)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	56% (133)	40% (55)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (75)	.3 (90)	1.7 (117)	35% (21)	31% (91)	.38 (111)	7% (46)	2.1 (83)
ND Offense	12	45% (95)	51% (6)	18.1	26.8	255.1	9.5	14.1	25 (33)	6 (34)	.45 (10)	1.7 (25)	29% (37)	44% (2)	.65 (3)	5% (35)	2 (65)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 4.70 #52
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.37 #36
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.67 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9 #61
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.70 Notre Dame: 29.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 2.9 Notre Dame: 24.3

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 29.015 #3
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 26.69 #6
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.21 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1060.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3 #5
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #7
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 43
NC State 18

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 37
NC State 30

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 39
NC State 22

Total Points: 61

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Notre Dame	36	NC State	7	Notre Dame -23.5	Notre Dame	59.5	Under
2023	09/09	NC State	24	Notre Dame	45	Notre Dame -7	Notre Dame	49.5	Over
2017	10/28	Notre Dame	35	NC State	14	Notre Dame -7	Notre Dame	61.0	Under
2016	10/08	NC State	10	Notre Dame	3	Notre Dame -2.5	NC State	56.5	Under
2002	01/01	Notre Dame	6	NC State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	3	3	1 Overs
NC State	2	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2

(#52) NCST at (#3) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	ND
Net PPPPPP	#54	#2
Power RatePwr	#52	#3
SP+SP+	#61	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#5
OffenseOff	#52	#5
DefenseDef	#89	#5
Spec TeamsST	#91	#23
TalentTal	#43	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#39	#8

NC State Notes(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report

Notre Dame Notes(11/16) Killed Pitt, 10-2 finish likely. Get healthy for CFP?
(11/4) Huge issues at K, missed 2 XP, short FG vs BC
(10/20) OG Billy Schrauth out until at least Pitt/Cuse (3 OL)
(10/18) 300 yds rush vs USC, Pass Def torched, huge Win
(10/16) DL G Rubio out vs SC (best DT) & L Thomas (depth)
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
Notre Dame Injury Report

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	#29	#1
Perf GradePerf	#52	#5
SuccessSuc	#50	#13
ExplosiveExp	#13	#85
PPAPPA	#20	#12
PowerPwr	#36	#2
SP+SP+	#47	#11
Pts POPPO	#8	#6
HavocHav	#74	#19

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#61	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#20
Run ExplRExp	#19	#32
PPAExp	#33	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#39
Stuff RateStuff	#112	#74
TackleTak	-	#9

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#93
PPAExp	#25	#8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#46	#25
F7 HavocF7	#98	#77
DB HavocDB	#52	#3

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	#86	#24
Perf GradePerf	#5	#89
SuccessSuc	#10	#39
ExplosiveExp	#3	#134
PPAPPA	#4	#102
PowerPwr	#6	#66
SP+SP+	#7	#73
Pts POPPO	#6	#72
HavocHav	#36	#86

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#5	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#19
Run ExplRExp	#8	#124
PPAExp	#11	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#65
TackleTak	-	#74

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#55
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#117
PPAExp	#10	#90
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#65
F7 HavocF7	#36	#109
DB HavocDB	#35	#46

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Notre Dame -23.5 (59.5)
Notre Dame won vs NC State this year (36-7)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat NC State in 2023 (45-24)

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	273	397	69%	3105	25	9	7.8
Lex Thomas	2	7	29%	18	0	0	2.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	160	939	6	5.9	65
Jayden Scott	106	595	4	5.6	69
CJ Bailey	89	215	6	2.4	30
Will Wilson	43	146	10	3.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terrell Anderson	39	629	5	16.1	75
Justin Joly	49	489	7	10.0	59
Wesley Grimes	31	458	3	14.8	48
Noah Rogers	31	413	2	13.3	48

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Fordham	143	10	4	4	3
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)	80	4	1	6	2
Asaad Brown Jr.	64	0	0	0	2
Cian Slone (Tr)	62	7	2	16	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tra Thomas (Tr)	24	6	4	5	0
Caden Fordham	143	10	4	4	3
Travali Price	22	5	4	4	1
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)	41	8	3	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devon Marshall	50	0	1	15
Brian Nelson II (Tr)	29	1	0	6
Jackson Vick	45	2	0	6

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
C.J. Carr	195	293	67%	2741	24	6	9.4
Kenny Minchey	20	26	77%	196	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	199	1372	18	6.9	94
Jadarian Price	113	674	11	6.0	58
Aneyas Williams	24	224	5	9.3	54
Kenny Minchey	7	84	1	12.0	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Faison	49	640	4	13.1	54
Malachi Fields (Tr)	36	630	5	17.5	66
Eli Raridon	32	482	0	15.1	65
Will Pauling (Tr)	26	381	6	14.7	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5
Jaiden Ausberry	51	4	2	5	0
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boubacar Traore	37	10	7	8	0
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2
Jaylen Sneed	35	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Gray	18	1	0	0	10
Leonard Moore	31	0	0	0	7
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5