NC State at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting IrishNotre Dame logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, IN

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 4)
ND 2nd straight Home Game
ND is playing their 5th straight game
NCST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -22.5   (SP+ ND -20)
Projected Score: NCST: 17 - ND: 39 (55)
ND Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
NCST Travel: 574 miles
Fighting Irish (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (34 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#1)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.50.0
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-8.5
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-10.5
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+2
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-3
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-29.5
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+22.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+1
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State-1
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Notre Dame at Miami-2.054.0
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Notre Dame vs Texas A&M-6
Sat 9/20 Notre Dame vs Purdue-40.5
Sat 9/27 Notre Dame at Arkansas-14
Sat 10/4 Notre Dame vs Boise State-19
Sat 10/11 Notre Dame vs NC State-22.5
Sat 10/18 Notre Dame vs USC-17
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Notre Dame at Boston College-21
Sat 11/8 Notre Dame vs Navy-33
Sat 11/15 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh-18.5
Sat 11/22 Notre Dame vs Syracuse-23
Sat 11/29 Notre Dame at Stanford-29

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)28.544% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)30.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)36.147% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)15.543% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ND0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1328.530.845.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25
ND Defense1615.51236.4%2.751.8 - - - - - 51%48%43%29%19%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1330.235.540.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
ND Offense1636.133.747%4.80.8173411811606.353%47%47%47%11%.32

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Notre Dame1624:3416.839%76%4.842.40.81.842.1533.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)
ND Defense1651% (78)43% (73) - - - - .1 (58)2.9 (49)67% (29)10% (57)0.85 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
ND Offense1653% (46)47% (26)28.6181.36.342 (3).36 (2)3.31 (24)73% (71)8% (26)1.3 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)
ND Defense1648% (59)29% (1) - - - - - - 18 (4)-.15 (1)1.6 (67)34% (29)27% (24).1 (2)8% (6)1.6 (2)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
ND Offense1647% (89)47% (21)14.922.4159.97.210.820 (58)6 (10).29 (50)1.3 (133)28% (19)32% (58).45 (22)3% (6)2.1 (50)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.01 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
NC State's Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 823.53
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 7.01   Notre Dame: 28.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Notre Dame: 24.9




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 28.25 #10
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 26.16 #10
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -0.44 #6
2025 Talent Rating: 1072.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.9 #6
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.3 #9
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.4 #8

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 811
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13


NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 39
NC State 17

Projected Total Points: 55
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.7
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 12

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09NC State24Notre Dame45Notre DameNotre Dame -7Notre Dame49.5Over
201710/28Notre Dame35NC State14Notre DameNotre Dame -7Notre Dame61.0Under
201610/08NC State10Notre Dame3NC StateNotre Dame -2.5NC State56.5Under
200201/01Notre Dame6NC State28NC State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame221 Overs
NC State212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1
Road Teams2 - 21 - 21 - 10 - 1

(#46) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.01 #46
Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54
Talent Rating: 814.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


NC State Notes
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
(5/29) OL returns 2/5, 3 portals. OTs decent, IOL ?
(5/29) Def was bad LY, 13 portal adds, lots of ??
(3/19) RB Smoothers back, depth/playmakers?
(3/19) DC Eliot journeyman with ? success
NC State     Ratings Matchup     Notre Dame
Power #46
#10
Off #41
#10
Def #48
#6
Talent #42
#6
SP+ #42
#6
SP+ Off #36
#9
SP+ Def #54
#8

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat NC State in 2023 (45-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | ND
Depth Chart: NCST | ND
Rosters: NCST | ND
(#10) Notre Dame Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 28.25 #10
Offense Rating: 26.16 #10
Defense Rating: -0.44 #6
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.9 #6
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.4 #8
Talent Rating: 1072.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #8
Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Great Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Great Pass Def Success 29%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Notre Dame Notes
(5/23) Secondary top 5 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(4/4) CB Moore (So)/LB Bowen (Jr) top 10 via PFF
(3/21) New DC Ash big shoes to fill (Golden-NFL)
(3/18) QB1? Angeli, Carr, Minchey
(3/18) RBs Love/Price/Williams best in CFB?
(3/18) WR, Greathouse CFP star, Faison shifty
(3/18) WR, can portals Fields/Pauling be weapons?
(3/18) OL loaded. Health, time to gel a concern.
(3/18) Def great, needs new leaders w/ new DC
(1/18) Freeman a rising star, ext'd to 2030


  
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey19630265%241217108.0
Lex Thomas5863%65118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers8957166.453
CJ Bailey9927952.831
Lex Thomas1909.09
Coleson Fields3802.73
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Joly43661415.440
Noah Rogers35478113.775
Wesley Grimes24319113.330
Daylan Smothers19263213.872

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown9593131
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013
Caden Fordham504162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cian Slone (Tr)4910850
Travali Price379430
Sean Brown9593131
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)419310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013

Notre Dame's OC Mike Denbrock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malachi Fields (Tr)2367%510017.0
Tyler Buchner11100%230023.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1631124176.998
Jadarian Price12074676.270
Aneyas Williams3421926.458
Kedren Young2111615.512
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Fields (Tr)55808514.745
Jaden Greathouse42592414.154
Will Pauling (Tr)4240739.728
Jordan Faison30356111.944

View Notre Dame's Full Roster
Notre Dame's DC Chris Ash
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen784122
Adon Shuler593025
Jaiden Ausberry566121
Jaylen Sneed516320
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Dawson (Tr)197400
Donovan Hinish344441
Junior Tuihalamaka326331
Boubacar Traore126320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leonard Moore4820111
Christian Gray353009
DeVonta Smith (Tr)301015