Nevada at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Western Kentucky HilltoppersWestern Kentucky logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -8.5 (54.5) (-325)  Open: -12.5
Western Kentucky 31 - Nevada: 16

 
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
WKU coming off BYE
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -20.5  (SP+ WKU -15)

Projected Score: NEV: 17 - WKU: 37 (54)
WKU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
NEV Travel: 1808 miles, 2 hrs behind
Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.551.5W 42 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+24.552.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.556.5L 34 - 37ON
Tue 12/23 Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (88)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#93 (.19)44% (92)27.544% (84)43% (93)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
WKU#74 (.17)43% (58)29.545% (52)2.97 (62)12342% (64)2524.21 (30)#42 (.11)37% (19)22.839% (26)36% (18)2.72 (11)55.61.41
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1217.615.536.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02
WKU Defense1322.818.837%2.721 - - - - - 46%52%39%36%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1227.529.843.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
WKU Offense1329.53543.2%4.211.4203741232524.242%57%45%42%15%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Western Kentucky1327:102045%33%5.655.61.414.91.2228.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (89)2.83 (88)72% (68)11% (115)1.04 (38)
WKU Defense1346% (22)39% (26) - - - - .09 (61)2.79 (52)55% (3)9% (94)1.13 (130)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1250% (68)44% (84) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (94)1.05 (111)
WKU Offense1342% (125)45% (52)29.2122.74.220 (78).09 (81)2.97 (62)81% (12)9% (49)0.92 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (123)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (84)1.6 (136)
WKU Defense1352% (109)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).16 (33)1.5 (62)34% (32)27% (31).23 (43)7% (17)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (70)43% (93) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (40)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (41).26 (57)6% (87)1.8 (17)
WKU Offense1357% (12)42% (64)23.335251.67.210.821 (42)11 (60).24 (72)1.5 (89)33% (100)34% (24).36 (45)6% (89)1.9 (104)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -17.96  #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 17.76  #124
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1  #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -17.96   Western Kentucky: 4.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -14.1   Western Kentucky: 0.4




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 4.47  #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30  #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 37
Nevada 17


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 39
Nevada 16

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Western Kentucky 31
Nevada 19

Total Points: 50
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Kentucky31Nevada16Western Kentucky -8.5Western Kentucky54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky110 Overs
Nevada001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#132) NEV at (#57) WKU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVWKU
Power RatePwr #132 #57
SP+SP+ #118 #70
Perf GradeGrade #97 #55
OffenseOff #112 #64
DefenseDef #45 #54
Spec TeamsST #119 #28
TalentTal #119 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Perf GradePerf #112 #54
SuccessSuc #124 #19
ExplosiveExp #102 #116
PPAPPA #129 #42
PowerPwr #131 #39
SP+SP+ #133 #80
Pts POPPO #133 #11
HavocHav #107 #58
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #126 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #26
Run ExplRExp #38 #130
PPAExp #89 #61
Run BlockR Blk #24 -
OL YdsOLY #88 #52
Stuff RateStuff #80 #31
TackleTak -  #118
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #131 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #18
Pass ExplPExl #123 #62
PPAExp #135 #33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #77 #70
F7 HavocF7 #115 #94
DB HavocDB #84 #17
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatWKU OffNEV Def
Perf GradePerf #64 #45
SuccessSuc #58 #92
ExplosiveExp #70 #38
PPAPPA #74 #93
PowerPwr #77 #124
SP+SP+ #60 #78
Pts POPPO #30 #112
HavocHav #61 #100
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #74 #54
Run SuccessRSuc #52 #84
Run ExplRExp #84 #111
PPAExp #81 #126
Run BlockR Blk #91 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #104
Stuff RateStuff #99 #111
TackleTak -  #68
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatWKU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #47 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #93
Pass ExplPExl #89 #2
PPAExp #72 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #34 #14
F7 HavocF7 #49 #94
DB HavocDB #89 #87
Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 85° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Western Kentucky -8.5 (54.5)
Western Kentucky won vs Nevada this year (31-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Myles Williams (Tr)31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004

WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)18327367%20621267.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
George Hart III7030054.336
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)55888616.155
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Moussa Barry34488114.448
Noah Meyers32357311.262

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)1067232
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Anthony Brackenridge745123
Dave Herard583004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)204300
Koron Hayward194321
Jalen Emery (Tr)183213
Harper Holloman396264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nazir Ward353106
Jai Eugene Jr.212105
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005