Nevada at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Western Kentucky HilltoppersWestern Kentucky logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -8.5 (54.5) (-325)  Open: -12.5
Western Kentucky 31 - Nevada: 16

 
Wolf Pack (1 - 7) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 14 - 28 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.1 - 9.9 (#129)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
WKU coming off BYE
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -19  (SP+ WKU -14)

Projected Score: NEV: 17 - WKU: 36 (53)
WKU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
NEV Travel: 1808 miles, 2 hrs behind
Hilltoppers (7 - 2) (7 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (34 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 3.2 (#26)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+9.552.5
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+6
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+14
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+9

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-20.5
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+17.5
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#134 (-.01)35% (130)1435% (129)2.63 (99)14036% (124)1552.28 (135)#84 (.17)44% (102)27.545% (101)43% (92)4.11 (101)432.61
WKU#78 (.16)44% (52)30.144% (70)2.5 (106)12244% (48)2884.12 (43)#44 (.11)37% (17)22.838% (28)35% (18)2.85 (12)66.91.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense81416.535.4%2.282.6172951401554.255%44%35%36%18%-.01
WKU Defense922.817.436.6%2.851.1 - - - - - 47%51%38%35%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense827.530.344.3%4.111 - - - - - 53%47%45%43%14%.17
WKU Offense930.133.644.1%4.121.4224101222883.941%59%44%44%15%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada828:5416.634%56%5432.615.62.3130.7
Western Kentucky929:3821.847%36%6.466.91.41.15.21228
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense855% (30)35% (129)33.4139.94.24 (132).06 (95)2.63 (99)72% (70)11% (106)1.09 (21)
WKU Defense947% (37)38% (28) - - - - .09 (75)2.7 (65)61% (18)8% (107)1.14 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense853% (101)45% (101) - - - - .16 (110)1.75 (3)70% (54)10% (74)0.99 (83)
WKU Offense941% (124)44% (70)31.31223.913 (78)-.02 (123)2.5 (106)80% (16)9% (54)0.86 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense844% (107)36% (124)15.326.6155.45.810.25 (121)15 (134)-.08 (136)1.4 (100)36% (129)25% (121)-.09 (136)7% (101)1.6 (135)
WKU Defense951% (99)35% (18) - - - - - - 7 (55).15 (36)1.4 (41)35% (23)24% (16).15 (19)7% (27)1.9 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense847% (42)43% (92) - - - - - - 5 (75).18 (47)1.3 (3)30% (90)25% (22).21 (38)5% (116)1.8 (25)
WKU Offense959% (9)44% (48)26.238.7287.87.41118 (42)7 (60).29 (56)1.5 (75)32% (86)34% (46).29 (79)6% (66)1.9 (95)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.80  #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 16.60  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 2.1 - 9.9
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.7  #123
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.6  #134
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -16.80   Western Kentucky: 2.8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.7   Western Kentucky: -1.4




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 2.8  #66
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 6.48  #86
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 4.48  #48
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.8 - 3.2
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4  #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #80
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #69

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 36
Nevada 17


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 38
Nevada 18

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Western Kentucky 31
Nevada 18

Total Points: 49
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 30.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.6
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.4

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Kentucky31Nevada16Western Kentucky -8.5Western Kentucky54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky110 Overs
Nevada001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#132) NEV at (#66) WKU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVWKU
Power RatePwr #132 #66
SP+SP+ #123 #72
Perf GradeGrade #110 #62
OffenseOff #123 #64
DefenseDef #72 #62
Spec TeamsST #112 #40
TalentTal #119 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Nevada Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
Nevada Injury Report
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Perf GradePerf #123 #62
SuccessSuc #130 #17
ExplosiveExp #59 #104
PPAPPA #134 #44
PowerPwr #131 #48
SP+SP+ #134 #69
Pts POPPO #135 #12
HavocHav #102 #77
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #130 #89
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #28
Run ExplRExp #21 #125
PPAExp #95 #75
Run BlockR Blk #42 -
OL YdsOLY #99 #65
Stuff RateStuff #120 #25
TackleTak -  #112
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #131 #45
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #18
Pass ExplPExl #100 #41
PPAExp #136 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #75 #63
F7 HavocF7 #106 #107
DB HavocDB #101 #27
Western Kentucky on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatWKU OffNEV Def
Perf GradePerf #64 #72
SuccessSuc #52 #102
ExplosiveExp #64 #11
PPAPPA #78 #84
PowerPwr #86 #118
SP+SP+ #80 #91
Pts POPPO #43 #101
HavocHav #58 #103
Western Kentucky Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
WKU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #78 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #101
Run ExplRExp #113 #83
PPAExp #123 #110
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #106 #3
Stuff RateStuff #118 #116
TackleTak -  #80
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatWKU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #58 #93
Pass SuccessPSuc #48 #92
Pass ExplPExl #75 #3
PPAExp #56 #47
Pass Block/RushP Blk #47 #6
F7 HavocF7 #54 #74
DB HavocDB #66 #116
Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Western Kentucky -8.5 (54.5)
Western Kentucky won vs Nevada this year (31-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones6610662%644366.1
Chubba Purdy417853%497186.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur7732924.327
Herschel Turner (Tr)6129704.964
Chubba Purdy6429524.630
Ky Woods128807.328
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter22228010.444
Marcus Bellon18202111.243
Jordan Brown (Tr)14170012.128
Dakota Thomas (Tr)1514819.924

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera6915720
Stone Combs483100
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)423101
A.J. Odums320004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera6915720
Jonathan Maldonado279503
Nelson Ropati152200
Nahji Logan (Tr)81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)280005
A.J. Odums320004
Jonathan Maldonado279503

WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)17125467%18631257.3
Rodney Tisdale Jr.648873%688627.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish6832504.822
La'Vell Wright (Tr)5024364.924
George Hart III5321244.036
Rodney Tisdale Jr.2711304.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)35568516.255
K.D. Hutchinson43490311.478
Moussa Barry24318113.348
Noah Meyers21242111.539

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)583021
Anthony Brackenridge443011
Dave Herard401001
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)153200
Harper Holloman275244
Mackavelli Malotumau (Tr)276130
Jayden Gray (Tr)112130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harper Holloman275244
Dylan Flowers281004
Kent Robinson100013