BYU at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
BYU logo   BYU Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincinnati logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
BYU -2.5 (56.5) (-142)  Open: -3.5
BYU 26 - Cincinnati: 14  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 2.3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
CIN 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: BYU -2  (SP+ BYU -11.5)

Projected Score: BYU: 28 - CIN: 26 (55)
BYU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 1439 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bearcats (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+4.049.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+2.548.5W 41 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13.550.5L 7 - 29UN
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-3.051.5W 44 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati-2.556.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-17.546.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 12/6 BYU vs Texas Tech+12.550.5L 7 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 BYU vs Georgia Tech-3.555.0W 25 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+7.557.5L 13 - 35UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)31.447% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)19.146% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)30.344% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)25.646% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1331.427.544.7%3.731.4203631482164.752%48%47%43%16%.22
CIN Defense1225.619.642.2%3.511.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%39%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1319.121.841.4%3.792.1 - - - - - 51%49%46%37%17%.13
CIN Offense1230.334.444.7%3.331.5224221852375.250%50%44%45%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1328:3220.535%75%4.4371.42.14.51.2531.7
Cincinnati1231:4222.142%55%5.344.41.51.25.41.6026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1352% (62)47% (30)31.6147.74.718 (78).2 (36)3.23 (37)75% (60)9% (44)0.99 (56)
CIN Defense1251% (75)46% (94) - - - - .14 (77)3.19 (98)73% (63)11% (51)0.95 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1351% (70)46% (99) - - - - .14 (78)2.8 (36)72% (59)9% (86)0.97 (61)
CIN Offense1250% (72)44% (67)35.31855.219 (73).15 (59)3.03 (69)71% (84)11% (93)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1348% (74)43% (59)15.627.3215.87.913.820 (58)11 (72).27 (60)1.7 (33)32% (83)33% (49).34 (65)7% (101)2 (96)
CIN Defense1249% (63)39% (43) - - - - - - 5 (117).23 (71)1.7 (108)31% (93)31% (79).34 (86)5% (87)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1349% (65)37% (28) - - - - - - 20 (2).12 (21)1.5 (24)31% (83)31% (73).27 (52)8% (11)2 (49)
CIN Offense1250% (63)45% (32)2132.9236.57.211.318 (68)7 (26).26 (63)1.4 (121)30% (41)36% (20).5 (10)5% (33)2.1 (67)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 13.55  #28
BYU's Offense Rating: 18.12  #37
BYU's Defense Rating: 4.57  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 2.3
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #18
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #24
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 13.55   Cincinnati: 12.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 15.9   Cincinnati: 4.5




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 12.92  #17
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.32  #19
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.98  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #56
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #67

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 28
Cincinnati 26


Projected Total Points: 55
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Cincinnati14BYU26BYU -2.5BYU56.5Under
202309/29BYU35Cincinnati27BYU -1BYU47.5Over
201611/05Cincinnati3BYU20BYU -10BYU54.0Under
201510/16BYU38Cincinnati24BYU -7BYU68.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati001 Overs
BYU443 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 22 - 22 - 00 - 2
Road Teams2 - 22 - 22 - 00 - 2

(#28) BYU at (#17) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUCIN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #28 #17
SP+SP+ #18 #56
Perf GradeGrade #29 #34
OffenseOff #26 #20
DefenseDef #56 #78
Spec TeamsST #2 #66
TalentTal #79 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #79
BYU Notes
(11/16) Have taken advantage of bad B12 mids. Def good
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffCIN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #26 #78
SuccessSuc #44 #76
ExplosiveExp #48 #75
PPAPPA #51 #75
PowerPwr #37 #28
SP+SP+ #24 #67
Pts POPPO #88 #40
HavocHav #64 #67
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #27 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #94
Run ExplRExp #56 #49
PPAExp #36 #77
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #37 #98
Stuff RateStuff #89 #56
TackleTak -  #35
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #62 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #43
Pass ExplPExl #33 #108
PPAExp #60 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #40 #130
F7 HavocF7 #44 #51
DB HavocDB #101 #87
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffBYU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #20 #56
SuccessSuc #43 #65
ExplosiveExp #79 #34
PPAPPA #59 #41
PowerPwr #19 #22
SP+SP+ #50 #22
Pts POPPO #118 #68
HavocHav #69 #49
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #30 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #99
Run ExplRExp #34 #61
PPAExp #59 #78
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #36
Stuff RateStuff #105 #76
TackleTak -  #102
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #12 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #28
Pass ExplPExl #121 #24
PPAExp #63 #21
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #90
F7 HavocF7 #93 #86
DB HavocDB #33 #11
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
BYU 2.5 (56.5)
BYU won at Cincinnati this year (26-14)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat Cincinnati last year (26-14)
BYU beat Cincinnati in 2023 (35-27)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)25138765%30331577.8
Parker Kingston1617%22003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2361305125.549
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)147527113.622
Parker Kingston2612334.720
Jovesa Damuni1911115.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Kingston66924514.075
Chase Roberts54802614.985
Carsen Ryan (Tr)45620313.843
LJ Martin3625507.126

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala798114
Tanner Wall641000
Isaiah Glasker639391
Jack Kelly52141071
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly52141071
Isaiah Glasker639391
Bodie Schoonover335333
Keanu Tanuvasa (Tr)225233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Johnson422107
Logan Lutui505045
Therrian Alexander313125

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg142167%134216.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey2719417.236
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)506601213.288
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jonathan Thompson679120
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt266400
Jack Dingle513230
Montay Weedon273200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Daniel James150004