BYU at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
BYU -2.5 (56.5) (-142) Open: -3.5
BYU 26 - Cincinnati: 14 (Big 12)

Cougars (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 2.3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

CIN 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: BYU -4 (SP+ BYU -12)
Projected Score: BYU: 30 - CIN: 26 (55)
BYU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 1439 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bearcats (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BYU Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

BYU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	BYU vs Portland State	-43.5	61.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/6	BYU vs Stanford	-20.5	44.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	BYU at East Carolina	-6.5	49.5	W 34 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/27	BYU at Colorado	-6.5	48.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 10/3	BYU vs West Virginia	-19.5	46.5	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/11	BYU at Arizona	-2.5	46.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/18	BYU vs Utah	+4.0	49.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/25	BYU at Iowa State	+2.5	48.5	W 41 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	BYU at Texas Tech	+13.5	50.5	L 7 - 29	U	N
Sat 11/15	BYU vs TCU	-3.0	51.5	W 44 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/22	BYU at Cincinnati	-2.5	56.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/29	BYU vs UCF	-17.5	46.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/6	BYU vs Texas Tech	+12.5	50.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/27	BYU vs Georgia Tech	-3.5	55.0	W 25 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Cincinnati vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Cincinnati vs Bowling Green	-21.5	46.5	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/13	Cincinnati vs Northwestern State	-48.5	55.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Cincinnati at Kansas	+5.5	55.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-1.5	55.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Cincinnati vs UCF	-10.0	55.5	W 20 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/18	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	-23.5	57.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-3.5	68.5	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Cincinnati at Utah	+11.5	57.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Cincinnati vs Arizona	-6.5	56.5	L 24 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/22	Cincinnati vs BYU	+2.5	56.5	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/29	Cincinnati at TCU	+3.0	58.5	L 23 - 45	O	N
Fri 1/2	Cincinnati vs Navy	+4.0	54.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BYU	#36 (.22)	46% (33)	31.4	47% (33)	3 (56)	172	44% (48)	198	4.03 (39)	#31 (.09)	39% (38)	19.1	39% (30)	41% (61)	3.29 (37)	41.9	1	1.6
CIN	#11 (.32)	48% (16)	31.8	51% (8)	3.6 (1)	180	47% (24)	241	4.66 (12)	#105 (.21)	45% (110)	24.8	46% (114)	43% (86)	3.81 (84)	64.2	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BYU	#51 (.22)	45% (44)		47% (30)	3.23 (37)	148	43% (59)	216	3.73 (88)	#41 (.13)	41% (65)		46% (99)	37% (28)	3.79 (68)	37	1.4	2.1
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BYU Offense	14	31.4	27.5	45.5%	4.03	1	20	370	172	198	4.8	53%	45%	47%	44%	14%	.22
CIN Defense	12	24.8	19.6	44.7%	3.81	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	46%	43%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BYU Defense	14	19.1	21.8	39.1%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	39%	41%	16%	.09
CIN Offense	12	31.8	34.4	48.1%	4.66	1	20	422	180	241	6	48%	50%	51%	47%	12%	.32

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
BYU	14	30:28	20	41%	60%	5.1	41.9	1	1.6	5.1	2.1	4	28.8
Cincinnati	12	24:06	20.3	40%	73%	6.9	64.2	1	0.8	4.5	1.8	1	29.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BYU Offense	14	53% (37)	47% (33)	36	172	4.8	31 (16)	.2 (30)	3 (56)	82% (7)	8% (27)	0.95 (77)
CIN Defense	12	52% (101)	46% (114)	-	-	-	-	.17 (107)	3.26 (124)	77% (111)	8% (113)	0.93 (54)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BYU Defense	14	47% (35)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.05 (39)	2.76 (49)	75% (98)	10% (68)	0.97 (71)
CIN Offense	12	48% (81)	51% (8)	30.3	180.4	6	20 (40)	.26 (9)	3.6 (1)	76% (43)	6% (6)	1.01 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BYU Offense	14	45% (101)	44% (48)	16.4	26	197.9	7.6	12.1	14 (86)	6 (20)	.28 (53)	1.5 (93)	30% (42)	30% (76)	.34 (54)	6% (68)	2.1 (47)
CIN Defense	12	47% (48)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	2 (132)	.26 (76)	1.5 (36)	29% (113)	33% (108)	.34 (93)	5% (122)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BYU Defense	14	52% (104)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (12)	.18 (41)	1.5 (25)	34% (35)	26% (22)	.15 (14)	6% (54)	1.9 (24)
CIN Offense	12	50% (64)	47% (24)	17.7	28.6	241.3	8.4	13.7	28 (6)	5 (3)	.46 (11)	1.6 (41)	29% (29)	34% (27)	.45 (19)	6% (54)	2.2 (22)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 18.53 #21
BYU's Offense Rating: 14.49 #43
BYU's Defense Rating: -4.04 #19
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 2.3
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.2 #14
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #20
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #20

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 18.53 Cincinnati: 14.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 18.2 Cincinnati: 6.3

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 14.4 #26
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 23.54 #11
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 6.04 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.3 #49
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #39
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #64

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
BYU 30
Cincinnati 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Cincinnati 29
BYU 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 27
BYU 26

Total Points: 53

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Cincinnati	14	BYU	26	BYU -2.5	BYU	56.5	Under
2023	09/29	BYU	35	Cincinnati	27	BYU -1	BYU	47.5	Over
2016	11/05	Cincinnati	3	BYU	20	BYU -10	BYU	54.0	Under
2015	10/16	BYU	38	Cincinnati	24	BYU -7	BYU	68.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	0	0	1 Overs
BYU	4	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	2 - 2	2 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 2	2 - 0	0 - 2

(#21) BYU at (#26) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BYU	CIN
Power RatePwr	#21	#26
SP+SP+	#14	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#31
OffenseOff	#24	#12
DefenseDef	#47	#77
Spec TeamsST	#4	#88
TalentTal	#79	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#79

BYU Notes(11/16) Have taken advantage of bad B12 mids. Def good
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report

Cincinnati Notes(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report

BYU on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BYU Off	CIN Def
Perf GradePerf	#24	#77
SuccessSuc	#33	#110
ExplosiveExp	#107	#29
PPAPPA	#36	#105
PowerPwr	#43	#52
SP+SP+	#20	#64
Pts POPPO	#39	#84
HavocHav	#41	#121

BYU Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BYU Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#43	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#114
Run ExplRExp	#77	#54
PPAExp	#30	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#121
TackleTak	-	#44

BYU Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BYU Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#93	#36
PPAExp	#53	#76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#39	#133
F7 HavocF7	#27	#113
DB HavocDB	#68	#122

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	BYU Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#47
SuccessSuc	#16	#38
ExplosiveExp	#44	#54
PPAPPA	#11	#31
PowerPwr	#11	#19
SP+SP+	#39	#20
Pts POPPO	#12	#37
HavocHav	#14	#63

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	BYU Def
Run GameRun	#20	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#30
Run ExplRExp	#52	#71
PPAExp	#9	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#49
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#36
TackleTak	-	#99

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	BYU Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#61
Pass ExplPExl	#41	#25
PPAExp	#11	#41
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#60	#74
F7 HavocF7	#6	#68
DB HavocDB	#54	#54

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 37°

Rematch from Week 13
BYU 2.5 (56.5)
BYU won at Cincinnati this year (26-14)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat Cincinnati in 2023 (35-27)

BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)	251	387	65%	3033	15	7	7.8
Parker Kingston	1	6	17%	22	0	0	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
LJ Martin	236	1305	12	5.5	49
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)	147	527	11	3.6	22
Parker Kingston	26	123	3	4.7	20
Jovesa Damuni	19	111	1	5.8	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Parker Kingston	66	924	5	14.0	75
Chase Roberts	54	802	6	14.9	85
Carsen Ryan (Tr)	45	620	3	13.8	43
LJ Martin	36	255	0	7.1	26

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Faletau Satuala	79	8	1	1	4
Tanner Wall	64	1	0	0	0
Isaiah Glasker	63	9	3	9	1
Jack Kelly	52	14	10	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Kelly	52	14	10	7	1
Isaiah Glasker	63	9	3	9	1
Bodie Schoonover	33	5	3	3	3
Anisi Purcell (Tr)	11	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Johnson	42	2	1	0	7
Logan Lutui	50	5	0	4	5
Therrian Alexander	31	3	1	2	5

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby	206	335	62%	2786	26	5	8.3
Brady Lichtenberg	4	6	67%	56	1	0	9.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)	120	709	4	5.9	54
Brendan Sorsby	100	580	9	5.8	41
Evan Pryor	76	522	3	6.9	46
Manny Covey	16	116	1	7.3	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)	48	651	11	13.6	88
Caleb Goodie (Tr)	29	484	2	16.7	82
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)	32	478	6	14.9	40
Joe Royer	29	416	4	14.3	73

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	95	4	4	2	3
Trevon Gola-Callard	67	4	0	0	3
Jonathan Thompson	59	8	1	2	0
Christian Harrison (Tr)	55	3	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	95	4	4	2	3
Jalen Hunt	24	6	4	0	0
Jack Dingle	45	3	2	3	0
Montay Weedon	24	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Christian Harrison (Tr)	55	3	7
Logan Wilson	33	2	6
Jiquan Sanks	45	2	4