BYU at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview
BYU logo BYU Cougars at Arizona WildcatsArizona logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
BYU -2.5 (46.5) (-142)  Open: -3.0
BYU 33 - Arizona: 27  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 2.3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Rain Predicted
ARIZ 2nd straight Home Game
BYU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: BYU -3.5  (SP+ BYU -4)

Projected Score: BYU: 26 - ARIZ: 22 (48)
BYU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 556 miles
Wildcats (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (35 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
 
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+4.049.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+2.548.5W 41 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13.550.5L 7 - 29UN
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-3.051.5W 44 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati-2.556.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-17.546.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 12/6 BYU vs Texas Tech+12.550.5L 7 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 BYU vs Georgia Tech-3.555.0W 25 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-5.556.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+6.556.5W 30 - 24UY
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-6.561.5W 41 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State-2.048.5W 23 - 7UY
Fri 1/2 Arizona vs SMU+2.555.5L 19 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)31.447% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)19.146% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)31.537% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)19.345% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1331.427.544.7%3.731.4203631482164.752%48%47%43%16%.22
ARIZ Defense1219.315.644.6%4.551.2 - - - - - 51%48%45%44%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1319.121.841.4%3.792.1 - - - - - 51%49%46%37%17%.13
ARIZ Offense1231.534.938.5%3.531.7193551072483.939%61%37%40%16%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1328:3220.535%75%4.4371.42.14.51.2531.7
Arizona1229:4518.543%42%6.557.61.71.24.81.7027.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1352% (62)47% (30)31.6147.74.718 (78).2 (36)3.23 (37)75% (60)9% (44)0.99 (56)
ARIZ Defense1251% (73)45% (90) - - - - .18 (100)3.32 (115)78% (99)9% (94)1.08 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1351% (70)46% (99) - - - - .14 (78)2.8 (36)72% (59)9% (86)0.97 (61)
ARIZ Offense1239% (127)37% (126)27.4106.73.911 (116).03 (112)2.64 (123)55% (134)9% (59)1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1348% (74)43% (59)15.627.3215.87.913.820 (58)11 (72).27 (60)1.7 (33)32% (83)33% (49).34 (65)7% (101)2 (96)
ARIZ Defense1248% (61)44% (109) - - - - - - 6 (109).31 (103)1.6 (66)31% (88)32% (95).39 (101)5% (93)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1349% (65)37% (28) - - - - - - 20 (2).12 (21)1.5 (24)31% (83)31% (73).27 (52)8% (11)2 (49)
ARIZ Offense1261% (8)40% (91)21.836.4247.96.811.418 (68)13 (103).22 (88)1.6 (44)36% (124)31% (70).33 (71)6% (88)2.1 (35)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 13.55  #28
BYU's Offense Rating: 18.12  #37
BYU's Defense Rating: 4.57  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 2.3
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #18
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #24
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 13.55   Arizona: 10.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 15.9   Arizona: 12.0




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.995  #50
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.18  #45
Arizona's Defense Rating: 12.19  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.0  #28
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #29
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 26
Arizona 22


Projected Total Points: 48
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.9
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Arizona27BYU33BYU -2.5BYU46.5Over
202410/12BYU41Arizona19BYU -3BYU48.5Over
202109/04Arizona16BYU24BYU -13.5Arizona54.0Under
201809/01Arizona23BYU28Arizona -10BYU60.5Under
201609/03Arizona16BYU18Arizona -2.5BYU63.5Under
200812/20Arizona31BYU21
200709/01BYU20Arizona7
200609/02Arizona16BYU13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona212 Overs
BYU643 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 42 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams4 - 43 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#28) BYU at (#50) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUARIZ
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #28 #50
SP+SP+ #18 #28
Perf GradeGrade #29 #31
OffenseOff #26 #55
DefenseDef #56 #13
Spec TeamsST #2 #88
TalentTal #79 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #65
BYU Notes
(11/16) Have taken advantage of bad B12 mids. Def good
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report
Arizona Notes
(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffARIZ Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #26 #13
SuccessSuc #44 #100
ExplosiveExp #48 #96
PPAPPA #51 #109
PowerPwr #37 #56
SP+SP+ #24 #25
Pts POPPO #88 #125
HavocHav #64 #99
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #27 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #90
Run ExplRExp #56 #109
PPAExp #36 #100
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #37 #115
Stuff RateStuff #89 #102
TackleTak -  #47
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #62 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #109
Pass ExplPExl #33 #66
PPAExp #60 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #40 #111
F7 HavocF7 #44 #94
DB HavocDB #101 #93
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffBYU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #55 #56
SuccessSuc #117 #65
ExplosiveExp #3 #34
PPAPPA #93 #41
PowerPwr #45 #22
SP+SP+ #29 #22
Pts POPPO #101 #68
HavocHav #65 #49
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #73 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #126 #99
Run ExplRExp #6 #61
PPAExp #112 #78
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #36
Stuff RateStuff #133 #76
TackleTak -  #102
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #28 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #28
Pass ExplPExl #44 #24
PPAExp #88 #21
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #90
F7 HavocF7 #59 #86
DB HavocDB #88 #11
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 74° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 7
BYU 2.5 (46.5)
BYU won at Arizona this year (33-27)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat Arizona last year (33-27)
BYU beat Arizona in 2024 (41-19)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)25138765%30331577.8
Parker Kingston1617%22003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2361305125.549
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)147527113.622
Parker Kingston2612334.720
Jovesa Damuni1911115.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Kingston66924514.075
Chase Roberts54802614.985
Carsen Ryan (Tr)45620313.843
LJ Martin3625507.126

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala798114
Tanner Wall641000
Isaiah Glasker639391
Jack Kelly52141071
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly52141071
Isaiah Glasker639391
Bodie Schoonover335333
Keanu Tanuvasa (Tr)225233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Johnson422107
Logan Lutui505045
Therrian Alexander313125

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita27542964%32282967.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)13385346.468
Kedrick Reescano8439694.750
Quincy Craig (Tr)6536425.654
Noah Fifita11522231.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)60764412.740
Javin Whatley (Tr)41490512.085
Tre Spivey (Tr)23381716.670
Chris Hunter27372213.835

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson972107
Taye Brown939231
Max Harris (Tr)784071
Genesis Smith773018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy428470
Riley Wilson (Tr)518354
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)2611220
Taye Brown939231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Dansby (Tr)1910010
Ayden Garnes (Tr)432028
Genesis Smith773018