BYU at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview
BYU logo (#18)BYU Cougars at Arizona WildcatsArizona logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
BYU -2.5 (46.5) (-142)  Open: -3.0
BYU 33 - Arizona: 27  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (6 - 0) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 38 - 15 (30 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
ARIZ 2nd straight Home Game
BYU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: BYU -6.5  (SP+ BYU -7.5)

Projected Score: BYU: 27 - ARIZ: 21 (48)
BYU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 556 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (4 - 2) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (36 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#67)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
 
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+3.549.5
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+14
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-4
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati+1
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-15.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.545.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-0.5
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas+0.5
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+10
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-0
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State+4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#24 (.32)48% (29)37.550% (20)3.25 (29)24046% (46)2104.09 (66)#12 (.01)38% (31)14.740% (45)36% (23)3.54 (54)55.711.7
ARIZ#84 (.17)41% (94)32.241% (96)3.23 (32)14841% (81)2753.21 (119)#19 (.04)34% (11)18.541% (57)28% (3)3.08 (23)46.31.32.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense637.530.348.2%4.091234502402105.858%42%50%46%13%.32
ARIZ Defense618.514.434.4%3.082.2 - - - - - 50%50%41%28%24%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense614.720.337.9%3.541.7 - - - - - 52%48%40%36%17%.01
ARIZ Offense632.235.841.3%3.211.3234231482754.344%56%41%41%16%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU633:1423.343%71%6.755.711.75.71.7129.1
Arizona630:4423.236%67%5.746.31.32.27.82.3134.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense658% (19)50% (20)41.5239.85.817 (16).31 (14)3.25 (29)90% (4)8% (43)1.03 (48)
ARIZ Defense650% (68)41% (57) - - - - .06 (50)2.58 (30)64% (35)14% (10)0.97 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense652% (95)40% (45) - - - - -.01 (22)2.59 (31)76% (95)11% (43)0.76 (7)
ARIZ Offense644% (111)41% (96)34.2147.84.37 (95).17 (50)3.23 (32)75% (53)9% (62)1.14 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense642% (117)46% (46)1625.7210.28.213.18 (86)3 (26).33 (43)1.6 (57)29% (44)29% (84).35 (60)5% (37)2.1 (58)
ARIZ Defense650% (64)28% (3) - - - - - - 9 (6).02 (10)1.5 (78)34% (37)23% (16).08 (13)10% (4)1.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense648% (43)36% (23) - - - - - - 8 (12).04 (15)1.5 (50)32% (65)24% (24).17 (32)6% (63)1.7 (16)
ARIZ Offense656% (25)41% (81)22.836.82757.51215 (13)6 (102).17 (105)1.5 (95)30% (53)28% (97).41 (44)7% (107)2.1 (48)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 17.34  #36
BYU's Offense Rating: 19.17  #38
BYU's Defense Rating: 1.83  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.6  #23
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #39
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.4  #15

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 17.34   Arizona: 10.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 16.6   Arizona: 9.1




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.615  #55
Arizona's Offense Rating: 7.90  #86
Arizona's Defense Rating: 0.77  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1  #43
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #50
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


BYU Scoring
Offense: 37.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 14.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.3

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 27
Arizona 21


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 25
BYU 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 26
BYU 25

Total Points: 51
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Arizona27BYU33BYU -2.5BYU46.5Over
202410/12BYU41Arizona19BYU -3BYU48.5Over
202109/04Arizona16BYU24BYU -13.5Arizona54.0Under
201809/01Arizona23BYU28Arizona -10BYU60.5Under
201609/03Arizona16BYU18Arizona -2.5BYU63.5Under
200812/20Arizona31BYU21
200709/01BYU20Arizona7
200609/02Arizona16BYU13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona212 Overs
BYU643 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 42 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams4 - 43 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#36) BYU at (#55) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUARIZ
Power RatePwr #36 #55
SP+SP+ #23 #43
Perf GradeGrade #13 #35
OffenseOff #33 #52
DefenseDef #31 #16
Spec TeamsST #3 #56
TalentTal #79 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #65

BYU Notes
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team

Arizona Notes
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
(3/22) OL 1/5 back, 6 portal adds, need hits
(3/19) QB Fifita regressed LY. Locke (Wisc) added
(3/19) Def bad LY, F7 returns a lot, 4 DB portals
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BYU OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #33 #16
SuccessSuc #29 #11
ExplosiveExp #68 #48
PPAPPA #24 #19
PowerPwr #38 #32
SP+SP+ #39 #37
Pts POPPO #66 #23
HavocHav #28 #3
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BYU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #35 #48
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #57
Run ExplRExp #48 #78
PPAExp #14 #50
Run BlockR Blk #10 -
OL YdsOLY #29 #30
Stuff RateStuff #23 #38
TackleTak -  #49
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BYU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #78 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #46 #3
Pass ExplPExl #57 #78
PPAExp #43 #10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #34 #78
F7 HavocF7 #43 #10
DB HavocDB #37 #4
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatARIZ OffBYU Def
Perf GradePerf #52 #31
SuccessSuc #94 #31
ExplosiveExp #35 #9
PPAPPA #84 #12
PowerPwr #86 #36
SP+SP+ #50 #15
Pts POPPO #119 #54
HavocHav #79 #49
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #56 #33
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #45
Run ExplRExp #17 #7
PPAExp #50 #22
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #31
Stuff RateStuff #88 #55
TackleTak -  #36
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatARIZ OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #16 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #23
Pass ExplPExl #95 #50
PPAExp #105 #15
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37 #77
F7 HavocF7 #62 #43
DB HavocDB #107 #63
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 86° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 7
BYU 2.5 (46.5)
BYU won at Arizona this year (33-27)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat Arizona last year (41-19)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)9114463%1220838.5
McCae Hillstead4580%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin10165246.549
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)7129574.216
Cody Hagen7101214.457
Sione I Moa179015.319
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Roberts22420319.185
Parker Kingston23333214.575
Carsen Ryan (Tr)14211215.128
LJ Martin97708.619

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala315101
Siale Esera311021
Isaiah Glasker267221
Logan Lutui263012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly217420
Isaiah Glasker267221
Faletau Satuala315101
Choe Bryant-Strother21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Therrian Alexander111022
Bodie Schoonover140022
Logan Lutui263012

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita13120963%15601547.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)5956%68017.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)7140315.760
Quincy Craig (Tr)2820717.454
Kedrick Reescano2514525.836
Noah Fifita486031.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javin Whatley (Tr)25328313.185
Kris Hutson (Tr)20262213.140
Chris Hunter17239214.135
Luke Wysong (Tr)15229115.347

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson411102
Genesis Smith382015
Taye Brown363021
Max Harris (Tr)322040
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Wilson (Tr)194311
Chase Kennedy164250
Dalton Johnson411102
Julien Savaiinaea102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Garnes (Tr)140015
Genesis Smith382015
Michael Dansby (Tr)111004