Iowa at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa logo (#21)Iowa Hawkeyes at USC Trojans(#17)USC logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
USC -6.5 (48.5) (-230)  Open: -6.5 | 49.5
USC 26 - Iowa: 21  (Big Ten)

 
Hawkeyes (9 - 4) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#50)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Heavy Rain Predicted
Wind: 12.1 MPH
USC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: USC -4.5  (SP+ IOWA -0)

Projected Score: IOWA: 22 - USC: 26 (48)
USC Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
IOWA Travel: 1544 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+6.548.5L 21 - 26UY
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.543.0W 20 - 17UN
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5.538.5W 40 - 16OY
Wed 12/31 Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.047.5W 34 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#76 (.16)44% (47)29.349% (15)3.41 (7)16438% (107)1274.39 (25)#19 (.06)39% (35)16.141% (58)38% (32)3.27 (35)26.10.91.1
USC#6 (.35)50% (7)35.848% (18)3.25 (21)16153% (4)2744.72 (8)#59 (.14)45% (121)2347% (122)43% (88)3.37 (42)50.41.11.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Offense1329.329.844.4%4.390.9162911641274.660%38%49%38%11%.16
USC Defense132317.945.5%3.371.3 - - - - - 48%50%47%43%16%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Defense1316.117.238.9%3.271.1 - - - - - 50%48%41%38%17%.06
USC Offense1335.84350.3%4.721.1224351612745.448%50%48%53%13%.35

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa1328:581643%67%2.626.10.91.14.41.6533
USC1327:2322.252%64%5.350.41.11.352.2226.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense1360% (12)49% (15)35.9164.14.626 (23).2 (29)3.41 (7)83% (5)8% (32)0.87 (112)
USC Defense1348% (51)47% (122) - - - - .11 (70)3.27 (125)65% (25)11% (35)0.79 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense1350% (63)41% (58) - - - - .07 (51)2.87 (68)69% (51)10% (49)0.87 (23)
USC Offense1348% (83)48% (18)30160.55.428 (16).21 (24)3.25 (21)79% (24)7% (22)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense1338% (126)38% (107)12.620.3126.86.310.110 (128)7 (60).19 (100)1.5 (92)26% (13)25% (120).13 (126)3% (4)1.8 (120)
USC Defense1350% (89)43% (88) - - - - - - 11 (12).17 (38)1.6 (76)29% (118)32% (100).28 (65)5% (104)2.1 (104)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense1348% (67)38% (32) - - - - - - 11 (38).14 (23)1.3 (4)29% (112)23% (5).17 (19)7% (31)1.9 (47)
USC Offense1350% (56)53% (4)20.230274.59.213.625 (22)8 (34).51 (4)1.6 (42)26% (10)38% (10).52 (10)6% (68)2.2 (18)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 18.78  #20
Iowa's Offense Rating: 14.86  #41
Iowa's Defense Rating: -3.92  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 4.6
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #48
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 18.78   USC: 22.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 17.5   USC: 17.3




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.6  #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26  #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3  #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4  #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5  #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.2

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
USC 26
Iowa 22


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 26
USC 19

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
USC 28
Iowa 25

Total Points: 53
USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15USC26Iowa21USC -6.5Iowa48.5Under
201912/27Iowa49USC24USC -1.5Iowa54.5Over
200201/02USC38Iowa17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC201 Overs
Iowa121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#20) IOWA at (#13) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatIOWAUSC
Power RatePwr #20 #13
SP+SP+ #15 #17
Perf GradeGrade #9 #33
OffenseOff #8 #18
DefenseDef #18 #79
Spec TeamsST #8 #122
TalentTal #41 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #18
Iowa Notes
(11/28) Killed Neb to finish 8-4, 6-3 in B1G. Good season
(11/22) Stop L streak with comeback vs MSU. Found a way
(11/16) 2 hard L's to Ducks/USC. 6-4 feels crossroad-ish
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
Iowa Injury Report
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #8 #79
SuccessSuc #47 #121
ExplosiveExp #133 #13
PPAPPA #76 #59
PowerPwr #41 #36
SP+SP+ #48 #35
Pts POPPO #25 #42
HavocHav #6 #63
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #30 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #15 #122
Run ExplRExp #112 #6
PPAExp #29 #70
Run BlockR Blk #1 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #125
Stuff RateStuff #7 #85
TackleTak -  #26
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #56 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #88
Pass ExplPExl #92 #76
PPAExp #100 #38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #4 #84
F7 HavocF7 #32 #35
DB HavocDB #4 #104
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #18
SuccessSuc #7 #35
ExplosiveExp #37 #3
PPAPPA #6 #19
PowerPwr #9 #20
SP+SP+ #11 #7
Pts POPPO #8 #35
HavocHav #34 #44
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #22 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #58
Run ExplRExp #76 #23
PPAExp #24 #51
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #68
Stuff RateStuff #32 #69
TackleTak -  #92
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #23 #24
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #32
Pass ExplPExl #42 #4
PPAExp #4 #23
Pass Block/RushP Blk #107 #7
F7 HavocF7 #22 #49
DB HavocDB #68 #31
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 61° - Wind: 12 mph
Rain: 0.343
Rematch from Week 12
USC -6.5 (48.5)
USC won vs Iowa this year (26-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)15024063%1529866.4
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton15678345.034
Mark Gronowski (Tr)120491154.167
Jaziun Patterson5729905.217
Xavier Williams4426035.943
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Vonnahme22288213.143
Sam Phillips (Tr)16261016.345
Jacob Gill22260111.844
Reece Vander Zee11186116.929

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar7810251
Xavier Nwankpa691010
Koen Entringer694013
Zach Lutmer686106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Llewellyn239675
Ethan Hurkett339620
Aaron Graves367531
Karson Sharar7810251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall390008
Zach Lutmer686106
Deshaun Lee341006

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava24737366%34312389.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller13187376.775
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5115062.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Lake McRee30450415.064
Tanook Hines28398214.251

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II801010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce582103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby236530
Kameryn Fountain308400
Jide Abasiri244420
Anthony Lucas374370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcelles Williams330004
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
Christian Pierce582103