Iowa at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa logo   Iowa Hawkeyes at USC Trojans  USC logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
USC -6.5 (48.5) (-230)  Open: -6.5 | 49.5
USC 26 - Iowa: 21  (Big Ten)

 
Hawkeyes (9 - 4) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#50)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
USC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: USC -0.5  (SP+ IOWA -3)

Projected Score: IOWA: 25 - USC: 26 (51)
USC Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
IOWA Travel: 1544 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+6.548.5L 21 - 26UY
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.543.0W 20 - 17UN
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5.538.5W 40 - 16OY
Wed 12/31 Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.047.5W 34 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)29.344% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)16.146% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)35.852% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)2344% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Offense1329.329.842.3%3.770.8153061851215.262%37%44%40%13%.14
USC Defense132317.943.8%3.641.2 - - - - - 46%53%44%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Defense1316.117.242%3.371.8 - - - - - 46%54%46%39%17%.11
USC Offense1335.84348.4%3.761.4214081382695.540%60%52%46%18%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa1327:0515.441%50%2.826.30.81.84.52.1233.6
USC1328:1221.345%47%5.3461.41.23.91.5133.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense1362% (7)44% (63)35.51855.229 (18).13 (71)2.92 (89)62% (120)10% (76)1.02 (47)
USC Defense1346% (22)44% (78) - - - - .18 (96)3.17 (92)76% (81)7% (127)1 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense1346% (17)46% (97) - - - - .07 (38)3.07 (84)84% (126)10% (68)0.68 (1)
USC Offense1340% (126)52% (10)25.2138.45.519 (73).23 (21)3.49 (9)85% (6)8% (24)0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense1337% (129)40% (94)11.518.6121.56.510.69 (128)7 (26).21 (93)1.5 (93)26% (4)28% (99).2 (108)3% (7)2 (72)
USC Defense1353% (113)44% (103) - - - - - - 10 (66).2 (49)1.3 (4)28% (122)27% (27).14 (6)7% (42)1.8 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense1354% (118)39% (51) - - - - - - 16 (10).18 (39)1.5 (36)32% (76)28% (36).24 (39)7% (27)1.8 (7)
USC Offense1360% (9)46% (26)24.138269.27.111.225 (31)12 (85).25 (74)1.5 (108)29% (24)36% (18).4 (36)10% (134)2 (74)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 15.10  #22
Iowa's Offense Rating: 19.71  #29
Iowa's Defense Rating: 4.61  #23
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 4.6
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7  #12
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #37
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 15.10   USC: 17.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 19.7   USC: 16.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 17.925  #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87  #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9  #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9  #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.2

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
USC 26
Iowa 25


Projected Total Points: 51
USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15USC26Iowa21USC -6.5Iowa48.5Under
201912/27Iowa49USC24USC -1.5Iowa54.5Over
200201/02USC38Iowa17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC201 Overs
Iowa121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#22) IOWA at (#26) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatIOWAUSC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #22 #26
SP+SP+ #12 #16
Perf GradeGrade #8 #30
OffenseOff #9 #17
DefenseDef #21 #73
Spec TeamsST #8 #124
TalentTal #41 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #18
Iowa Notes
(11/28) Killed Neb to finish 8-4, 6-3 in B1G. Good season
(11/22) Stop L streak with comeback vs MSU. Found a way
(11/16) 2 hard L's to Ducks/USC. 6-4 feels crossroad-ish
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
Iowa Injury Report
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffUSC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #73
SuccessSuc #72 #94
ExplosiveExp #110 #24
PPAPPA #100 #78
PowerPwr #29 #45
SP+SP+ #37 #36
Pts POPPO #84 #49
HavocHav #31 #105
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #26 #127
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #78
Run ExplRExp #47 #77
PPAExp #71 #96
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLY #89 #92
Stuff RateStuff #110 #120
TackleTak -  #30
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #44 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #103
Pass ExplPExl #93 #4
PPAExp #93 #49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #64
F7 HavocF7 #76 #127
DB HavocDB #7 #42
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffIOWA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #17 #21
SuccessSuc #11 #72
ExplosiveExp #91 #4
PPAPPA #41 #30
PowerPwr #16 #23
SP+SP+ #9 #6
Pts POPPO #85 #27
HavocHav #101 #51
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #15 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #97
Run ExplRExp #106 #1
PPAExp #21 #38
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #84
Stuff RateStuff #22 #115
TackleTak -  #84
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #21 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #51
Pass ExplPExl #108 #36
PPAExp #74 #39
Pass Block/RushP Blk #99 #5
F7 HavocF7 #24 #68
DB HavocDB #134 #27
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
USC -6.5 (48.5)
USC won vs Iowa this year (26-21)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Iowa last year (26-21)

  
IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)16626263%17411076.6
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton17087855.234
Mark Gronowski (Tr)130545164.267
Jaziun Patterson6029604.917
Xavier Williams4928535.843
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Vonnahme29434315.051
Jacob Gill24278111.644
Sam Phillips (Tr)16261016.345
Reece Vander Zee15219214.629

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar8312461
Xavier Nwankpa761010
Koen Entringer734013
Zach Lutmer716107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett3510820
Max Llewellyn259685
Aaron Graves377531
Karson Sharar8312461
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall4700010
Zach Lutmer716107
Deshaun Lee341006

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava26540366%371124109.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller15697286.275
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5415762.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Tanook Hines34561216.551
Lake McRee30450415.064

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II863010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce643103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameryn Fountain3711610
Braylan Shelby276540
Jide Abasiri264420
Eric Gentry717312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
DeCarlos Nicholson421104
Marcelles Williams370004