Mississippi State Team Profile
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Mississippi State Bulldogs (@HailStateFB)
Jeff Lebby (2nd year) (7-18)
Record: 5 - 8 (1 - 7)  |  Proj: 6 - 8 (#83)  |  SOS: (#10)
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Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5  #83
Schedule Rating:  #10
Record: 5 - 8( SEC: 1 - 7)
Spread Record 8 - 5 - 0 | O/U 7 - 6
Future 2026 Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30UN
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41OY
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58ON
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39ON
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26UY

2024 Schedule Rating:  #7
2024 Record: 2 - 10 (SEC: 0 - 8)
Spread Record 7 - 5 - 0 | O/U 8 - 4


Opponents: 5 Elite, 3 Good, 2 Avg, 1 Bad, 1 Poor
Played: 5 Elite, 3 Good, 1 Avg, 1 Bad, 1 Poor
Future: 0 Elite, 0 Good, 1 Avg, 0 Bad, 0Poor
Reg Season Opponents: Elite, Good, Avg, Bad, Poor

Show Past Schedules
2026 class: 227 points   #26
2025 class: 225 points   #28
2024 class: 223 points   #28
2023 class: 223 points   #26
2022 class: 219 points   #27

Average Class Ranking:   #27
Average Recruiting Points: 223

Four Year Crootin Profile
Consistent Top 25 Contenders
4 Year Class:  #27 - Best:  #26 Worst:  #28



CFB Crootin Averages
SEC Class: 260  #18
Power 4 Class: 225  #18
FBS Class: 179  #69


2021 class: 211 points   #25
2020 class: 220 points   #27
2019 class: 237 points   #24
2018 class: 218 points   #27
2017 class: 220 points   #24

Average Class Ranking:   #25
Average Recruiting Points: 221
 

2025 Portal Class  #16 - 32 players, 87 Avg
2024 Portal Class  #37 - 15 players, 87 Avg
2023 Portal Class  #37 - 12 players, 87 Avg
2022 Portal Class  #36 - 9 players, 88 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes
Portal Data only 2022 forward

Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049
(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014
Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 62%  #36
Offense Returning Production: 57%  #68
Defense Returning Production: 67%  #20

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class  #16
32 Commits, 87 Avg Rating
41% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 38% TY
Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Offense Talent  #31 | Defense Talent  #37
2024  #1 | 2023  #1 | 2022  #29 | 2021  #29


2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 5 - 8
2025 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 8 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

2024 Record: 2 - 10
2024 Conf Record: 0 - 8
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 4

2023 Record: 5 - 7
2023 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 4 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2022 Record: 9 - 4
2022 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 5 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

Four Year Record: 21 - 29
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 26 - 23 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 6 - 26
2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 7 - 6
2021 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7

2020 Record: 4 - 7
2020 Conf Record: 3 - 7
Spread: 5 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 7

2019 Record: 6 - 7
2019 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 4 - 8 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

2018 Record: 8 - 5
2018 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 8 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 9

Eight Year Record: 46 - 54
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 50 - 48 - 2
Eight Year Conference Record: 24 - 46

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Mayo Bowl Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43
2022Reliaquest Bowl Mississippi State vs Illinois-3.546.5W 19 - 10
2021Liberty Bowl Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34
2020Forces Bowl Mississippi State vs Tulsa+2.548.0W 28 - 26
2019City Bowl Mississippi State vs Louisville-5.064.5L 28 - 38
2018Outback Bowl Mississippi State vs Iowa-7.040.0L 22 - 27
2017N/A Mississippi State vs Louisville+6.562.0W 31 - 27
2016Petersburg Bowl Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)-11.558.0W 17 - 16
2015N/A Mississippi State vs NC State-7.0W 51 - 28
Power Ranking Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2025.14 (90)1.29 (45)42% (86)4.41 (22)29 (68)43%45%.22 (110)1.27 (71)44% (102)3.68 (69)27.6 (39)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2024.17 (78)1.42 (6)39% (109)3.75 (86)28.1 (90)37%57%.32 (130)1.16 (18)50% (133)4.32 (113)29.7 (89)



More Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20251328:4121.643%45%7.261.61.21.44.31.60
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20241225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.82



Overall Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2025 Offense1330.433.925.841.5% (86)4.41 (22)1.2223991582413.753% (42)46% (92)44% (62)39% (102)18% (117).14 (90)
2025 Defense1330.227.93144.2% (102)3.68 (69)1.4 - - - - - 53% (103)46% (36)48% (124)40% (56)14% (110).22 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2024 Offense1225.830.71939.2% (109)3.75 (86)1.520378139239450% (73)50% (62)40% (105)38% (104)21% (127).17 (78)
2024 Defense1234.134.93350.4% (133)4.32 (113)0.9 - - - - - 59% (132)41% (3)47% (108)55% (134)11% (134).32 (130)



Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2025 Offense1353% (42)44% (62)42.3157.83.729 (16).11 (71)2.81 (95)72% (72)12% (125)0.96 (68)
2025 Defense1353% (103)48% (124) - - - - .16 (97)3.41 (135)77% (108)8% (121)0.89 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2024 Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
2024 Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)



Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2025 Offense1346% (92)39% (102)18.730241.48.112.920 (75)9 (60).21 (93)1.7 (18)34% (117)28% (85).3 (71)6% (81)2.3 (7)
2025 Defense1346% (36)40% (56) - - - - - - 13 (6).3 (91)1.7 (124)30% (100)31% (83).38 (110)6% (69)2.3 (130)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2024 Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
2024 Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)




Overall
Power Rating  #38 | SP+ Rating  #58
Performance Grade  #105
Special Teams Grade  #77
Record Prediction 5.5 - 7.5  #83
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6

5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Offense
Power  #24 | SP+  #42 | Grade  #84
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
Off Success  #86 | Explosivness  #45
Rush Grade  #68 | Pass Grade  #43
Rush Success  #62 | Explosiveness  #68
Pass Success  #102 | Explosiveness  #18
Run Block  #98 | Pass Block  #78
OL YDS  #95 | Stuff Rate  #84
Scoring Zone Off:  #22

Defense
Power  #43 | SP+  #76 | Grade  #119
Def Success  #102 | Explosivness  #71
Rush Success  #124 | Explosiveness  #31
Tackling  #96 | Run Def  #113
Pass Success  #56 | Explosiveness  #124
Pass Rush  #132 | Coverage  #87
F7 Havoc  #121 | DB Havoc  #69
DL YDS  #135 | Def Stuff Rate  #126
Scoring Zone Def  #69


Roster
Team Talent  #40 Blue Chips: 19%  #27
Offense Talent  #31 Defense Talent  #37
Crootin: '25 Class  #26 - 4 YR Class:  #27
Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
Portal Class  #16 - 32 players, 87 Avg
41% of Roster from Portal, 38% TY
65 New Players, 71% of '25 Roster  #85

Scoring & Records
Scoring: 30.4 - 30.2 | Scoring Margin: (0.2)
Home: 34 - 28 (6) | Road: 26 - 31 (-5.2)
OC: Jeff Lebby - in his second season
DC: Coleman Hutzler - in his first season

2025 Record: 5 - 8 (8 - 5 - 0) (SEC: 1 - 7)
2024 Record: 2 - 10 (7 - 5 - 0) (SEC: 0 - 8)
2023 Record: 5 - 7 (4 - 8 - 0) (SEC: 1 - 7)
4 Yr Record: (21 - 29) | 8 Yr Record: (46 - 54)


Notes
DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
 
'25 Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.49 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg Offensive Turnovers
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Awful 1st/2nd Down Success 66%
Bad when off Schedule 30%

'25 Defense
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 41%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good at Forcing Turnovers
Awful Penalty Team, Bad Field Position
Poor 1st/2nd Down Success 71%
Bad when Opp is off Schedule 30%

Returning Prod
HC Lebby, OC Lebby & QB all back
'24 QB Blake Shapen returns
Returning Production: 62%  #36
Offense: 57%  #68 | Defense: 67%  #20
OL Prod: 60%  #55, 2 clear starters
OL Snaps: 3595  #37 | From Portal: 1600  #19
Rush Prod: 100%  #1 | Rec Prod: 76%  #22
Def Front Seven: 72% - Secondary: 69%
Vegas Preseason Win Total: 3.5 - 8.5

 
4 Year Overall
2025 SP+ Overall:  #58 - Power Rating:  #38
2024 SP+ Overall:  #88 - Power Rating:  #101
2023 SP+ Overall:  #66 - Power Rating:  #84
2022 SP+ Overall:  #19

#19 #75 #95 #48

4 Year Offense
2025 SP+ Offense:  #42 - Power Rating:  #24
2024 SP+ Offense:  #82 - Power Rating:  #100
2023 SP+ Offense:  #78 - Power Rating:  #120
2022 SP+ Offense:  #32

#32 #99 #91 #33

4 Year Defense
2025 SP+ Defense:  #76 - Power Rating:  #43
2024 SP+ Defense:  #98 - Power Rating:  #130
2023 SP+ Defense:  #55 - Power Rating:  #85
2022 SP+ Defense:  #30

#30 #70 #114 #60