Mississippi State Bulldogs Team Profile

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Schedule
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Records
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Notes

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-9
Fri 9/5	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+9
Fri 9/12	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-25.5
Fri 9/19	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-17
Fri 9/26	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+14
Fri 10/3	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+23
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	Mississippi State at Florida	+18.5
Fri 10/24	Mississippi State vs Texas	+21.5
Fri 10/31	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+10.5
Fri 11/7	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+21.5
Fri 11/14	Mississippi State at Missouri	+15
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+14

Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 #119
Schedule Rating: #5
Future 2026 Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

2024 Schedule Rating: #7
2024 Record: 2 - 10 (SEC: 0 - 8)
Spread Record 7 - 5 - 0 | O/U 8 - 4

Opponents: 6 Elite, 3 Good, 0 Avg, 1 Bad, 2 Poor

Reg Season Opponents: 6 Elite, 3 Good, 0 Avg, 1 Bad, 2 Poor

Show Past Schedules

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs Memphis	-17.0	58.0	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State at Arizona	-11.5	57.5	W 39 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	-3.0	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State vs Bowling Green	-31.0	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	N
Sat 10/1	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	45.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-8.0	55.5	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-3.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	61.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-12.5	50.5	W 39 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+16.5	53.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State	-39.0	62.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Thu 11/24	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+2.5	63.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10	U	Y

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Mississippi State's 2020 Schedule
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State at LSU	+14.5	57.0	W 44 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-16.5	68.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/10	Mississippi State at Kentucky	+3.5	57.5	L 2 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+4.5	56.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Alabama	+32.0		L 0 - 41		N
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	-18.5	45.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State at Georgia	+25.5	44.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/28	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+10.0	70.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/12	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+5.5	50.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/19	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+1.5	49.0	W 51 - 32	O	Y
Thu 12/31	Mississippi State vs Tulsa	+2.5	48.0	W 28 - 26	O	Y

2025 class: 225 points #28
2024 class: 223 points #28
2023 class: 223 points #26
2022 class: 219 points #27
2021 class: 211 points #25

Average Class Ranking: #27
Average Recruiting Points: 220

Class Averages
SEC Class: 260 #18
Power 4 Class: 225 #18
FBS Class: 179 #69

2020 class: 220 points #27
2019 class: 237 points #24
2018 class: 218 points #27
2017 class: 220 points #24
2016 class: 211 points #28

Average Class Ranking: #26
Average Recruiting Points: 221

Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)	44	84	52%	502	3	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	112	834	13	7.4	59
Davon Booth	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Markus Allen (Tr)	42	636	3	15.1	78
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Cam Thompson (Tr)	27	388	3	14.4	54
Seydou Traore	34	361	1	10.6	32

(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Coleman Hutzler

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nevaeh Sanders (Tr)	8	5	5	2	0
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Will Whitson (Tr)	20	4	2	2	0
Raishein Thomas (Tr)	12	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayven Williams (Tr)	29	2	2	1	4
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3

Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 62% #36
Offense Returning Production: 57% #68
Defense Returning Production: 67% #20

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class #16
32 Commits, 87 Avg Rating
40% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 38% TY

Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #49
Offense Talent #28 | Defense Talent #53
2024 #43 | 2023 #31 | 2022 #29 | 2021 #29

2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 0 - 0
2025 Conf Record: 0 - 0
Spread: 0 - 0 - 0 | Totals: 0 - 0

2024 Record: 2 - 10
2024 Conf Record: 0 - 8
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 4

2023 Record: 5 - 7
2023 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 4 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2022 Record: 9 - 4
2022 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 5 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

Four Year Record: 16 - 21
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 18 - 18 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 5 - 19

2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 7 - 6
2021 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7

2020 Record: 4 - 7
2020 Conf Record: 3 - 7
Spread: 5 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 7

2019 Record: 6 - 7
2019 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 4 - 8 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

2018 Record: 8 - 5
2018 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 8 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 9

Eight Year Record: 41 - 46
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 42 - 43 - 2
Eight Year Conference Record: 23 - 39

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Reliaquest Bowl	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10
2021	Liberty Bowl	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34
2020	Forces Bowl	Mississippi State vs Tulsa	+2.5	48.0	W 28 - 26
2019	City Bowl	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38
2018	Outback Bowl	Mississippi State vs Iowa	-7.0	40.0	L 22 - 27
2017	N/A	Mississippi State vs Louisville	+6.5	62.0	W 31 - 27
2016	Petersburg Bowl	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16
2015	N/A	Mississippi State vs NC State	-7.0		W 51 - 28

Power Ranking Stats (2024)

Teams	Offense PPA	Offense Success	Offense Pts Per Opp	Avg Start FP	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Defense PPA	Defense Success	Defense Pts Per Opp	Opponent FP
2024	.17 (78)	39% (109)	3.75 (86)	28.1 (90)	37%	57%	.32 (130)	50% (133)	4.32 (113)	29.7 (89)

Teams	Offense PPA	Offense Success	Offense Pts Per Opp	Avg Start FP	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Defense PPA	Defense Success	Defense Pts Per Opp	Opponent FP
2023	.09 (116)	36% (126)	3.47 (96)	29.9 (52)	31%	42%	.17 (61)	42% (71)	4.33 (115)	29.1 (70)

More Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs
2024	12	25:41 (133)	20.3 (82)	37%	57%	6.8 (99)	60.3 (99)	1.5 (70)	0.9	3.9 (126)	0.8 (133)	2

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs
2023	12	28:40 (116)	16.6 (123)	31%	42%	6.3 (71)	56.8 (84)	1.2 (29)	1	5.6 (73)	2.3 (51)	2

Overall Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PPG	Home	Road	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
2024 Offense	12	25.8	30.7	19	39.2% (109)	3.75 (86)	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50% (73)	50% (62)	40% (105)	38% (104)	21% (127)	.17 (78)
2024 Defense	12	34.1	34.9	33	50.4% (133)	4.32 (113)	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59% (132)	41% (3)	47% (108)	55% (134)	11% (134)	.32 (130)

Teams	Games	PPG	Home	Road	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
2023 Offense	12	21.8	25.3	15	35.9% (126)	3.47 (96)	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50% (64)	49% (67)	38% (123)	35% (120)	16% (76)	.09 (116)
2023 Defense	12	26.6	25.1	29.5	42.3% (71)	4.33 (115)	1	-	-	-	-	-	52% (97)	47% (35)	42% (64)	43% (84)	16% (80)	.17 (61)

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
2024 Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)
2024 Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
2023 Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)
2023 Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
2024 Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
2024 Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
2023 Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)
2023 Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)

Power Ratings Overall: 4.30 #56
Offense: 19.39 #38
Defense: 15.09 #70
SP+ Overall: 0.0 #63
SP+ Offense: 28.0 #59
SP+ Defense: 28.0 #67

Returning Prod HC Lebby, OC Lebby & QB all back
'24 QB Blake Shapen returns
Returning Production: 62% #36
Offense: 57% #68 | Defense: 67% #20
OL Prod: 60% #56, 2 clear starters
OL Snaps: 3591 #39 | From Portal: 1591 #19
Rush Prod: 100% #1 | Rec Prod: 76% #20
Def Front Seven: 72% - Secondary: 75%

Roster Team Talent #49 Blue Chips: 17% #29
Offense Talent #28 Defense Talent #53
Crootin Class #28 - 4 YR Rank #27
Portal Class #16 - 32 players, 87 Avg
40% of Roster from Portal, 38% TY
49 New Players, 56% of '25 Roster #114

2025 Schedule Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 #119
Vegas Win Total Record: 3.5 - 8.5
Schedule Rating: 139 #5
View Schedule & Predicted Results
Opps: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Scoring Scoring: 25.8 - 34.1 (22 - 27) in '24
Scoring at Home: 31 - 35 | Road: 19 - 33
OC: Jeff Lebby - in his second season
DC: Coleman Hutzler - in his second season

Records 2024 Record: 2 - 10 (7 - 5 - 0) (SEC: 0 - 8)
2023 Record: 5 - 7 (4 - 8 - 0) (SEC: 1 - 7)
2022 Record: 9 - 4 (7 - 5 - 1) (SEC: 4 - 4)
4 Yr Record: (16 - 21) | 8 Yr Record: (41 - 46)

'24 OffenseBalanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad Offensive Turnovers
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Awful 1st/2nd Down Success 66%
Avg when off Schedule 32%

'24 DefenseBad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor at Forcing Turnovers
Poor Penalty Team, Bad Field Position
Awful 1st/2nd Down Success 76%
Awful when Opp is off Schedule 39%

Team NotesAdded 5 potrtal OL post spring. Bad sign?
LY roster was joke vs SEC. How much better TY?
Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
WR- took 6 Portals to find weapons
OL 2/5 back. 4 portal adds. Bad unit LY
Def torched LY. Return a lot, but is that good?