Mississippi State Team Profile
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Mississippi State Bulldogs (@HailStateFB)
Jeff Lebby (2nd year) (6-12)
Record: 4 - 2 (0 - 2)  |  Proj: 6 - 6 (#77)  |  SOS: (#8)
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Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+8.551.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+7.5
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas-2.5
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+8.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+14.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+8

Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9  #77
Schedule Rating:  #8
Record: 4 - 2( SEC: 0 - 2)
Spread Record 5 - 1 - 0 | O/U 2 - 4
Future 2026 Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30UN
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41OY
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58ON
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39ON
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26UY

2024 Schedule Rating:  #7
2024 Record: 2 - 10 (SEC: 0 - 8)
Spread Record 7 - 5 - 0 | O/U 8 - 4


Opponents: 6 Elite, 1 Good, 2 Avg, 1 Bad, 1 Poor
Played: 2 Elite, 0 Good, 1 Avg, 1 Bad, 1 Poor
Future: 4 Elite, 1 Good, 1 Avg, 0 Bad, 0Poor
Reg Season Opponents: 6 Elite, 3 Good, 0 Avg, 1 Bad, 2 Poor

Show Past Schedules
2025 class: 225 points   #28
2024 class: 223 points   #28
2023 class: 223 points   #26
2022 class: 219 points   #27
2021 class: 211 points   #25

Average Class Ranking:   #27
Average Recruiting Points: 220

Four Year Crootin Profile
Consistent Top 25 Contenders
4 Year Class:  #27 - Best:  #26 Worst:  #28



CFB Crootin Averages
SEC Class: 260  #18
Power 4 Class: 225  #18
FBS Class: 179  #69


2020 class: 220 points   #27
2019 class: 237 points   #24
2018 class: 218 points   #27
2017 class: 220 points   #24
2016 class: 211 points   #28

Average Class Ranking:   #26
Average Recruiting Points: 221
 

2025 Portal Class  #16 - 32 players, 87 Avg
2024 Portal Class  #37 - 15 players, 87 Avg
2023 Portal Class  #37 - 12 players, 87 Avg
2022 Portal Class  #36 - 9 players, 88 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes
Portal Data only 2022 forward

Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen10015067%1204948.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)2450%20005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)8446565.525
Davon Booth5926544.522
Xavier Gayten895211.925
Kamario Taylor107907.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)22378417.258
Anthony Evans III (Tr)31364211.757
Jordan Mosley7159122.775
Seydou Traore11127311.555
(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)400004
Nic Mitchell301000
Isaac Smith280001
Jalen Smith (Tr)281000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)122231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Deonte Anderson81100
Kalvin Dinkins142100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)400004
Kelley Jones140004
DeAgo Brumfeld171013
Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 62%  #36
Offense Returning Production: 57%  #68
Defense Returning Production: 67%  #20

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class  #16
32 Commits, 87 Avg Rating
41% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 38% TY
Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Offense Talent  #31 | Defense Talent  #37
2024  #43 | 2023  #1 | 2022  #29 | 2021  #29


2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 4 - 2
2025 Conf Record: 0 - 2
Spread: 5 - 1 - 0 | Totals: 2 - 4

2024 Record: 2 - 10
2024 Conf Record: 0 - 8
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 4

2023 Record: 5 - 7
2023 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 4 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2022 Record: 9 - 4
2022 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 5 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

Four Year Record: 20 - 23
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 23 - 19 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 5 - 21
2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 7 - 6
2021 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7

2020 Record: 4 - 7
2020 Conf Record: 3 - 7
Spread: 5 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 7

2019 Record: 6 - 7
2019 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 4 - 8 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

2018 Record: 8 - 5
2018 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 8 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 9

Eight Year Record: 45 - 48
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 47 - 44 - 2
Eight Year Conference Record: 23 - 41

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Reliaquest Bowl Mississippi State vs Illinois-3.546.5W 19 - 10
2021Liberty Bowl Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34
2020Forces Bowl Mississippi State vs Tulsa+2.548.0W 28 - 26
2019City Bowl Mississippi State vs Louisville-5.064.5L 28 - 38
2018Outback Bowl Mississippi State vs Iowa-7.040.0L 22 - 27
2017N/A Mississippi State vs Louisville+6.562.0W 31 - 27
2016Petersburg Bowl Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)-11.558.0W 17 - 16
2015N/A Mississippi State vs NC State-7.0W 51 - 28
Power Ranking Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2025.26 (43)1.24 (72)47% (32)5.13 (8)31.4 (28)44%70%.14 (56)1.17 (33)41% (61)3.52 (52)26.5 (31)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2024.17 (78)1.42 (6)39% (109)3.75 (86)28.1 (90)37%57%.32 (130)1.16 (18)50% (133)4.32 (113)29.7 (89)



More Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
2025627:4620.344%70%8.377.211.84.31.30
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20241225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.82



Overall Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2025 Offense633.739.821.547.4% (32)5.13 (8)1203961842124.556% (31)44% (106)53% (9)41% (89)16% (83).26 (43)
2025 Defense619.817.82440.7% (61)3.52 (52)1.8 - - - - - 56% (116)44% (21)43% (88)37% (34)15% (88).14 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2024 Offense1225.830.71939.2% (109)3.75 (86)1.520378139239450% (73)50% (62)40% (105)38% (104)21% (127).17 (78)
2024 Defense1234.134.93350.4% (133)4.32 (113)0.9 - - - - - 59% (132)41% (3)47% (108)55% (134)11% (134).32 (130)



Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2025 Offense656% (31)53% (9)40.8183.84.516 (20).21 (38)3.22 (34)73% (66)10% (84)0.92 (86)
2025 Defense656% (116)43% (88) - - - - .06 (56)3.2 (122)69% (59)8% (109)0.81 (20)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2024 Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
2024 Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)



Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2025 Offense644% (106)41% (89)17.326.2211.78.112.210 (60)4 (50).32 (48)1.8 (14)32% (87)32% (61).44 (39)6% (87)2.4 (10)
2025 Defense644% (21)37% (34) - - - - - - 8 (12).25 (70)1.7 (116)31% (90)24% (24).11 (22)7% (35)1.9 (36)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2024 Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
2024 Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)




Overall
Power Rating  #32 | SP+ Rating  #37
Performance Grade  #57
Special Teams Grade  #78
Record Prediction 6.1 - 5.9  #77
5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Offense
Power  #23 | SP+  #39 | Grade  #67
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Off Success  #32 | Explosivness  #72
Rush Grade  #37 | Pass Grade  #27
Rush Success  #9 | Explosiveness  #86
Pass Success  #89 | Explosiveness  #14
Run Block  #102 | Pass Block  #72
OL YDS  #34 | Stuff Rate  #26
Scoring Zone Off:  #8

Defense
Power  #43 | SP+  #40 | Grade  #43
Def Success  #61 | Explosivness  #33
Rush Success  #88 | Explosiveness  #20
Tackling  #62 | Run Def  #29
Pass Success  #34 | Explosiveness  #116
Pass Rush  #119 | Coverage  #27
F7 Havoc  #109 | DB Havoc  #35
Scoring Zone Def  #52


Roster
Team Talent  #40 Blue Chips: 19%  #27
Offense Talent  #31 Defense Talent  #37
Crootin: '25 Class  #28 - 4 YR Class:  #27
Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
Portal Class  #16 - 32 players, 87 Avg
41% of Roster from Portal, 38% TY
65 New Players, 71% of '25 Roster  #85

Scoring & Records
Scoring: 33.7 - 19.8 (26 - 34) in '24
Scoring at Home: 40 - 18 | Road: 22 - 24
OC: Jeff Lebby - in his second season
DC: Coleman Hutzler - in his second season

2025 Record: 4 - 2 (5 - 1 - 0) (SEC: 0 - 2)
2024 Record: 2 - 10 (7 - 5 - 0) (SEC: 0 - 8)
2023 Record: 5 - 7 (4 - 8 - 0) (SEC: 1 - 7)
4 Yr Record: (20 - 23) | 8 Yr Record: (45 - 48)


Notes
RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
 
'25 Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.13 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Good Offensive Turnovers
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad 1st/2nd Down Success 68%
Avg when off Schedule 32%

'25 Defense
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.52 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good at Forcing Turnovers
Awful Penalty Team, Bad Field Position
Poor 1st/2nd Down Success 69%
Good when Opp is off Schedule 24%

Returning Prod
HC Lebby, OC Lebby & QB all back
'24 QB Blake Shapen returns
Returning Production: 62%  #36
Offense: 57%  #68 | Defense: 67%  #20
OL Prod: 60%  #55, 2 clear starters
OL Snaps: 3595  #37 | From Portal: 1600  #19
Rush Prod: 100%  #1 | Rec Prod: 76%  #22
Def Front Seven: 72% - Secondary: 69%
Vegas Preseason Win Total: 3.5 - 8.5

 
4 Year Overall
2025 SP+ Overall:  #37 - Power Rating:  #32
2024 SP+ Overall:  #88 - Power Rating:  #101
2023 SP+ Overall:  #66 - Power Rating:  #84
2022 SP+ Overall:  #19

#19 #75 #95 #35

4 Year Offense
2025 SP+ Offense:  #39 - Power Rating:  #23
2024 SP+ Offense:  #82 - Power Rating:  #100
2023 SP+ Offense:  #78 - Power Rating:  #120
2022 SP+ Offense:  #32

#32 #99 #91 #31

4 Year Defense
2025 SP+ Defense:  #40 - Power Rating:  #43
2024 SP+ Defense:  #98 - Power Rating:  #130
2023 SP+ Defense:  #55 - Power Rating:  #85
2022 SP+ Defense:  #30

#30 #70 #114 #42