Texas at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas logo (#1)Texas Longhorns at Ohio State Buckeyes(#3)Ohio State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -1.5 (46.5) (-125)  Open: -2.5 | 48.5
Ohio State 14 - Texas: 7

 
Longhorns (2 - 1) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 10 (7 - 14 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Our Line: Ohio State -8   (SP+ OSU -8)
Projected Score: TEX: 17 - OSU: 25 (42)
OSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TEX Travel: 1066 miles, 1 hrs behind
Buckeyes (3 - 0) (2 - 0 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 5 (40 - 5 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 1.4 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-40.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma+0
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-7
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+5
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-11
Sat 11/29 Texas vs Texas A&M-3.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-11
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-19
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-6.5
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-18
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-2
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-31.5
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-39
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-22.5
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-4.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#130 (-.01)42% (86)2449% (44)3.25 (40)18232% (122)2003.25 (107)#11 (-.09)33% (25)10.335% (38)31% (24)2.58 (38)811.32
OSU#36 (.32)53% (19)40.344% (73)2.99 (69)19263% (3)2835.38 (18)#5 (-.12)33% (24)5.336% (41)31% (25)1.67 (8)26.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense324741.6%3.251.3193831822004.458%41%49%32%10%-.01
OSU Defense35.35.333.1%1.671.3 - - - - - 50%48%36%31%16%-.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense310.31433.1%2.582 - - - - - 47%53%35%31%15%-.09
OSU Offense340.340.353.4%5.381244751922835.651%49%44%63%8%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas331:391929%42%8.3811.323.31.3035.9
Ohio State331:5423.746%50%3.726.711.35.72.3026.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense358% (23)49% (44)41.7182.34.43 (95).1 (86)3.25 (40)68% (84)6% (16)0.72 (125)
OSU Defense350% (72)36% (41) - - - - -.06 (32)2.8 (73)73% (75)11% (48)0.82 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense347% (49)35% (38) - - - - -.19 (8)2.11 (16)45% (17)7% (110)0.44 (2)
OSU Offense351% (68)44% (73)34.31925.66 (49).13 (74)2.99 (69)67% (86)3% (2)0.86 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense341% (114)32% (122)16.329.3200.36.812.36 (34)3 (92)-.11 (132)1.5 (78)27% (38)21% (121).13 (111)5% (57)1.8 (100)
OSU Defense348% (54)31% (25) - - - - - - 2 (56)-.14 (10)1.2 (13)35% (41)16% (18)-.04 (15)5% (94)1.9 (57)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense353% (90)31% (24) - - - - - - 3 (28)- (21)1.2 (14)31% (88)13% (7)-.13 (7)8% (26)1.2 (1)
OSU Offense349% (67)63% (3)20.726.7283.310.613.79 (13)3 (92).52 (22)1.4 (104)20% (4)31% (70).46 (47)5% (65)1.9 (85)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 29.65 #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 15.74 #50
Texas's Defense Rating: -13.92 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #14
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.9 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 29.65   Ohio State: 32.315

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 18.8   Ohio State: 26.5




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.315 #2
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 31.72 #3
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -12.60 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.5 #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Texas Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 10.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 14

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 25
Texas 17


Total Points: 42

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 5.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 5.3

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Ohio State14Texas7Ohio StateOhio State -1.5Ohio State46.5Under
202401/10Texas14Ohio State28Ohio StateOhio State -6.5Ohio State51.5Under
200801/05Texas24Ohio State21Texas
200609/09Texas7Ohio State24Ohio State
200509/10Ohio State22Texas25Texas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State320 Overs
Texas202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 31 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams3 - 21 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#11) Texas Info
Power Rating: 29.65 #11
Offense Rating: 15.74 #50
Defense Rating: -13.92 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.9 #1
Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #6
Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.25 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 32%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 33%
Good in Scoring Position 2.58 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Texas Notes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, lots of talent. Top 10 via PFF?
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(5/19) Added QB Caldwell (Troy) post spring
(5/19) DL added 5 via portal, TE Endries (Cal) big add
(5/11) Least exp'd OL in SEC, only 1/5 starters back
(5/2) CB Muhammad, S Taaffe both top 10 via PFF

Texas Highlights
Texas has a really good defense (#25)
Texas defense does not give up big plays (#2)
Texas has a good pass defense (#24)
Texas Defensive Line is very good (#16)
Texas Secondary is very good (#26)
Texas defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Texas Deficiencies
Texas Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Texas offense is not Explosive (#132)
Texas offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#107)
Texas pass game is really bad (#122)
Texas offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatOSUTEX
OverallOver#6#29
OffenseOff#12#66
DefenseDef#10#6
Special TeamsST#38#58
PassingPass#4#56
RushingRush#31#45
Run BlockRBLK#26#59
Pass BlockPBLK#69#54
Route RunningWR Rt#14#74
TacklingTkl#54#24
Run DefenseR Def#13#8
Pass Rush DefPRush#19#5
Coverage DefCov#23#18

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State -1.5 (46.5)
Ohio State won vs Texas this year (14-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Texas last year (28-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TEX | OSU
Depth Chart: TEX | OSU
Rosters: TEX | OSU
(#2) Ohio State Info
Power Rating: 32.315 #2
Offense Rating: 31.72 #3
Defense Rating: -12.60 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.5 #3
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 11.1 #2
Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 63%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 33%
Great in Scoring Position 1.67 PPO
Good Run Def Success 36%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 3 - 0 (2 - 0 - 1 vs Spread)

Ohio State Notes
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
(5/24) Fr WR Quincy Porter looks like next great one
(4/4) Portal TE Klare (Pur) top 5 TE via PFF, huge add
(4/4) LB Sonny Styles a top 10 LB via PFF
(3/20) WR Smith/Tate best 1/2 in CFB? Many options
(3/20) OL 3/5 back, both T's new. 2 portal adds

Ohio State Highlights
Ohio State is Undefeated vs Spread
Ohio State in Undefeated
Ohio State is Undefeated at Home
Ohio State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Ohio State offense is efficent (#19)
Ohio State offense is good in red zone (#18)
Ohio State offense is good on 3rd downs
Ohio State has a really good defense (#24)
Ohio State defense does not give up big plays (#9)
Ohio State defense is really good in red zone (#8)
Ohio State has a good pass defense (#25)
Ohio State commits very few Penalties (#16)

Ohio State Deficiencies
Ohio State Does Not Stuff Runs (#101)


  
Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning478555%579636.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)2367%22007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Arch Manning2311234.920
CJ Baxter Jr.2411004.618
Jerrick Gibson2510204.114
Tre Wisner168005.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Livingstone8198324.883
Jack Endries (Tr)7106215.136
Ryan Wingo997110.828
DeAndre Moore Jr.63606.017

View Texas's Full Roster
Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Taaffe230000
Liona Lefau202001
Anthony Hill Jr.150000
Ty'Anthony Smith121000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maraad Watson (Tr)92200
Zina Umeozulu31110
Hero Kanu (Tr)72131
Colin Simmons51120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malik Muhammad80002
Xavier Filsaime00001
Liona Lefau202001

Ohio State's OC Brian Hartline
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin567179%7798311.0
Lincoln Kienholz6786%711010.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson18217112.164
CJ Donaldson (Tr)3315124.627
James Peoples2512605.017
Isaiah West84215.312
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith20315315.887
Carnell Tate12219318.349
Will Kacmarek467116.847
Jelani Thurman450112.526

View Ohio State's Full Roster
Ohio State's DC Matt Patricia
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arvell Reese202212
Jaylen McClain170001
Kayden McDonald142100
Caden Curry143211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arvell Reese202212
Caden Curry143211
Kayden McDonald142100
Beau Atkinson (Tr)42110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arvell Reese202212
Jaylen McClain170001
Caden Curry143211