Texas at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -1.5 (46.5) (-125) Open: -2.5 | 48.5
Ohio State 14 - Texas: 7

Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Ohio State -15.5 (SP+ OSU -14)
Projected Score: TEX: 16 - OSU: 31 (47)
OSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TEX Travel: 1066 miles, 1 hrs behind

Buckeyes (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TEX Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas at Ohio State	+1.5	46.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/6	Texas vs San José State	-37.0	52.5	W 38 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/13	Texas vs UTEP	-39.5	52.5	W 27 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/20	Texas vs Sam Houston	-39.5	51.5	W 55 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas at Florida	-4.5	42.5	L 21 - 29	O	N
Sat 10/11	Texas vs Oklahoma	-2.5	44.5	W 23 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Texas at Kentucky	-12.5	45.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/25	Texas at Mississippi State	-8.5	48.5	W 45 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/1	Texas vs Vanderbilt	-3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Texas at Georgia	+3.5	50.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/22	Texas vs Arkansas	-10.5	57.5	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Texas vs Texas A&M	+2.5	54.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Texas vs Michigan	-7.0	50.0	W 41 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ohio State vs Texas	-1.5	46.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio State vs Grambling	-55.5	62.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio State vs Ohio	-28.0	49.0	W 37 - 9	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Ohio State at Washington	-9.5	52.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-23.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Ohio State at Illinois	-15.5	51.5	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-24.5	41.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Ohio State vs Penn State	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Ohio State at Purdue	-29.5	49.5	W 34 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/15	Ohio State vs UCLA	-33.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Ohio State vs Rutgers	-29.0	54.0	W 42 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Ohio State at Michigan	-9.5	43.5	W 27 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/6	Ohio State vs Indiana	-5.5	48.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Wed 12/31	Ohio State vs Miami	-7.5	39.5	L 14 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX	#39 (.24)	46% (27)	30.5	49% (16)	2.95 (84)	152	44% (43)	241	4.03 (54)	#3 (-.01)	38% (22)	20.3	42% (61)	34% (7)	2.57 (3)	44.3	1.4	1.8
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)	33.4	48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)	9.3	39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Offense	16	30.5	19.8	46.3%	4.03	1.4	20	393	152	241	4.7	46%	54%	49%	44%	16%	.24
OSU Defense	16	9.3	7.4	36.3%	2.05	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	34%	19%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Defense	16	20.3	25.8	38%	2.57	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	42%	34%	21%	-.01
OSU Offense	16	33.4	41.6	51.8%	4.6	0.8	17	347	137	211	5	49%	50%	48%	56%	12%	.43

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas	16	26:42	19.8	43%	54%	5.4	44.3	1.4	1.8	6.2	2.5	1	31.4
Ohio State	16	24:27	16.9	42%	70%	3.4	31.6	0.8	1.1	5.1	2.4	2	28.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Offense	16	46% (98)	49% (16)	32.6	152.2	4.7	25 (41)	.13 (69)	2.95 (84)	67% (106)	11% (97)	0.91 (96)
OSU Defense	16	53% (90)	39% (26)	-	-	-	-	.01 (15)	2.9 (48)	67% (33)	13% (16)	0.87 (20)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Defense	16	50% (59)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (3)	2.79 (33)	55% (2)	14% (8)	0.72 (3)
OSU Offense	16	49% (77)	48% (19)	27.3	136.8	5	28 (25)	.31 (8)	3.37 (15)	76% (48)	7% (7)	1.11 (16)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Offense	16	54% (34)	44% (43)	19.6	29.5	240.9	8.2	12.3	35 (3)	12 (85)	.33 (34)	1.7 (28)	32% (71)	38% (9)	.51 (7)	5% (41)	2.1 (57)
OSU Defense	16	46% (35)	34% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.02 (2)	1.5 (28)	32% (74)	30% (66)	.16 (13)	6% (61)	1.7 (6)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Defense	16	50% (79)	34% (7)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (2)	.04 (3)	1.4 (14)	33% (53)	28% (35)	.14 (7)	8% (17)	1.6 (3)
OSU Offense	16	50% (60)	56% (1)	16.7	23.4	210.6	9	12.6	31 (6)	9 (48)	.58 (1)	1.6 (70)	27% (7)	37% (12)	.55 (6)	5% (42)	2.1 (41)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 17.89 #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65 #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2 #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 17.89 Ohio State: 32.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 16.2 Ohio State: 30.1

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.33 #2
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.53 #10
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -5.04 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 30.1 #2
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #13
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.7 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 31
Texas 16

Projected Total Points: 47

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Ohio State	14	Texas	7	Ohio State -1.5	Ohio State	46.5	Under
2024	01/10	Texas	14	Ohio State	28	Ohio State -6.5	Ohio State	51.5	Under
2008	01/05	Texas	24	Ohio State	21
2006	09/09	Texas	7	Ohio State	24
2005	09/10	Ohio State	22	Texas	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	3	2	0 Overs
Texas	2	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#14) TEX at (#2) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TEX	OSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#14	#2
SP+SP+	#17	#2
Perf GradeGrade	#13	#2
OffenseOff	#25	#2
DefenseDef	#25	#3
Spec TeamsST	#41	#21
TalentTal	#5	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#6	#2

Texas Notes(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report

Ohio State Notes(11/15) WR2 Carnell Tate out for season (calf injury)
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Ohio State Injury Report

Texas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#3
SuccessSuc	#27	#7
ExplosiveExp	#47	#15
PPAPPA	#39	#2
PowerPwr	#31	#1
SP+SP+	#30	#1
Pts POPPO	#54	#1
HavocHav	#77	#22

Texas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#55	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#26
Run ExplRExp	#96	#20
PPAExp	#69	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#84	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#97
TackleTak	-	#3

Texas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#11
Pass SuccessPSuc	#43	#8
Pass ExplPExl	#28	#28
PPAExp	#34	#2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#45	#44
F7 HavocF7	#97	#16
DB HavocDB	#41	#61

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#25
SuccessSuc	#3	#22
ExplosiveExp	#17	#1
PPAPPA	#1	#3
PowerPwr	#10	#14
SP+SP+	#13	#18
Pts POPPO	#15	#3
HavocHav	#14	#4

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#24	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#19	#61
Run ExplRExp	#16	#3
PPAExp	#8	#3
Run BlockR Blk	#8	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#33
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#31
TackleTak	-	#16

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#7
Pass ExplPExl	#70	#14
PPAExp	#1	#3
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#18
F7 HavocF7	#7	#8
DB HavocDB	#42	#17

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State -1.5 (46.5)
Ohio State won vs Texas this year (14-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Texas last year (14-7)
Ohio State beat Texas in 2024 (28-14)

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Arch Manning	248	404	61%	3163	26	7	7.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)	8	11	73%	85	1	0	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	131	597	3	4.6	48
Arch Manning	92	399	10	4.3	60
Christian Clark	55	236	2	4.3	22
CJ Baxter Jr.	54	196	0	3.6	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Wingo	54	834	7	15.4	75
DeAndre Moore Jr.	38	532	4	14.0	46
Parker Livingstone	29	516	6	17.8	83
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)	28	408	3	14.6	40

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jelani McDonald	80	4	0	1	3
Michael Taaffe	70	1	1	0	1
Anthony Hill Jr.	70	7	4	5	1
Liona Lefau	68	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	43	16	12	15	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	70	7	4	5	1
Brad Spence (Tr)	21	6	3	2	0
Ethan Burke	40	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kade Phillips	22	2	0	0	6
Graceson Littleton	46	3	0	0	6
Malik Muhammad	30	3	1	1	4

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Sayin	301	391	77%	3610	32	8	9.2
Lincoln Kienholz	11	14	79%	139	1	0	9.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bo Jackson	179	1090	6	6.1	64
CJ Donaldson (Tr)	96	361	10	3.8	27
James Peoples	61	344	3	5.6	49
Isaiah West	59	310	2	5.3	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	87	1243	12	14.3	87
Carnell Tate	51	875	9	17.2	57
Max Klare (Tr)	43	448	2	10.4	39
Brandon Inniss	36	271	3	7.5	29

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sonny Styles	83	7	1	4	3
Arvell Reese	69	10	7	5	2
Caleb Downs	68	5	1	1	1
Caden Curry	66	17	11	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Curry	66	17	11	8	2
Kenyatta Jackson	28	11	7	2	2
Arvell Reese	69	10	7	5	2
Eddrick Houston	21	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	52	1	0	0	6
Sonny Styles	83	7	1	4	3
Jaylen McClain	53	0	0	0	3