Boise State at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo (#25)Boise State Broncos at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Thursday, August 28th 2025 (5:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -8.5 (63.5) (-310)  Open: -8.5 | 63.5
South Florida 34 - Boise State: 7

 
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (7 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: South Florida -1.5   (SP+ BSU -3.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 27 - USF: 28 (55)
BSU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
BSU Travel: 2154 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (34 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-27
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-23
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+3.5
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-14.5
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis+14
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-6
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy+0.5
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-15.5
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-16.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
USF#86 (.15)33% (129)21.328% (134)2.62 (102)9537% (106)2704 (67)#76 (.15)43% (93)2447% (107)40% (69)3.79 (80)48.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense229747.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19
USF Defense324743%3.792 - - - - - 46%53%47%40%13%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense2243429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
USF Offense321.33433.3%40.717365952703.443%57%28%37%16%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
South Florida324:2816.737%40%648.70.724.71026.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)
USF Defense346% (44)47% (107) - - - - .08 (77)3.2 (111)80% (107)8% (94)0.75 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
USF Offense343% (111)28% (134)28953.43 (95)-.03 (114)2.62 (102)78% (41)9% (70)1.36 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)
USF Defense353% (86)40% (69) - - - - - - 3 (28).26 (82)1.5 (62)30% (96)35% (107).3 (78)5% (85)1.4 (11)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
USF Offense357% (23)37% (106)21.3342707.912.73 (90)1 (23).29 (69)1.6 (54)41% (131)22% (120).31 (76)7% (113)2.6 (5)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 5.30   South Florida: 6.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.9   South Florida: 0.4




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 6.245 #64
South Florida's Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 28
Boise State 27


Total Points: 55

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/28South Florida34Boise State7South FloridaBoise State -8.5South Florida63.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida110 Overs
Boise State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSFBSU
OverallOver#104#53
OffenseOff#100#40
DefenseDef#103#62
Special TeamsST#109#85
PassingPass#70#64
RushingRush#85#21
Run BlockRBLK#114#17
Pass BlockPBLK#66#72
Route RunningWR Rt#93#72
TacklingTkl#114#110
Run DefenseR Def#110#66
Pass Rush DefPRush#96#64
Coverage DefCov#62#51

Rematch from Week 1
Boise State 8.5 (63.5)
South Florida won vs Boise State this year (34-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | USF
Depth Chart: BSU | USF
Rosters: BSU | USF
(#64) South Florida Info
Power Rating: 6.245 #64
Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91
Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 33%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Awful Run Success 28%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

South Florida Notes
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff

South Florida Highlights
South Florida is Undefeated at Home
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

South Florida offense is explosive (#14)
South Florida does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#21)

South Florida has a great TO Margin (#28)
South Florida defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

South Florida Deficiencies
South Florida Can Not Run the Ball (#123)
South Florida offense is really bad (#129)
South Florida run game is really bad (#134)
South Florida pass game is really bad (#106)
South Florida does not Sack the QB (#112)
South Florida has a bad defensive line (#111)


  
Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown599662%747217.8
Gaston Moore (Tr)4580%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown4411122.523
Alvon Isaac1410807.749
Cartevious Norton (Tr)154913.38
Sam Franklin (Tr)81902.45
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chas Nimrod (Tr)10248024.855
Keshaun Singleton9207223.066
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)87509.430
Alvon Isaac774010.629

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Mac Harris262220
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris262220
Ricardo Watson152110
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001