Boise State at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at South Florida Bulls

Thursday, August 28th 2025 (1:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -9.0 (63.5) (0) Open: -9.5 | 63.5
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (34 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Our Line: Boise State -6.5 (SP+ BSU -12.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 34 - USF: 28 (61)
BSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
BSU Travel: 2154 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#46)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
USF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Boise State at South Florida	-9.0	63.5
Sat 9/6	Boise State vs Eastern Washington	-33
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Boise State at Air Force	-20
Sat 9/27	Boise State vs App State	-26
Sat 10/4	Boise State at Notre Dame	+19
Sat 10/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-28.5
Sat 10/18	Boise State vs UNLV	-17
Sat 10/25	Boise State at Nevada	-24.5
Sat 11/1	Boise State vs Fresno State	-19
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Boise State at San Diego State	-19.5
Sat 11/22	Boise State vs Colorado State	-21.5
Sat 11/29	Boise State at Utah State	-23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	South Florida vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+21.5
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+22
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-24
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-23.5
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	-6
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-17
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	+3.5
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-2
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-2.5
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-12.5
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-20

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)	37.3	49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)	22.6	39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	37.3	34.3	48.3%	4.83	0.6	22	437	234	204	6.5	55%	44%	49%	48%	12%	.36
USF Defense	13	29.8	27.2	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	22.6	24.5	38.2%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	39%	37%	20%	.16
USF Offense	13	32.2	33.6	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	29:25	21.6	49%	71%	4.5	39.8	0.6	1.1	7.4	3.6	3	30.1
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	55% (31)	49% (17)	36.2	233.5	6.5	42 (3)	.32 (6)	3.22 (39)	86% (3)	7% (10)	1.22 (5)
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	43% (3)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.13 (72)	2.8 (34)	62% (12)	15% (3)	1.1 (113)
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44% (103)	48% (12)	17	27.1	203.9	7.5	12	22 (46)	4 (1)	.41 (12)	1.5 (119)	29% (23)	35% (28)	.37 (55)	6% (58)	1.9 (111)
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	57% (133)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.18 (42)	1.7 (96)	36% (10)	30% (62)	.41 (105)	6% (83)	2.3 (124)
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 9.78 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.78 South Florida: 3.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.2 South Florida: -3.5

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 3.045 #52
South Florida's Offense Rating: 16.83 #48
South Florida's Defense Rating: 12.24 #55
2025 Talent Rating: 848.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #61
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #77
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #44
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 528.57
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 34
South Florida 28

Projected Total Points: 61

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Florida	0	0	0 Overs
Boise State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#37) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.78 #37
Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53
Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Boise State Notes
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs
(3/22) DE Vergin-Morgan, CB McCoy, S Benefield good
(3/22) OC Potter promoted after Koetter retired
(3/22) HC Danielson lost 1 game outside of bowls

Boise State Ratings Matchup South Florida

Power #37

#52

Off #24

#48

Def #56

#55

Talent #68

#32

SP+ #33

#77

SP+ Off #15

#44

SP+ Def #53

#107

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | USF
Depth Chart: BSU | USF
Rosters: BSU | USF

(#52) South Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.045 #52
Offense Rating: 16.83 #48
Defense Rating: 12.24 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 848.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #61
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 38%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

South Florida Notes
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff

Boise State's OC Nate Potter

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Max Cutforth	2	2	100%	13	0	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Malik Sherrod (Tr)	60	196	4	3.3	48
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Austin Bolt	16	196	4	12.3	44
Chase Penry	14	164	0	11.7	42

View Boise State's Full Roster

Boise State's DC Erik Chinander

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12
Marco Notarainni	60	8	4	3	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0
Marco Notarainni	60	8	4	3	3
Max Stege	14	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Jeremiah Earby	34	1	0	6
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cartevious Norton (Tr)	129	525	7	4.1	62
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42
Bryce Archie	68	137	2	2.0	35
Sam Franklin (Tr)	18	132	0	7.3	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Joshua Porter	24	210	0	8.8	32
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)	13	155	2	11.9	38
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	10	121	0	12.1	27

View South Florida's Full Roster

South Florida's DC Todd Orlando

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Rocco Nicholl (Tr)	61	1	0	3	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Chavez Brown (Tr)	49	8	4	1	0
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Ira Singleton	12	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
De'Shawn Rucker	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy (Tr)	30	0	0	5