Boise State at South Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Thursday, August 28th 2025 (5:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -8.5 (63.5) (-310)  Open: -8.5 | 63.5
South Florida 34 - Boise State: 7

 
Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: South Florida -12  (SP+ USF -9)
Projected Score: BSU: 24 - USF: 36 (60)
BSU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
BSU Travel: 2154 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+9.555.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)29.949% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)24.139% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)40.539% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)23.438% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1429.919.848.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36
USF Defense1323.414.339.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1424.123.838.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
USF Offense1340.55138.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 0.57  #66
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41  #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84  #60
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 0.57   South Florida: 13.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.1   South Florida: 11.6




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 13.91  #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51  #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29  #53
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 36
Boise State 24


Projected Total Points: 60
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/28South Florida34Boise State7Boise State -8.5South Florida63.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida110 Overs
Boise State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#66) BSU at (#40) USF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUUSF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #40
SP+SP+ #64 #29
Perf GradeGrade #86 #38
OffenseOff #81 #27
DefenseDef #77 #61
Spec TeamsST #54 #85
TalentTal #77 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Boise State Notes
(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUSF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #61
SuccessSuc #12 #36
ExplosiveExp #37 #115
PPAPPA #3 #66
PowerPwr #68 #53
SP+SP+ #55 #62
Pts POPPO #4 #88
HavocHav #20 #15
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #23 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #17
Run ExplRExp #5 #121
PPAExp #6 #26
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #18
Stuff RateStuff #58 #10
TackleTak -  #132
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #92 #71
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #69
Pass ExplPExl #119 #78
PPAExp #12 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #116 #8
F7 HavocF7 #10 #11
DB HavocDB #58 #46
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffBSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #77
SuccessSuc #118 #27
ExplosiveExp #10 #119
PPAPPA #83 #59
PowerPwr #18 #60
SP+SP+ #12 #60
Pts POPPO #74 #24
HavocHav #57 #7
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #19 #123
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #33
Run ExplRExp #3 #113
PPAExp #32 #72
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #34
Stuff RateStuff #45 #21
TackleTak -  #134
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUSF OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #8 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #29
Pass ExplPExl #109 #96
PPAExp #113 #42
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #82
F7 HavocF7 #62 #3
DB HavocDB #68 #83
Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 87° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Boise State 8.5 (63.5)
South Florida won vs Boise State this year (34-7)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Boise State last year (34-7)

  
BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8541844.944
Maddux Madsen578141.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples51616312.134
Chris Marshall30574219.146
Chase Penry30394113.146
Matt Lauter3733028.920

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield1059013
Marco Notarainni776382
Zion Washington663112
Boen Phelps664150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Braxton Fely247650
Sterling Lane63310
Malakai Williams (Tr)114370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby602109
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey (Tr)387115

USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104