Boise State at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (7 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
BSU coming off BYE
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -7.5   (SP+ BSU -13)

Projected Score: BSU: 29 - SDSU: 21 (50)
BSU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (42 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+12.548.5
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois+1
Sat 10/4 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.5
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State+2
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-2.5
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-1
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State+7.5
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-6
Sat 11/29 San Diego State at New Mexico-7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
SDSU#90 (.14)40% (95)27.549% (44)3.25 (43)15531% (126)1854.36 (49)#28 ()33% (21)1838% (66)28% (14)3.78 (77)51.500
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense229747.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19
SDSU Defense2181832.8%3.780 - - - - - 46%54%38%28%11%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense2243429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
SDSU Offense227.54240.4%4.360173341551853.754%45%49%31%13%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
San Diego State231:091734%50%6.551.50041.5031.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)
SDSU Defense246% (39)38% (66) - - - - .01 (51)2.89 (79)62% (39)6% (121)0.81 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
SDSU Offense254% (47)49% (44)421553.75 (62).18 (54)3.25 (43)80% (36)6% (27)0.79 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)
SDSU Defense254% (100)28% (14) - - - - - - 0-.01 (20)1.2 (12)34% (61)11% (4)-.1 (9)5% (91)1.7 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
SDSU Offense245% (90)31% (126)15.529.5184.56.311.92 (102)0 (1).12 (111)2 (9)32% (92)30% (85).25 (88)6% (96)2.1 (51)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 5.30   San Diego State: -2.86

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.9   San Diego State: -8.9




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -2.86 #83
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 29
San Diego State 21


Total Points: 50

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/01Boise State56San Diego State24Boise StateBoise State -24.5Boise State55.5Over
202309/22San Diego State31Boise State34Boise StateBoise State -6.5San Diego State46.0Over
202209/30Boise State35San Diego State13Boise StateBoise State -6Boise State38.0Over
202111/26San Diego State27Boise State16San Diego StateBoise State -3San Diego State44.0Under
201810/06Boise State13San Diego State19San Diego StateBoise State -13.5San Diego State50.0Under
201710/14San Diego State14Boise State31Boise StateSan Diego State -5.5Boise State47.0Under
201411/15Boise State38San Diego State29Boise StateBoise State -15San Diego State0
201311/23San Diego State34Boise State31San Diego StateBoise State -6San Diego State0
201211/03Boise State19San Diego State21San Diego State
201111/19San Diego State35Boise State52Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State453 Overs
Boise State633 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 55 - 32 - 33 - 0
Road Teams5 - 53 - 50 - 33 - 2

(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boise State has lost 7 straight
Boise State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSDSUBSU
OverallOver#39#53
OffenseOff#61#40
DefenseDef#26#62
Special TeamsST#62#85
PassingPass#60#64
RushingRush#52#21
Run BlockRBLK#46#17
Pass BlockPBLK#90#72
Route RunningWR Rt#56#72
TacklingTkl#40#110
Run DefenseR Def#27#66
Pass Rush DefPRush#42#64
Coverage DefCov#40#51

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat San Diego State last year (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2022 (35-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | SDSU
Depth Chart: BSU | SDSU
Rosters: BSU | SDSU
(#83) San Diego State Info
Power Rating: -2.86 #83
Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

San Diego State has lost 8 straight
San Diego State has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

San Diego State Notes
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
(7/12) WR Kitt-Denton (FCS) avg'd 18.1 ypc at NW St
(5/23) New DC Aurich (DC @ Idaho) an improvement
(5/23) Portals look decent, losses mostly went down
(5/2) RB light, Washington (CCU) decent add.
(5/2) WR Napier back, v good. Some depth
(3/29) QB Dengal (Mich) vs Emanuel Jr (CMU)

San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State is Undefeated at Home
San Diego State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

San Diego State has a really good defense (#21)
San Diego State defense does not give up big plays (#10)
San Diego State has a good pass defense (#14)
San Diego State has a great TO Margin (#1)
San Diego State commits very few Penalties (#30)
San Diego State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State Can Not Run the Ball (#121)
San Diego State pass game is really bad (#126)
San Diego State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
San Diego State does not Sack the QB (#112)


  
Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001

San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)285551%340206.2
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3475%29007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton3818824.920
Christian Washington (Tr)104914.927
Byron Cardwell72804.014
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)62604.310
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Bostick (Tr)6101216.835
Jordan Napier108708.723
Mikey Welsh144044.044
Donovan Brown54308.644

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Rob Aurich
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli190020
Owen Chambliss152111
Chris Johnson90022
Bryce Phillips80000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
August Salvati (Tr)32200
Owen Chambliss152111
Jared Badie11110
Tano Letuli190020
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley61003
Chris Johnson90022
Owen Chambliss152111