Boise State at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (10:30 PM EST)
San Diego State -1.5 (41.5) (-125)  Open: -1.5
San Diego State 17 - Boise State: 7  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Light Rain Predicted
BSU coming off BYE
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -5  (SP+ SDSU -2)

Projected Score: BSU: 18 - SDSU: 23 (41)
SDSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
BSU Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+9.555.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#52 (.2)42% (84)29.942% (84)3.1 (39)17940% (87)2453.7 (67)#52 (.12)36% (13)24.141% (53)33% (7)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
SDSU#94 (.13)42% (72)26.446% (40)3.38 (9)17436% (121)1423.42 (94)#4 (-.01)35% (9)15.438% (19)33% (4)2.42 (4)500.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1429.919.841.5%3.71.5224241792454.651%48%42%40%14%.2
SDSU Defense1315.46.834.8%2.421.2 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1424.123.836.4%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
SDSU Offense1326.431.241.9%3.420.9163151741424.661%37%46%36%13%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1432:5122.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
San Diego State1328:101632%50%5.5500.91.24.62.5431.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1451% (56)42% (84)39.3179.44.629 (30).15 (49)3.1 (39)79% (23)8% (34)1 (56)
SDSU Defense1348% (44)38% (19) - - - - .05 (45)3.03 (98)62% (12)8% (113)0.98 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1452% (95)41% (53) - - - - .19 (119)2.98 (90)67% (39)11% (26)1.22 (134)
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)38.2173.84.620 (70).16 (44)3.38 (9)81% (14)7% (23)0.87 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1448% (79)40% (87)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).25 (65)1.6 (46)33% (102)31% (62).26 (84)6% (67)1.8 (126)
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (7).06 (3)7% (24)1.8 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1446% (42)33% (7) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (117)37% (6)28% (46).21 (32)6% (81)2.1 (87)
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)11.419.5142.17.312.59 (106)8 (7).09 (127)1.7 (19)30% (44)20% (136).04 (133)6% (50)1.8 (121)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 0.70  #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 8.28  #70
Boise State's Defense Rating: 7.58  #66
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7  #55
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #56
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 0.70   San Diego State: 7.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.7   San Diego State: 6.2




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 7.895  #54
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 2.04  #114
San Diego State's Defense Rating: -2.55  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #100
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 23
Boise State 18


Total Points: 41

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 19
San Diego State 18

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 26
Boise State 18

Total Points: 44
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15San Diego State17Boise State7San Diego State -1.5San Diego State41.5Under
202411/01Boise State56San Diego State24Boise State -24.5Boise State55.5Over
202309/22San Diego State31Boise State34Boise State -6.5San Diego State46.0Over
202209/30Boise State35San Diego State13Boise State -6Boise State38.0Over
202111/26San Diego State27Boise State16Boise State -3San Diego State44.0Under
201810/06Boise State13San Diego State19Boise State -13.5San Diego State50.0Under
201710/14San Diego State14Boise State31San Diego State -5.5Boise State47.0Under
201411/15Boise State38San Diego State29Boise State -15San Diego State0
201311/23San Diego State34Boise State31Boise State -6San Diego State0
201211/03Boise State19San Diego State21
201111/19San Diego State35Boise State52
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State563 Overs
Boise State634 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 56 - 33 - 33 - 0
Road Teams5 - 63 - 60 - 33 - 3

(#67) BSU at (#54) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUSDSU
Power RatePwr #67 #54
SP+SP+ #55 #50
Perf GradeGrade #83 #12
OffenseOff #80 #63
DefenseDef #73 #8
Spec TeamsST #64 #43
TalentTal #77 #95
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
Boise State Notes
(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Perf GradePerf #80 #8
SuccessSuc #84 #9
ExplosiveExp #49 #30
PPAPPA #52 #4
PowerPwr #70 #24
SP+SP+ #56 #15
Pts POPPO #67 #4
HavocHav #48 #75
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #27 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #19
Run ExplRExp #56 #78
PPAExp #49 #45
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #98
Stuff RateStuff #34 #108
TackleTak -  #16
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #97 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #87 #4
Pass ExplPExl #46 #16
PPAExp #65 #2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #119 #35
F7 HavocF7 #34 #113
DB HavocDB #67 #24
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffBSU Def
Perf GradePerf #63 #73
SuccessSuc #72 #13
ExplosiveExp #123 #128
PPAPPA #94 #52
PowerPwr #114 #66
SP+SP+ #100 #47
Pts POPPO #94 #111
HavocHav #27 #50
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #34 #125
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #53
Run ExplRExp #110 #134
PPAExp #44 #119
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #90
Stuff RateStuff #13 #66
TackleTak -  #132
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #105 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #7
Pass ExplPExl #19 #117
PPAExp #127 #7
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #83
F7 HavocF7 #23 #26
DB HavocDB #50 #81
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 60° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 12
San Diego State -1.5 (41.5)
San Diego State won vs Boise State this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat San Diego State last year (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2022 (35-13)

  
BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1961125105.777
Sire Gaines16181485.146
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8441645.044
Maddux Madsen578141.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples51616312.134
Chris Marshall30574219.146
Chase Penry30394113.146
Matt Lauter3733028.920

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield1059013
Marco Notarainni787482
Boen Phelps664150
Zion Washington653112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely247650
Jayden Virgin55125120
Marco Notarainni787482
Sterling Lane63310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby602109
Sherrod Smith131006
Jaden Mickey (Tr)387115

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Dwayne McDougle (Tr)472003
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036