Michigan State at Nebraska Game Matchup
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska CornhuskersNebraska logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, NE  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
MSU coming off BYE
NEB coming off BYE
Our Line: Nebraska -11   (SP+ NEB -9)
Projected Score: MSU: 17 - NEB: 28 (44)
NEB Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 643 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cornhuskers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Rhule (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 24 - 20 (29 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-17.50.0
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-26.5
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+11
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-3
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+12
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+15.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+23.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+11
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-8.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Nebraska's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Nebraska vs Cincinnati-6.550.5
Sat 9/6 Nebraska vs Akron-33.5
Sat 9/13 Nebraska vs Houston Christian-35.5
Sat 9/20 Nebraska vs Michigan+7
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nebraska vs Michigan State-11
Sat 10/11 Nebraska at Maryland-12
Sat 10/18 Nebraska at Minnesota+0.5
Sat 10/25 Nebraska vs Northwestern-16.5
Sat 11/1 Nebraska vs USC-3.5
Sat 11/8 Nebraska at UCLA-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Nebraska at Penn State+19.5
Fri 11/28 Nebraska vs Iowa-3

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nebraska's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
NEB#74 (.18)45% (37)23.548% (22)3.21 (40)12143% (55)2103.38 (114)#44 (.13)40% (50)19.539% (24)42% (82)3.06 (11)48.91.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1219.317.841.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13
NEB Defense1319.515.740.3%3.061.2 - - - - - 47%52%39%42%18%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1226.12841.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
NEB Offense1323.529.145%3.381.3203311212103.848%51%48%43%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Nebraska1329:4320.143%32%5.748.91.31.25.72327.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)
NEB Defense1347% (29)39% (24) - - - - -.01 (9)2.72 (26)69% (40)12% (33)0.9 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
NEB Offense1348% (80)48% (22)31.7121.13.820 (67).18 (38)3.21 (40)83% (8)10% (71)0.89 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)
NEB Defense1352% (101)42% (82) - - - - - - 11 (52).28 (88)1.6 (89)33% (52)31% (80).37 (96)6% (55)2.2 (98)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
NEB Offense1351% (57)43% (55)20.331209.56.810.312 (118)11 (72).21 (91)1.4 (132)28% (18)34% (45).31 (79)6% (67)1.8 (125)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.35 #49
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 6.35   Nebraska: 14.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -0.2   Nebraska: 8.9




Nebraska's Power Ratings
Nebraska's Power Rating: 14.26 #21
Nebraska's Offense Rating: 21.32 #29
Nebraska's Defense Rating: 6.70 #24
2025 Talent Rating: 990.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 22 #23
Nebraska's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Nebraska's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #34
Nebraska's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Nebraska's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Nebraska 28
Michigan State 17

Projected Total Points: 44
Nebraska Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.1
Defense: 19.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

Nebraska's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Michigan State20Nebraska17Michigan StateNebraska -3Michigan State34.5Over
202109/25Michigan State23Nebraska20Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Nebraska55.0Under
201811/17Nebraska9Michigan State6NebraskaNebraska -1.5Nebraska48.5Under
201511/07Nebraska39Michigan State38NebraskaMichigan State -4.5Nebraska55.5Over
201410/04Michigan State27Nebraska22Michigan StateMichigan State -8Nebraska0
201311/16Nebraska28Michigan State41Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Michigan State0
201211/03Michigan State24Nebraska28Nebraska
201110/29Nebraska24Michigan State3Nebraska
200312/29Nebraska17Michigan State3Nebraska
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nebraska542 Overs
Michigan State422 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 23 - 31 - 22 - 1
Road Teams2 - 73 - 31 - 22 - 1

(#49) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.35 #49
Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32
Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Michigan State Notes
(5/21) OL looks pretty bad outside OG Gulbin (Wake)
(5/21) If Chiles improves they have WR/TE weapons
(5/21) Def 14 portal adds, 5 DL & 7 DBs
(5/7) WR Fr Marsh big find LY, sneaky great portal adds
(5/7) OL 2/5 back. Awful LY, 3 portal adds, Moore huge
(5/7) RB - Tullis & Frazier lead, not much exp. 1 portal
(4/4) TE Velling a big target, top 10 TE via PFF
(3/19) Def OK LY, need playmakers/pass rush
(3/19) Year 2 for HC Smith, need to show progress
(3/18) QB Chiles must improve, limit TO's
Michigan State     Ratings Matchup     Nebraska
Power #49
#21
Off #53
#29
Def #36
#24
Talent #37
#12
SP+ #64
#34
SP+ Off #107
#75
SP+ Def #32
#17

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Nebraska in 2023 (20-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | NEB
Depth Chart: MSU | NEB
Rosters: MSU | NEB
(#21) Nebraska Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.26 #21
Offense Rating: 21.32 #29
Defense Rating: 6.70 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #34
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Talent Rating: 990.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 22 #23
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Nebraska Notes
(5/16) OL returns good prod, added 35% via portal
(5/2) DL is a concern, lost all 4 starters. 3 portal adds
(4/5) WR Barney a weapon, Key (UK)/Hunter (Cal) big
(4/5) RB Johnson looks good, do they have depth?
(3/28) Holgo wants tempo/pace. Ball out quick
(3/19) QB Raiola, 13 TD/18 TO. Must improve TY
(3/19) OL 3/5 back. 2 portals (Bama/ND) help. Avg LY
(3/19) Def was good LY, 5 portal adds. New DC
(3/19) OC Holgorsen much better than Satterfield
(3/19) DC Butler a journeyman, replaces White (UF)


  
Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles19232459%241513127.5
Alessio Milivojevic010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Aidan Chiles9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Makhi Frazier72103.08
Brandon Tullis72002.99
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omari Kelly (Tr)53869416.471
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)40705917.668
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Jack Velling36411111.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nikai Martinez513012
Malik Spencer441002
Tracy Revels (Tr)400021
David Santiago (Tr)375423
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Isaac Smith (Tr)314310
Alex VanSumeren163200
Ben Roberts82100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)242115
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Malcolm Bell (Tr)261003

Nebraska's OC Dana Holgorsen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Raiola27440967%280613116.9
Heinrich Haarberg101856%101015.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmett Johnson11759815.142
Jacory Barney Jr.10130313.031
Heinrich Haarberg2510214.113
Janiran Bonner21115.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key (Tr)47715215.242
Nyziah Hunter (Tr)40578514.560
Jacory Barney Jr.5544708.140
Emmett Johnson3827327.229

View Nebraska's Full Roster
Nebraska's DC John Butler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Watson-Trent (Tr)1188221
DeShon Singleton711003
Malcolm Hartzog452004
Ceyair Wright391116
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Watson-Trent (Tr)1188221
Ceyair Wright391116
Mason Goldman51100
Vincent Shavers Jr.253100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ceyair Wright391116
Marques Buford351005
Malcolm Hartzog452004