Michigan State at Nebraska - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska CornhuskersNebraska logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Nebraska -12.5 (48.5) (-485)  Open: -10.0
Nebraska 38 - Michigan State: 27  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Wind: 25.5 MPH
MSU coming off BYE
NEB coming off BYE
Our Line: Nebraska -4  (SP+ NEB -10)

Projected Score: MSU: 25 - NEB: 29 (55)
NEB Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
MSU Travel: 643 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cornhuskers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Matt Rhule (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 29 - 25 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 5.9 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Nebraska's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Nebraska vs Cincinnati-6.552.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Nebraska vs Akron-34.047.5W 68 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Nebraska vs Houston Christian-48.558.5W 59 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Nebraska vs Michigan+1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nebraska vs Michigan State-12.548.5W 38 - 27ON
Sat 10/11 Nebraska at Maryland-7.047.5W 34 - 31ON
Fri 10/17 Nebraska at Minnesota-7.047.5L 6 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Nebraska vs Northwestern-7.544.5W 28 - 21ON
Sat 11/1 Nebraska vs USC+4.559.5L 17 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Nebraska at UCLA+1.545.5W 28 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Nebraska at Penn State+7.545.5L 10 - 37ON
Fri 11/28 Nebraska vs Iowa+5.538.5L 16 - 40ON
Wed 12/31 Nebraska vs Utah+13.551.5L 22 - 44ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nebraska's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
NEB#75 (.16)47% (21)28.748% (19)3.19 (23)13546% (29)2113.91 (51)#85 (.18)42% (73)24.646% (112)37% (21)4.19 (117)40.80.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
NEB#74 (.18)45% (37)48% (22)3.21 (40)12143% (55)2103.38 (114)#44 (.13)40% (50)39% (24)42% (82)3.06 (11)48.91.31.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12
NEB Defense1324.620.942%4.191 - - - - - 55%43%46%37%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
NEB Offense1328.736.146.9%3.910.8193461352114.349%49%48%46%13%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Nebraska1328:081945%36%4.240.80.814.61.5232.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)
NEB Defense1355% (122)46% (112) - - - - .24 (132)3.23 (121)78% (115)10% (49)1.14 (131)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
NEB Offense1349% (70)48% (19)31.4135.54.318 (60).11 (69)3.19 (23)76% (45)9% (54)0.78 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)
NEB Defense1343% (11)37% (21) - - - - - - 6 (100).15 (30)1.4 (20)31% (71)33% (114).39 (113)5% (122)1.9 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
NEB Offense1349% (71)46% (29)18.826.9210.67.811.222 (14)6 (60).24 (75)1.4 (126)25% (5)33% (41).41 (31)4% (12)2 (82)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.61  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 8.61   Nebraska: 6.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.3   Nebraska: 6.6




Nebraska's Power Ratings
Nebraska's Power Rating: 6.555  #64
Nebraska's Offense Rating: 6.53  #83
Nebraska's Defense Rating: 5.02  #46
2025 Talent Rating: 986.00  #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 27  #22
Nebraska's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 5.9
Nebraska's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6  #46
Nebraska's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #60
Nebraska's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3  #39

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Nebraska 29
Michigan State 25


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Nebraska 42
Michigan State 24

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Nebraska 32
Michigan State 23

Total Points: 55
Nebraska Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.9

Nebraska's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Nebraska38Michigan State27Nebraska -12.5Michigan State48.5Over
202311/04Michigan State20Nebraska17Nebraska -3Michigan State34.5Over
202109/25Michigan State23Nebraska20Michigan State -3.5Nebraska55.0Under
201811/17Nebraska9Michigan State6Nebraska -1.5Nebraska48.5Under
201511/07Nebraska39Michigan State38Michigan State -4.5Nebraska55.5Over
201410/04Michigan State27Nebraska22Michigan State -8Nebraska0
201311/16Nebraska28Michigan State41Michigan State -3.5Michigan State0
201211/03Michigan State24Nebraska28
201110/29Nebraska24Michigan State3
200312/29Nebraska17Michigan State3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nebraska643 Overs
Michigan State432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 23 - 41 - 32 - 1
Road Teams2 - 84 - 31 - 23 - 1

(#46) MSU at (#64) NEB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUNEB
Power RatePwr #46 #64
SP+SP+ #84 #46
Perf GradeGrade #94 #35
OffenseOff #65 #43
DefenseDef #107 #60
Spec TeamsST #134 #2
TalentTal #30 #14
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #22
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Nebraska Notes
(12/31) Has lost 30 straight games to ranked opponents.
(12/1) DC John Butler fired after only one season
(11/29) Neb has lost 4+ games every season for 22 years
(11/28) Rhule 2-4 since raise, 7 pt W's vs NW/UCLA. Yikes
(11/28) QB TJ Lateef dreadful vs Iowa. Neb needs portal QB '26
(11/28) Matt Rhule is 2-10 in November at Nebraska
(11/26) QB Raiola threatening portal again. Neb better w/o him
(11/22) Loss to Penn St a huge setback. Program going ?
(11/2) Rhule 0-19 vs top 25, Neb streak is now 0-29
(11/2) QB1 Raiola out for season (broken fibula).
(11/1) Hard L vs USC, Raiola inj, Run Def mauled
(10/29) Rhule signs extension, will remain at Nebraska
Nebraska Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffNEB Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #60
SuccessSuc #77 #73
ExplosiveExp #96 #84
PPAPPA #98 #85
PowerPwr #45 #46
SP+SP+ #74 #39
Pts POPPO #64 #117
HavocHav #115 #98
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffNEB Def
Run GameRun #62 #68
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #112
Run ExplRExp #72 #131
PPAExp #95 #132
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #121
Stuff RateStuff #133 #107
TackleTak -  #23
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffNEB Def
Pass GamePass #91 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #21
Pass ExplPExl #112 #20
PPAExp #73 #30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #121 #126
F7 HavocF7 #132 #49
DB HavocDB #24 #122
Nebraska on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatNEB OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #43 #107
SuccessSuc #21 #116
ExplosiveExp #134 #26
PPAPPA #75 #103
PowerPwr #83 #50
SP+SP+ #60 #85
Pts POPPO #51 #95
HavocHav #25 #111
Nebraska Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
NEB OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #79 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #19 #123
Run ExplRExp #130 #44
PPAExp #69 #101
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #23 #65
Stuff RateStuff #17 #104
TackleTak -  #51
Nebraska Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatNEB OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #93 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #29 #101
Pass ExplPExl #126 #33
PPAExp #75 #102
Pass Block/RushP Blk #18 #104
F7 HavocF7 #54 #97
DB HavocDB #12 #115
Program Comparison
NEB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 88° - Wind: 26 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Nebraska -12.5 (48.5)
Nebraska won vs Michigan State this year (38-27)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Nebraska in 2023 (20-17)

  
MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012

NEB's OC Dana Holgorsen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Raiola18125072%20001868.0
TJ Lateef599562%722407.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmett Johnson2511451125.870
Kwinten Ives1611927.428
TJ Lateef279833.614
Isaiah Mozee198304.421
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nyziah Hunter (Tr)43617514.364
Jacory Barney Jr.43463410.852
Dane Key (Tr)35424512.140
Emmett Johnson4637038.056

View Nebraska's Full Roster

NEB's DC John Butler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javin Wright838223
DeShon Singleton704124
Rex Guthrie602001
Vincent Shavers Jr.528110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Williams Nwaneri (Tr)275351
Dasan Mccullough (Tr)215231
Kade Pietrzak145231
Keona Davis304211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ceyair Wright251105
DeShon Singleton704124
Donovan Jones512004