Arizona State at Duke - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo Arizona State Sun Devils vs Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Wednesday, December 31st 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Duke -4 (49.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Duke 42 - Arizona State: 39  (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl)

 
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Arizona State -2  (SP+ -0)

Projected Score: ASU: 27 - DUKE: 25 (53)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ASU Travel: 1873 miles, 2 hrs behind
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#87 (.14)40% (101)25.843% (71)2.98 (61)17438% (108)1953.32 (109)#32 (.09)40% (48)24.540% (50)39% (45)3.32 (38)55.21.41.1
DUKE#26 (.25)46% (32)34.644% (61)2.77 (105)12347% (22)2624.28 (28)#120 (.25)44% (99)29.443% (80)46% (116)4.45 (129)58.40.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense1325.824.639.9%3.321.419369174195551%47%43%38%17%.14
DUKE Defense1429.431.343.9%4.451.5 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%18%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense1324.525.239.8%3.321.1 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%19%.09
DUKE Offense1434.632.245.6%4.280.9213851232624.145%54%44%47%15%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State1329:3019.433%63%6.955.21.41.16.22.5027.5
Duke1427:2020.839%76%658.40.91.56.31.9331
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense1351% (53)43% (71)35.2174.2516 (78).13 (63)2.98 (61)66% (104)10% (82)0.97 (66)
DUKE Defense1448% (48)43% (80) - - - - .12 (86)2.73 (36)76% (104)12% (15)1.03 (100)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense1346% (24)40% (50) - - - - .01 (18)2.68 (27)71% (64)11% (26)0.9 (40)
DUKE Offense1445% (109)44% (61)29.9123.14.124 (60).07 (93)2.77 (105)70% (83)10% (89)0.96 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense1347% (88)38% (108)17.230.2194.86.511.317 (86)8 (20).23 (76)1.6 (43)32% (85)27% (98).26 (87)8% (119)1.9 (90)
DUKE Defense1450% (87)46% (116) - - - - - - 13 (22).41 (124)1.7 (111)32% (54)34% (122).46 (130)6% (70)2.1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense1353% (119)39% (45) - - - - - - 7 (55).17 (35)1.5 (47)33% (45)29% (65).22 (36)8% (13)2 (79)
DUKE Offense1454% (23)47% (22)21.932.52628.11230 (14)5 (7).42 (21)1.6 (36)30% (52)34% (26).43 (24)5% (39)2.2 (20)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 11.44  #38
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 6.90  #79
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -4.54  #17
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #71
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 11.44   Duke: 5.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 4.8   Duke: 4.8




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 5.88  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.47  #22
Duke's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #23
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 27
Duke 25


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona State 30
Duke 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Duke 29
Arizona State 28

Total Points: 57
Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/31Duke42Arizona State39Duke -4Arizona State49.5Over
201412/27Duke31Arizona State36Arizona State -7.5Duke65.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke112 Overs
Arizona State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

Arizona State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Sun Bowl Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42
2024CFP Quarterfinal Arizona State vs Texas+13.552.5L 31 - 39
2021Vegas Bowl Arizona State vs Wisconsin+8.542.5L 13 - 20
2019N/A Arizona State vs Florida State-3.551.5W 20 - 14
Duke Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39
2024Gator Bowl Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52
2023Birmingham Bowl Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10
2022Military Bowl Duke vs UCF-3.563.0W 30 - 13
  
(#38) ASU at (#50) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatASUDUKE
Power RatePwr #38 #50
SP+SP+ #53 #53
Perf GradeGrade #89 #32
OffenseOff #93 #9
DefenseDef #63 #103
Spec TeamsST #113 #26
TalentTal #27 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #54
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #93 #103
SuccessSuc #101 #99
ExplosiveExp #66 #118
PPAPPA #87 #120
PowerPwr #79 #88
SP+SP+ #71 #91
Pts POPPO #109 #129
HavocHav #107 #28
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #33 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #71 #80
Run ExplRExp #66 #100
PPAExp #63 #86
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #36
Stuff RateStuff #83 #13
TackleTak -  #88
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #96 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #108 #116
Pass ExplPExl #43 #111
PPAExp #76 #124
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #56
F7 HavocF7 #82 #15
DB HavocDB #119 #70
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffASU Def
Perf GradePerf #9 #63
SuccessSuc #32 #48
ExplosiveExp #25 #52
PPAPPA #26 #32
PowerPwr #22 #17
SP+SP+ #23 #36
Pts POPPO #28 #38
HavocHav #65 #14
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffASU Def
Run GameRun #47 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #61 #50
Run ExplRExp #67 #40
PPAExp #93 #18
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #27
Stuff RateStuff #113 #35
TackleTak -  #42
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #6 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #22 #45
Pass ExplPExl #36 #47
PPAExp #21 #35
Pass Block/RushP Blk #29 #117
F7 HavocF7 #89 #26
DB HavocDB #39 #13
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57°
Rematch from Week 1
Duke -4.0 (49.5)
Duke won vs Arizona State this year (42-39)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims7815052%886755.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims9345234.988
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain22378017.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio21303214.468

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Jordan Crook928212
Myles Rowser794013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly366622
Prince Dorbah188471
Clayton Smith197420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren352017

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)30544968%36463058.1
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard178962105.449
Anderson Castle (Tr)110470114.366
Jaquez Moore3919214.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)681069615.777
Que'Sean Brown53664312.544
Sahmir Hagans38467612.335
Jeremiah Hasley34404511.956

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)815201
Luke Mergott817283
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall3910340
Elliott Schaper162200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123