Arizona State at Duke - 2025 Matchup Preview

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Duke Blue Devils

Wednesday, December 31st 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Duke -4 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Duke 42 - Arizona State: 39 (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl)

Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Duke -0 (SP+ DUKE -3)
Projected Score: ASU: 27 - DUKE: 27 (53)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ASU Travel: 336 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ASU Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arizona State vs Northern Arizona	-29.5	52.5	W 38 - 19	O	N
Sat 9/6	Arizona State at Mississippi State	-6.0	58.5	L 20 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/13	Arizona State vs Texas State	-18.5	61.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Arizona State at Baylor	+3.0	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Fri 9/26	Arizona State vs TCU	-2.5	54.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Arizona State at Utah	+9.5	44.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/18	Arizona State vs Texas Tech	+7.5	52.5	W 26 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Arizona State vs Houston	-7.0	46.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Arizona State at Iowa State	+7.5	48.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Arizona State vs West Virginia	-10.0	46.5	W 25 - 23	O	N
Sat 11/22	Arizona State at Colorado	-7.0	47.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Arizona State vs Arizona	+2.0	48.5	L 7 - 23	U	N
Wed 12/31	Arizona State vs Duke	+4.0	49.5	L 39 - 42	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule

Duke's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Duke vs Elon	-36.5	51.5	W 45 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/6	Duke vs Illinois	+2.5	49.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/13	Duke at Tulane	+1.5	52.5	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/20	Duke vs NC State	-3.0	57.5	W 45 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Duke at Syracuse	-4.0	59.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Duke at California	-3.5	54.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Duke vs Georgia Tech	-3.5	60.5	L 18 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Duke at Clemson	+4.5	55.5	W 46 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Duke at UConn	-7.5	63.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/15	Duke vs Virginia	-5.5	59.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/22	Duke at North Carolina	-6.5	50.5	W 32 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Duke vs Wake Forest	-2.5	54.0	W 49 - 32	O	Y
Sat 12/6	Duke vs Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Duke vs Arizona State	-4.0	49.5	W 42 - 39	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)	25.8	52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)	24.5	41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)	34.6	35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)	29.4	41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Offense	14	25.8	24.6	49.8%	4.14	0.6	20	395	187	208	4.9	59%	41%	52%	47%	12%	.31
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	31.3	37.6%	3.19	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	34%	23%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Defense	14	24.5	25.2	42.4%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	41%	44%	16%	.12
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	32.2	38.6%	3.7	1.4	16	315	89	226	3.3	44%	56%	35%	42%	19%	.12

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona State	14	29:54	20.4	47%	53%	6	50.1	0.6	1.4	4	1.3	3	28.6
Duke	13	25:05	16.3	29%	38%	5.1	48.9	1.4	2	8.5	3.2	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Offense	14	59% (14)	52% (6)	38.1	187	4.9	28 (25)	.27 (12)	3.35 (19)	73% (76)	7% (18)	0.96 (71)
DUKE Defense	13	52% (81)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.06 (35)	2.74 (28)	59% (6)	15% (2)	0.91 (38)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Defense	14	45% (14)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (27)	2.97 (61)	63% (19)	8% (116)	1 (76)
DUKE Offense	13	44% (110)	35% (129)	27.5	89.2	3.3	13 (105)	-.07 (133)	2.47 (131)	78% (32)	10% (78)	0.74 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Offense	14	41% (120)	47% (21)	14.9	23.9	208.4	8.7	14	25 (31)	5 (6)	.39 (14)	1.6 (43)	27% (11)	38% (5)	.45 (21)	4% (16)	1.9 (115)
DUKE Defense	13	48% (53)	34% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.06 (7)	1.5 (39)	34% (35)	29% (41)	.27 (53)	7% (28)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Defense	14	54% (119)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.21 (57)	1.4 (18)	32% (65)	30% (68)	.14 (5)	8% (21)	1.9 (27)
DUKE Offense	13	56% (24)	42% (69)	19.6	32.5	226.1	7	11.5	26 (26)	12 (85)	.28 (55)	1.6 (56)	32% (73)	29% (98)	.3 (82)	9% (129)	2 (78)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 11.84 #34
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 13.54 #66
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 1.70 #15
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #60
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #44

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 11.84 Duke: 7.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 3.9 Duke: 6.6

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 7.89 #42
Duke's Offense Rating: 21.58 #23
Duke's Defense Rating: 12.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 27
Duke 27

Projected Total Points: 53

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/31	Duke	42	Arizona State	39	Duke -4	Arizona State	49.5	Over
2014	12/27	Duke	31	Arizona State	36	Arizona State -7.5	Duke	65.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	1	1	2 Overs
Arizona State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

Arizona State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Sun Bowl	Arizona State vs Duke	+4.0	49.5	L 39 - 42
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39
2021	Vegas Bowl	Arizona State vs Wisconsin	+8.5	42.5	L 13 - 20
2019	N/A	Arizona State vs Florida State	-3.5	51.5	W 20 - 14

Duke Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Sun Bowl	Duke vs Arizona State	-4.0	49.5	W 42 - 39
2024	Gator Bowl	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52
2023	Birmingham Bowl	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10
2022	Military Bowl	Duke vs UCF	-3.5	63.0	W 30 - 13

(#34) ASU at (#42) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ASU	DUKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#34	#42
SP+SP+	#60	#44
Perf GradeGrade	#88	#37
OffenseOff	#93	#16
DefenseDef	#66	#99
Spec TeamsST	#109	#40
TalentTal	#27	#48
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#54

Arizona State Notes(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report

Duke Notes(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report

Arizona State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	DUKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#99
SuccessSuc	#8	#16
ExplosiveExp	#100	#22
PPAPPA	#13	#10
PowerPwr	#66	#58
SP+SP+	#59	#86
Pts POPPO	#48	#17
HavocHav	#11	#2

Arizona State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#38	#62
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#51
Run ExplRExp	#71	#38
PPAExp	#12	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#19	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#16
TackleTak	-	#89

Arizona State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#39
PPAExp	#14	#7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#68
F7 HavocF7	#18	#2
DB HavocDB	#16	#28

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	ASU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#66
SuccessSuc	#116	#79
ExplosiveExp	#84	#55
PPAPPA	#109	#36
PowerPwr	#23	#15
SP+SP+	#19	#44
Pts POPPO	#90	#51
HavocHav	#115	#75

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#36	#47
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#49
Run ExplRExp	#131	#76
PPAExp	#133	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#47
TackleTak	-	#79

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#18
PPAExp	#55	#57
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#133
F7 HavocF7	#78	#116
DB HavocDB	#129	#21

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Duke -4.0 (49.5)
Duke won vs Arizona State this year (42-39)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Arizona State last year (42-39)

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt	145	239	61%	1628	10	3	6.8
Jeff Sims	105	188	56%	1261	10	6	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raleek Brown	186	1141	4	6.1	88
Jeff Sims	100	522	5	5.2	88
Sam Leavitt	73	306	5	4.2	52
Kanye Udoh (Tr)	56	240	2	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	61	711	8	11.7	57
Malik McClain	31	441	1	14.2	36
Chamon Metayer	38	375	4	9.9	27
Derek Eusebio	22	341	2	15.5	68

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Crook	101	8	2	2	2
Keyshaun Elliott	98	14	7	4	2
Myles Rowser	84	4	0	1	3
Adrian Wilson (Tr)	57	1	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshaun Elliott	98	14	7	4	2
Justin Wodtly	42	7	7	5	2
Elijah O'Neal	37	9	5	6	1
Prince Dorbah	18	8	4	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	44	1	1	0	12
Javan Robinson	42	3	0	0	8
Montana Warren	40	2	0	2	8

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)	334	500	67%	3973	34	6	7.9
Henry Belin IV	2	5	40%	22	0	0	4.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Sheppard	200	1132	11	5.7	60
Anderson Castle (Tr)	115	488	12	4.2	66
Jaquez Moore	41	201	1	4.9	32
Travis Bates	9	57	0	6.3	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)	72	1106	7	15.4	77
Que'Sean Brown	63	842	5	13.4	69
Sahmir Hagans	44	512	6	11.6	35
Jeremiah Hasley	40	454	6	11.4	56

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Caleb Weaver (Tr)	89	6	2	0	1
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3
Jaiden Francois (Tr)	73	8	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vincent Anthony	34	13	7	4	2
Josiah Green (Tr)	38	7	4	2	3
Aaron Hall	44	11	3	4	0
Wesley Williams	43	8	2	16	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Rivers	59	4	0	1	8
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3