Michigan State at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at USC Trojans(#25)USC logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (11:00 PM EDT)
USC -18.5 (55.5) (-950)  Open: -14.5
USC 45 - Michigan State: 31  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
USC is playing their 4th straight game
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -20  (SP+ USC -21)

Projected Score: MSU: 17 - USC: 37 (55)
USC Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
MSU Travel: 1913 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
USC#6 (.35)50% (7)35.848% (18)3.25 (21)16153% (4)2744.72 (8)#59 (.14)45% (121)2347% (122)43% (88)3.37 (42)50.41.11.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12
USC Defense132317.945.5%3.371.3 - - - - - 48%50%47%43%16%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
USC Offense1335.84350.3%4.721.1224351612745.448%50%48%53%13%.35

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
USC1327:2322.252%64%5.350.41.11.352.2226.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)
USC Defense1348% (51)47% (122) - - - - .11 (70)3.27 (125)65% (25)11% (35)0.79 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
USC Offense1348% (83)48% (18)30160.55.428 (16).21 (24)3.25 (21)79% (24)7% (22)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)
USC Defense1350% (89)43% (88) - - - - - - 11 (12).17 (38)1.6 (76)29% (118)32% (100).28 (65)5% (104)2.1 (104)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
USC Offense1350% (56)53% (4)20.230274.59.213.625 (22)8 (34).51 (4)1.6 (42)26% (10)38% (10).52 (10)6% (68)2.2 (18)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.61  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 8.61   USC: 22.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.3   USC: 17.3




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.6  #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26  #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3  #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4  #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5  #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
USC 37
Michigan State 17


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 35
Michigan State 17

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
USC 35
Michigan State 22

Total Points: 57
USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20USC45Michigan State31USC -18.5Michigan State55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC101 Overs
Michigan State010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#46) MSU at (#13) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUUSC
Power RatePwr #46 #13
SP+SP+ #84 #17
Perf GradeGrade #94 #33
OffenseOff #65 #18
DefenseDef #107 #79
Spec TeamsST #134 #122
TalentTal #30 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #18
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #79
SuccessSuc #77 #121
ExplosiveExp #96 #13
PPAPPA #98 #59
PowerPwr #45 #36
SP+SP+ #74 #35
Pts POPPO #64 #42
HavocHav #115 #63
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #62 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #122
Run ExplRExp #72 #6
PPAExp #95 #70
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #125
Stuff RateStuff #133 #85
TackleTak -  #26
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #91 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #88
Pass ExplPExl #112 #76
PPAExp #73 #38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #121 #84
F7 HavocF7 #132 #35
DB HavocDB #24 #104
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #107
SuccessSuc #7 #116
ExplosiveExp #37 #26
PPAPPA #6 #103
PowerPwr #9 #50
SP+SP+ #11 #85
Pts POPPO #8 #95
HavocHav #34 #111
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #22 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #123
Run ExplRExp #76 #44
PPAExp #24 #101
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #65
Stuff RateStuff #32 #104
TackleTak -  #51
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #23 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #101
Pass ExplPExl #42 #33
PPAExp #4 #102
Pass Block/RushP Blk #107 #104
F7 HavocF7 #22 #97
DB HavocDB #68 #115
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 73° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 4
USC -18.5 (55.5)
USC won vs Michigan State this year (45-31)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava24737366%34312389.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller13187376.775
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5115062.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Lake McRee30450415.064
Tanook Hines28398214.251

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II801010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce582103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby236530
Kameryn Fountain308400
Jide Abasiri244420
Anthony Lucas374370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcelles Williams330004
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
Christian Pierce582103