Michigan State at USC Game Matchup

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA (Big Ten)

Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)

USC is playing their 4th straight game
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -10.5 (SP+ USC -11)
Projected Score: MSU: 20 - USC: 31 (50)
USC Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
MSU Travel: 1913 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Trojans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-17.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	Michigan State vs Boston College	-3
Sat 9/13	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-26.5
Sat 9/20	Michigan State at USC	+10.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan State at Nebraska	+11
Sat 10/11	Michigan State vs UCLA	-3
Sat 10/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+12
Sat 10/25	Michigan State vs Michigan	+15.5
Sat 11/1	Michigan State at Minnesota	+9
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan State vs Penn State	+23.5
Sat 11/22	Michigan State at Iowa	+11
Sat 11/29	Michigan State vs Maryland	-8.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	USC vs Missouri State	-32.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-17
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-21
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-10.5
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	+5.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	+8
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+17.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	+3.5
Sat 11/8	USC vs Northwestern	-15.5
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-2
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+18.5
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-10.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19
USC Offense	13	30.2	36.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.35 #49
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 6.35 USC: 13.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -0.2 USC: 11.0

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 13.42 #34
USC's Offense Rating: 19.36 #39
USC's Defense Rating: 8.52 #30
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #30
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #13
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
USC 31
Michigan State 20

Projected Total Points: 50

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	0	0	0 Overs
Michigan State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#49) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.35 #49
Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32
Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Michigan State Notes
(5/21) OL looks pretty bad outside OG Gulbin (Wake)
(5/21) If Chiles improves they have WR/TE weapons
(5/21) Def 14 portal adds, 5 DL & 7 DBs
(5/7) WR Fr Marsh big find LY, sneaky great portal adds
(5/7) OL 2/5 back. Awful LY, 3 portal adds, Moore huge
(5/7) RB - Tullis & Frazier lead, not much exp. 1 portal
(4/4) TE Velling a big target, top 10 TE via PFF
(3/19) Def OK LY, need playmakers/pass rush
(3/19) Year 2 for HC Smith, need to show progress
(3/18) QB Chiles must improve, limit TO's

Michigan State Ratings Matchup USC

Power #49

#34

Off #53

#39

Def #36

#30

Talent #37

#22

SP+ #64

#30

SP+ Off #107

#13

SP+ Def #32

#47

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | USC
Depth Chart: MSU | USC
Rosters: MSU | USC

(#34) USC Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.42 #34
Offense Rating: 19.36 #39
Defense Rating: 8.52 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #47
Talent Rating: 882.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #18
Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.76 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Good Pass Success 46%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

USC Notes
(5/23) Safeties Ramsey & Fitzgerald a strong duo
(5/13) Caden Chittenden (UNLV) top kicker portal add
(4/4) JUCO RB Waymond Jordan looks great early
(3/22) Riley was 1-4 in road games LY. Yikes.
(3/20) QB Maiava good down the stretch LY
(3/20) RB rebuild, Sanders (NM), some talent
(3/20) WR Lemon/Lane a top combo. #3/depth?
(3/20) OL 2/5 back. Took 2 portals. Not clear
(3/20) Def better LY, but lacked sacks/picks/havoc
(3/20) Def lost a lot. Portal adds - 3 DB, 2 DL.

Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Alessio Milivojevic	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aidan Chiles	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11
Makhi Frazier	7	21	0	3.0	8
Brandon Tullis	7	20	0	2.9	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)	40	705	9	17.6	68
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Jack Velling	36	411	1	11.4	34

View Michigan State's Full Roster

Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikai Martinez	51	3	0	1	2
Malik Spencer	44	1	0	0	2
Tracy Revels (Tr)	40	0	0	2	1
David Santiago (Tr)	37	5	4	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago (Tr)	37	5	4	2	3
Isaac Smith (Tr)	31	4	3	1	0
Alex VanSumeren	16	3	2	0	0
Ben Roberts	8	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	24	2	1	1	5
David Santiago (Tr)	37	5	4	2	3
Malcolm Bell (Tr)	26	1	0	0	3

USC's OC Luke Huard

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1
Makai Lemon	1	1	100%	39	0	0	39.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
Jayden Maiava	20	45	4	2.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Prince Strachan (Tr)	25	304	1	12.2	37
Lake McRee	24	245	0	10.2	34

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamari Ramsey	60	6	2	1	5
D.J. Harvey (Tr)	58	7	2	0	6
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	55	7	0	2	8
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Kamari Ramsey	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1
D.J. Harvey (Tr)	58	7	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	55	7	0	2	8
D.J. Harvey (Tr)	58	7	2	0	6
Kamari Ramsey	60	6	2	1	5