Michigan State at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (11:00 PM EDT)
USC -18.5 (55.5) (-950) Open: -14.5
USC 45 - Michigan State: 31 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

USC is playing their 4th straight game
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -14 (SP+ USC -20)
Projected Score: MSU: 21 - USC: 35 (56)
USC Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
MSU Travel: 1913 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-18.5	49.5	W 23 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/6	Michigan State vs Boston College	-3.5	45.5	W 42 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/13	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-23.5	55.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/20	Michigan State at USC	+18.5	55.5	L 31 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan State at Nebraska	+12.5	48.5	L 27 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Michigan State vs UCLA	-7.0	51.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+26.5	49.5	L 13 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Michigan State vs Michigan	+13.5	47.5	L 20 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Michigan State at Minnesota	+4.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan State vs Penn State	+7.0	48.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/22	Michigan State at Iowa	+17.5	43.0	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Michigan State vs Maryland	-4.0	49.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	24.6	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	29.9	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	35.8	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	23	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	24.6	21.6	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13
USC Defense	13	23	17.9	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	29.9	32.8	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19
USC Offense	13	35.8	43	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 11.46 #37
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 19.95 #28
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 8.49 #35
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 11.46 USC: 17.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.4 USC: 16.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 17.925 #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87 #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92 #45
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9 #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
USC 35
Michigan State 21

Projected Total Points: 56

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	USC	45	Michigan State	31	USC -18.5	Michigan State	55.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	1	0	1 Overs
Michigan State	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#37) MSU at (#26) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	USC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#26
SP+SP+	#82	#16
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#30
OffenseOff	#61	#17
DefenseDef	#96	#73
Spec TeamsST	#133	#124
TalentTal	#30	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	#33	#18

Michigan State Notes(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	USC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#73
SuccessSuc	#86	#94
ExplosiveExp	#118	#24
PPAPPA	#105	#78
PowerPwr	#28	#45
SP+SP+	#70	#36
Pts POPPO	#116	#49
HavocHav	#98	#105

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#78	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#78
Run ExplRExp	#126	#77
PPAExp	#116	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#120
TackleTak	-	#30

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#4
PPAExp	#79	#49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#121	#64
F7 HavocF7	#112	#127
DB HavocDB	#63	#42

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#96
SuccessSuc	#11	#69
ExplosiveExp	#91	#110
PPAPPA	#41	#85
PowerPwr	#16	#35
SP+SP+	#9	#81
Pts POPPO	#85	#98
HavocHav	#101	#93

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#25
Run ExplRExp	#106	#80
PPAExp	#21	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#33
TackleTak	-	#40

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#86
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#101
PPAExp	#74	#111
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#99	#102
F7 HavocF7	#24	#64
DB HavocDB	#134	#121

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
USC -18.5 (55.5)
USC won vs Michigan State this year (45-31)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Michigan State last year (45-31)

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles	128	203	63%	1392	10	3	6.9
Alessio Milivojevic	111	173	64%	1267	10	3	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makhi Frazier	116	520	2	4.5	49
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)	72	428	2	5.9	85
Brandon Tullis	68	297	4	4.4	35
Aidan Chiles	81	227	6	2.8	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	59	662	6	11.2	48
Omari Kelly (Tr)	47	626	2	13.3	75
Jack Velling	36	359	3	10.0	28
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)	24	330	3	13.8	45

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Wayne Matthews III	73	5	0	0	1
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Alex VanSumeren	50	2	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Hall	88	5	3	2	1
Jalen Thompson	29	6	3	8	1
Quindarius Dunnigan	25	5	3	9	0
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)	49	5	1	0	6
Malik Spencer	52	3	2	1	5
Chance Rucker	7	0	0	1	2

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	265	403	66%	3711	24	10	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	156	972	8	6.2	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	54	157	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Tanook Hines	34	561	2	16.5	51
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	86	3	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	64	3	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Fountain	37	11	6	1	0
Braylan Shelby	27	6	5	4	0
Jide Abasiri	26	4	4	2	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
DeCarlos Nicholson	42	1	1	4
Marcelles Williams	37	0	0	4