Florida at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes(#4)Miami logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Miami -8.5 (51.5) (-320)  Open: -3.0 | 55.5
Miami 26 - Florida: 7

 
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Gonzales (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
FLA 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI 4th straight Home Game
MIAMI is playing their 4th straight game
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami -18  (SP+ MIAMI -19)

Projected Score: FLA: 15 - MIAMI: 33 (48)
MIAMI Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
FLA Travel: 286 miles
Hurricanes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 13 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.0

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#89 (.14)42% (80)21.647% (37)3.26 (19)13738% (113)2054 (42)#83 (.18)43% (89)2443% (71)44% (107)3.46 (55)43.71.51.4
MIAMI#30 (.24)47% (18)31.646% (45)3.09 (41)14150% (10)2444.47 (20)#9 (.04)36% (12)13.137% (16)35% (15)2.42 (3)55.90.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1221.61341.6%41.5193411372054.347%52%47%38%15%.14
MIAMI Defense1413.111.835.8%2.421.6 - - - - - 43%55%37%35%20%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense122430.443.3%3.461.4 - - - - - 53%45%43%44%15%.18
MIAMI Offense1431.636.147.5%4.470.9213851412444.350%48%46%50%12%.24

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1229:461934%42%5.143.71.51.452.1027.7
Miami1430:4620.646%61%6.855.90.91.66.32.9231.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1247% (88)47% (37)32136.84.310 (122).14 (55)3.26 (19)76% (42)10% (74)0.8 (127)
MIAMI Defense1443% (8)37% (16) - - - - -.01 (14)2.53 (13)72% (74)13% (8)0.98 (81)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1253% (107)43% (71) - - - - .08 (59)2.79 (53)79% (117)9% (83)0.93 (52)
MIAMI Offense1450% (63)46% (45)32.51414.323 (40).07 (86)3.09 (41)86% (2)6% (3)0.75 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (41)38% (113)19.531.2204.66.610.518 (61)14 (127).17 (109)1.5 (82)30% (43)27% (103).24 (94)6% (59)1.9 (96)
MIAMI Defense1455% (128)35% (15) - - - - - - 14 (55).12 (20)1.5 (43)38% (4)28% (51).23 (50)7% (14)1.9 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1245% (27)44% (107) - - - - - - 10 (38).3 (93)1.6 (86)31% (86)28% (50).3 (72)5% (90)2.3 (131)
MIAMI Offense1448% (76)50% (10)2128.6243.88.511.628 (61)10 (108).47 (9)1.5 (77)25% (6)32% (52).37 (44)5% (44)2.1 (37)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.92  #30
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.19  #27
Florida's Defense Rating: 1.27  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7  #62
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2  #84
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #45

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 15.92   Miami: 27.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 2.7   Miami: 21.8




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 27.29  #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.69  #10
Miami's Defense Rating: -9.44  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8  #8
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #10

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 33
Florida 15


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 27
Florida 16

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Miami 31
Florida 15

Total Points: 46
Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 13.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Miami26Florida7Miami -8.5Miami51.5Under
202408/31Florida17Miami41Miami -2.5Miami54.5Over
201908/24Florida24Miami20Florida -7Miami46.0Under
201309/07Miami21Florida16Florida -2Miami0
200809/06Florida26Miami3
200412/31Florida10Miami27
200309/06Miami38Florida33
200209/07Florida16Miami41
200001/01Miami37Florida20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami741 Overs
Florida202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 32 - 21 - 11 - 1
Road Teams3 - 62 - 21 - 11 - 1

(#30) FLA at (#5) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAMIAMI
Power RatePwr #30 #5
SP+SP+ #62 #8
Perf GradeGrade #52 #4
OffenseOff #53 #6
DefenseDef #58 #3
Spec TeamsST #89 #89
TalentTal #15 #16
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #9
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf #53 #3
SuccessSuc #80 #12
ExplosiveExp #129 #70
PPAPPA #89 #9
PowerPwr #27 #6
SP+SP+ #84 #10
Pts POPPO #42 #3
HavocHav #61 #7
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #42 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #16
Run ExplRExp #127 #81
PPAExp #55 #14
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #13
Stuff RateStuff #22 #27
TackleTak -  #115
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #94 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #113 #15
Pass ExplPExl #82 #43
PPAExp #109 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #1
F7 HavocF7 #74 #8
DB HavocDB #59 #14
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #6 #58
SuccessSuc #18 #89
ExplosiveExp #128 #68
PPAPPA #30 #83
PowerPwr #10 #32
SP+SP+ #18 #45
Pts POPPO #20 #55
HavocHav #9 #98
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #30 #46
Run SuccessRSuc #45 #71
Run ExplRExp #134 #52
PPAExp #86 #59
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #41 #53
Stuff RateStuff #18 #91
TackleTak -  #19
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #21 #78
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #107
Pass ExplPExl #77 #86
PPAExp #9 #93
Pass Block/RushP Blk #2 #98
F7 HavocF7 #3 #83
DB HavocDB #44 #90
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82°( - Hum: 79%)
- Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Miami -8.5 (51.5)
Miami won vs Florida this year (26-7)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida last year (41-17)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)27737374%317526108.5
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.158857105.456
CharMar Brown (Tr)10037553.813
Girard Pringle Jr.5936346.238
Jordan Lyle3510813.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney89992811.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)44590113.461
C.J. Daniels (Tr)37420711.447
Elija Lofton2220339.229

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)622104
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)574404
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Wesley Bissainthe532010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor5114950
Rueben Bain Jr.4212841
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Ahmad Moten248530
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)392117
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)533115