Florida at Miami Game Matchup
Florida logo Florida Gators at Miami HurricanesMiami logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

 
Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
FLA 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI 4th straight Home Game
MIAMI is playing their 4th straight game
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami -3   (SP+ MIAMI -2)
Projected Score: FLA: 29 - MIAMI: 32 (61)
MIAMI Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
FLA Travel: 286 miles
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Florida vs Long Island University-43
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-21.5
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+8.5
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+6.5
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+5
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-20.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+5.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-12
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+1
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee-5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-14.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.554.0
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-43.5
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-22
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-10
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-4
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-12
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1328.327.543%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1323.127.843.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
MIAMI Offense1343.947.852.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 21.93 #12
Florida's Offense Rating: 26.96 #9
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.03 #17
2025 Talent Rating: 970.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46% #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #14
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 21.93   Miami: 22.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 17.3   Miami: 18.8




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.38 #15
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.31 #6
Miami's Defense Rating: 8.35 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 966.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 49 #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 32
Florida 29

Projected Total Points: 61
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Florida17Miami41MiamiMiami -2.5Miami54.5Over
201908/24Florida24Miami20FloridaFlorida -7Miami46.0Under
201309/07Miami21Florida16MiamiFlorida -2Miami0
200809/06Florida26Miami3Florida
200412/31Florida10Miami27Miami
200309/06Miami38Florida33Miami
200209/07Florida16Miami41Miami
200001/01Miami37Florida20Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami631 Overs
Florida201 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 31 - 20 - 11 - 1
Road Teams3 - 52 - 11 - 11 - 0

(#12) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 21.93 #12
Offense Rating: 26.96 #9
Defense Rating: 5.03 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #21
Talent Rating: 970.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46% #12
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 3.12 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Florida Notes
(5/23) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. Could be top 10 in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) DE T Sapp/DT C Banks both top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF
(3/29) QB Lagway is special, has inj history though
(3/29) WR lost top 2, Wilson fast, Jackson hurt LY
(3/22) DE Sapp a top CFB Edge, great run, good rush
(3/18) RB Jaden Baugh (Fr) a breakout in '24
(3/18) Def improved LY, good returning prod in '25
Florida     Ratings Matchup     Miami
Power #12
#15
Off #9
#6
Def #17
#29
Talent #15
#16
SP+ #14
#12
SP+ Off #16
#1
SP+ Def #21
#44

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida last year (41-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FLA | MIAMI
Depth Chart: FLA | MIAMI
Rosters: FLA | MIAMI
(#15) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.38 #15
Offense Rating: 29.31 #6
Defense Rating: 8.35 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44
Talent Rating: 966.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 49 #9
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Miami Notes
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) ACC sched easy outside @ SMU, OOC hard
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF
(3/28) New DC Hetherman has 1 yr DC exp (Minn)
(3/20) TE Lofton a name to watch. Very athletic
(3/18) RBs Fletcher big time, Lyle good depth


  
Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Aidan Warner215042%228034.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Treyaun Webb219314.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)22315214.345
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840
Aidan Mizell17202211.943

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Jaden Robinson524410
Tyreak Sapp4613750
Bryce Thornton412013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Bryce Thornton412013
Aaron Gates274013

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)29044865%348528127.8
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Keelan Marion (Tr)219624.618
Carson Beck (Tr)557111.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434
Tony Johnson (Tr)4945269.223
Keelan Marion (Tr)24346114.452
Alex Bauman (Tr)15171611.436

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Kamal Bonner (Tr)567160
David Blay (Tr)4510620
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Blay (Tr)4510620
Akheem Mesidor329620
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Ethan O'Connor (Tr)301018
Charles Brantley (Tr)272007