Oregon at Indiana - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, January 9th 2026 (7:30 PM EST)
Indiana -3 (50.5) (-175) Open: 0.0
Indiana 56 - Oregon: 22 (CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl)

Ducks (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (33 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Indiana -4 (SP+ IND -7)
Projected Score: ORE: 24 - IND: 28 (52)
IND Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ORE Travel: 2175 miles, 3 hrs behind

Hoosiers (16 - 0) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (11 - 1)
Avg Score : 42 - 12 (49 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13.7 - 0.3 (#1)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ORE Players
IND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon vs Montana State	-28.0	56.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Oregon vs Oklahoma State	-28.5	55.5	W 69 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Oregon at Northwestern	-25.5	50.5	W 34 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Oregon vs Oregon State	-33.5	58.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Oregon at Penn State	+4.5	52.5	W 30 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Oregon vs Indiana	-7.0	51.5	L 20 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/18	Oregon at Rutgers	-17.5	62.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Oregon vs Wisconsin	-31.5	44.5	W 21 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Oregon at Iowa	-4.5	41.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Fri 11/14	Oregon vs Minnesota	-26.5	45.5	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Oregon vs USC	-10.5	59.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Oregon at Washington	-6.5	51.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Oregon vs James Madison	-22.5	47.5	W 51 - 34	O	N
Thu 1/1	Oregon vs Texas Tech	+1.5	50.5	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Fri 1/9	Oregon vs Indiana	+3.0	50.5	L 22 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Indiana's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Indiana vs Old Dominion	-23.5	54.5	W 27 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/6	Indiana vs Kennesaw State	-35.5	51.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Indiana vs Indiana State	-47.5	60.0	W 73 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Indiana vs Illinois	-7.0	51.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Indiana at Iowa	-9.5	47.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Indiana at Oregon	+7.0	51.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Indiana vs Michigan State	-26.5	49.5	W 38 - 13	O	N
Sat 10/25	Indiana vs UCLA	-26.5	53.5	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Indiana at Maryland	-21.0	50.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Indiana at Penn State	-13.5	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/15	Indiana vs Wisconsin	-28.5	43.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Indiana at Purdue	-28.5	53.5	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 12/6	Indiana vs Ohio State	+5.5	48.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Thu 1/1	Indiana vs Alabama	-7.5	46.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Fri 1/9	Indiana vs Oregon	-3.0	50.5	W 56 - 22	O	Y
Mon 1/19	Indiana vs Miami	-7.5	46.5	W 27 - 21	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	36.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	17.9	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
IND	#6 (.33)	52% (2)	41.6	50% (13)	3.09 (55)	166	56% (2)	261	5.03 (1)	#19 (.09)	38% (24)	11.7	35% (7)	40% (70)	3.66 (55)	43.9	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
IND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Offense	14	36.9	32.8	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33
IND Defense	13	11.7	8.4	38.1%	3.66	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	35%	40%	21%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Defense	14	17.9	15.6	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11
IND Offense	13	41.6	49.1	52.4%	5.03	0.7	23	428	166	261	4.5	52%	48%	50%	56%	13%	.33

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3
Indiana	13	30:42	23.5	48%	59%	4.8	43.9	0.7	1.8	6.7	2.7	2	34.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)
IND Defense	13	45% (10)	35% (7)	-	-	-	-	.01 (16)	2.4 (4)	66% (27)	13% (9)	1.05 (96)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)
IND Offense	13	52% (60)	50% (13)	37.2	166.2	4.5	37 (6)	.17 (48)	3.09 (55)	75% (53)	7% (16)	0.89 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)
IND Defense	13	55% (127)	40% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.15 (29)	1.3 (3)	32% (59)	28% (30)	.19 (21)	7% (26)	1.6 (1)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)
IND Offense	13	48% (73)	56% (2)	18.9	27.8	261.3	9.4	13.8	33 (5)	6 (10)	.53 (2)	1.6 (64)	27% (12)	39% (3)	.5 (11)	6% (73)	2.1 (52)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.64 #4
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.92 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: -1.84 #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67% #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.9 #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.7 #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 28.64 Indiana: 31.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.9 Indiana: 32.4

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: 31.02 #1
Indiana's Offense Rating: 30.19 #1
Indiana's Defense Rating: -0.59 #9
2025 Talent Rating: 726.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #44
Indiana's 2025 Expected Record: 13.7 - 0.3
Indiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.4 #1
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.9 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.6

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Indiana 28
Oregon 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 49.1
Defense: 11.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.4

Indiana's 2025 Record
Record: 16 - 0
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Oregon	20	Indiana	30	Oregon -7	Indiana	51.5	Under
2025	01/09	Indiana	56	Oregon	22	Indiana -3	Indiana	50.5	Over
2004	09/11	Oregon	24	Indiana	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Indiana	3	2	1 Overs
Oregon	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

Oregon Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	CFP Semifinal	Oregon vs Indiana	+3.0	50.5	L 22 - 56
2025	CFP Quarterfinal	Oregon vs Texas Tech	+1.5	50.5	W 23 - 0
2025	CFP 1st Round	Oregon vs James Madison	-22.5	47.5	W 51 - 34
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41
2023	Fiesta Bowl	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6
2022	Holiday Bowl	Oregon vs North Carolina	-13.0	76.0	W 28 - 27
2021	Alamo Bowl	Oregon vs Oklahoma	+7.0	64.0	L 32 - 47
2020	Fiesta Bowl	Oregon vs Iowa State	+4.5	57.5	L 17 - 34
2019	Rose Bowl	Oregon vs Wisconsin	+3.0	53.0	W 28 - 27

Indiana Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	CFP Nat'l Title	Indiana vs Miami	-7.5	46.5	W 27 - 21
2025	CFP Semifinal	Indiana vs Oregon	-3.0	50.5	W 56 - 22
2025	CFP Quarterfinal	Indiana vs Alabama	-7.5	46.5	W 38 - 3
2024	CFP 1st Round	Indiana vs Notre Dame	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 27
2020	Outback Bowl	Indiana vs Ole Miss	-6.5	66.5	L 20 - 26
2019	Gator Bowl	Indiana vs Tennessee	+4.0	56.0	L 22 - 23

(#4) ORE at (#1) IND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORE	IND
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#4	#1
SP+SP+	#4	#1
Perf GradeGrade	#4	#1
OffenseOff	#4	#1
DefenseDef	#7	#2
Spec TeamsST	#14	#10
TalentTal	#3	#69
Blue ChipsBC%	#5	#44

Oregon Notes(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report

Indiana Notes(12/6) WR1 Omar Cooper went out of B1G title game w/ inj.
(11/28) Run game mauled Purdue, 330+yds over 10 ypc
(11/9) Mortal vs PSU, even game. Pass Def leaky?
(10/16) Cig now top 5 paid coach in CFB after PSU threat
(10/12) Staff hit #'s on portals is incredible. Scouting +
(10/11) Dominated OU, Def held to 276, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/22) DL is a terror, constant pressure with 4 rushing
(9/20) Beat Ill 63-10, 500+ yds even split. Def great
(9/20) Hoosiers real deal, B1G & CFP contenders
(9/15) RB1 Leo Beebe Jr out for season (knee)
(9/12) The cupcake murder tour is finally over.
(8/30) 500 yds but 27 pts vs ODU? Run Def issues
Indiana Injury Report

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	IND Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#2
SuccessSuc	#5	#24
ExplosiveExp	#107	#25
PPAPPA	#7	#19
PowerPwr	#4	#9
SP+SP+	#10	#2
Pts POPPO	#10	#55
HavocHav	#2	#6

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	IND Def
Run GameRun	#2	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#7
Run ExplRExp	#108	#96
PPAExp	#17	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#6
TackleTak	-	#2

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	IND Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#3
PPAExp	#7	#29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#2	#29
F7 HavocF7	#4	#9
DB HavocDB	#3	#26

Indiana on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	IND Off	ORE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#1	#7
SuccessSuc	#2	#18
ExplosiveExp	#90	#43
PPAPPA	#6	#33
PowerPwr	#1	#4
SP+SP+	#2	#5
Pts POPPO	#1	#59
HavocHav	#27	#9

Indiana Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	IND Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#9	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#64
Run ExplRExp	#107	#63
PPAExp	#48	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#62	#117
TackleTak	-	#7

Indiana Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	IND Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#5
Pass SuccessPSuc	#2	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#50
PPAExp	#2	#12
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#10
F7 HavocF7	#16	#23
DB HavocDB	#73	#5

Program Comparison
IND 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Indiana -3.0 (50.5)
Indiana won vs Oregon this year (56-22)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Oregon last year (56-22)

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	296	412	72%	3565	30	10	8.7
Brock Thomas	12	16	75%	130	1	0	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Whittington	129	829	6	6.4	68
Jordon Davison	112	667	15	6.0	67
Dierre Hill Jr.	75	656	5	8.7	71
Jayden Limar	46	262	3	5.7	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Benson (Tr)	43	719	6	16.7	64
Kenyon Sadiq	51	560	8	11.0	30
Jeremiah McClellan	38	557	3	14.7	51
Jamari Johnson (Tr)	32	510	3	15.9	56

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	132	6	1	5	5
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)	92	4	1	1	5
Aaron Flowers	69	1	0	1	3
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5
Matayo Uiagalelei	34	10	6	7	3
Nasir Wyatt	11	4	3	1	0
Blake Purchase	32	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Finney Jr.	42	3	1	0	7
Jerry Mixon	57	4	1	4	7
A'Mauri Washington	33	5	2	5	7

IND's OC Mike Shanahan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)	273	379	72%	3535	41	6	9.3
Alberto Mendoza	18	24	75%	286	5	1	11.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby (Tr)	230	1120	7	4.9	82
Kaelon Black	187	1039	10	5.6	40
Khobie Martin	77	506	6	6.6	36
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)	90	276	7	3.1	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omar Cooper Jr.	70	961	13	13.7	58
Elijah Sarratt	64	806	15	12.6	49
Charlie Becker	34	679	4	20.0	53
E.J. Williams	36	438	6	12.2	62

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Bryant Haines (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rolijah Hardy	103	15	8	4	5
Aiden Fisher	95	11	5	5	1
Louis Moore (Tr)	90	3	0	0	3
Isaiah Jones	78	15	7	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rolijah Hardy	103	15	8	4	5
Isaiah Jones	78	15	7	3	2
Tyrique Tucker	38	12	6	3	2
Stephen Daley (Tr)	35	19	6	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Ponds	60	4	0	0	10
Amare Ferrell	48	2	0	0	6
Rolijah Hardy	103	15	8	4	5