Iowa at Iowa State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa logo   Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones  Iowa State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -3.0 (43.0) (-150)  Open: -3.0 | 43.0
Iowa State 16 - Iowa: 13

 
Hawkeyes (9 - 4) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#50)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
ISU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Iowa -5.5  (SP+ IOWA -10)
Projected Score: IOWA: 26 - ISU: 20 (46)
ISU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
IOWA Travel: 110 miles
Cyclones (8 - 4) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+6.548.5L 21 - 26UY
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.543.0W 20 - 17UN
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5.538.5W 40 - 16OY
Wed 12/31 Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.047.5W 34 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-4.048.5W 39 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.555.5L 30 - 38ON
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-3.052.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-2.548.5L 27 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.548.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+7.558.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-3.055.5W 38 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 7, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)29.344% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)16.146% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)27.440% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)20.246% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ISU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Offense1329.329.842.3%3.770.8153061851215.262%37%44%40%13%.14
ISU Defense1420.218.842.6%3.441.5 - - - - - 55%45%46%38%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Defense1316.117.242%3.371.8 - - - - - 46%54%46%39%17%.11
ISU Offense1427.432.340.4%4.231.1213871502364.451%49%40%41%14%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa1327:0515.441%50%2.826.30.81.84.52.1233.6
Iowa State1430:0020.942%81%3.625.91.11.54.71.1130
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense1362% (7)44% (63)35.51855.229 (18).13 (71)2.92 (89)62% (120)10% (76)1.02 (47)
ISU Defense1455% (114)46% (101) - - - - .22 (114)3.05 (76)76% (81)9% (85)1.08 (112)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense1346% (17)46% (97) - - - - .07 (38)3.07 (84)84% (126)10% (68)0.68 (1)
ISU Offense1451% (68)40% (106)34.4150.24.424 (45).12 (74)2.83 (102)70% (88)8% (22)1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense1337% (129)40% (94)11.518.6121.56.510.69 (128)7 (26).21 (93)1.5 (93)26% (4)28% (99).2 (108)3% (7)2 (72)
ISU Defense1445% (21)38% (41) - - - - - - 14 (23).17 (36)1.6 (73)32% (63)32% (86).32 (78)5% (86)2 (48)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense1354% (118)39% (51) - - - - - - 16 (10).18 (39)1.5 (36)32% (76)28% (36).24 (39)7% (27)1.8 (7)
ISU Offense1449% (67)41% (77)18.331.1236.47.612.922 (46)10 (63).29 (49)1.7 (27)30% (52)35% (29).39 (41)7% (94)2 (70)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 15.10  #22
Iowa's Offense Rating: 19.71  #29
Iowa's Defense Rating: 4.61  #23
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 4.6
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7  #12
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #37
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 15.10   Iowa State: 12.11

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 19.7   Iowa State: 9.9




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 12.11  #41
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 19.26  #32
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 9.94  #46
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9  #33
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #63
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.2

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 26
Iowa State 20

Projected Total Points: 46
Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Iowa State16Iowa13Iowa State -3.0Push43.0Under
202409/07Iowa19Iowa State20Iowa -3Iowa State35.0Over
202309/09Iowa State13Iowa20Iowa -3.5Iowa35.5Under
202209/10Iowa7Iowa State10Iowa -3.5Iowa State39.0Under
202109/11Iowa State17Iowa27Iowa State -4Iowa45.0Under
201909/14Iowa State17Iowa18Iowa -1.5Iowa State42.5Under
201809/08Iowa13Iowa State3Iowa -3.5Iowa47.0Under
201709/09Iowa State41Iowa44Iowa -3.5Iowa State48.5Over
201609/10Iowa42Iowa State3Iowa -18Iowa49.0Under
201509/12Iowa State17Iowa31Iowa -4Iowa48.0Push
201409/13Iowa17Iowa State20Iowa -15.5Iowa State0
201309/14Iowa State21Iowa27Iowa -3Iowa0
201209/08Iowa6Iowa State9
201109/10Iowa State44Iowa41
201009/11Iowa35Iowa State7
200909/12Iowa State3Iowa35
200809/13Iowa17Iowa State5
200709/15Iowa State15Iowa13
200609/16Iowa27Iowa State17
200509/10Iowa State23Iowa3
200409/11Iowa17Iowa State10
200309/13Iowa State21Iowa40
200209/14Iowa31Iowa State36
200111/24Iowa State17Iowa14
200009/15Iowa14Iowa State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State1152 Overs
Iowa1467 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 144 - 72 - 42 - 3
Road Teams14 - 117 - 43 - 24 - 2

(#22) IOWA at (#41) ISU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatIOWAISU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #22 #41
SP+SP+ #12 #33
Perf GradeGrade #8 #56
OffenseOff #9 #45
DefenseDef #21 #83
Spec TeamsST #8 #107
TalentTal #41 #66
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #65
Iowa Notes
(11/28) Killed Neb to finish 8-4, 6-3 in B1G. Good season
(11/22) Stop L streak with comeback vs MSU. Found a way
(11/16) 2 hard L's to Ducks/USC. 6-4 feels crossroad-ish
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
Iowa Injury Report
Iowa State Notes
(12/7) Declined bowl game. 2025 season is over.
(12/5) HC Matt Campbell going to Penn State
(12/5) Hired HC Jimmy Rogers, Wazzu HC (S Dak St too)
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
Iowa State Injury Report
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffISU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #83
SuccessSuc #72 #81
ExplosiveExp #110 #83
PPAPPA #100 #79
PowerPwr #29 #46
SP+SP+ #37 #25
Pts POPPO #84 #29
HavocHav #31 #84
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffISU Def
Run GameRun #26 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #101
Run ExplRExp #47 #112
PPAExp #71 #114
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLY #89 #76
Stuff RateStuff #110 #43
TackleTak -  #126
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #44 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #41
Pass ExplPExl #93 #73
PPAExp #93 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #128
F7 HavocF7 #76 #85
DB HavocDB #7 #86
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatISU OffIOWA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #21
SuccessSuc #99 #72
ExplosiveExp #7 #4
PPAPPA #62 #30
PowerPwr #32 #23
SP+SP+ #63 #6
Pts POPPO #37 #27
HavocHav #40 #51
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #39 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #97
Run ExplRExp #19 #1
PPAExp #74 #38
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #84
Stuff RateStuff #115 #115
TackleTak -  #84
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatISU OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #24 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #51
Pass ExplPExl #27 #36
PPAExp #49 #39
Pass Block/RushP Blk #92 #5
F7 HavocF7 #22 #68
DB HavocDB #94 #27
Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Iowa State -3.0 (43.0)
Iowa State won vs Iowa this year (16-13)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Iowa last year (16-13)
Iowa State beat Iowa in 2024 (20-19)
Iowa beat Iowa State in 2023 (20-13)

  
IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)16626263%17411076.6
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton17087855.234
Mark Gronowski (Tr)130545164.267
Jaziun Patterson6029604.917
Xavier Williams4928535.843
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Vonnahme29434315.051
Jacob Gill24278111.644
Sam Phillips (Tr)16261016.345
Reece Vander Zee15219214.629

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar8312461
Xavier Nwankpa761010
Koen Entringer734013
Zach Lutmer716107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett3510820
Max Llewellyn259685
Aaron Graves377531
Karson Sharar8312461
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall4700010
Zach Lutmer716107
Deshaun Lee341006

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen18795065.165
Abu Sama III14173255.244
Dylan Lee2511714.728
Rocco Becht8711181.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer37446612.127
Gabe Burkle26302111.644

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel778153
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon6810343
Jamison Patton481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon6810343
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)264240
Will McLaughlin132201
Kooper Ebel778153
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'Shawn James330005
Quentin Taylor Jr.272005
Kooper Ebel778153