Florida at LSU - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
LSU -5.5 (47.5) (-210) Open: -5.5 | 54.5
LSU 20 - Florida: 10 (SEC)

Gators (3 - 6) (3 - 6 - 0)
Coach Billy Gonzales (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 22 (10 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 94.8° (29% Hum)
LSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: LSU -5 (SP+ LSU -5)
Projected Score: FLA: 20 - LSU: 25 (45)
LSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FLA Travel: 531 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (5 - 4) (3 - 6 - 0)
Coach Frank Wilson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 19 (29 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#62)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
FLA Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Florida vs Long Island University	-46.5	56.5	W 55 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Florida vs South Florida	-18.5	58.0	L 16 - 18	U	N
Sat 9/13	Florida at LSU	+5.5	47.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/20	Florida at Miami	+8.5	51.5	L 7 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Florida vs Texas	+4.5	42.5	W 29 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Florida at Texas A&M	+7.0	47.5	L 17 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/18	Florida vs Mississippi State	-9.5	50.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Florida vs Georgia	+7.0	50.5	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Florida at Kentucky	-4.5	44.5	L 7 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Florida at Ole Miss	+14.0	53.5
Sat 11/22	Florida vs Tennessee	+4.5
Sat 11/29	Florida vs Florida State	-2.5

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

LSU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	LSU at Clemson	+3.5	57.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/6	LSU vs Louisiana Tech	-36.5	49.5	W 23 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/13	LSU vs Florida	-5.5	47.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/20	LSU vs SE Louisiana	-49.0	60.0	W 56 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/27	LSU at Ole Miss	+2.5	57.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	LSU vs South Carolina	-8.5	44.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/18	LSU at Vanderbilt	+1.5	48.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	+1.5	50.5	L 25 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	LSU at Alabama	+10.5	49.5	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	LSU vs Arkansas	-6.0	57.5
Sat 11/22	LSU vs Western Kentucky	-16
Sat 11/29	LSU at Oklahoma	+12.5

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#108 (.1)	42% (86)	20.4	46% (44)	3.07 (46)	124	39% (105)	217	3.73 (79)	#68 (.15)	40% (46)	22.4	40% (46)	40% (57)	3.47 (55)	46	1.8	1.6
LSU	#100 (.13)	41% (101)	23.7	37% (118)	2.39 (131)	102	43% (58)	241	3.55 (89)	#40 (.11)	40% (55)	19	42% (75)	39% (41)	3.49 (56)	58.3	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)		42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)		41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Offense	9	20.4	10.3	41.6%	3.73	1.8	19	341	124	217	3.9	46%	53%	46%	39%	16%	.1
LSU Defense	9	19	17.2	40.4%	3.49	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	39%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Defense	9	22.4	29.5	39.9%	3.47	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	40%	40%	15%	.15
LSU Offense	9	23.7	28.8	40.5%	3.55	1.1	20	343	102	241	3.8	42%	58%	37%	43%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida	9	30:42	19.2	33%	43%	5.3	46	1.8	1.6	4.8	1.7	0	27.9
LSU	9	30:13	19.7	38%	75%	6.9	58.3	1.1	1.4	4.7	2	1	28.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Offense	9	46% (104)	46% (44)	31.6	124	3.9	6 (122)	.09 (79)	3.07 (46)	79% (23)	10% (89)	0.75 (134)
LSU Defense	9	48% (50)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	.06 (43)	2.64 (32)	76% (99)	8% (105)	0.87 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Defense	9	52% (97)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	.04 (33)	2.7 (38)	79% (112)	9% (95)	0.93 (54)
LSU Offense	9	42% (122)	37% (118)	27.2	102.1	3.8	8 (107)	.07 (91)	2.39 (131)	71% (77)	11% (111)	0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Offense	9	53% (33)	39% (105)	21.3	33.4	217	6.5	10.2	13 (61)	12 (127)	.16 (110)	1.5 (101)	29% (36)	25% (115)	.19 (111)	6% (73)	1.9 (107)
LSU Defense	9	51% (94)	39% (41)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (22)	.17 (42)	1.6 (80)	34% (28)	29% (56)	.2 (35)	8% (9)	1.9 (43)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Defense	9	47% (41)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (38)	.26 (79)	1.6 (99)	32% (67)	23% (7)	.16 (19)	7% (49)	2.3 (130)
LSU Offense	9	58% (14)	43% (58)	23.7	35.1	240.8	6.9	10.2	14 (50)	5 (60)	.2 (90)	1.4 (126)	35% (122)	33% (44)	.27 (88)	7% (102)	1.9 (102)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 17.06 #30
Florida's Offense Rating: 15.01 #36
Florida's Defense Rating: -2.05 #24
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.2 #48
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #71
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #30

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 17.06 LSU: 16.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 6.2 LSU: 11.4

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 16.74 #29
LSU's Offense Rating: 11.88 #57
LSU's Defense Rating: -5.20 #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71 #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.4 #29
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #62
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1 #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Florida Scoring
Offense: 20.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.3
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.5

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 25
Florida 20

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida 22
LSU 19

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
LSU 26
Florida 17

Total Points: 43

LSU Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.8
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	LSU	20	Florida	10	LSU -5.5	LSU	47.5	Under
2024	11/16	Florida	27	LSU	16	LSU -3	Florida	57.0	Under
2023	11/11	LSU	52	Florida	35	LSU -14	LSU	68.5	Over
2022	10/15	Florida	35	LSU	45	Florida -2	LSU	51.5	Over
2021	10/16	LSU	49	Florida	42	Florida -12.5	LSU	61.0	Over
2020	12/12	Florida	34	LSU	37	Florida -23	LSU	65.5	Over
2019	10/12	LSU	42	Florida	28	LSU -14	Push	55.5	Over
2018	10/06	Florida	27	LSU	19	LSU -1	Florida	44.0	Over
2017	10/07	Florida	16	LSU	17	LSU -1.5	Florida	44.0	Under
2016	11/19	LSU	10	Florida	16	LSU -10.5	Florida	38.0	Under
2015	10/17	LSU	35	Florida	28	LSU -6.5	LSU	43.5	Over
2014	10/11	Florida	27	LSU	30	LSU -1	LSU	0
2013	10/12	LSU	17	Florida	6	LSU -5	LSU	0
2012	10/06	Florida	14	LSU	6
2011	10/08	LSU	41	Florida	11
2010	10/09	Florida	29	LSU	33
2009	10/10	LSU	3	Florida	13
2008	10/11	Florida	51	LSU	21
2007	10/06	LSU	28	Florida	24
2006	10/07	Florida	23	LSU	10
2005	10/15	LSU	21	Florida	17
2004	10/09	Florida	21	LSU	24
2003	10/11	LSU	7	Florida	19
2002	10/12	Florida	7	LSU	36
2001	10/06	LSU	15	Florida	44
2000	10/06	Florida	41	LSU	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	16	8	7 Overs
Florida	10	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 11	8 - 4	4 - 3	4 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 15	4 - 8	1 - 4	3 - 4

(#30) FLA at (#29) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FLA	LSU
Power RatePwr	#30	#29
SP+SP+	#48	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#74
OffenseOff	#77	#99
DefenseDef	#32	#44
Spec TeamsST	#84	#98
TalentTal	#15	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#12	#4

Florida Notes(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
(10/1) Have only 3 sacks, near dead last in CFB into Texas
(9/23) Napier's era feels over. Off awful, Lagway worse
(9/23) Lagway in a walking boot after loss to Miami
(9/20) Off & Lagway have tanked. 1-3 & bad vibes now
(9/14) 59% Pass rate w/o expl. TO's, Flags hurt bad
Florida Injury Report

LSU Notes(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
(9/30) OL has been a big issue, injuries & portal misses hurt
(9/28) Off a mess, can't run, Nuss playing hurt. OC Sloan ?
(9/27) RB Durham is douobful for Ole Miss
LSU Injury Report

Florida on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	LSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#44
SuccessSuc	#86	#55
ExplosiveExp	#130	#54
PPAPPA	#108	#40
PowerPwr	#36	#13
SP+SP+	#71	#11
Pts POPPO	#79	#56
HavocHav	#82	#57

Florida Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#75	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#75
Run ExplRExp	#134	#31
PPAExp	#79	#43
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	#46	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#39
TackleTak	-	#103

Florida Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#41
Pass ExplPExl	#101	#80
PPAExp	#110	#42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#94
F7 HavocF7	#89	#105
DB HavocDB	#73	#9

LSU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	FLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#99	#32
SuccessSuc	#101	#46
ExplosiveExp	#89	#83
PPAPPA	#100	#68
PowerPwr	#57	#24
SP+SP+	#62	#30
Pts POPPO	#89	#55
HavocHav	#115	#80

LSU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#132	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#46
Run ExplRExp	#62	#54
PPAExp	#91	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#85
TackleTak	-	#8

LSU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#58	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#99
PPAExp	#90	#79
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#79	#104
F7 HavocF7	#111	#95
DB HavocDB	#102	#49

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 95°

Rematch from Week 3
LSU -5.5 (47.5)
LSU won vs Florida this year (20-10)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat LSU last year (27-16)
LSU beat Florida in 2023 (52-35)
LSU beat Florida in 2022 (45-35)

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	171	265	65%	1762	11	12	6.6
Tramell Jones Jr.	21	35	60%	191	2	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	149	747	5	5.0	26
Ja'Kobi Jackson	27	98	0	3.6	27
KD Daniels	21	92	1	4.4	16
D.J. Lagway	50	63	0	1.3	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vernell Brown III	33	485	0	14.7	60
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)	20	264	1	13.2	27
Eugene Wilson	27	239	3	8.9	40
Hayden Hansen	24	208	1	8.7	28

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Myles Graham	51	4	5	4
Bryce Thornton	42	2	3	5
Jordan Castell	40	0	2	0
Sharif Denson	36	2	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamran James	32	5	3	2	2
George Gumbs	28	6	2	4	0
Michai Boireau	15	2	2	0	0
Brien Taylor Jr.	20	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Thornton	42	2	0	3	5
Myles Graham	51	4	0	5	4
Jaden Robinson	36	3	1	3	3

LSU's OC Alex Atkins (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	194	288	67%	1927	12	5	6.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)	18	27	67%	224	2	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	82	382	2	4.7	51
Harlem Berry	58	291	2	5.0	43
Ju'Juan Johnson	30	139	2	4.6	56
Zavion Thomas	16	93	0	5.8	48

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Barion Brown (Tr)	41	405	1	9.9	41
Aaron Anderson	33	398	0	12.1	39
Zavion Thomas	25	316	3	12.6	62
Trey'Dez Green	21	264	4	12.6	28

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)	64	1	0	0	4
West Weeks	60	7	2	0	0
Davhon Keys	51	2	1	4	1
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	44	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	42	5	3	4	2
Damien Shanklin	2	2	2	0	0
Whit Weeks	25	3	2	6	0
West Weeks	60	7	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)	36	0	0	1	8
P.J. Woodland	28	1	1	1	6
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)	64	1	0	0	4