Florida at LSU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at LSU Tigers(#3)LSU logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
LSU -5.5 (47.5) (-210)  Open: -5.5 | 54.5
LSU 20 - Florida: 10  (SEC)

 
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Gonzales (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 94.8° (29% Hum)
LSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: LSU -6  (SP+ LSU -7)

Projected Score: FLA: 20 - LSU: 26 (46)
LSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FLA Travel: 531 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Frank Wilson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.060.0W 56 - 10ON
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.557.5L 19 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-8.544.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt+1.548.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M+1.550.5L 25 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+10.549.5L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-4.058.5W 23 - 22UN
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.552.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+11.536.5L 13 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#89 (.14)42% (80)21.647% (37)3.26 (19)13738% (113)2054 (42)#83 (.18)43% (89)2443% (71)44% (107)3.46 (55)43.71.51.4
LSU#125 (.04)38% (111)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)9940% (90)2093.2 (115)#20 (.06)38% (23)19.839% (29)37% (31)2.98 (17)5211.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1221.61341.6%41.5193411372054.347%52%47%38%15%.14
LSU Defense1319.816.937.7%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense122430.443.3%3.461.4 - - - - - 53%45%43%44%15%.18
LSU Offense1322.825.738.4%3.2117308992093.743%56%37%40%18%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1229:461934%42%5.143.71.51.452.1027.7
LSU1328:3617.535%58%6.35211.64.82.1129.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1247% (88)47% (37)32136.84.310 (122).14 (55)3.26 (19)76% (42)10% (74)0.8 (127)
LSU Defense1347% (33)39% (29) - - - - .01 (21)2.6 (18)64% (23)9% (83)0.92 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1253% (107)43% (71) - - - - .08 (59)2.79 (53)79% (117)9% (83)0.93 (52)
LSU Offense1343% (118)37% (122)26.898.83.79 (107)- (124)2.46 (132)66% (105)11% (111)0.9 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (41)38% (113)19.531.2204.66.610.518 (61)14 (127).17 (109)1.5 (82)30% (43)27% (103).24 (94)6% (59)1.9 (96)
LSU Defense1352% (115)37% (31) - - - - - - 17 (22).14 (26)1.6 (78)35% (23)27% (35).2 (29)9% (6)2 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1245% (27)44% (107) - - - - - - 10 (38).3 (93)1.6 (86)31% (86)28% (50).3 (72)5% (90)2.3 (131)
LSU Offense1356% (20)40% (90)21.232.12096.59.917 (50)7 (60).16 (112)1.4 (128)36% (129)30% (79).21 (99)7% (103)1.9 (93)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.92  #30
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.19  #27
Florida's Defense Rating: 1.27  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7  #62
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2  #84
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #45

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 15.92   LSU: 15.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 2.7   LSU: 9.6




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.165  #31
LSU's Offense Rating: 6.88  #80
LSU's Defense Rating: -8.85  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71  #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #33
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #90
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.0  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 26
Florida 20


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida 23
LSU 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
LSU 26
Florida 18

Total Points: 44
LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13LSU20Florida10LSU -5.5LSU47.5Under
202411/16Florida27LSU16LSU -3Florida57.0Under
202311/11LSU52Florida35LSU -14LSU68.5Over
202210/15Florida35LSU45Florida -2LSU51.5Over
202110/16LSU49Florida42Florida -12.5LSU61.0Over
202012/12Florida34LSU37Florida -23LSU65.5Over
201910/12LSU42Florida28LSU -14Push55.5Over
201810/06Florida27LSU19LSU -1Florida44.0Over
201710/07Florida16LSU17LSU -1.5Florida44.0Under
201611/19LSU10Florida16LSU -10.5Florida38.0Under
201510/17LSU35Florida28LSU -6.5LSU43.5Over
201410/11Florida27LSU30LSU -1LSU0
201310/12LSU17Florida6LSU -5LSU0
201210/06Florida14LSU6
201110/08LSU41Florida11
201010/09Florida29LSU33
200910/10LSU3Florida13
200810/11Florida51LSU21
200710/06LSU28Florida24
200610/07Florida23LSU10
200510/15LSU21Florida17
200410/09Florida21LSU24
200310/11LSU7Florida19
200210/12Florida7LSU36
200110/06LSU15Florida44
200010/06Florida41LSU9
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU1687 Overs
Florida1044 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 118 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams11 - 154 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#30) FLA at (#31) LSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLALSU
Power RatePwr #30 #31
SP+SP+ #62 #33
Perf GradeGrade #52 #83
OffenseOff #53 #102
DefenseDef #58 #39
Spec TeamsST #89 #65
TalentTal #15 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #4
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
LSU Notes
(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffLSU Def
Perf GradePerf #53 #39
SuccessSuc #80 #23
ExplosiveExp #129 #66
PPAPPA #89 #20
PowerPwr #27 #7
SP+SP+ #84 #9
Pts POPPO #42 #17
HavocHav #61 #26
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #42 #64
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #29
Run ExplRExp #127 #48
PPAExp #55 #21
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #18
Stuff RateStuff #22 #10
TackleTak -  #86
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #94 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #113 #31
Pass ExplPExl #82 #78
PPAExp #109 #26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #96
F7 HavocF7 #74 #83
DB HavocDB #59 #6
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #58
SuccessSuc #111 #89
ExplosiveExp #114 #68
PPAPPA #125 #83
PowerPwr #80 #32
SP+SP+ #90 #45
Pts POPPO #115 #55
HavocHav #111 #98
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #121 #46
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #71
Run ExplRExp #93 #52
PPAExp #124 #59
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #53
Stuff RateStuff #131 #91
TackleTak -  #19
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #39 #78
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #107
Pass ExplPExl #128 #86
PPAExp #112 #93
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #98
F7 HavocF7 #111 #83
DB HavocDB #103 #90
Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 95°
Rematch from Week 3
LSU -5.5 (47.5)
LSU won vs Florida this year (20-10)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat LSU last year (27-16)
LSU beat Florida in 2023 (52-35)
LSU beat Florida in 2022 (45-35)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004

LSU's OC Alex Atkins (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier19428867%19271256.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Ju'Juan Johnson4115523.856
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)4812912.735
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Barion Brown (Tr)53532110.041
Zavion Thomas41488411.962
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142
Aaron Anderson33398012.139

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davhon Keys894162
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)881004
West Weeks768311
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins558462
West Weeks768311
DJ Pickett353203
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)4500111
P.J. Woodland382128
Patrick Payton (Tr)335126