Texas Tech at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas Tech logo (#7)Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -7.5 (52.5) (-325)  Open: -4.0
Arizona State 26 - Texas Tech: 22  (Big 12)

 
Red Raiders (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (23 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 11 (37 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Texas Tech -17.5  (SP+ TTU -25)
Projected Score: TTU: 34 - ASU: 17 (51)
TTU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TTU Travel: 579 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.563.5W 67 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.560.0W 62 - 14ON
Sat 9/13 Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.561.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Texas Tech at Utah+3.558.5W 34 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas Tech at Houston-13.551.5W 35 - 11UY
Sat 10/11 Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.558.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.552.5L 22 - 26UN
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.556.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.551.5W 43 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 Texas Tech vs BYU-13.550.5W 29 - 7UY
Sat 11/15 Texas Tech vs UCF-24.548.5W 48 - 9OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.553.5W 49 - 0UY
Sat 12/6 Texas Tech vs BYU-12.550.5W 34 - 7UY
Thu 1/1 Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.550.5L 0 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#22 (.27)44% (49)39.444% (59)2.9 (77)17845% (38)2684.15 (34)#1 (-.09)30% (1)11.331% (3)30% (2)2.48 (5)53.112.2
ASU#87 (.14)40% (101)25.843% (71)2.98 (61)17438% (108)1953.32 (109)#32 (.09)40% (48)24.540% (50)39% (45)3.32 (38)55.21.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Offense1439.436.644.2%4.151224461782684.847%52%44%45%15%.27
ASU Defense1324.521.439.8%3.321.1 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Defense1411.313.430.1%2.482.2 - - - - - 41%57%31%30%24%-.09
ASU Offense1325.824.739.9%3.321.419369174195551%47%43%38%17%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas Tech1428:352250%58%6.453.112.26.92.8237
Arizona State1329:3019.433%63%6.955.21.41.16.22.5027.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Offense1447% (93)44% (59)37178.44.830 (26).19 (35)2.9 (77)82% (6)9% (45)1.07 (31)
ASU Defense1346% (24)40% (50) - - - - .01 (18)2.68 (27)71% (64)11% (26)0.9 (40)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Defense1441% (1)31% (3) - - - - -.12 (1)2.01 (1)62% (11)15% (4)0.88 (27)
ASU Offense1351% (53)43% (71)35.2174.2516 (78).13 (63)2.98 (61)66% (104)10% (82)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Offense1452% (40)45% (38)21.432.4267.98.312.533 (5)8 (88).38 (29)1.6 (38)33% (94)33% (33).42 (29)6% (78)2.2 (24)
ASU Defense1353% (119)39% (45) - - - - - - 7 (55).17 (35)1.5 (47)33% (45)29% (65).22 (36)8% (13)2 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Defense1457% (135)30% (2) - - - - - - 16 (22)-.02 (3)1.4 (9)40% (1)21% (2).06 (4)9% (8)1.8 (16)
ASU Offense1347% (88)38% (108)17.230.2194.86.511.317 (86)8 (20).23 (76)1.6 (43)32% (85)27% (98).26 (87)8% (119)1.9 (90)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 26.25  #9
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.67  #36
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: -11.15  #3
2025 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 20%  #26
Texas Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Texas Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 29.9  #3
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #2
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3  #4

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 26.25   Arizona State: 10.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 29.9   Arizona State: 4.8




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.62  #38
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 6.90  #79
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -4.54  #17
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #71
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.6
Defense: 11.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.4

Texas Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 34
Arizona State 17


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 30
Arizona State 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 31
Arizona State 19

Total Points: 50
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Arizona State26Texas Tech22Texas Tech -7.5Arizona State52.5Under
202409/21Texas Tech30Arizona State22Texas Tech -4.5Texas Tech58.5Under
201709/16Texas Tech52Arizona State45Texas Tech -7Push74.0Over
201609/10Arizona State68Texas Tech55Arizona State -5Arizona State80.0Over
201312/30Texas Tech37Arizona State23Arizona State -17Texas Tech72.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State222 Overs
Texas Tech323 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 04 - 02 - 02 - 0
Road Teams0 - 50 - 40 - 20 - 2

(#9) TTU at (#38) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTTUASU
Power RatePwr #9 #38
SP+SP+ #3 #53
Perf GradeGrade #3 #89
OffenseOff #12 #93
DefenseDef #1 #63
Spec TeamsST #3 #113
TalentTal #28 #27
Blue ChipsBC% #26 #49
Texas Tech Notes
(10/27) QB Morton cleared to play vs Kansas State
(10/26) QB2 Hammond out for the season (tore ACL)
(10/22) DT Gil Howard out until postseason?
(10/18) Pass Def torched by ASU, Off only 276 yds w/o Morton
(10/18) QB Hammond was bad, Run Off bad vs ASU.
(9/23) QB Will Hammond looked better than Morton
(9/22) Has 3 guys in top 15 in QB hurries thru 4 games
(9/20) Class of B12, killed Utah, Def best in conference
(8/18) #1 RB Q Joyner torn ACL, out for the season
(6/14) WR #1 Douglas, 2 Eakin, 3 Virgil missed spring
(5/23) T Tech was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/23) DL starters could dominate B12, depth good
Texas Tech Injury Report
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Texas Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffASU Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #63
SuccessSuc #49 #48
ExplosiveExp #18 #52
PPAPPA #22 #32
PowerPwr #36 #17
SP+SP+ #2 #36
Pts POPPO #34 #38
HavocHav #58 #14
Texas Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffASU Def
Run GameRun #13 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #59 #50
Run ExplRExp #31 #40
PPAExp #35 #18
Run BlockR Blk #45 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #27
Stuff RateStuff #53 #35
TackleTak -  #42
Texas Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #45
Pass ExplPExl #38 #47
PPAExp #29 #35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #22 #117
F7 HavocF7 #45 #26
DB HavocDB #78 #13
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerf #93 #1
SuccessSuc #101 #1
ExplosiveExp #66 #14
PPAPPA #87 #1
PowerPwr #79 #3
SP+SP+ #71 #4
Pts POPPO #109 #5
HavocHav #107 #2
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #33 #1
Run SuccessRSuc #71 #3
Run ExplRExp #66 #27
PPAExp #63 #1
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #1
Stuff RateStuff #83 #11
TackleTak -  #2
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #96 #1
Pass SuccessPSuc #108 #2
Pass ExplPExl #43 #9
PPAExp #76 #3
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #2
F7 HavocF7 #82 #4
DB HavocDB #119 #8
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TTU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82°
Rematch from Week 8
Texas Tech 7.5 (52.5)
Arizona State won vs Texas Tech this year (26-22)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat Arizona State last year (30-22)

  
TTU's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton20130167%26432248.8
Will Hammond6810863%668736.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Dickey2001109145.571
J'Koby Williams14178565.643
Will Hammond4329957.064
Adam Hill4524005.336
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Douglas53830715.761
Reginald Virgil55676612.342
Coy Eakin48642613.442
Terrance Carter (Tr)46552512.050

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez11110116
Ben Roberts723035
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)695106
John Curry684124
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Bailey (Tr)421814101
Romello Height (Tr)32109131
Anthony Holmes Jr. (Tr)3710574
Lee Hunter (Tr)359330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez11110116
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)695106
Dontae Balfour (Tr)231005

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims7815052%886755.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims9345234.988
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain22378017.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio21303214.468

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Jordan Crook928212
Myles Rowser794013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly366622
Prince Dorbah188471
Clayton Smith197420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren352017