
Oregon State Beavers (@BeaverFootball)
Record: 0 - 0 (0 - 0) | Proj: 5 - 7 (#96) | SOS: (#88)

Oregon State enters 2026 as one of the most heavily rebuilt programs in the country under first-year HC JaMarcus Shephard, with a net portal loss of -19 (38 out, 19 in), only 8 returning starters, and an entirely new coaching staff inheriting a 2-10 team. The central competition of spring camp is between FCS Jerry Rice Award winner Braden Atkinson — who threw for 3,611 yards and 34 TDs at Mercer — and returning starter Maalik Murphy, with no public frontrunner through Day 3 of spring practice. The OL is the most structurally damaged unit: four contributors totaling 21 combined 2025 starts transferred out (three to Power Four programs), leaving the Beavers with portal fills attempting to anchor a line that struggled even before the exodus. OSU faces a near-impossible early draw — at Houston as 16-point underdogs, then hosting Texas Tech as 29-point underdogs — meaning Shephard's first meaningful test of roster competitiveness likely won't come until Week 3 vs. Montana.
Key Storylines
- QB competition unresolved: Braden Atkinson (2025 FCS Jerry Rice Award winner, 3,611 yards/34 TDs at Mercer) vs. returning starter Maalik Murphy — no frontrunner named through spring camp Day 3, making this the defining question of the Shephard era's opening act
- OL in structural crisis after losing four contributors (Strand, Sikorski, Berger, Hawkes — 21 combined 2025 starts) to the portal; three incoming portal OL adds are projected starters on a unit that was already below average in 2025
- Full program reset under first-year HC JaMarcus Shephard (ex-Alabama WR coach): net portal loss of -19 players, entirely new coaching staff, cultural overhaul underway — spring camp framed internally as a rebuild from scratch rather than a retool
- Pass rush is the biggest defensive unknown: Shamar Meikle (EDGE) transferred out with no proven replacement, and OSU is banking on FCS transfers (Findlayter from Duquesne, Dylan Layne from Idaho) and 2026 recruits to generate pressure in what projects as a below-average D-line
- Brutal early schedule provides almost no margin for error: Oregon State opens at Houston (-16 dogs, 12% win probability) then hosts Texas Tech (-29 dogs, 1% win probability) before any expected wins — a 0-2 start is the likely outcome before the schedule softens
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Oregon State at Houston | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Oregon State vs Texas Tech | +28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Oregon State vs Montana | -17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Oregon State at UTEP | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Oregon State at Colorado State | +0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Oregon State vs San Diego State | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Oregon State vs Washington State | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Oregon State at Fresno State | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Oregon State vs Texas State | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Oregon State at Boise State | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Oregon State vs Utah State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
Schedule Rating: #88
Future 2027 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Oregon State vs California | -3.0L15–34 | 51.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Oregon State vs Fresno State | -1.0L27–36 | 45.5 | L27–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Oregon State at Texas Tech | +24.5L7–45 | 61.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Oregon State at Oregon | +33.5L7–41 | 58.5 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Fri 9/26 | Oregon State vs Houston | +11.5L24–27 | 48.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Oregon State at App State | +1.5L23–27 | 53.5 | L23–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Oregon State vs Wake Forest | +1.5L14–39 | 47.5 | L14–39 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oregon State vs Lafayette | -21.0W45–13 | 56.5 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Oregon State vs Washington State | +3.5W10–7 | 47.5 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Oregon State vs Sam Houston | -21.0L17–21 | 52.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Oregon State at Tulsa | +1.5L14–31 | 50.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Oregon State at Washington State | +14.0L8–32 | 42.5 | L8–32 | U | N |
2025 Record: 2 - 10 (PAC: 1 - 1)
Spread Record 3 - 9 - 0 | O/U 4 - 8
2025 class: 189 points #62
2024 class: 176 points #71
2023 class: 198 points #35
2022 class: 185 points #53
Average Class Ranking: #65
Average Recruiting Points: 184
Declining Below Avg P4
4 Year Class: #75 - Best: #35 Worst: #105
CFB Crootin Averages
Pac-12 Class: 180 #86
Group of 5 Class: 169 #101
FBS Class: 198 #70
2020 class: 186 points #51
2019 class: 190 points #55
2018 class: 174 points #59
2017 class: 181 points #60
Average Class Ranking: #62
Average Recruiting Points: 173
2026 Portal Class #73 - 20 players, 84 Avg
2025 Portal Class #60 - 14 players, 85 Avg
2024 Portal Class #54 - 16 players, 86 Avg
2023 Portal Class #57 - 7 players, 88 Avg
2022 Portal Class #135 - 1 players, 86 Avg
2021 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
2020 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
2019 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Atkinson (Tr) | 268 | 407 | 66% | 3611 | 34 | 11 | 8.9 |
| Maalik Murphy | 160 | 276 | 58% | 1802 | 9 | 8 | 6.5 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell Hatcher Jr. | 52 | 292 | 2 | 5.6 | 42 |
| AJ Newberry (Tr) | 18 | 57 | 3 | 3.2 | 16 |
| Xayvion Noland (Tr) | 2 | 55 | 0 | 27.5 | 52 |
| Eric Olsen (Tr) | 7 | 31 | 0 | 4.4 | 8 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xayvion Noland (Tr) | 37 | 776 | 7 | 21.0 | 76 |
| Adonis McDaniel (Tr) | 52 | 676 | 6 | 13.0 | 56 |
| Eric Olsen (Tr) | 51 | 566 | 2 | 11.1 | 49 |
| Gabe Milbourn | 17 | 185 | 1 | 10.9 | 26 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiden Sullivan | 72 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Takari Hickle | 38 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Sailasa Vadrawale | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Tyree Blake | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takari Hickle | 38 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jacob Schuster | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Aiden Sullivan | 72 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Jaylen Hill | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Glasper | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Sailasa Vadrawale | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Jacob Schuster | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Overall Returning Production: 65% #65
Offense Returning Production: 62% #98
Defense Returning Production: 68% #36
Oregon State's Official Roster
2026 Portal Class #73
20 Commits, 84.5 Avg Rating
33% of 2026 Roster from Portal, 22% TY
2026 Talent Rating: 620.00 #78
Offense Talent #72 | Defense Talent #80
2025 #61 | 2024 #83 | 2023 #79 | 2022 #54
2026 Record: 0 - 0
2026 Conf Record: 0 - 0
Spread: 0 - 0 - 0 | Totals: 0 - 0
2025 Record: 2 - 10
2025 Conf Record: 1 - 1
Spread: 3 - 9 - 0 | Totals: 4 - 8
2024 Record: 5 - 7
2024 Conf Record: 1 - 0
Spread: 4 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 7
2023 Record: 8 - 5
2023 Conf Record: 5 - 4
Spread: 6 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6
Four Year Record: 15 - 22
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 13 - 24 - 0
Four Year Conference Record: 7 - 5
2022 Record: 10 - 3
2022 Conf Record: 6 - 3
Spread: 11 - 2 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6
2021 Record: 7 - 6
2021 Conf Record: 5 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7
2020 Record: 2 - 5
2020 Conf Record: 2 - 5
Spread: 4 - 3 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 2
2019 Record: 5 - 7
2019 Conf Record: 4 - 5
Spread: 9 - 3 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6
Eight Year Record: 39 - 43
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 44 - 38 - 0
Eight Year Conference Record: 29 - 22
| Oregon State Recent Bowl History | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Bowl | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result |
| 2023 | Sun Bowl | Oregon State vs Notre Dame | +5.5 | 40.5 | L 8 - 40 |
| 2022 | Vegas Bowl | Oregon State vs Florida | -7.5 | 52.0 | W 30 - 3 |
| 2021 | La Bowl | Oregon State vs Utah State | -7.0 | 68.0 | L 13 - 24 |
| Teams | Offense PPA | Offense Expl | Offense Success | Offense Pts Per Opp | Avg Start FP | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Defense PPA | Defense Expl | Defense Success | Defense Pts Per Opp | Opponent FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .05 (124) | 1.05 (135) | 42% (68) | 2.89 (128) | 28.3 (89) | 36% | 40% | .18 (77) | 1.44 (133) | 38% (25) | 3.41 (46) | 31.8 (127) |
| Teams | Offense PPA | Offense Expl | Offense Success | Offense Pts Per Opp | Avg Start FP | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Defense PPA | Defense Expl | Defense Success | Defense Pts Per Opp | Opponent FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .16 (87) | 1.16 (124) | 44% (59) | 3.87 (75) | 24.9 (134) | 44% | 52% | .27 (117) | 1.19 (31) | 48% (125) | 4.35 (117) | 30.4 (108) |
More Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | 31:52 | 20.4 | 36% | 40% | 5.9 | 49.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | 33:09 | 22.3 | 44% | 52% | 5.1 | 45.7 | 1.3 | 1 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 1 |
Overall Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PPG | Home | Road | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Offense | 12 | 17.6 | 21.7 | 11.8 | 42.3% (68) | 2.89 (128) | 1.7 | 20 | 353 | 127 | 225 | 3.8 | 46% (98) | 52% (36) | 44% (67) | 42% (68) | 16% (89) | .05 (124) |
| 2025 Defense | 12 | 29.4 | 25.3 | 35.2 | 38.3% (25) | 3.41 (46) | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | - | 49% (59) | 49% (81) | 41% (51) | 36% (18) | 17% (36) | .18 (77) |
| Teams | Games | PPG | Home | Road | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Offense | 12 | 24.3 | 29.7 | 16.6 | 43.6% (59) | 3.87 (75) | 1.3 | 22 | 391 | 189 | 201 | 4.7 | 55% (33) | 45% (101) | 47% (25) | 39% (100) | 15% (56) | .16 (87) |
| 2024 Defense | 12 | 29.9 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 48% (125) | 4.35 (117) | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 56% (125) | 44% (13) | 50% (126) | 45% (112) | 13% (115) | .27 (117) |
Run Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Offense | 12 | 46% (98) | 44% (67) | 33.9 | 127.3 | 3.8 | 15 (60) | .01 (120) | 2.82 (89) | 77% (30) | 9% (61) | 0.73 (135) |
| 2025 Defense | 12 | 49% (59) | 41% (51) | - | - | - | - | .07 (52) | 2.6 (17) | 68% (43) | 10% (57) | 0.94 (57) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Offense | 12 | 55% (33) | 47% (25) | 40.3 | 189.2 | 4.7 | 29 (18) | .22 (25) | 3.34 (20) | 76% (46) | 9% (50) | 0.97 (65) |
| 2024 Defense | 12 | 56% (125) | 50% (126) | - | - | - | - | .23 (120) | 3.39 (123) | 81% (114) | 8% (122) | 0.96 (55) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Offense | 12 | 52% (36) | 42% (68) | 21.7 | 35.9 | 225.4 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 14 (61) | 13 (127) | .11 (123) | 1.3 (133) | 31% (68) | 28% (96) | .05 (131) | 7% (110) | 1.7 (134) |
| 2025 Defense | 12 | 49% (81) | 36% (18) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (55) | .31 (98) | 2 (136) | 33% (44) | 29% (69) | .44 (126) | 7% (15) | 2.5 (136) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Offense | 12 | 45% (101) | 39% (100) | 18 | 30 | 201.4 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 7 (130) | 11 (72) | .09 (125) | 1.4 (123) | 28% (20) | 31% (78) | .16 (123) | 6% (84) | 1.8 (124) |
| 2024 Defense | 12 | 44% (13) | 45% (112) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5 (117) | .31 (104) | 1.5 (41) | 27% (126) | 33% (102) | .46 (121) | 6% (75) | 2.1 (70) |
(3/1) QB Atkinson (Mercer) a big add, can sling it ❌
(3/1) RB not much here, not much exp. Who emerges? ❌
(3/1) WR McDaniel (w/ QB), TE Olsen big target ❌
(3/1) OL eh.. not great. 3 portals, 2 are starters ❌
(3/1) Def lots of FCS adds, LB/DE mix, DL has ? ❌
(3/1) Pass rush concerns, need FCS hits ❌
(3/1) CBs look good, Safeties very inexp'd. ❌
Overall
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PAC 1 - 1
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(OC) Mitch Dahlen 1
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