James Madison at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview
James Madison logo (#25)James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks(#5)Oregon logo
Saturday, December 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Oregon -22.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: -21.0 | 50.0
Oregon 51 - James Madison: 34  (CFP First Round Game)

 
Dukes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (34 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.1 - 1.9 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Oregon -18  (SP+ ORE -13)

Projected Score: JMU: 17 - ORE: 35 (52)
ORE Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
JMU Travel: 2301 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Ducks (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 38 - 15 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 James Madison vs Weber State-26.554.5W 45 - 10OY
Fri 9/5 James Madison at Louisville+15.057.0L 14 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 James Madison at Liberty-7.546.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.554.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 10/4 James Madison at Georgia State-19.552.5W 14 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 James Madison vs Louisiana-18.544.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/18 James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.047.5W 63 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 James Madison at Texas State-7.555.5W 52 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 James Madison at Marshall-13.553.5W 35 - 23ON
Sat 11/15 James Madison vs App State-21.053.5W 58 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 James Madison vs Washington State-15.044.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/29 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.054.5W 59 - 10OY
Fri 12/5 James Madison vs Troy-24.547.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 12/20 James Madison at Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 7
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-33.558.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+4.552.5W 30 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-7.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.562.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.544.5W 21 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-4.541.5W 18 - 16UN
Fri 11/14 Oregon vs Minnesota-26.545.5W 42 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-10.559.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-6.551.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 12/20 Oregon vs James Madison-22.547.5W 51 - 34ON
Thu 1/1 Oregon vs Texas Tech+1.550.5W 23 - 0UY
Fri 1/9 Oregon vs Indiana+4.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#37 (.22)45% (38)37.148% (20)3.17 (29)23042% (61)1883.98 (43)#10 (.04)31% (2)18.433% (6)30% (3)3.41 (50)64.41.11.1
ORE#2 (.39)51% (5)3853% (2)3.37 (10)18750% (11)2124.4 (24)#14 (.04)37% (17)15.140% (48)34% (12)3.86 (90)43.40.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)47% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)34% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Offense1437.134.145%3.981.1214192301885.757%41%48%42%13%.22
ORE Defense1415.116.836.8%3.861.2 - - - - - 49%49%40%34%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Defense1418.421.731.5%3.411.1 - - - - - 47%52%33%30%20%.04
ORE Offense143843.151%4.40.6193991872125.852%46%53%50%9%.39

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
James Madison1431:3920.947%41%6.664.41.11.15.92.5332.6
Oregon1426:3119.449%64%4.543.40.61.24.11.6430.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Offense1457% (18)48% (20)40.2230.45.736 (16).21 (25)3.17 (29)77% (35)7% (18)1.04 (43)
ORE Defense1449% (55)40% (48) - - - - .06 (49)2.73 (37)75% (99)9% (83)0.94 (59)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Defense1447% (31)33% (6) - - - - (17)2.35 (6)57% (4)11% (26)1.07 (117)
ORE Offense1452% (47)53% (2)32.2187.25.830 (16).34 (3)3.37 (10)80% (15)6% (5)1.06 (32)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Offense1441% (118)42% (61)14.424188.17.813.124 (61)10 (34).29 (50)1.7 (22)31% (69)31% (64).26 (89)6% (73)2 (67)
ORE Defense1449% (83)34% (12) - - - - - - 13 (22).1 (18)1.6 (95)36% (15)27% (27).17 (23)9% (3)2 (49)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Defense1452% (105)30% (3) - - - - - - 12 (38).1 (17)1.8 (130)39% (3)24% (12).13 (12)9% (5)1.9 (41)
ORE Offense1446% (93)50% (11)17.424211.58.812.225 (6)6 (34).48 (7)1.6 (47)25% (7)31% (58).39 (36)3% (4)2.1 (57)

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 9.92  #43
James Madison's Offense Rating: 9.35  #66
James Madison's Defense Rating: -0.57  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 482.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
James Madison's 2025 Expected Record: 12.1 - 1.9
James Madison's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.5  #24
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #25
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #25

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 9.92   Oregon: 30.075

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 14.5   Oregon: 27.1




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 30.075  #3
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.91  #8
Oregon's Defense Rating: -10.88  #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.1  #13
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.4  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.1
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

James Madison's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 35
James Madison 17


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
James Madison 35
Oregon 24

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 30
James Madison 26

Total Points: 56
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 15.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/20Oregon51James Madison34Oregon -22.5James Madison47.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon101 Overs
James Madison010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

James Madison Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP 1st Round James Madison vs Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51
2024Raton Bowl James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.550.5W 27 - 17
2023Forces Bowl James Madison vs Air Force+2.544.5L 21 - 31
Oregon Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Oregon vs Texas Tech+1.550.5W 23 - 0
2025CFP 1st Round Oregon vs James Madison-22.547.5W 51 - 34
2024CFP Quarterfinal Oregon vs Ohio State+2.555.5L 21 - 41
2023Fiesta Bowl Oregon vs Liberty-18.571.5W 45 - 6
2022Holiday Bowl Oregon vs North Carolina-13.076.0W 28 - 27
2021Alamo Bowl Oregon vs Oklahoma+7.064.0L 32 - 47
2020Fiesta Bowl Oregon vs Iowa State+4.557.5L 17 - 34
2019Rose Bowl Oregon vs Wisconsin+3.053.0W 28 - 27
  
(#43) JMU at (#3) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJMUORE
Power RatePwr #43 #3
SP+SP+ #24 #4
Perf GradeGrade #7 #6
OffenseOff #16 #4
DefenseDef #5 #11
Spec TeamsST #59 #17
TalentTal #120 #3
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #5
James Madison Notes
(12/6) Sun Belt champs, beat Troy. Could be CFP bound?
(12/5) Hiring Billy Napier (UF) after Chesney took UCLA job
(12/4) Only its 4th FBS season & could make CFP. Incredible
(12/3) HC Bob Chesney has taken UCLA job, will coach '25
(10/29) Just murdering SBC, very much a G5 CFP threat
(10/22) Leads CFB in Defensive Success Rate, Off Good
(10/21) Off shredded ODU for 624, 311 rushing, 12-16 on 3rd
(9/20) Good W @ Liberty, Def incredible. Run Off good
(9/5) QB Barnett holds too long, not pocket aware
(9/5) Def front 7 dominant. Shut down Louisville
(9/2) QB Barnett started opener, Run Off mauled FCS
(8/25) QB Barnett cleared to play, is a top SBC QB
James Madison Injury Report
Oregon Notes
(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report
James Madison on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffORE Def
Perf GradePerf #16 #11
SuccessSuc #38 #17
ExplosiveExp #42 #65
PPAPPA #37 #14
PowerPwr #66 #4
SP+SP+ #25 #5
Pts POPPO #43 #90
HavocHav #34 #23
James Madison Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffORE Def
Run GameRun #8 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #48
Run ExplRExp #43 #59
PPAExp #25 #49
Run BlockR Blk #16 -
OL YdsOLY #29 #37
Stuff RateStuff #65 #100
TackleTak -  #7
James Madison Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #61 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #61 #12
Pass ExplPExl #22 #95
PPAExp #50 #18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #46
F7 HavocF7 #18 #83
DB HavocDB #73 #3
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffJMU Def
Perf GradePerf #4 #5
SuccessSuc #5 #2
ExplosiveExp #35 #132
PPAPPA #2 #10
PowerPwr #8 #29
SP+SP+ #13 #25
Pts POPPO #24 #50
HavocHav #3 #7
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffJMU Def
Run GameRun #1 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #6
Run ExplRExp #32 #117
PPAExp #3 #17
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #10 #6
Stuff RateStuff #16 #7
TackleTak -  #21
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffJMU Def
Pass GamePass #5 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #11 #3
Pass ExplPExl #47 #130
PPAExp #7 #17
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #26
F7 HavocF7 #5 #26
DB HavocDB #4 #5
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 40°
Rematch from Week 1
Oregon -22.5 (47.5)
Oregon won vs James Madison this year (51-34)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Matthew Sluka (Tr)81173%100329.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight207137396.673
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Jordan Fuller (Tr)8241555.126
Jobi Malary4334948.173
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Nick DeGennaro (Tr)28500517.976
Wayne Knight4039719.957
Jaylan Sanchez (Tr)30396113.280

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trent Hendrick967323
Tyler Brown715105
Jacob Thomas653237
Drew Spinogatti517163
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West4614774
Xavier Holmes (Tr)317664
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Trent Hendrick967323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale3630112
Justin Eaglin350008
Elijah Culp (Tr)444017

ORE's OC Will Stein (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore24634072%30462889.0
Brock Thomas121675%130108.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11679866.968
Jordon Davison97625136.467
Dierre Hill Jr.6555758.666
Jayden Limar4325936.053
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)36645617.964
Kenyon Sadiq42509812.130
Jeremiah McClellan31480315.551
Dakorien Moore29448315.465

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher1095154
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)713115
Teitum Tuioti6014875
Aaron Flowers601012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti6014875
Matayo Uiagalelei309573
Nasir Wyatt92210
A'Mauri Washington315256
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Finney Jr.343107
Ify Obidegwu221006
A'Mauri Washington315256