North Carolina Tar Heels Team Profile
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North Carolina Tar Heels (@UNCFootball)
Bill Belichick (1st year) (0-0)
Record: 0 - 0  |  Prediction: 7 - 5 (#56)  |  SOS: (#66)
Power (#52)  | Off (#47)  | Def (#61)  |  Roster  |  Portals  |  Croots
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North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU-2.558.5UN
Fri 9/5 North Carolina at Charlotte-22.5
Fri 9/12 North Carolina vs Richmond-26.5
Fri 9/19 North Carolina at UCF-1.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 North Carolina vs Clemson+17.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 North Carolina at California-2.5
Fri 10/24 North Carolina vs Virginia-6.5
Thu 10/30 North Carolina at Syracuse+4.5
Fri 11/7 North Carolina vs Stanford-11.5
Fri 11/14 North Carolina at Wake Forest-8
Fri 11/21 North Carolina vs Duke+1
Fri 11/28 North Carolina at NC State+5

Record Prediction: 7.0 - 5.0 #56
Schedule Rating: #66
Future 2026 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 North Carolina at Minnesota-2.052.5W 19 - 17UN
Sat 9/7 North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.547.5W 38 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.557.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 North Carolina vs James Madison-10.048.0L 50 - 70ON
Sat 9/28 North Carolina at Duke-1.055.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 10/5 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.563.0L 24 - 34UN
Sat 10/12 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.560.5L 34 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 North Carolina at Virginia+3.558.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/2 North Carolina at Florida State-2.550.5W 35 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.564.5W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/23 North Carolina at Boston College-2.050.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 North Carolina vs NC State-2.554.5L 30 - 35ON
Sat 12/28 North Carolina vs UConn-2.053.5L 14 - 27UN

2024 Schedule Rating: #69
2024 Record: 6 - 7 (ACC: 3 - 5)
Spread Record 2 - 10 - 1 | O/U 5 - 8

Opponents: 1 Elite, 2 Good, 4 Avg, 3 Bad, 2 Poor
Reg Season Opponents: 0 Elite, 1 Good, 7 Avg, 2 Bad, 2 Poor

Show Past Schedules
2025 class: 206 points  #43
2024 class: 229 points  #26
2023 class: 219 points  #29
2022 class: 259 points  #11
2021 class: 254 points  #14

Average Class Ranking:  #25
Average Recruiting Points: 233
Class Averages
ACC Class: 211 #42
Power 4 Class: 225 #42
FBS Class: 179 #69

2020 class: 247 points  #19
2019 class: 219 points  #30
2018 class: 232 points  #20
2017 class: 208 points  #29
2016 class: 205 points  #32

Average Class Ranking:  #26
Average Recruiting Points: 222
 
Offensive Coordinator Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez20531166%25571858.2
Max Johnson121963%71013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Giovanni Lopez8246575.750
Davion Gause6732644.921
Charleston French108418.445
Caleb Hood188104.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Paysour21365017.436
Aziah Johnson (Tr)16276217.352
Chris Culliver6135122.550
Jordan Shipp9114112.722
(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost613104
Gavin Gibson (Tr)527013
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)496133
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pryce Yates (Tr)217451
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)83210
C.J. Mims (Tr)214100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)4320010
Kaleb Cost613104
Khmori House (Tr)331014
Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 53% #78
Offense Returning Production: 52% #80
Defense Returning Production: 54% #69
Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class #9
32 Commits, 87.2 Avg Rating
33% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 40% TY
Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 834.00 #37
Offense Talent #43 | Defense Talent #36
2024 #18 | 2023 #16 | 2022 #16 | 2021 #17
2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 0 - 0
2025 Conf Record: 0 - 0
Spread: 0 - 0 - 0 | Totals: 0 - 0

2024 Record: 6 - 7
2024 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 2 - 10 - 1 | Totals: 5 - 8

2023 Record: 8 - 5
2023 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 6 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7

2022 Record: 9 - 5
2022 Conf Record: 6 - 3
Spread: 6 - 7 - 1 | Totals: 6 - 8

Four Year Record: 23 - 17
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 14 - 24 - 2
Four Year Conference Record: 13 - 12
2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 6 - 7
2021 Conf Record: 4 - 6
Spread: 5 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 5

2020 Record: 8 - 4
2020 Conf Record: 7 - 3
Spread: 5 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2019 Record: 7 - 6
2019 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

2018 Record: 2 - 9
2018 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 5 - 5 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 4

Eight Year Record: 46 - 43
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 36 - 49 - 3
Eight Year Conference Record: 35 - 32

North Carolina Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Fenway Bowl North Carolina vs UConn-2.053.5L 14 - 27
2023Mayo Bowl North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30
2022Holiday Bowl North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28
2021Mayo Bowl North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.557.5L 21 - 38
2020Orange Bowl North Carolina vs Texas A&M+7.067.5L 27 - 41
2019Military Bowl North Carolina vs Temple-6.056.5W 55 - 13
2016N/A North Carolina vs Stanford+2.555.0L 23 - 25
2015Athletic Bowl North Carolina vs Baylor+3.5L 38 - 49
Power Ranking Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2024.2 (65)42% (80)4.08 (52)29.1 (70)40%50%.17 (70)41% (53)4.01 (90)29.8 (90)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2023.3 (17)47% (19)4.13 (45)31.3 (17)49%45%.21 (86)42% (70)3.41 (35)32.6 (122)



More Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20241327:42 (80)20.2 (54)40%50%6.8 (112)59.8 (112)1.2 (53)1.25.2 (63)2.8 (14)6
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20231328:34 (83)24.5 (7)49%45%7.2 (117)66.3 (126)1.3 (53)1.75.4 (58)2.1 (51)1



Overall Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2024 Offense1330.93627.242% (80)4.08 (52)1.2203911752164.952% (53)47% (82)47% (34)37% (114)15% (49).2 (65)
2024 Defense1328.133.420.840.5% (53)4.01 (90)1.2 - - - - - 53% (92)46% (38)44% (82)37% (26)15% (90).17 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2023 Offense1334.540.730.846.8% (19)4.13 (45)1.3254921932995.146% (97)53% (36)50% (16)44% (44)13% (17).3 (17)
2023 Defense1327.3243542.2% (70)3.41 (35)1.7 - - - - - 50% (70)49% (63)43% (68)42% (76)15% (92).21 (86)



Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2024 Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
2024 Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2023 Offense1346% (97)50% (16)38.2193.25.128 (25).28 (9)3.41 (11)75% (52)8% (31)1.03 (48)
2023 Defense1350% (70)43% (68) - - - - .2 (100)3.33 (112)73% (68)10% (85)1.02 (81)



Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2024 Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
2024 Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2023 Offense1353% (36)44% (44)22.535.4298.58.413.326 (31)11 (68).34 (47)1.6 (73)30% (33)32% (56).38 (55)5% (24)2.2 (21)
2023 Defense1349% (63)42% (76) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (82)1.6 (64)34% (43)34% (117).38 (100)6% (92)1.9 (22)




Power Ratings Overall: 1.77 #61
Offense: 15.19 #61
Defense: 13.42 #62
SP+ Overall: 4.6 #43
SP+ Offense: 31.4 #33
SP+ Defense: 26.8 #60
Returning Prod UNC lost their '24 starting QB (100%) #1
Returning Production: 53% #78
Offense: 52% #80 | Defense: 54% #69
OL Prod: 80% #21, 3 clear starters
OL Snaps: 5084 #4 | From Portal: 2662 #8
Rush Prod: 35% #100 | Rec Prod: 33% #97
Def Front Seven: 20% - Secondary: 65%
Roster Team Talent #37 Blue Chips: 16% #30
Offense Talent #43 Defense Talent #36
Crootin Class #43 - 4 YR Rank #25
Portal Class #9 - 32 players, 87 Avg
33% of Roster from Portal, 40% TY
62 New Players, 65% of '25 Roster #133

2025 Schedule Record Prediction: 7.0 - 5.0 #56
Vegas Win Total Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Schedule Rating: 8 #66
View Schedule & Predicted Results
Opps: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 4, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Scoring Scoring: 30.9 - 28.1 (35 - 27) in '24
Scoring at Home: 36 - 33 | Road: 27 - 21
OC: Freddie Kitchens - in his first season
DC: Stephen Belichick - in his first season
Records 2024 Record: 6 - 7 (2 - 10 - 1) (ACC: 3 - 5)
2023 Record: 8 - 5 (6 - 7 - 0) (ACC: 4 - 4)
2022 Record: 9 - 5 (6 - 7 - 1) (ACC: 6 - 3)
4 Yr Record: (23 - 17) | 8 Yr Record: (46 - 43)
 
'24 OffenseBalanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg Offensive Turnovers
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad 1st/2nd Down Success 68%
Poor when off Schedule 29%
'24 DefenseAvg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad at Forcing Turnovers
Poor Penalty Team, Avg Field Position
Avg 1st/2nd Down Success 68%
Great when Opp is off Schedule 26%
Team NotesOne of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no
Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9