Boise State at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#21)

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -21.5 (63.5) (-1600) Open: -16.5
Notre Dame 28 - Boise State: 7

Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

ND is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -26.5 (SP+ ND -20)
Projected Score: BSU: 19 - ND: 45 (64)
ND Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 1520 miles, 2 hrs behind

Fighting Irish (10 - 2) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Boise State at South Florida	-8.5	63.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Fri 9/5	Boise State vs Eastern Washington	-33.5	60.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Boise State at Air Force	-10.5	51.5	W 49 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Boise State vs App State	-16.5	59.5	W 47 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Boise State at Notre Dame	+21.5	63.5	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-14.5	58.5	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Boise State vs UNLV	-12.5	60.5	W 56 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/24	Boise State at Nevada	-20.5	51.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Boise State vs Fresno State	-17.5	47.5	L 7 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Boise State at San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	Boise State vs Colorado State	-17.5	46.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Boise State at Utah State	-1.5	54.5	W 25 - 24	U	N
Fri 12/5	Boise State vs UNLV	-6.0	60.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/13	Boise State vs Washington	+9.5	55.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Notre Dame at Miami	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Notre Dame vs Texas A&M	-7.5	48.5	L 40 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-24.5	51.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Notre Dame at Arkansas	-5.5	64.5	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Notre Dame vs Boise State	-21.5	63.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/11	Notre Dame vs NC State	-23.5	59.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Notre Dame vs USC	-10.5	60.5	W 34 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Notre Dame at Boston College	-31.5	55.5	W 25 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/8	Notre Dame vs Navy	-30.5	54.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Notre Dame at Pittsburgh	-12.5	55.5	W 37 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Notre Dame vs Syracuse	-36.5	51.5	W 70 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Notre Dame at Stanford	-32.5	50.5	W 49 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#44 (.2)	42% (77)	29.9	43% (80)	3.11 (39)	179	41% (83)	245	3.66 (73)	#53 (.12)	36% (14)	24.1	41% (50)	33% (6)	4.14 (111)	59.4	1.5	1.6
ND	#4 (.36)	49% (10)	42	47% (25)	3.05 (50)	204	51% (6)	255	4.79 (6)	#12 (.04)	36% (13)	17.6	38% (20)	36% (16)	2.58 (6)	53.1	0.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	41.8%	3.66	1.5	22	424	179	245	4.6	51%	47%	43%	41%	14%	.2
ND Defense	12	17.6	18	36.4%	2.58	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	38%	36%	18%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	36.5%	4.14	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	41%	33%	17%	.12
ND Offense	12	42	44.7	49%	4.79	0.8	23	460	204	255	5.9	53%	45%	47%	51%	13%	.36

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	32:50	22.1	46%	51%	6.9	59.4	1.5	1.6	6	2	3	30.6
Notre Dame	12	29:17	22.5	48%	55%	5.5	53.1	0.8	1.9	5.8	2.8	7	32.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	51% (51)	43% (80)	39.3	179.4	4.6	29 (30)	.16 (46)	3.11 (39)	79% (22)	8% (33)	1 (55)
ND Defense	12	43% (6)	38% (20)	-	-	-	-	.04 (37)	2.74 (39)	71% (66)	9% (77)	0.89 (32)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	52% (93)	41% (50)	-	-	-	-	.2 (120)	2.98 (88)	67% (39)	11% (28)	1.22 (134)
ND Offense	12	53% (38)	47% (25)	34.8	204.4	5.9	38 (11)	.25 (11)	3.05 (50)	62% (122)	8% (36)	1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	47% (82)	41% (83)	19.6	33.7	244.9	7.3	12.5	23 (22)	14 (88)	.27 (62)	1.6 (43)	33% (91)	31% (58)	.28 (74)	6% (66)	1.8 (124)
ND Defense	12	56% (132)	36% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.09 (8)	1.6 (93)	36% (9)	26% (24)	.17 (17)	9% (3)	2.1 (84)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	46% (45)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.08 (7)	1.7 (116)	37% (4)	28% (49)	.22 (33)	6% (81)	2.1 (87)
ND Offense	12	45% (95)	51% (6)	18.1	26.8	255.1	9.5	14.1	25 (33)	6 (34)	.45 (10)	1.7 (25)	29% (37)	44% (2)	.65 (3)	5% (35)	2 (65)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 0.57 #66
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41 #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84 #60
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #55
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #56
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 0.57 Notre Dame: 29.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.7 Notre Dame: 24.3

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 29.015 #3
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 26.69 #6
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.21 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1060.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3 #5
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #7
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 45
Boise State 19

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 39
Boise State 38

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 34
Boise State 21

Total Points: 55

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Notre Dame	28	Boise State	7	Notre Dame -21.5	Boise State	63.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	1	0	0 Overs
Boise State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#66) BSU at (#3) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	ND
Net PPPPPP	#69	#2
Power RatePwr	#66	#3
SP+SP+	#55	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#86	#5
OffenseOff	#81	#5
DefenseDef	#77	#5
Spec TeamsST	#54	#23
TalentTal	#77	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#8

Boise State Notes(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report

Notre Dame Notes(11/16) Killed Pitt, 10-2 finish likely. Get healthy for CFP?
(11/4) Huge issues at K, missed 2 XP, short FG vs BC
(10/20) OG Billy Schrauth out until at least Pitt/Cuse (3 OL)
(10/18) 300 yds rush vs USC, Pass Def torched, huge Win
(10/16) DL G Rubio out vs SC (best DT) & L Thomas (depth)
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
Notre Dame Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	#52	#1
Perf GradePerf	#81	#5
SuccessSuc	#77	#13
ExplosiveExp	#47	#85
PPAPPA	#44	#12
PowerPwr	#68	#2
SP+SP+	#56	#11
Pts POPPO	#73	#6
HavocHav	#49	#19

Boise State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#23	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#20
Run ExplRExp	#55	#32
PPAExp	#46	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#39	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#39
Stuff RateStuff	#33	#74
TackleTak	-	#9

Boise State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#93
PPAExp	#62	#8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#25
F7 HavocF7	#33	#77
DB HavocDB	#66	#3

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	#84	#24
Perf GradePerf	#5	#77
SuccessSuc	#10	#14
ExplosiveExp	#3	#129
PPAPPA	#4	#53
PowerPwr	#6	#60
SP+SP+	#7	#47
Pts POPPO	#6	#111
HavocHav	#36	#50

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#5	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#50
Run ExplRExp	#8	#134
PPAExp	#11	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#88
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#61
TackleTak	-	#134

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#116
PPAExp	#10	#7
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#82
F7 HavocF7	#36	#28
DB HavocDB	#35	#81

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Notre Dame -21.5 (63.5)
Notre Dame won vs Boise State this year (28-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	176	302	58%	2333	18	9	7.7
Max Cutforth	95	167	57%	1059	4	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Riley	195	1125	10	5.8	77
Sire Gaines	161	812	8	5.0	46
Malik Sherrod (Tr)	85	418	4	4.9	44
Maddux Madsen	57	81	4	1.4	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Latrell Caples	51	616	3	12.1	34
Chris Marshall	30	574	2	19.1	46
Chase Penry	30	394	1	13.1	46
Matt Lauter	37	330	2	8.9	20

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	105	9	0	1	3
Marco Notarainni	77	6	3	8	2
Zion Washington	66	3	1	1	2
Boen Phelps	66	4	1	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Virgin	56	13	6	12
Braxton Fely	24	7	6	5
Sterling Lane	6	3	3	1
Malakai Williams (Tr)	11	4	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Earby	60	2	1	0	9
Sherrod Smith	14	1	0	0	6
Jaden Mickey (Tr)	38	7	1	1	5

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
C.J. Carr	195	293	67%	2741	24	6	9.4
Kenny Minchey	20	26	77%	196	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	199	1372	18	6.9	94
Jadarian Price	113	674	11	6.0	58
Aneyas Williams	24	224	5	9.3	54
Kenny Minchey	7	84	1	12.0	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Faison	49	640	4	13.1	54
Malachi Fields (Tr)	36	630	5	17.5	66
Eli Raridon	32	482	0	15.1	65
Will Pauling (Tr)	26	381	6	14.7	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5
Jaiden Ausberry	51	4	2	5	0
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boubacar Traore	37	10	7	8	0
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2
Jaylen Sneed	35	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Gray	18	1	0	0	10
Leonard Moore	31	0	0	0	7
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5