Boise State at Notre Dame - 2025 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#21)

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -21.5 (63.5) (-1600) Open: -16.5
Notre Dame 28 - Boise State: 7

Broncos (4 - 2) (5 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (21 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

ND is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -28 (SP+ ND -16)
Projected Score: BSU: 18 - ND: 46 (64)
ND Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 1520 miles, 2 hrs behind

Fighting Irish (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 21 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Boise State at South Florida	-8.5	63.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Fri 9/5	Boise State vs Eastern Washington	-33.5	60.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Boise State at Air Force	-10.5	51.5	W 49 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Boise State vs App State	-16.5	59.5	W 47 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Boise State at Notre Dame	+21.5	63.5	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-14.5	58.5	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Boise State vs UNLV	-12.5	62.5
Fri 10/24	Boise State at Nevada	-17
Sat 11/1	Boise State vs Fresno State	-10
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Boise State at San Diego State	+11
Sat 11/22	Boise State vs Colorado State	-8
Fri 11/28	Boise State at Utah State	-8

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Notre Dame at Miami	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Notre Dame vs Texas A&M	-7.5	48.5	L 40 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-24.5	51.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Notre Dame at Arkansas	-5.5	64.5	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Notre Dame vs Boise State	-21.5	63.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/11	Notre Dame vs NC State	-23.5	59.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Notre Dame vs USC	-9.5	61.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Notre Dame at Boston College	-26.5
Sat 11/8	Notre Dame vs Navy	-24.5
Sat 11/15	Notre Dame at Pittsburgh	-9.5
Sat 11/22	Notre Dame vs Syracuse	-30.5
Sat 11/29	Notre Dame at Stanford	-30.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#45 (.25)	44% (64)	33.7	44% (63)	3.02 (65)	192	43% (63)	275	3.52 (105)	#69 (.16)	35% (14)	25.3	37% (24)	34% (16)	4.85 (132)	72.7	1.3	1.7
ND	#13 (.35)	50% (18)	40	49% (27)	3.06 (56)	175	51% (16)	293	5.05 (14)	#64 (.16)	41% (69)	20.8	43% (82)	40% (62)	3.36 (37)	50	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	6	33.7	21	43.6%	3.52	1.3	24	466	192	275	4.9	50%	50%	44%	43%	15%	.25
ND Defense	6	20.8	21.3	41.3%	3.36	2	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	43%	40%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	6	25.3	33	35.5%	4.85	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	37%	34%	17%	.16
ND Offense	6	40	40	49.9%	5.05	1	24	468	175	293	5	53%	47%	49%	51%	14%	.35

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	6	33:49	24.2	46%	55%	8.5	72.7	1.3	1.7	5.8	2.2	2	32.4
Notre Dame	6	29:54	23.7	49%	36%	5.8	50	1	2	3.5	2.3	2	31.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	6	50% (78)	44% (63)	39.3	191.7	4.9	13 (35)	.19 (44)	3.02 (65)	78% (38)	10% (80)	1.08 (31)
ND Defense	6	44% (16)	43% (82)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.16 (117)	68% (52)	6% (134)	0.9 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	6	54% (106)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	.15 (102)	2.73 (48)	57% (9)	12% (30)	1.29 (133)
ND Offense	6	53% (42)	49% (27)	34.8	174.7	5	17 (16)	.23 (31)	3.06 (56)	54% (134)	9% (71)	1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	6	50% (59)	43% (63)	21.5	35.2	274.5	7.8	12.8	12 (39)	5 (77)	.31 (55)	1.6 (37)	34% (108)	33% (56)	.32 (71)	5% (61)	1.8 (108)
ND Defense	6	56% (121)	40% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (2)	.19 (52)	1.5 (69)	34% (38)	26% (31)	.23 (51)	8% (10)	2 (82)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	6	46% (34)	34% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (23)	.18 (47)	1.9 (131)	37% (13)	30% (82)	.31 (81)	6% (80)	2.2 (121)
ND Offense	6	47% (90)	51% (16)	19	28	292.8	10.5	15.4	13 (27)	3 (26)	.5 (14)	1.7 (18)	29% (36)	45% (3)	.62 (9)	5% (52)	1.8 (109)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: -3.46 #87
Boise State's Offense Rating: 8.63 #83
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.09 #89
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #55
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #43
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #64

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: -3.46 Notre Dame: 28.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 5.1 Notre Dame: 21.3

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 28.64 #10
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 29.14 #8
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.15 #27
2025 Talent Rating: 1072.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 58 #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.3 #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #23

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 833
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 46
Boise State 18

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 38
Boise State 32

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 35
Boise State 24

Total Points: 59

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense at Home: 40
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Notre Dame	28	Boise State	7	Notre Dame -21.5	Boise State	63.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	1	0	0 Overs
Boise State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#87) BSU at (#10) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	ND
Power RatePwr	#87	#10
SP+SP+	#55	#9
Perf GradeGrade	#63	#18
OffenseOff	#66	#10
DefenseDef	#63	#45
Spec TeamsST	#69	#44
TalentTal	#77	#6
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#8

Boise State Notes
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon

Notre Dame Notes
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
(9/15) Pass Def is awful. DB depth is huge issue
(9/15) DL a big issue, no pass rush w/ all these DEs?
(8/31) Carr is a baller, but OL is not good. Def leaked
(8/19) QB1 will be CJ Carr, beat Kenny Minchey

Boise State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ND Def
Perf GradePerf	#66	#45
SuccessSuc	#64	#69
ExplosiveExp	#24	#60
PPAPPA	#45	#64
PowerPwr	#83	#27
SP+SP+	#43	#23
Pts POPPO	#105	#37
HavocHav	#68	#103

Boise State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#17	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#82
Run ExplRExp	#31	#43
PPAExp	#44	#93
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#86	#123
TackleTak	-	#28

Boise State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#63	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#69
PPAExp	#55	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#73
F7 HavocF7	#80	#134
DB HavocDB	#61	#10

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	BSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#63
SuccessSuc	#18	#14
ExplosiveExp	#16	#134
PPAPPA	#13	#69
PowerPwr	#8	#89
SP+SP+	#4	#64
Pts POPPO	#14	#132
HavocHav	#58	#48

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#14	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#24
Run ExplRExp	#34	#133
PPAExp	#31	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#61
TackleTak	-	#123

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#12	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#131
PPAExp	#14	#47
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#44
F7 HavocF7	#71	#30
DB HavocDB	#52	#80

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Notre Dame -21.5 (63.5)
Notre Dame won vs Boise State this year (28-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	122	200	61%	1570	11	5	7.9
Max Cutforth	6	10	60%	67	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Riley	71	494	5	7.0	77
Sire Gaines	69	349	3	5.1	46
Malik Sherrod (Tr)	44	220	2	5.0	40
Maddux Madsen	37	38	2	1.0	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Marshall	19	344	1	18.1	46
Ben Ford	20	299	5	15.0	60
Latrell Caples	21	292	2	13.9	34
Matt Lauter	17	179	1	10.5	20

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	42	6	0	0	1
Marco Notarainni	35	2	0	5	0
Zion Washington	31	2	0	0	1
Jeremiah Earby	30	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Braxton Fely	14	5	5	0
Jayden Virgin	27	6	3	5
Malakai Williams (Tr)	5	2	2	5
Dion Washington (Tr)	9	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jeremiah Earby	30	2	1	3
A'Marion McCoy	15	2	0	2
Jaden Mickey (Tr)	9	1	0	2

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
C.J. Carr	105	158	67%	1622	13	3	10.3
Kenny Minchey	8	9	89%	95	0	0	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	100	530	8	5.3	46
Jadarian Price	63	422	7	6.7	49
Nolan James Jr.	8	33	0	4.1	15
Aneyas Williams	6	30	1	5.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Faison	29	376	2	13.0	48
Eli Raridon	20	342	0	17.1	65
Malachi Fields (Tr)	18	339	2	18.8	66
Will Pauling (Tr)	13	243	3	18.7	42

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drayk Bowen	31	1	1	2	0
Adon Shuler	29	0	0	0	2
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	28	2	1	1	1
Jaiden Ausberry	26	1	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Boubacar Traore	24	6	5	3
Jaylen Sneed	14	3	2	0
Drayk Bowen	31	1	1	2
Jordan Botelho	11	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Christian Gray	11	0	6
Mark Zackery IV	7	1	2
Adon Shuler	29	0	2