Miami at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo (#12)Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels(#6)Ole Miss logo
Thursday, January 8th 2026 (7:30 PM EST)
State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ  (CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)

 
Hurricanes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 13 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Miami -0  (SP+ MISS -1)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 25 - MISS: 25 (49)
MIAMI Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 803 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Golding (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 20 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss+2.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami-2.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 4, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#30 (.24)47% (18)31.646% (45)3.09 (41)14150% (10)2444.47 (20)#9 (.04)36% (12)13.137% (16)35% (15)2.42 (3)55.90.91.6
MISS#12 (.32)48% (17)37.645% (58)2.77 (104)17251% (5)2904.71 (9)#51 (.12)40% (49)20.444% (82)37% (24)2.94 (16)50.30.90.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1431.62647.5%4.470.9213851412444.350%48%46%50%12%.24
MISS Defense1420.415.639.8%2.940.9 - - - - - 50%49%44%37%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1413.11535.8%2.421.6 - - - - - 43%55%37%35%20%.04
MISS Offense1437.63947.9%4.710.9244621722904.652%47%45%51%13%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1430:4620.646%61%6.855.90.91.66.32.9231.1
Ole Miss1427:2123.945%69%5.450.30.90.94.91.9028.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1450% (63)46% (45)32.51414.323 (40).07 (86)3.09 (41)86% (2)6% (3)0.75 (134)
MISS Defense1450% (67)44% (82) - - - - .2 (120)3.12 (105)67% (42)10% (61)1.1 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1443% (8)37% (16) - - - - -.01 (14)2.53 (13)72% (74)13% (8)0.98 (81)
MISS Offense1452% (46)45% (58)37.2171.84.636 (11).15 (48)2.77 (104)80% (21)8% (29)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1448% (76)50% (10)2128.6243.88.511.628 (61)10 (108).47 (9)1.5 (77)25% (6)32% (52).37 (44)5% (44)2.1 (37)
MISS Defense1449% (76)37% (24) - - - - - - 8 (100).1 (14)1.5 (49)33% (47)28% (56).23 (46)7% (41)2.1 (90)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1455% (128)35% (15) - - - - - - 14 (55).12 (20)1.5 (43)38% (4)28% (51).23 (50)7% (14)1.9 (26)
MISS Offense1447% (84)51% (5)20.531.3290.19.314.223 (50)8 (60).49 (6)1.6 (50)28% (22)39% (6).6 (4)6% (50)2.2 (14)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 27.78  #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.69  #10
Miami's Defense Rating: -9.44  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55%  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8  #8
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #10

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 27.78   Ole Miss: 24.66

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.8   Ole Miss: 22.8




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 24.66  #8
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 21.98  #16
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -5.48  #12
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.8  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #8
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 13.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 25
Ole Miss 25


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 25
Ole Miss 24

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 26
Miami 23

Total Points: 49
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss000 Overs
Miami000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

Miami Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14
2025CFP 1st Round Miami vs Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3
2024Tarts Bowl Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42
2023Pinstripe Bowl Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31
2020It Bowl Miami vs Oklahoma State+2.558.5L 34 - 37
2019Independence Bowl Miami vs Louisiana Tech-7.049.5L 0 - 14
Ole Miss Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Quarterfinal Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34
2025CFP 1st Round Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10
2024Gator Bowl Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20
2023Peach Bowl Ole Miss vs Penn State+5.553.0W 38 - 25
2022Texas Bowl Ole Miss vs Texas Tech-4.573.0L 25 - 42
2021Sugar Bowl Ole Miss vs Baylor-1.060.5L 7 - 21
2020Outback Bowl Ole Miss vs Indiana+6.566.5W 26 - 20
  
(#5) MIAMI at (#8) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMIMISS
Power RatePwr #5 #8
SP+SP+ #8 #7
Perf GradeGrade #4 #17
OffenseOff #6 #22
DefenseDef #3 #37
Spec TeamsST #89 #24
TalentTal #16 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #18
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #6 #37
SuccessSuc #18 #49
ExplosiveExp #128 #85
PPAPPA #30 #51
PowerPwr #10 #12
SP+SP+ #18 #17
Pts POPPO #20 #16
HavocHav #9 #53
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #30 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #45 #82
Run ExplRExp #134 #125
PPAExp #86 #120
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #41 #105
Stuff RateStuff #18 #86
TackleTak -  #31
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #21 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #24
Pass ExplPExl #77 #49
PPAExp #9 #14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #2 #89
F7 HavocF7 #3 #61
DB HavocDB #44 #41
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffMIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf #22 #3
SuccessSuc #17 #12
ExplosiveExp #38 #70
PPAPPA #12 #9
PowerPwr #16 #6
SP+SP+ #8 #10
Pts POPPO #9 #3
HavocHav #36 #7
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #15 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #16
Run ExplRExp #61 #81
PPAExp #48 #14
Run BlockR Blk #101 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #13
Stuff RateStuff #109 #27
TackleTak -  #115
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #32 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #5 #15
Pass ExplPExl #50 #43
PPAExp #6 #20
Pass Block/RushP Blk #26 #1
F7 HavocF7 #29 #8
DB HavocDB #50 #14
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in State Farm Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)27737374%317526108.5
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.158857105.456
CharMar Brown (Tr)10037553.813
Girard Pringle Jr.5936346.238
Jordan Lyle3510813.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney89992811.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)44590113.461
C.J. Daniels (Tr)37420711.447
Elija Lofton2220339.229

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)622104
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)574404
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Wesley Bissainthe532010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor5114950
Rueben Bain Jr.4212841
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Ahmad Moten248530
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)392117
Keionte Scott (Tr)5413565
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)533115

MISS's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)24136267%32981939.1
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)2731366215.059
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)12450684.141
Logan Diggs2917946.251
Deuce Alexander (Tr)1812306.831
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)48738315.455
Deuce Alexander (Tr)41664216.288
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)43612614.275
Dae'Quan Wright34553416.364

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery835112
Suntarine Perkins6892114
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kamarion Franklin5774142
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)34128131
William Echoles579563
Kamarion Franklin5774142
Zxavian Harris468362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)501015
Suntarine Perkins6892114