Miami at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo   Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels  Ole Miss logo
Thursday, January 8th 2026 (7:30 PM EST)
Miami -3 (52.5) (-170)  Open: 0.0
Miami 31 - Ole Miss: 27  (CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)

 
Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Miami -0  (SP+ MISS -3)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 26 - MISS: 26 (51)
MIAMI Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MIAMI Travel: 1982 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Rebels (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27OY
Mon 1/19 Miami vs Indiana+7.546.5L 21 - 27OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.5L 27 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)30.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)14.838% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)36.944% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)21.135% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1330.92652.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4
MISS Defense1321.115.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1314.81538.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
MISS Offense1336.93947.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.83  #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47  #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55%  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 25.83   Ole Miss: 23.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.7   Ole Miss: 24.0




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 23.08  #9
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.65  #7
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 4.49  #21
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4  #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3  #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 26
Ole Miss 26


Projected Total Points: 51
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202501/08Ole Miss27Miami31Miami -3Miami52.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss001 Overs
Miami110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

Miami Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Nat'l Title Miami vs Indiana+7.546.5L 21 - 27
2025CFP Semifinal Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27
2025CFP Quarterfinal Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14
2025CFP 1st Round Miami vs Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3
2024Tarts Bowl Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42
2023Pinstripe Bowl Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31
2020It Bowl Miami vs Oklahoma State+2.558.5L 34 - 37
2019Independence Bowl Miami vs Louisiana Tech-7.049.5L 0 - 14
Ole Miss Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025CFP Semifinal Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.5L 27 - 31
2025CFP Quarterfinal Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34
2025CFP 1st Round Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10
2024Gator Bowl Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20
2023Peach Bowl Ole Miss vs Penn State+5.553.0W 38 - 25
2022Texas Bowl Ole Miss vs Texas Tech-4.573.0L 25 - 42
2021Sugar Bowl Ole Miss vs Baylor-1.060.5L 7 - 21
2020Outback Bowl Ole Miss vs Indiana+6.566.5W 26 - 20
  
(#6) MIAMI at (#9) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMIMISS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #9
SP+SP+ #9 #7
Perf GradeGrade #5 #12
OffenseOff #7 #9
DefenseDef #4 #41
Spec TeamsST #49 #18
TalentTal #16 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #18
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffMISS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #7 #41
SuccessSuc #1 #3
ExplosiveExp #22 #78
PPAPPA #2 #6
PowerPwr #13 #21
SP+SP+ #22 #20
Pts POPPO #2 #8
HavocHav #4 #1
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #21 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #6
Run ExplRExp #73 #23
PPAExp #5 #4
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #7
Stuff RateStuff #2 #19
TackleTak -  #81
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #32 #67
Pass SuccessPSuc #7 #13
Pass ExplPExl #26 #85
PPAExp #6 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #85
F7 HavocF7 #3 #1
DB HavocDB #15 #3
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffMIAMI Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #4
SuccessSuc #19 #26
ExplosiveExp #8 #130
PPAPPA #4 #69
PowerPwr #7 #6
SP+SP+ #3 #7
Pts POPPO #58 #91
HavocHav #54 #39
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #14 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #16
Run ExplRExp #26 #125
PPAExp #58 #49
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #16
Stuff RateStuff #92 #7
TackleTak -  #120
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #14 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #40
Pass ExplPExl #46 #113
PPAExp #3 #66
Pass Block/RushP Blk #35 #1
F7 HavocF7 #68 #43
DB HavocDB #54 #34
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in State Farm Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Miami 3.0 (52.5)
Miami won at Ole Miss this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Ole Miss last year (31-27)

  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)33846872%381330128.1
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown (Tr)12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)57746213.161
C.J. Daniels (Tr)50557711.147
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)754406
Wesley Bissainthe713110
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)683115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor63181360
Rueben Bain Jr.54161051
Keionte Scott (Tr)6413585
Ahmad Moten319540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)29444566%39372238.8
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)3061567245.173
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)13352784.041
Logan Diggs3318945.751
Damien Taylor (Tr)2813024.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)61934415.355
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)55811614.775
Deuce Alexander (Tr)44684215.588
Cayden Lee44635314.462

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery986212
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
Kamarion Franklin6995143
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Kamarion Franklin6995143
William Echoles6812565
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
William Echoles6812565
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)551015