Georgia Southern at App State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Georgia Southern Eagles vs App State Mountaineers

Monday, December 29th 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Georgia Southern -10 (58.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Georgia Southern 29 - App State: 10 (JLab Birmingham Bowl)

Eagles (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Georgia Southern -4.5 (SP+ GASO -2)
Projected Score: GASO: 31 - APP: 26 (57)
GASO Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
GASO Travel: 301 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Mountaineers (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
GASO Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia Southern at Fresno State	+2.5	54.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia Southern at USC	+29.0	61.5	L 20 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State	-3.0	59.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Georgia Southern vs Maine	-22.0	57.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Georgia Southern at James Madison	+14.5	54.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	-6.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Georgia Southern at Arkansas State	-1.5	59.5	L 24 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	Georgia Southern at App State	+4.5	62.5	W 25 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	-3.0	59.5	W 45 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion	+10.0	62.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia Southern at Marshall	+10.5	61.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Mon 12/29	Georgia Southern vs App State	-10.0	58.5	W 29 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

App State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	App State vs Charlotte	-8.5	53.5	W 34 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/6	App State vs Lindenwood	-31.5	56.0	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/13	App State at Southern Miss	-3.0	55.5	L 22 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	App State at Boise State	+16.5	59.5	L 14 - 47	O	N
Sat 10/4	App State vs Oregon State	-1.5	53.5	W 27 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/11	App State at Georgia State	-3.0	55.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/18	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-10.5	48.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/25	App State at Old Dominion	+12.5	60.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	App State vs Georgia Southern	-4.5	62.5	L 23 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/15	App State at James Madison	+21.0	53.5	L 10 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/22	App State vs Marshall	+3.5	57.5	W 26 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/29	App State vs Arkansas State	-1.0	54.5	L 29 - 30	O	N
Mon 12/29	App State vs Georgia Southern	+10.0	58.5	L 10 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)	27.9	46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)	32.3	47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	24.2	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	29.8	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	27.9	19.5	42.9%	4.57	1.7	22	366	128	238	3.8	46%	53%	46%	40%	17%	.19
APP Defense	11	29.8	26.7	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	32.3	35.3	45.5%	3.81	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	47%	44%	14%	.23
APP Offense	11	24.2	27	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	30:09	21.8	45%	75%	5.6	48.3	1.7	1.5	4.6	1.6	1	27.7
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	46% (95)	46% (44)	33.8	128.2	3.8	24 (45)	.15 (57)	2.84 (101)	78% (36)	11% (94)	0.99 (57)
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	47% (27)	47% (109)	-	-	-	-	.18 (99)	3.1 (87)	72% (60)	8% (106)	1 (79)
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	53% (39)	40% (85)	22.2	34.2	237.8	7	10.7	21 (51)	11 (72)	.23 (86)	1.5 (84)	31% (60)	33% (48)	.39 (43)	6% (65)	2 (90)
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	53% (108)	44% (102)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (97)	1.5 (52)	31% (89)	32% (94)	.35 (89)	5% (100)	2 (54)
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -8.32 #93
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 15.06 #56
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 23.38 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #103
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -8.32 App State: -13.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -9.4 App State: -11.4

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -13.29 #120
App State's Offense Rating: 4.88 #119
App State's Defense Rating: 20.06 #109
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #111
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia Southern 31
App State 26

Projected Total Points: 57

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/06	App State	23	Georgia Southern	25	App State -4.5	Georgia Southern	62.5	Under
2025	12/29	App State	10	Georgia Southern	29	Georgia Southern -10	Georgia Southern	58.5	Under
2024	11/30	Georgia Southern	29	App State	20	Georgia Southern -2.5	Georgia Southern	60.5	Under
2023	11/25	App State	55	Georgia Southern	27	Appalachian State -7.5	App State	62.5	Over
2022	11/26	Georgia Southern	51	App State	48	Appalachian State -6.5	Georgia Southern	66.0	Over
2021	11/27	App State	27	Georgia Southern	3	Appalachian State -24.5	Georgia Southern	55.0	Under
2020	12/12	Georgia Southern	26	App State	34	Appalachian State -9	Georgia Southern	45.0	Over
2019	10/31	App State	21	Georgia Southern	24	Appalachian State -15	Georgia Southern	44.5	Over
2018	10/25	Georgia Southern	34	App State	14	Appalachian State -11	Georgia Southern	47.5	Over
2017	11/09	App State	27	Georgia Southern	6	Appalachian State -17.5	App State	51.5	Under
2016	10/27	Georgia Southern	10	App State	34	Appalachian State -4	App State	46.5	Under
2015	10/22	App State	31	Georgia Southern	13	Appalachian State -6	App State	60.0	Under
2014	09/25	Georgia Southern	34	App State	14	Georgia Southern -17	Georgia Southern	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	6	4	5 Overs
Georgia Southern	7	9	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 5	8 - 5	5 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 8	5 - 8	2 - 3	3 - 5

Georgia Southern Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Birmingham Bowl	Georgia Southern vs App State	-10.0	58.5	W 29 - 10
2024	Orleans Bowl	Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston	-3.5	48.0	L 26 - 31
2023	Beach Bowl	Georgia Southern vs Ohio	-1.5	48.5	L 21 - 41
2022	Camellia Bowl	Georgia Southern vs Buffalo	-6.0	67.0	L 21 - 23
2020	Orleans Bowl	Georgia Southern vs Louisiana Tech	-7.0	48.0	W 38 - 3
2019	Cure Bowl	Georgia Southern vs Liberty	-5.0	59.0	L 16 - 23

App State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Birmingham Bowl	App State vs Georgia Southern	+10.0	58.5	L 10 - 29
2023	Cure Bowl	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9
2021	Raton Bowl	App State vs Western Kentucky	-3.0	67.0	L 38 - 59
2020	Beach Bowl	App State vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 56 - 28
2019	Orleans Bowl	App State vs UAB	-17.5	48.0	W 31 - 17

(#93) GASO at (#120) APP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	APP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#93	#120
SP+SP+	#103	#111
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#94
OffenseOff	#58	#100
DefenseDef	#131	#54
Spec TeamsST	#118	#77
TalentTal	#99	#84
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#101

Georgia Southern Notes(10/22) DL is statistically bottom 5 in CFB, line yds & havoc
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off Avg
(10/9) French 3 INT, team 12 flags, comeback short vs USM
(8/25) Will stay out West between @ Fresno & USC
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
Georgia Southern Injury Report

App State Notes(10/19) Horrific home loss to C Car, Run Def mauled 240+
(10/19) So QB JJ Kohl taken over for Swann (was injured)
(9/22) App has lost 5 straight road games into Boise St
(8/30) Swann great vs Char, Run game decent, Def imp
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
App State Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	APP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#54
SuccessSuc	#65	#127
ExplosiveExp	#77	#53
PPAPPA	#68	#123
PowerPwr	#56	#109
SP+SP+	#59	#122
Pts POPPO	#17	#132
HavocHav	#87	#132

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#51	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#130
Run ExplRExp	#57	#94
PPAExp	#57	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#90	-
OL YdsOLY	#101	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#113
TackleTak	-	#48

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#91
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#46
PPAExp	#86	#119
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#12	#17
F7 HavocF7	#94	#89
DB HavocDB	#65	#134

App State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GASO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#100	#131
SuccessSuc	#60	#108
ExplosiveExp	#28	#70
PPAPPA	#57	#105
PowerPwr	#119	#129
SP+SP+	#100	#130
Pts POPPO	#71	#71
HavocHav	#66	#110

App State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#82	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#109
Run ExplRExp	#104	#79
PPAExp	#89	#99
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#87
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#52
TackleTak	-	#59

App State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	APP Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#97	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#62	#102
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#52
PPAExp	#41	#97
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#117	#134
F7 HavocF7	#15	#106
DB HavocDB	#130	#100

Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Protective Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Georgia Southern 10.0 (58.5)
Georgia Southern won at App State this year (29-10)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Southern beat App State last year (29-10)
Georgia Southern beat App State in 2024 (29-20)
App State beat Georgia Southern in 2023 (55-27)

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	249	390	64%	2924	20	8	7.5
Turner Helton (Tr)	14	26	54%	74	1	0	2.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
OJ Arnold	144	1037	5	7.2	62
JC French	133	315	6	2.4	21
David Mbadinga	49	196	1	4.0	16
Weston Bryan	31	111	3	3.6	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camden Brown (Tr)	65	1079	14	16.6	73
Marcus Sanders Jr.	50	797	5	15.9	52
Dalen Cobb	57	506	3	8.9	43
OJ Arnold	21	212	1	10.1	41

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jusfin Meyers	90	1	1	5
Brendan Harrington (Tr)	85	2	1	3
Brandon Tyson (Tr)	84	3	6	2
Ayden Jackson	74	4	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Stroud	33	16	7	6	2
Caleb Moore (Tr)	27	4	2	2	1
Devin Collier	24	1	1	0	0
CJ Allen	16	2	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tracy Hill Jr.	41	4	1	0	7
Jusfin Meyers	90	1	0	1	5
Elijah McDowell	9	0	0	0	4

APP's OC Vacant (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
J.J. Kohl (Tr)	133	216	62%	1465	12	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)	174	868	4	5.0	39
Jaquari Lewis	140	618	6	4.4	27
Matthew Wilson	12	110	1	9.2	28
J.J. Kohl (Tr)	30	50	1	1.7	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalton Stroman	35	665	4	19.0	72
Jaden Barnes (Tr)	55	608	7	11.1	59
Davion Dozier (Tr)	20	448	5	22.4	68
Izayah Cummings (Tr)	37	374	1	10.1	30

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colton Phares	101	10	2	2	3
DJ Burks	73	2	0	0	5
Zyeir Gamble	72	4	0	0	4
Kyle Arnholt	56	1	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne	43	7	5	5	2
Aiden Benton	38	5	5	8	0
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)	22	4	4	3	2
Thomas Davis	25	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Ethan Johnson	44	2	11
Emory Floyd Jr. (Tr)	49	1	5
DJ Burks	73	2	5