Ole Miss at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Friday, November 28th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -7.5 (62.5) (-279)  Open: -13.5 | 59.5
Ole Miss 38 - Mississippi State: 19  (SEC)

 
Rebels (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (34 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
MISS coming off BYE
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Ole Miss -13  (SP+ MISS -20)

Projected Score: MISS: 37 - MSST: 24 (62)
MISS Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 76 miles
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.5L 27 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)36.944% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)21.135% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1336.934.347.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34
MSST Defense1230.227.950.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1321.127.835.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
MSST Offense1230.433.939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 22.16  #9
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.65  #7
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 4.49  #21
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4  #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3  #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 22.16   Mississippi State: 10.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.0   Mississippi State: 4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 10.25  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #43
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 37
Mississippi State 24


Projected Total Points: 62
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28Mississippi State19Ole Miss38Ole Miss -7.5Ole Miss62.5Under
202411/29Ole Miss26Mississippi State14Ole Miss -26.5Mississippi State63.5Under
202311/23Mississippi State7Ole Miss17Ole Miss -11Mississippi State56.0Under
202211/24Ole Miss22Mississippi State24Ole Miss -2.5Mississippi State63.0Under
202111/25Mississippi State21Ole Miss31Mississippi State -2.5Ole Miss65.0Under
202011/28Ole Miss31Mississippi State24Ole Miss -10Mississippi State70.0Under
201911/28Mississippi State21Ole Miss20Mississippi State -1Push59.0Under
201811/22Ole Miss3Mississippi State35Mississippi State -12.5Mississippi State61.0Under
201711/23Mississippi State28Ole Miss31Mississippi State -14Ole Miss64.5Under
201611/26Ole Miss20Mississippi State55Ole Miss -8Mississippi State67.5Over
201511/28Mississippi State27Ole Miss38Ole Miss -2Ole Miss65.5Under
201411/29Ole Miss31Mississippi State17Mississippi State -2.5Ole Miss51.5Under
201311/28Mississippi State17Ole Miss10Ole Miss -3Mississippi State0
201211/24Ole Miss41Mississippi State24
201111/26Mississippi State31Ole Miss3
201011/27Ole Miss23Mississippi State31
200911/28Mississippi State41Ole Miss27
200811/28Ole Miss45Mississippi State0
200711/23Mississippi State17Ole Miss14
200611/25Ole Miss20Mississippi State17
200511/26Mississippi State35Ole Miss14
200411/27Ole Miss20Mississippi State3
200311/27Mississippi State0Ole Miss31
200111/22Mississippi State36Ole Miss28
200011/22Ole Miss45Mississippi State30
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1171 Overs
Ole Miss14511 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 103 - 90 - 63 - 3
Road Teams10 - 159 - 33 - 36 - 0

(#9) MISS at (#38) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMISSMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #9 #38
SP+SP+ #7 #58
Perf GradeGrade #12 #105
OffenseOff #9 #84
DefenseDef #41 #119
Spec TeamsST #18 #77
TalentTal #33 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #27
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #119
SuccessSuc #19 #133
ExplosiveExp #8 #18
PPAPPA #4 #130
PowerPwr #7 #43
SP+SP+ #3 #84
Pts POPPO #58 #113
HavocHav #54 #134
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #14 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #108
Run ExplRExp #26 #13
PPAExp #58 #80
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #113
Stuff RateStuff #92 #114
TackleTak -  #96
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #14 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #134
Pass ExplPExl #46 #48
PPAExp #3 #134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #35 #132
F7 HavocF7 #68 #133
DB HavocDB #54 #123
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffMISS Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #41
SuccessSuc #109 #3
ExplosiveExp #6 #78
PPAPPA #78 #6
PowerPwr #24 #21
SP+SP+ #39 #20
Pts POPPO #86 #8
HavocHav #127 #1
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #68 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #6
Run ExplRExp #28 #23
PPAExp #92 #4
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #7
Stuff RateStuff #44 #19
TackleTak -  #81
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #43 #67
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #13
Pass ExplPExl #18 #85
PPAExp #76 #20
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #85
F7 HavocF7 #122 #1
DB HavocDB #116 #3
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 48°
Rematch from Week 14
Ole Miss 7.5 (62.5)
Ole Miss won at Mississippi State this year (38-19)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (38-19)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2024 (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)

  
MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)29444566%39372238.8
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)3061567245.173
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)13352784.041
Logan Diggs3318945.751
Damien Taylor (Tr)2813024.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)61934415.355
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)55811614.775
Deuce Alexander (Tr)44684215.588
Cayden Lee44635314.462

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery986212
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
Kamarion Franklin6995143
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Kamarion Franklin6995143
William Echoles6812565
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
William Echoles6812565
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)551015

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014