Ole Miss at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ole Miss logo Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Friday, November 28th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS  (SEC)

 
Rebels (6 - 0) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 38 - 19 (30 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
MISS coming off BYE
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Ole Miss -8  (SP+ MISS -11)

Projected Score: MISS: 29 - MSST: 21 (49)
MISS Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
MISS Travel: 76 miles
Bulldogs (4 - 2) (5 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 34 - 20 (40 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#77)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.554.5
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+4
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-16
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-48.5
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-11
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-8

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+7.5
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas-2.5
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+8.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+14.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+8

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#26 (.31)50% (16)37.849% (29)2.8 (87)20551% (8)3114.74 (23)#63 (.16)41% (64)19.247% (114)35% (18)3.28 (31)73.81.30.7
MSST#43 (.26)47% (32)33.753% (9)3.22 (34)18441% (89)2125.13 (8)#56 (.14)41% (61)19.843% (88)37% (34)3.52 (52)77.211.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense637.83050%4.741.3265162053114.857%43%49%51%14%.31
MSST Defense619.817.840.7%3.521.8 - - - - - 56%44%43%37%15%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense619.22340.8%3.280.7 - - - - - 50%50%47%35%15%.16
MSST Offense633.739.847.4%5.131203961842124.556%44%53%41%16%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss628:2325.751%83%7.873.81.30.74.21.5027.2
Mississippi State627:4620.344%70%8.377.211.84.31.3031.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense657% (25)49% (29)42.7205.34.816 (20).13 (66)2.8 (87)83% (18)8% (26)0.83 (117)
MSST Defense656% (116)43% (88) - - - - .06 (56)3.2 (122)69% (59)8% (109)0.81 (20)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense650% (71)47% (114) - - - - .25 (126)3.31 (128)74% (83)8% (117)1.09 (110)
MSST Offense656% (31)53% (9)40.8183.84.516 (20).21 (38)3.22 (34)73% (66)10% (84)0.92 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense643% (110)51% (8)19.8313111015.711 (49)5 (77).58 (6)1.7 (24)26% (19)41% (6).56 (18)6% (74)2 (77)
MSST Defense644% (21)37% (34) - - - - - - 8 (12).25 (70)1.7 (116)31% (90)24% (24).11 (22)7% (35)1.9 (36)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense650% (70)35% (18) - - - - - - 3 (93).07 (18)1.5 (42)34% (32)29% (68).27 (65)8% (21)2 (84)
MSST Offense644% (106)41% (89)17.326.2211.78.112.210 (60)4 (50).32 (48)1.8 (14)32% (87)32% (61).44 (39)6% (87)2.4 (10)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 28.80  #12
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.40  #14
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -2.40  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.5  #6
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #13
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.6  #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 28.80   Mississippi State: 17.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 21.5   Mississippi State: 10.7




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 17.3  #32
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 22.84  #23
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 3.94  #43
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.7  #37
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3  #40

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 29
Mississippi State 21


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 26
Ole Miss 18

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 29
Ole Miss 26

Total Points: 55
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.8

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29Ole Miss26Mississippi State14Ole Miss -26.5Mississippi State63.5Under
202311/23Mississippi State7Ole Miss17Ole Miss -11Mississippi State56.0Under
202211/24Ole Miss22Mississippi State24Ole Miss -2.5Mississippi State63.0Under
202111/25Mississippi State21Ole Miss31Mississippi State -2.5Ole Miss65.0Under
202011/28Ole Miss31Mississippi State24Ole Miss -10Mississippi State70.0Under
201911/28Mississippi State21Ole Miss20Mississippi State -1Push59.0Under
201811/22Ole Miss3Mississippi State35Mississippi State -12.5Mississippi State61.0Under
201711/23Mississippi State28Ole Miss31Mississippi State -14Ole Miss64.5Under
201611/26Ole Miss20Mississippi State55Ole Miss -8Mississippi State67.5Over
201511/28Mississippi State27Ole Miss38Ole Miss -2Ole Miss65.5Under
201411/29Ole Miss31Mississippi State17Mississippi State -2.5Ole Miss51.5Under
201311/28Mississippi State17Ole Miss10Ole Miss -3Mississippi State0
201211/24Ole Miss41Mississippi State24
201111/26Mississippi State31Ole Miss3
201011/27Ole Miss23Mississippi State31
200911/28Mississippi State41Ole Miss27
200811/28Ole Miss45Mississippi State0
200711/23Mississippi State17Ole Miss14
200611/25Ole Miss20Mississippi State17
200511/26Mississippi State35Ole Miss14
200411/27Ole Miss20Mississippi State3
200311/27Mississippi State0Ole Miss31
200111/22Mississippi State36Ole Miss28
200011/22Ole Miss45Mississippi State30
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1171 Overs
Ole Miss13410 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 93 - 80 - 63 - 2
Road Teams9 - 158 - 32 - 36 - 0

(#12) MISS at (#32) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMISSMSST
Power RatePwr #12 #32
SP+SP+ #6 #37
Perf GradeGrade #41 #57
OffenseOff #36 #67
DefenseDef #57 #43
Spec TeamsST #98 #78
TalentTal #33 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #27

Ole Miss Notes
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
(6/2) WR has 5 players with 400+ yds, 4 are portals
(5/19) Kiffin & OC Weis Jr want to push tempo TY

Mississippi State Notes
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
Ole Miss on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMSST Def
Perf GradePerf #36 #43
SuccessSuc #16 #61
ExplosiveExp #81 #33
PPAPPA #26 #56
PowerPwr #14 #43
SP+SP+ #13 #40
Pts POPPO #23 #52
HavocHav #48 #88
Ole Miss Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #20 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #88
Run ExplRExp #117 #20
PPAExp #66 #56
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #122
Stuff RateStuff #92 #115
TackleTak -  #62
Ole Miss Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MISS OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #50 #27
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #34
Pass ExplPExl #24 #116
PPAExp #6 #70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #119
F7 HavocF7 #26 #109
DB HavocDB #74 #35
Mississippi State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatMSST OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #57
SuccessSuc #32 #64
ExplosiveExp #72 #64
PPAPPA #43 #63
PowerPwr #23 #25
SP+SP+ #39 #16
Pts POPPO #8 #31
HavocHav #83 #84
Mississippi State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
MSST OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #37 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #114
Run ExplRExp #86 #110
PPAExp #38 #126
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #128
Stuff RateStuff #26 #125
TackleTak -  #74
Mississippi State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatMSST OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #27 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #89 #18
Pass ExplPExl #14 #42
PPAExp #48 #18
Pass Block/RushP Blk #72 #92
F7 HavocF7 #84 #117
DB HavocDB #87 #21
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in 2022 (24-22)

  
MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)8513065%1286719.9
Austin Simmons345661%5804410.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)12658784.742
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)6128134.641
Logan Diggs1813837.751
Deuce Alexander (Tr)127806.531
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)17361221.255
Dae'Quan Wright16359322.464
Deuce Alexander (Tr)20349117.535
Cayden Lee15282218.862

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery372012
Jaden Yates (Tr)361000
Kamarion Franklin3132121
William Echoles285332
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
William Echoles285332
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)154270
Zxavian Harris255231
Kamarion Franklin3132121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)251004
Sage Ryan (Tr)140003
Nick Cull100003

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen10015067%1204948.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)2450%20005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)8446565.525
Davon Booth5926544.522
Xavier Gayten895211.925
Kamario Taylor107907.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)22378417.258
Anthony Evans III (Tr)31364211.757
Jordan Mosley7159122.775
Seydou Traore11127311.555

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)400004
Nic Mitchell301000
Isaac Smith280001
Jalen Smith (Tr)281000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)122231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Deonte Anderson81100
Kalvin Dinkins142100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)400004
Kelley Jones140004
DeAgo Brumfeld171013